Early Start to Tropical Season?

April 25 Update: NASA has a recap of the storm's demise (System 91L):
Fizzled Tropical Prospects: The Atlantic Low

April 21, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center has lowered the chances for tropical development from this system to 10%.

Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters agrees that the likelihood of development is low.

Original post:
Nearly 6 weeks before the traditional June 1 opening of tropical season in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center this afternoon issued a "Special Tropical Weather Outlook" for a low pressure area northeast of Puerto Rico:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER.  IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC.  ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. 

The NASA visible satellite image (click to enlarge) shows the storm at 17:45 UTC (1:45 pm EDT) today. The center of circulation is west of the largest area of clouds.

There has only been one named storm (or equivalent in the pre-naming era) in April since Atlantic tropical cyclone records began in 1851. That was Ana, which formed on April 18, 2003. There was one tropical cyclone in February 1952 and one in March 1908.

TWC Reports April Tornado Record

For an update on the April tornado record, see:
Record Heat Fuels Historic Tornado Outbreak

The Weather Channel's severe storm expert Dr. Greg Forbes is reporting that the preliminary total of 272 tornadoes through yesterday breaks the April record of 267 in 1974. The average number of April tornadoes is 163.

The graph (click to enlarge) from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center shows the cumulative annual total of 671 tornadoes to date outpacing the 2008 count of 631.

Record Late Snowfall in Green Bay

April 20 Update: The final daily snowfall total for Green Bay was 9.9".

For the ICE AGERS: Some temperature context for this event:

Despite the unseasonable cold of the last few days, the month of April so far has been within 0.7° of the long-term average in Green Bay. On the other hand, the month-to-date precipitation of 3.92" is slightly under 2.5 times the average amount. The season-to-date total of 7.00" is also almost double the average.

Here are some other month-to-date temperature departures from around the rest of Wisconsin:

Oshkosh    +1.5
Wausau     -0.6
La Crosse  +1.8
Madison    +2.6
Marquette  +1.6
Milwaukee  +0.5   

These daily snowfall records for April 19 were also set:

 CITY           SNOWFALL(IN)     OLD RECORD(IN)     YEAR

GREEN BAY(NWS)     9.9               1.5            1898
APPLETON           9.4               0.5            1924...1928
WISCONSIN RAPIDS   6.0               0.5            1982
STURGEON BAY       5.0               2.0            1925...1993
OSHKOSH            4.6               0.2            1953
STEVENS POINT      4.0               T              1914...1922
WAUSAU             1.9               1.5            1898
MERRILL            0.9               0.8            1928  

The top 5 seasonal snowfall totals at Green Bay are:

RANK    SNOWFALL       YEARS
1       147.7 INCHES   1887/88
2       103.6 INCHES   1889/90
3        92.4 INCHES   2010/11 [through April 19]
4        87.7 INCHES   2008/09
5        87.4 INCHES   2007/08  

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports that today's snowfall at Green Bay, Wisconsin has set a record for so late in the season:

AS OF 9 PM THIS EVENING...8.7 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN IN GREEN BAY.

THIS IS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOWFALL EVER SO LATE IN THE SEASON.

TODAY`S SNOWFALL BRINGS THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 91.2 INCHES...WHICH
IS THE THIRD GREATEST SEASONAL TOTAL EVER IN GREEN BAY...AND THE
MOST SINCE THE WINTER OF 1889-1890.  

This exceeds by half an inch the 8.2" which fell 4 days later in the month on April 23, 1910. Measurable snow has fallen as late as May 28, when 3" fell in 1947 at Green Bay.

Daily records were also set or tied at Milwaukee and Madison:

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF A TRACE WAS SET AT MILWAUKEE WI ON APRIL 19.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 1990.

A RECORD PRECIPITATION OF 1.04 INCHES WAS SET IN MADISON ON
APRIL 19.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 0.93 INCHES IN 1993.

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.3 INCHES WAS SET IN MADISON ON APRIL 19.
THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL RECORD OF 0.3 INCHES WAS SET IN 1953.  

Happy Anniversary, BP Oil Disaster!

This morning's Diane Rehm Show marked the one-year anniversary tomorrow of the BP oil spill disaster in the Gulf of Mexico (audio here). Guests were:

• Joel Achenbach: reporter, The Washington Post; writer for Achenblog; author of "A Hole at the Bottom of the Sea: The Race to Kill the BP Oil Gusher."
• Frances Beinecke: president, Natural Resources Defense Council; former member of the National Oil Spill Commission.
• Randall Luthi: president of the National Ocean Industries Association and former director of the Minerals Management Service.

Luthi repeatedly praised the beneficial effects of the disaster as a learning experience for the industry. Investigative reporter Greg Palast suggests the industry may be somewhat learning impaired:
BP's Secret Deepwater Blowout

Raleigh Tornado Rated EF-3

April 19 Update: The National Weather Service has posted a preliminary track map of the 26 tornadoes in North Carolina on April 16:
The breakdown by intensity, shown on the map, includes 5 tornadoes at EF-3, including the large storm which passed through Raleigh.


Images (click to enlarge): Map of over 240 tornado reports in the 3 days April 14-16, from New York Times; Composite radar image shows multiple severe storms covering much of central North Carolina (including path of Sanford/Raleigh tornado) on April 16, from WRAL-TV (h/t Sarah Scolnik)

Midnight Update: The New York Times reports ("Experts Busy Assessing Ferocity of Storms") that the NWS is estimating "that North Carolina was hit by 15 to 20 tornadoes on Saturday — about the average number the state had in an entire year."

The Raleigh News Observer has a review of the tornado outbreak in Tuesday's edition (Piecing together a deadly weather day) plus photo galleries with hundreds of images locally and statewide across North Carolina.

See here for an interactive map of storm damage photos in the city of Raleigh.

Original post:
A preliminary analysis posted this afternoon by the National Weather Service rates the large tornado which moved through Raleigh, NC on Saturday afternoon, April 16, at EF-3 on the revised Fujita scale:

LOCATION...SANFORD...BROADWAY...HOLLY SPRINGS AND RALEIGH IN LEE AND
WAKE COUNTIES COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
DATE...APRIL 16, 2011
ESTIMATED TIME...253 PM EDT
MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF3
ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...160 MPH
MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH....0.3 MILES
MILES PATH LENGTH...APPROXIMATELY 63 MILES
BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.34N / 79.31W
ENDING LAT/LON...35.93N / 78.46W
* FATALITIES...5
* INJURIES...TOTAL NUMBER UNKNOWN 

At its peak,

CONTINUING NORTHEAST ALONG CAMERON DRIVE...THE UPPER FLOOR WAS
BLOWN OFF TWO APARTMENT BUILDINGS. THE TORNADO THEN ENTERED AN
INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX ALONG INDUSTRIAL DR WHERE IT MULTIPLE STEEL
CONSTRUCTED RETAIL BUILDINGS WERE DESTROYED IN ADDITION TO AT
LEAST THREE LARGE WAREHOUSES AT THE STATIC CONTROL FACILITY. WINDS
IN THIS AREA LIKELY EXCEEDED 160 MPH. THE TORNADO THEN DESTROYED
THE TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY... BIG LOTS... AND LOWES HOME
IMPROVEMENT STORE ALONG HIGHWAY 421. WINDS IN THIS AREA WERE
ESTIMATED AROUND 140 MPH. TWO HOMES WERE BLOWN OFF THEIR
FOUNDATIONS ALONG RICE RD NORTH OF HIGHWAY 42. A FATALITY OCCURRED
ALONG POPLAR SPRING CHURCH ROAD IN A MOBILE HOME. THE TORNADO
CONTINUED NORTHEAST ALONG AVENT FERRY ROAD CROSSING INTO CHATHAM
COUNTY JUST EAST OF HARRIS LAKE. 

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore twitches that this may have been the largest tornado outbreak in North Carolina history.