Wednesday, August 9, 2006

Nice for August


Comfortably warm: For the first time in about 2 weeks, Washington metro area afternoon temperatures are several degrees below average in the mid 80s after an official low of 68°. Although a few locations have crept past 60°, most dewpoints are in the very comfortable 50s. Regional radar is dry in all directions.

Tonight and Tomorrow

More humid, chance of showers: Humidity and clouds will be increasing overnight as the cold front which came through early yesterday tries to return from the southwest as a warm front. Lows will be in the low 70s in town, a few degrees cooler in the 'burbs. There is a chance of showers or thunderstorms tomorrow morning, especially to the south of the immediate area, but a better chance (40%) in the afternoon; highs will be in the low to mid 80s, depending on the amount of sunshine.

Scroll down to Dan's post below for the outlook through the weekend.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is still watching a low pressure area which is now approaching the Lesser Antilles. A reconnaissance flight this afternoon found no closed circulation at the surface, but conditions look favorable for development of a tropical depression in the next day or so.

Tuesday, August 8, 2006

More Pleasant in Mount Pleasant


Not as hot, less humid. Not just Mount Pleasant, but the entire Washington metro area is enjoying much more comfortable conditions this afternoon. Temperatures have run well up into the 80s and even to 90° in the southern fringes of the region, but dewpoints are 10° or more lower than 24 hours earlier after a cold front passed through around 5am. After a string of above-average temperatures extending back 2 weeks to July 26, the next several days will seem especially nice.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Dry and pleasant. Tonight will be mostly clear with comfortable humidity and low temperatures from the upper 60s in town to near 60 in the coolest 'burbs. (The last time the official low was below 70 was July 24.) Sunny skies and low humidity are on tap for tomorrow with highs in the mid 80s.
Scroll down to Jason's post below for the outlook through the rest of the week.

Precip Recap

The thunderstorms late yesterday afternoon and evening were quite skimpy in the immediate metro area. Most places inside the Beltway had less than 0.1" (light blue area); much of Montgomery County, for example, was bone dry. The 0.22" recorded at National was enough to keep the month of August so far just barely above average when combined with the amount which fell in the wee hours of yesterday morning. Following the very dry last 3 weeks of July, many lawns, at least in this part of MoCo, are looking quite brown.

24-hour precipitation through 8am today from NWS

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center continues watching a low pressure area which is now about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands for possible development into a tropical depression.

NOAA today issued an updated hurricane outlook for the remainder of the season. The new outlook continues to predict an above-average (75% chance) hurricane season, but the numbers are slightly reduced from the earlier forecast: "12-15 named storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-4 becoming major hurricanes."

The NOAA outlook follows by a few days the new Klotzbach-Gray prediction from Colorado State. This update also reduces estimates from earlier predictions with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major storms.

Monday, August 7, 2006

Breaking the Spell of the Muggies

5:25 Update: The storm moving into Fairfax Co. has prompted a Special Marine Warning for the tidal Potomac.


Muggy, chance of showers: Temperatures throughout the Washington DC region are in the low 90s and higher late this afternoon. The thunderstorms which awoke many residents early this morning have added to the mugginess; nearly all locations are reporting heat index values over 100. Relief is on the way, however, in the form of a cold front moving southeastward from the Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, radar is showing only a couple of extremely isolated thunderstorms from near Hagerstown to west of Charlottesville. One of them in southern Loudoun County is intensifying and moving slowly eastward into Fairfax County at post time. chart from NWS data, photo by Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Becoming cooler and less humid:There is still a 40% chance of thunderstorms through around midnight, but the timing of the frontal passage is looking unfavorable for any widespread activity. Lows should be mainly in the mid 70s. Tomorrow will be cooler and much less humid with highs about 88.

Scroll down to Jason's post below for the outlook through the rest of the week.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Storm Chris is now history, but the National Hurricane Center is watching a "well-defined" low pressure area about 1200 miles east of the southern Windward Islands for possible development into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow.

Today's WaPo has an article, "Research Team Seeking Clues to a Hurricane's Birth", about the NAMMA project, a joint study between NASA and NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, which is celebrating its 50th anniversary this year. The experiment is designed to help understand the process by which easterly waves, disturbances which move off the African continent, become tropical cyclones in the eastern Atlantic.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.