Friday, April 1, 2011

Early Spring Heat Records March On; Outnumber Cold Records by Over 5 to 1

For related record temperature posts, see:
There will probably be a few stragglers yet to report, but the National Climatic Data Center figures show that daily high temperature records in the U.S. during March were over 5 times as numerous as low temperature records. The ratio of 5.30 to 1 exceeded even the massive 5.22 last September and was the highest since 6.07 in April 2010.

Every month in the last 13, except December, has now had more heat records than cold records. The cumulative ratio since January 2010 is 2.07. Thanks to the near-parity of records in January and February, the ratio for 2011 to date is only 1.47, but that is well ahead of the pace through the first quarter of last year.

Preliminary data through March 30 from NOAA show that the month was above average over much of the U.S., with the exception of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Plains.

Images (click to enlarge):
  • Monthly total number of daily high temperature, low temperature, and high minimum temperature records set in the U.S. for October 2010 through March 2011, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
  • Cumulative excess of heat records vs. cold records by month for 2010 and 2011 to date, data source as above
  • Preliminary March 2011 monthly temperature departure from climatological average from NOAA/NCEP via ESRL

Thursday, March 31, 2011

Near-Record April Fool's Snowfall Forecast
Update: Bangor Sets Record

Images (click to enlarge): Snowfall forecast for April 1 from The Weather Channel; Daily snowfall ending 8 am EDT, April 2, from National Weather Service/NOAA

April 2 Update: The final total of 14.4" at Bangor exceeded the April daily record (see list below) by 4". Other updated totals:
Gray ME     10.3"
Caribou ME 7.5"
The Lewiston Sun-Journal reported these additional amounts:
Hope     13.5"
Raymond 11"
Oxford 11"
Lewiston 10.3"
Turner 9"
Auburn 8"
6 PM Update: The preliminary snowfall total of 10.5" at Bangor exceeds the daily record of 8.5" in 1993 and is also a new all-time daily record for April; the old record was 10.4" on 4/13/1962.

Other daily totals:
Concord NH      4.9"           
Portland ME 5.9"
Gray ME 9.6"
Caribou ME 1.3"
Hartford CT 1.3"
Boston MA 0.9"
Worcester MA 3.8"
April 1, 1 PM update: Snowfall amounts appear to be on track with the forecast in Maine and New Hampshire, with 6"-8" reported by late morning. The National Weather Service reports:
STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS STILL LOOK ON TRACK TO REACH FORECAST  
LEVELS. REPORTS SO FAR HAVE INDICATED 6 TO 8 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
MIDCOAST AND FROM LEWISTON TO AUGUSTA MAY BE THE BIG WINNERS FROM
THIS STORM AS HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS
THERE. TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

BIGGEST THREAT FROM THIS HEAVY WET SNOW IS THE SLUSHY ACCUMULATION
ON ROADWAYS THAT IS VERY SLICK FOR DRIVING. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF
MANY ACCIDENTS THIS MORNING. ALSO HAVE SEEN ACCUMULATIONS ON TREES
LEADING TO LIMBS SNAPPING AND CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.
Original post:
With widespread snowfall amounts of 8"-12" forecast for interior northern New England, some April snow records may be exceeded. Here are some top 10 April 1-day snowfalls for New Hampshire and Maine from NOAA:
Concord NH
Years: 1903-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 15.0 4/13/1933
2 13.3 4/6/1982
3 8.6 4/10/1996
4 8.4 4/4/2003
5 8.3 4/8/1931
6 6.8 4/8/1956
7 6.6 4/12/1918
8 6.2 4/9/1907
9 5.7 4/1/1993
10 5.6 4/7/1971

Berlin NH
Years: 1886-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 14.0 4/13/1933
2 13.0 4/4/1975
3 11.0 4/7/1982
4 10.0 4/29/1987
5 9.0 4/5/2007, 4/2/1987
7 8.5 4/1/1922
8 8.0 4/28/2010, 4/11/1996, 4/10/1974

Portland ME
Years: 1871-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 15.0 4/10/1906
2 14.0 4/6/1982
3 12.5 4/2/1887
4 11.4 4/13/1933
5 11.1 4/1/1922
6 10.6 4/1/1993
7 8.7 4/7/1971
8 8.0 4/16/1904
9 7.6 4/2/1924
10 7.5 4/19/1925

Augusta ME
Years: 1948-2009
Rank Value Ending Date
1 10.7 4/10/1996
2 9.0 4/6/1982, 4/3/1975
4 6.7 4/16/1988
5 6.6 4/1/1985, 4/13/1972
7 6.2 4/29/1958, 4/9/1957
9 6.0 4/25/1962, 4/13/1962

Bangor ME
Years: 1926-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 10.4 4/13/1962
2 10.0 4/3/1975
3 9.4 4/7/1982
4 9.0 4/5/2007
5 8.5 4/1/1993
6 8.3 4/9/1957
7 7.4 4/3/1964
8 6.2 4/1/1985
9 6.0 4/4/2007, 4/9/1938

Caribou ME
Years: 1939-2011
Rank Value Ending Date
1 21.1 4/7/1982
2 10.3 4/13/2007
3 9.9 4/5/2007
4 9.6 4/5/1973
5 8.2 4/2/1970
6 7.6 4/10/1973
7 7.4 4/10/1996
8 7.2 4/11/1961
9 7.0 4/11/1990
10 6.4 4/18/1953

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.