Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Eastern Blizzard Set Snowfall Records From Mississippi to Maine

December 29 Update: The December 26-27 snowfall map (click to enlarge) from the National Weather Service shows that the bullseye of the storm was in the northern New Jersey/New York City metropolitan area. The Eastern Coastal and Northeast maps of 24-hour liquid equivalent for frozen precipitation show the heaviest amounts near and along the coast.

Maximum snow totals were in the Union County area of New Jersey, to the west of New York, where amounts in excess of 2 feet were common:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
...UNION COUNTY...
RAHWAY 32.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
ELIZABETH 31.8 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELLE 28.7 710 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 27.0 745 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
FANWOOD 26.0 100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GARWOOD 25.0 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
Original post:
The National Climatic Data Center reports that the December 25-27 snowstorm set dozens of daily snowfall records from Alabama to Maine:
            Previous  Length of      
Snowfall Amount Year Record Location
12/25/2010
4.5 0.3 1989 52 AL HUNTSVILLE INTL AP (KHSV)
2.4 Trace 1993 70 AL MUSCLE SHOALS AP (KMSL)
1 Trace 1993 107 AL ANNISTON METRO AP (KANB)
2 0.2 1993 66 GA ATHENS BEN EPPS AP (KAHN)
1.3 Trace 1993 80 GA ATLANTA HARTSFIELD AP (KATL)
0.1 0 2009 69 GA MACON MIDDLE GA AP (KMCN)
1.4 Trace 1989 48 MS TUPELO RGNL AP (KTUP)
6.5 5.4 1969 62 NC ASHEVILLE AP (KAVL)
4.2 2.8 1947 107 NC GREENSBORO WSO AP (KGSO)
0.4 Trace 1999 65 NC RALEIGH DURHAM WSFO AP (KRDU)
0.4 Trace 1998 69 NC CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AP (KCLT)
1.6 1 1962 48 SC GRNVL SPART INTL AP (KGSP)
4.3 Trace 1948 65 VA DANVILLE RGNL AP (KDAN)
12/26/2010
1 0 2009 70 AL MUSCLE SHOALS AP (KMSL)
0.3 Trace 1992 52 AL HUNTSVILLE INTL AP (KHSV)
8 7.5 1969 68 CT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP (KBDR)
3.2 1.8 1976 68 DE WILMINGTON NEW CASTLE (KILG)
1.3 Trace 1953 66 GA ATHENS BEN EPPS AP (KAHN)
1.3 0.3 1972 62 KY LEXINGTON BLUEGRASS AP (KLEX)
9.9 9.4 1933 90 MA BOSTON WSFO AP (KBOS)
6.7 Trace 2004 65 NC RALEIGH DURHAM WSFO AP (KRDU)
1.6 1 1917 107 NC GREENSBORO WSO AP (KGSO)
1.6 0 2009 69 NC CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AP (KCLT)
0.5 0.4 1977 62 NC ASHEVILLE AP (KAVL)
0.1 0 2009 77 NC WILMINGTON INTL AP (KILM)
18.4 0.2 1970 63 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP (KACY)
11.3 1 2004 37 NY ISLIP LI MACARTHUR AP (KISP)
10.5 4.4 1969 62 NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP (KJFK)
10.2 4.1 1969 63 NY NEW YORK LA GUARDIA AP (KLGA)
11.6 1.5 1976 69 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP (KPHL)
7.9 6.1 1969 68 RI PROVIDENCE WSO AP (KPVD)
1.8 Trace 2004 68 SC COLUMBIA WSFO AP (KCAE)
0.7 Trace 1969 48 SC GRNVL SPART INTL AP (KGSP)
0.2 Trace 2004 80 SC CHARLESTON INTL AP (KCHS)
3.9 1.9 1969 100 TN KNOXVILLE AP (KTYS)
0.6 Trace 1983 62 TN JACKSON MCKELLAR AP (KMKL)
13.4 5 2004 64 VA NORFOLK INTL AP (KORF)
0.8 0 2009 65 VA DANVILLE RGNL AP (KDAN)
7 3.4 1989 47 WV BECKLEY RALEIGH CY AP (KBKW)
5.1 2.4 1976 51 WV BLUEFIELD MERCER AP (KBLF)
4 1.9 1976 62 WV CHARLESTON YEAGER AP (KCRW)
12/27/2010
4 1.1 1963 68 CT BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AP (KBDR)
10.3 2 1988 69 ME BANGOR AP (KBGR)
6.2 5.4 2005 71 ME CARIBOU WFO (KCAR)
6.5 4.7 1984 75 NJ NEWARK INTL AP (KEWR)
7.8 4.8 1984 134 NY NY CITY CNTRL PARK (KNYC)
5.1 3.2 1984 62 NY NEW YORK JFK INTL AP (KJFK)

Monday, December 27, 2010

Northeast Blizzard Snow Totals Top 20" [Over 50 cm], Winds Reach Hurricane Force;
Near-Record Low Pressure

2 PM Update: At 7 am EST this morning, as the center of the Northeast blizzard was passing close by, Nantucket reported a barometric pressure of 28.46" and falling. This was just slightly above the all-time mainland U.S. pressure record set just a few months ago in Minnesota.

Noon Update: The images below (click to enlarge) from the National Weather Service show forecast storm total snowfalls from Delaware through New Jersey, Long Island, and southern New York and Connecticut.


Here are some of the highest updated snowfall reports from the blizzard pounding the Northeast. The data have been compiled from National Weather Service offices from Philadelphia through Portland, Maine, as of noon, Monday, December 27:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************  

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
MASSACHUSETTS

..BERKSHIRE COUNTY
WILLIAMSTOWN 22.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
OTIS 20.0 1002 AM 12/27
ADAMS 19.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
NORTH OTIS 17.0 645 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..BRISTOL COUNTY
TAUNTON 16.7 1004 AM 12/27 NWS OFFICE
MANSFIELD 16.5 810 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

..ESSEX COUNTY
SAUGUS 17.0 447 AM 12/27 GENERAL PUBLIC
SALEM 17.0 1059 AM 12/27 SALEM STATE

..NORFOLK COUNTY
FOXBORO 16.5 955 AM 12/27

..PLYMOUTH COUNTY
BROCKTON 16.0 956 AM 12/27 HAM RADIO

..SUFFOLK COUNTY
SOUTH BOSTON 17.0 1039 AM 12/27
EAST BOSTON 16.5 709 AM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE

NEW HAMPSHIRE

..COOS COUNTY
RANDOLPH 25.0 1148 AM 12/27 COCORAHS

..GRAFTON COUNTY
GRAFTON 24.0 1126 AM 12/27
5 S PIERMONT 22.0 1150 AM 12/27

NEW YORK

..COLUMBIA COUNTY
KINDERHOOK 21.0 834 AM 12/27 2 TO 3 FOOT DRIFTS
NORTH CHATHAM 20.3 802 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO 4 FEET
CLAVERACK 20.0 1129 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
NORTH HILLSDALE 20.0 714 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
GHENT 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
HILLSDALE 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
TAGHKANIC 19.0 800 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
LEBANON SPRINGS 18.0 830 AM 12/27
ANCRAMDALE 17.5 1125 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..DUTCHESS COUNTY
PINE PLAINS 25.0 758 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
RHINEBECK 17.0 938 AM 12/27

..GREENE COUNTY
MAPLECREST 17.0 856 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..RENSSELAER COUNTY
EAST POESTENKILL 24.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
GRAFTON 24.0 1128 AM 12/27
STEPHENTOWN 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
AVERILL PARK 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
SCHODACK CENTER 19.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN

..ULSTER COUNTY
NEW PALTZ 16.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
ROSENDALE 14.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN

..BRONX COUNTY
SOUNDVIEW PARK HOMES 22.5 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BEDFORD PARK 22.0 600 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..KINGS (BROOKLYN) COUNTY
SHEEPSHEAD BAY 24.0 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
BROOKLYN 17.5 130 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..NASSAU COUNTY
OLD BETHPAGE 20.5 907 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CARLE PLACE 18.1 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..NEW YORK COUNTY
CENTRAL PARK 20.0 700 AM 12/27 ASOS

..ORANGE COUNTY
TUXEDO PARK 26.0 255 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
HARRIMAN 26.0 630 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MONROE 24.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NEW WINDSOR 17.5 745 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..QUEENS COUNTY
ASTORIA 16.1 801 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 15.5 700 AM 12/27 ASOS

..RICHMOND COUNTY
GREAT KILLS 29.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
ELTINGVILLE 22.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
STATEN ISLAND 17.8 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..SUFFOLK COUNTY
NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
UPTON 17.6 700 AM 12/27 NWS OFFICE
CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..WESTCHESTER COUNTY
YONKERS 19.5 800 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT VERNON 17.0 1115 PM 12/26 BROADCAST MEDIA
BRONXVILLE 17.0 1140 PM 12/26 PUBLIC

VERMONT

..BENNINGTON COUNTY
WOODFORD 20.0 743 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6
BENNINGTON 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
POWNAL 20.0 730 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
NORTH BENNINGTON 20.0 830 AM 12/27 WTEN
20 SUNDERLAND 19.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
LANDGROVE 18.0 753 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

..WINDHAM COUNTY
BALL MOUNTAIN LAKE 18.0 700 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

CONNECTICUT

..FAIRFIELD COUNTY
WILTON 18.0 830 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GREENWICH 17.0 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
NORWALK 16.0 910 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
DANBURY 14.1 800 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
BRIDGEPORT 12.0 900 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER

NEW JERSEY

..BERGEN COUNTY
LYNDHURST 29.0 230 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
LODI 27.1 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
RUTHERFORD 23.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
OAKLAND 22.0 730 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
GARFIELD 21.8 331 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W TENAFLY 20.0 700 AM 12/27 COCORAHS
MAHWAH 17.5 1000 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
RIDGEWOOD 17.5 622 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
PARAMUS 17.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

..ESSEX COUNTY
NEWARK AIRPORT 24.2 700 AM 12/27 ASOS
VERONA 23.0 500 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
MILLBURN 22.5 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
CEDAR GROVE 21.1 700 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
BELLEVILLE 19.4 1130 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST ORANGE 17.0 1200 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..HUDSON COUNTY
SECAUCUS 25.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HARRISON 25.0 800 AM 12/27 CO-OP OBSERVER
JERSEY CITY 23.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HOBOKEN 19.9 800 AM 12/27 SKYWARN SPOTTER

..PASSAIC COUNTY
CLIFTON 25.0 800 AM 12/27 NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
HASKELL 24.5 200 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
WAYNE 22.0 915 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
RINGWOOD 22.0 810 AM 12/27 PUBLIC
WEST MILFORD 22.0 415 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

..UNION COUNTY
ELIZABETH 31.8 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
ROSELLE 28.7 710 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
UNION 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
CLARK 27.0 745 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER
FANWOOD 26.0 100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC

..ATLANTIC COUNTY
PLEASANTVILLE 19.0 820 AM 12/27
ATLANTIC CITY 19.0 808 AM 12/27
NORTHFIELD 17.5 1148 PM 12/26

..BURLINGTON COUNTY
WRIGHTSTOWN 19.2 1036 AM 12/27 CO-OP
CHESTERFIELD 19.0 1056 AM 12/27
SOUTHAMPTON TWP 18.0 951 AM 12/27

..CAPE MAY COUNTY
DENNISVILLE 26.5 947 AM 12/27
ELDORA 25.0 946 AM 12/27
ERMA 22.0 945 AM 12/27
NORTH CAPE MAY 21.0 945 AM 12/27
GREEN CREEK 18.5 944 AM 12/27
CAPE MAY 18.0 748 PM 12/26 HARBOR
SCOTCH BONNET 17.0 946 AM 12/27

..MIDDLESEX COUNTY
EDISON 25.0 935 AM 12/27
NORTH EDISON 23.3 916 AM 12/27
CHEESEQUAKE 23.2 837 AM 12/27
SAYREVILLE 21.0 1236 AM 12/27
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 20.2 1029 PM 12/26
NEW BRUNSWICK 19.5 1032 AM 12/27 CO-OP
METUCHEN 19.1 151 AM 12/27
HOPELAWN 18.5 839 AM 12/27

..MONMOUTH COUNTY
COLTS NECK 25.0 956 AM 12/27
MIDDLETOWN 24.0 1059 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO THREE FEET
CREAM RIDGE 22.7 922 AM 12/27
MIDDLETOWN TWP 21.0 1215 AM 12/27
HOLMDEL 20.0 917 AM 12/27
LAKE COMO 19.0 1107 PM 12/26

..MORRIS COUNTY
LINCOLN PARK 29.0 800 AM 12/27 DRIFTS OVER THREE FEET.
BUTLER 22.0 935 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO FOUR FEET
MONROE 18.0 824 PM 12/26

..OCEAN COUNTY
TOMS RIVER 28.0 941 AM 12/27
BRICKTOWN 27.0 917 AM 12/27
BAYVILLE 26.0 920 AM 12/27
MANAHAWKIN 21.0 916 AM 12/27
FORKED RIVER 21.0 919 AM 12/27
JACKSON TWP 20.1 921 AM 12/27
HERBERTSVILLE 20.0 924 AM 12/27
MANCHESTER TWP 19.2 919 AM 12/27
LAKEWOOD 18.0 917 AM 12/27
BAMBER LAKE 17.0 917 AM 12/27
WHITING 17.0 919 AM 12/27

..SOMERSET COUNTY
SOMERSET 22.5 100 AM 12/27
NORTH PLAINFIELD 18.0 1100 PM 12/26
Original post:

Image (click to enlarge): Surface weather map for 10 pm EST, December 26, 2010, shows a low with minimum pressure of 972 mb (a drop of 19 mb in 12 hours) centered south of Cape Cod. By 1 am Monday, pressure at Martha's Vineyard MA was down to 974.4 mb and at Montauk NY was 974.2 mb.

As the blizzard off the Northeast coast continues to strengthen, storm total reports exceeding 18" have already been reported. As of midnight Sunday, snowfall amounts near or above one and a half feet include:
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
NEW JERSEY

..BERGEN COUNTY
MAHWAH 17.0 930 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

..UNION COUNTY
ELIZABETH 19.0 850 PM 12/26 TRAINED SPOTTER

..ATLANTIC COUNTY
NORTHFIELD 17.5 1148 PM 12/26

..CAPE MAY COUNTY
CAPE MAY 18.0 748 PM 12/26 HARBOR

..MIDDLESEX COUNTY
SAYREVILLE 21.0 1236 AM 12/27
NORTH BRUNSWICK TWP 20.2 1029 PM 12/26
EDISON 20.1 1117 PM 12/26
HOPELAWN 18.5 1000 PM 12/26

..MONMOUTH COUNTY
MIDDLETOWN TWP 21.0 1215 AM 12/27
LAKE COMO 19.0 1107 PM 12/26

..MORRIS COUNTY
LINCOLN PARK 18.0 958 PM 12/26
MONROE 18.0 824 PM 12/26

..SOMERSET COUNTY
SOMERSET 19.5 1209 AM 12/27
NORTH PLAINFIELD 18.0 1100 PM 12/26
Meanwhile, wind gusts over 50 mph have been reported over a wide area, including Bridgeport CT (60 mph), Madison CT (56 mph), New Haven CT (51 mph), Groton CT (52 mph), Newark NJ (51 mph), Farmingdale NY (51 mph), Islip NY (64 mph), Wellfleet MA (80 mph), Orleans MA (79 mph), Harwich MA (58 mph), Chatham MA (53 mph), E. Falmouth MA (52 mph), Yarmouth MA (50 mph), Edgartown MA (56 mph), Nantucket (59 mph)

Sunday, December 26, 2010

Record-Setting Southern Christmas Snow

6 PM Update: Washington National has had a total snowfall of a trace as of 6 pm, despite reporting light snow almost continuously since 11 am this morning and also despite rampant hype-ocracy for days from the commercial media. As the storm moves away toward the northeast, as shown in the radar image from The Weather Channel, the highest snowfall amounts reported in the region are around 5" at 2 locations in St. Marys County in southern Maryland.

The daily total for Richmond has been corrected to 3.8" (0.7" of the storm total fell before midnight last night). The Norfolk total has increased to 12.5".

5 PM Update: The 12.0" of snow reported at Norfolk as of 3 pm today breaks the old record for December 26 of 5.0" set in 2004. The 4.5" 3.8" reported so far at Richmond breaks the old daily record of 3.5" set in 1917. The highest storm totals in southeastern Virginia as of 5 pm are 13.2" at Smithfield, in Isle of Wight County, northwest of Norfolk, and 14.0" at Yorktown.

Today's low temperature so far of 28° at Richmond is 1° lower than the average for the date of 29°, but well above the record of 5° in 1980.

The map to the right shows the average temperature departure from climatology for December 1-24 in the U.S.

Original post:
The Christmas snow across parts of the southern U.S. set several records for the date. Overall, 12 daily snowfall records were set in the 6 states of the Southeast Regional Climate Center (Virginia through Alabama). The total number of daily low temperature records reported by the National Climatic Data Center in the entire contiguous 48 states from December 20 through 25: zero.

Here are some of the Christmas records compiled from National Weather Service reports.

North Carolina:
The 0.4" at Raleigh tied the record for December 25 set in 1947. Raleigh has also reported a trace of snow on 9 other occasions since records began in 1944. The greatest depth on the ground for December 25 was 1" in 1966. Piedmont-Triad (Greensboro) had 4.2", which broke the old record of 2.8", also set in 1947.

The 6.5" at Asheville broke the record of 5.4" set in 1969.

The low temperature of 32° at Raleigh was 1° above the average for the date and nowhere near the record of 4° in 1983. The low temperature of 28° at Asheville was also 1° above the average for the date. The record low of -7° was set in 1983.

South Carolina:
The 1.6" at Greenville-Spartanburg edged out the 1.0" in 1962, but was less than the record of 2.0" in 1947.

Georgia:
At Macon, the 0.1" was the first measurable snow ever recorded on December 25. The 2" at Athens broke the old record of 0.2" in 1993. The 1.2" at Atlanta was the first measurable snowfall on Christmas since 1882. The most recent trace of snow at Atlanta on the date was in 1993. In all, Atlanta has recorded a trace of snow 13 times on December 25.

The Atlanta record low temperature for December 25 was 0°F in 1983. This year the low was 31°, barely enough to support the snow which fell. The records for the date at Macon and Athens are 7° and 3°, respectively, also set in 1983.

Alabama:
Huntsville measured 4.5" of snow on Christmas, smashing the old record of 0.3" set in 1989. The 1" of snow at Anniston was the first measurable amount on December 25 since records began in 1903.

The low temperature of 30° at Huntsville was just 2° below average and 31° above the record low of -1° in 1983.

Mississippi:
The estimated 1.4" reported at Tupelo was the first measurable amount of snow on December 25 in records which began in 1930. The last time a trace was reported was 1989.

The low temperature at Tupelo of 33° was 1° above average and 33° above the record of 0° in 1983.

Saturday, December 25, 2010

California Rainfall Smashes Records By Wide Margin

The torrential rainfall of the past week set numerous records in California and the southwestern U.S. For the 7 days ending December 23, the precipitation totals were off the chart---over 600% of normal for at least half of California and Nevada, nearly all of Utah, most of Arizona, and eastward into southern Wyoming and western Colorado.

The National Weather Service has reported that the monthly totals so far are now the wettest on record for December at the airports in Los Angeles, Long Beach, Camarillo, Santa Barbara, and Santa Maria. In some of the higher elevations of interior southern California, storm totals ranged as high as 28". The printed amounts on the map to the right are a little hard to read, but note that the yellow areas represent 24-28", and the orange pixels are over 28".

Several daily rainfall records were broken by spectacular margins. In the San Joaquin Valley, at Bakersfield, California, the 1.37" on the 18th was over 4.5 times the previous record, which dated back to 1921. The 1.53" on the next day was more than triple the old record and easily beat the all-time daily record for December of 1.02" on the 27th in 1936. Bakersfield climate records go back to 1889. The 24-hour total of 2.31" on the 18th-19th was double the old December record of 1.15" on December 3-4, 1914. It was also the 3rd highest all-time 24-hour amount at Bakersfield, just behind the 2.32" on January 24-25, 1999. The monthly total of 4.95" so far has exceeded by nearly 2" the old December record of 2.98" set in 1931. This is now within striking distance of the all-time wettest month for Bakersfield, 5.36" in February 1998.

At the higher elevations of central California, snowfall was measured not in feet, but in tens of feet. Here are some of the more amazing estimated amounts:
Location                County   Snowfall
PASCOES SNOTEL TULARE 204"
WEST WOODCHUCK MEADOW FRESNO 192"
CHAGOOPA PLATEAU SNOTEL TULARE 120"
WET MEADOWS SNOTEL TULARE 191"
BISHOP PASS SNOTEL FRESNO 195"
CRABTREE MEADOW SNOTEL TULARE 143"
KAISER POINT SNOTEL FRESNO 168"
Over 1900 daily rainfall records have been set through December 24 in the U.S., nearly 50% more than the total low temperature and high temperature records combined. Of these, 262 were set in California alone, with 58 on the 19th, 44 on the 20th, and 40 on the 22nd.

Meanwhile, despite the excess earlier in the month, daily low temperature records are less than 100 ahead of the daily high temperature records for December. The year-to-date ratio of heat records to cold records remains well in favor of the heat records at 2.4 to 1.

Images (click to enlarge): California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona 7-day precipitation percentage of normal ending 7 am EDT, December 23 from National Weather Service (NWS); Storm total precipitation for southern California, December 17-23, from NWS; Monthly total of daily low temperature, high temperature, and precipitation records through December 24, CapitalClimate chart from National Climatic Data Center records

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Cold Weather and Rising Energy Prices

Oil prices are approaching $90 a barrel, reaching a high of $89.97 in today's trading on the NYMEX exchange and closing at a 2-year high. It's also cold in much of the eastern U.S. and western Europe where a lot of heating oil is consumed, so the weather must be causing the price rise, right?

Well, not really. CNBC's Squawk Box this morning had an extended interview with John Kingston, Platts Global Director Of News. He stated that of the major factors affecting oil prices, weather was perhaps third. The primary cause of the price rise is an imbalance between a probably unprecedented increase in demand and OPEC's inability to expand production at a sufficient rate. In particular, China's consumption has increased by 13% since November 2009, driven at least in part by conversion of electricity generation from coal to diesel.

Kingston's outlook for 2011: $100 per barrel is well within reach based on demand forecasts. Veteran oil analyst Charles Maxwell, interviewed on Bloomberg, sees $150 in the next several years.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Who's the Biggest Terrorist? Yo' Mama!

Dec. 21 PM Update: Meteorologist Jeff Masters yesterday posted a review of a presentation at the recent American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco. The presentation by Shimon Wdowinsky of the University of Miami proposed a plausible mechanism by which the severity of the Haiti earthquake could have been influenced by deforestation and several major hurricanes which affected the country in 2008:
At last week's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting last week in San Francisco, Shimon Wdowinsky of the University of Miami proposed a different method whereby unusual strains on the crust might trigger an earthquake. In a talk titled, Triggering of the 2010 Haiti earthquake by hurricanes and possibly deforestation , Wdowinsky studied the stresses on Earth's crust over the epicenter of the mighty January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed over 200,000 people. This quake was centered in a mountainous area of southwest Haiti that has undergone severe deforestation—over 98% of the trees have been felled on the mountain in recent decades, allowing extreme erosion to occur during Haiti's frequent heavy rainfall events. Since 1975, the erosion rate in these mountains has been 6 mm/year, compared to the typical erosion rate of less than 1 mm/yr in forested tropical mountains. Satellite imagery (Figure 2) reveals that the eroded material has built up significantly in the Leogane Delta to the north of the earthquake's epicenter. In the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The bare, rugged hillsides let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 1,000, destroying 22,702 homes, and damaging another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor. Tragically, the hurricanes of 2008 may have set up Haiti for an ever larger disaster. Wdowinsky computed that the amount of mass eroded away from the mountains over the epicenter of the 2010 earthquake was sufficient to cause crustal strains capable of causing a vertically-oriented slippage along a previously unknown fault. This type of motion is quite unusual in this region, as most quakes in Haiti tend to be of the strike-slip variety, where the tectonic plates slide horizontally past each other. The fact that the 2010 Haiti quake occurred along a vertically moving fault lends support to the idea that the slippage was triggered due to mass stripped off the mountains by erosion over the epicenter, combined with the extra weight of the extra sediment deposited in the Leogane Delta clamping down on the northern portion of the fault. Wdowinsky gave two other examples in Taiwan where earthquakes followed several months after the passage of tropical cyclones that dumped heavy rains over mountainous regions. His theory of tropical cyclone-triggered quakes deserves consideration, and provides another excellent reason to curb excessive deforestation!

Original post:
Interesting point of view in today's commentary from Dave Ross on CBS Radio:
. . . I happened to see the AP's annual catalog of disaster and realized that the greatest terrorist of all...isn't some radical bomb-thrower. It's The Planet.

In the year 2010, earthquakes, heat waves, floods, mega-typhoons, blizzards, landslides and droughts killed a quarter of a million people - most of them in January's earthquake in Haiti.

By the AP's calculations, that's more than TWICE the number of people who died in terrorist attacks in the last 25 years, COMBINED. . .

More audio at MyNorthwest.com

This is particularly relevant given the 4 solid pages of prime A-section real estate in today's high-fiber WaPo devoted entirely to analyzing the hundreds of billions being spent annually on "public safety." Apparently we can't afford to spend even a small fraction of that on the much deadlier threat from Momma Nature's attempts to kill us.

Hype-ocracy PM Update


6 PM Update: The afternoon model run is consistent with the morning one in showing a low pressure area tracking to the south of the area and bringing Washington snow on Christmas.

See here for an example of how snowfall amounts are not necessarily correlated with temperatures.

Original post:
The eyeball-hungry low-fiber WaPo has pimped the "s-word" in six seven consecutive [11 pm Update] 8 out of the last 9 blog headlines, but the broadcast media have been maintaining a sensibly low profile on the chances for Washington snow on Christmas. In today's mid-day sample, WRC, Channel 4, veteran Tom Kierein mentioned the possibility of Washington snow on Christmas, but reined in the hype. Even frequent hyper-personality Tom Sater on WUSA, Channel 9, cautiously backed off the assertions last night of newcomer Anny Hong.

The National Weather Service, while carrying a 50% chance of Washington snow on Christmas, is being respectful of the uncertainty at the limits of practical predictability:
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE REGION SOMETIME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. IF THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST...SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS WELL OFF THE COAST...SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT. ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD DEFINITELY STAY APPRISED OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.
The map to the right shows one major model's interpretation of the surface weather for 7 pm, Saturday, December 25. It has a strengthening storm off the Mid Atlantic coast, with snow over much of the DMV (DC/Maryland/Virginia). If interpreted literally (a serious risk at the range of 5 and a half days), it would generate a total for the event of about 3-5" of snow in the region, with the larger amounts in the southern and eastern portions.

The graph shows snow depth on the ground in Washington on Christmas for each year since 1929. By the way, the 7" last year, while tying the record for the period, had completely disappeared the next day. Note to Ice Ager Linkbot Tom N: If you can find a trend in that data, you deserve to beat out Fred the Singe-r for the Nobel Prize in Cherry Picking.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Hype-ocracy: White Christmas in Washington

In a town normally overrun with hype, the hyping of Washington snow on Christmas reaches even more extreme heights. With the event still 6 days away, the possibility of Washington snow on Christmas has once again appeared among the blogotariat and the ratings-driven media. The chances of Washington snow on Christmas was featured on at least 3 local TV channels (WTTG-5, WJLA-7, and WUSA-9) tonight; WRC-4 was delayed by the football game too late to make this survey.

In fact, this year the cold air is firmly entrenched, but that didn't prevent the earlier outlook for Washington snow [the week before] Christmas to be a complete bust today. Some previous indications of the white stuff for Tuesday have also trended strongly toward the bust-bucket. Nevertheless, some models are hinting at the possibility of a storm developing late in the week and bringing some Washington snow on Christmas.

Three years ago, CapitalClimate surveyed the climatological prospects for Washington snow on Christmas:
Climatologically, there is only about a 10% chance of 1" or more of snow on the ground on Christmas in Washington. Since 1929, there have been only 8 such occurrences. The largest amount was 7" in 1966, with 5" and 4" in 1962 and 1963, respectively. That was the only time it happened in consecutive years. The most recent was 1989, with 2". The wettest was 1.41" of rain in 1945.
Since that time, there has been one more year with Washington snow on Christmas. That was, of course, 2009, when 7" remained on the ground from the 16" which fell on the 18th-19th. That marked the first time there had been Washington snow on Christmas in 20 years. If there is Washington snow on Christmas again this year, it would be only the second time that had occurred in consecutive years since 1929.

As for Washington snow on Christmas resulting from measurable snow falling on the actual day of December 25, that's only happened 6 times in 81 years (7.4%), and only 2 of them were over 1". Here's the complete list:
1962 5.4
1969 4.3
1935 0.6
1970 0.3
1993 0.2
2002 0.2
Still dreaming of Washington snow on Christmas? The odds are certainly better this year than the climatological average, but tonight's glib pronouncement of a "50-50 chance" for Washington snow on Christmas by Washington novice Anny Hong on WUSA, Channel 9, was waaaay premature.

Image (click to enlarge): Washington snow on Christmas (amount falling on December 25) since 1929; CapitalClimate chart from NWS data

Season's Greetings

Greetings of the season, from MIT TechTV's animated snow globe (click arrow below to play; adjust speakers, volume may be loud):

MIT Tech TV

Syracuse Snowfall Smashes Monthly Max


Images (click to enlarge): December 19, 2010, snow depth and departure from normal, from National Weather Service



The 1.4" of snow which fell at Syracuse, NY on Friday, December 17, brought the monthly total so far to 70.9". This is the highest amount ever recorded in December at Syracuse. The old record was 70.3" in 2000. Aided by a persistent northwesterly wind over an unfrozen Lake Ontario, snow has fallen on all but 4 days so far this month. Six inches or more fell on each of 4 consecutive days from the 5th through the 8th, and there have been 3 days with at least 10" each.

With a little less than 2 weeks left, this month is now within 0.1" of tying the 4th highest monthly total in Syracuse history dating back to 1902:
1. 78.1 INCHES JANUARY 2004
2. 72.6 INCHES FEBRUARY 1958
3. 72.2 INCHES JANUARY 1978
4. 71.0 INCHES JANUARY 1966
5. 70.9 INCHES DECEMBER 1ST-18TH, 2010
The latest forecast indicates that the greatest chance for more snowfall in the coming week is a 50% probability of snow showers on Monday.

The December average temperature of 26.2° so far at Syracuse, while 4.4° below average, is not even within 5° of being in the top 5 coldest Decembers. The coldest on record was 14.7° in 1998.

Today's snow depth map for the Northeast from the National Weather Service shows heavy amounts in the lee of the Great Lakes and in the Adirondacks and mountains of northern New England, but little or nothing along the coast and most interior sections.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Arctic Air Attack Registers Records;
Precipitation, Not Temperature, the Real Story

It was noted here recently that heat records have far exceeded cold records in the U.S. for the last 9 consecutive months. Nevertheless, the recent outbreak of Arctic air as far south as the Gulf Coast and Florida has inspired the Ice Agers to Twitch far and wide, "Hundreds of new cold and snow records set in the USA." The heavy snowfall in Minneapolis even led to the collapse of the inflatable roof of the Metrodom [sic].

Is the oft-proclaimed, but never observed, New Ice Age upon us? Well, not quite yet. With the month of December almost half over, the new daily low temperature records have exceeded the new daily highs by a margin of 378 to 191. For the year to date, however, the heat records still exceed the cold records by 7068. At the current rate, the cumulative cold records will catch up to the hot ones in about 491 days, or a little over 16 months.

As usual, focusing on the short term obscures the true picture. Leaving aside the fact that the area of the entire U.S. is less than 2% of the area of the Earth, the latest available December month-to-date average temperature (through the 12th) shows that more of the country is near to above normal than below. Furthermore, the areas with the heaviest snow are not particularly cold.

As was the case with the Mid Atlantic blizzards of last winter, the story here is not temperature, but rather precipitation. The number of daily precipitation records so far in December is 1036, nearly 3 times the number of cold records. On December 1 alone, for example, 334 precipitation records were set, nearly as many as the cold records for the entire month to date. On Sunday, the 12th, the day of the Metrodome collapse, 192 precipitation records were set, vs. only one temperature record. That's right, Jamestown Muni Airport in North Dakota (KJMS) recorded a low of -20°F, surpassing its previous record of -16°F set in 1960. Meanwhile, 13 stations in Minnesota alone were setting daily precipitation records, 5 of them with histories of over 110 years.

Images (click to enlarge): Cumulative excess of daily high temperature vs. low temperature records since Jan. 1, 2010; Total daily temperature and precipitation records Dec. 1-13, 2010; U.S. monthly average temperature departure from normal through Dec. 12. CapitalClimate charts from National Climatic Data Center data, NCEP/NOAA data via ESRL.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Syracuse Snowless String Snapped Sharply

The National Weather Service reports that the 1" of snow which fell at Syracuse, NY on December 3 ended a string of 280 days with less than an inch of snow which began on February 26. This was 7 days less than the record of 287 days from February 26 to December 8 last year.

Since that first snowfall of the season, Syracuse has set 3 consecutive daily snowfall records:
Date    Amount  Old Record Year
Dec. 6 12.2" 8.8" 2000
Dec. 7 9.3" 7.0" 1958
Dec. 8 14.9" 8.9" 1961
Through Dec. 9, measurable snow has now fallen at Syracuse every day this month except for the 2nd. The monthly total so far of 47.7" is over 50% above the average December total of 28.6". On the other hand, this is still well below the top 5 snowiest Decembers since 1950:
1. 70.3  2000
2. 64.6 1989
3. 52.9 2005
4. 52.5 1969
5. 51.9 1970
The December daily snowfall record at Syracuse is 18.6", set on the 30th in 1997. The annual average snowfall is 121.1".

Another extended bout of lake-effect snow is likely next week.

As of last evening, NWS reports show 5-day storm totals approaching 5 feet in a few places:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 12/4-12/9/2010****************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT


NEW YORK

...BROOME COUNTY...
BINGHAMTON REG 21.7 700 AM 12/9 BINGHAMTON AIRPORT
WHITNEY POINT 16.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.7 SSE
WINDSOR 13.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 8 SE
CHENANGO FORKS 11.1 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3 SE
BINGHAMTON 8.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.8 SW
VESTAL 7.9 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2.8 SSE

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
AUBURN 20.3 1023 AM 12/9 COOP
CAYUGA 16.0 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3.2 ESE
AUBURN 15.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 8.3 SSE
LOCKE 13.3 1029 AM 12/9 COOP

...CHEMUNG COUNTY...
VAN ETTEN 1.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.3 ENE

...CHENANGO COUNTY...
SHERBURNE 28.3 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3.6 NNE
SHERBURNE 16.2 1030 AM 12/9 COOP
NORWICH 8.1 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 5.4 W

...CORTLAND COUNTY...
FREETOWN 15.0 1001 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
MCGRAW 15.0 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 5.2 SE
WILLET 14.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.8 E
MARATHON 13.1 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1 NW
MARATHON 8.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.7 WSW

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
HAMDEN 12.3 1005 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

...MADISON COUNTY...
FENNER 50.6 827 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
CAZENOVIA 48.7 838 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
MORRISVILLE 35.2 1040 AM 12/9 COOP MRRN6
MUNNSVILLE 32.0 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2 SW
LAKEPORT 26.5 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
CAZENOVIA 25.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2.9 SE
EARLVILLE 19.7 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.4 W
CANASTOTA 16.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.9 S
ONEIDA 15.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.7 NNE

...ONEIDA COUNTY...
DURHAMVILLE 17.9 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3.5 NNW
VERNON 17.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.4 NNW
POINT ROCK 15.5 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.6 SE
NEW HARTFORD 10.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.8 S
STOKES CORNER 10.2 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.4 NE
LAKE DELTA 10.1 1031 AM 12/9 COOP
WHITESBORO 8.9 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3.9 NE
ROME 7.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 4.8 SSE
WESTERNVILLE 7.7 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2 NW
WESTMORELAND 7.6 1030 AM 12/9 SPOTTER
HOLLAND PATENT 7.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.5 WSW
BOONVILLE 3.5 1032 AM 12/9 COOP
BOONVILLE 3.3 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 8 E
MARCY 2.0 804 AM 12/9 COCORAHS

...ONONDAGA COUNTY...
DE WITT 58.2 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.4 WSW
SYRACUSE 58.2 1009 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
LIVERPOOL 54.7 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 3.1 N
CLAY 52.1 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 4.6 NW
VILLAGE GREEN 49.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2.6 ESE
SYRACUSE 46.1 500 PM 12/9 SYRACUSE AIRPORT
CAMILLUS 45.2 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1 W
CLAY 44.2 1010 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
FAYETTEVILLE 40.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.6 W
MARCELLUS 36.1 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.6 E
BREWERTON 34.4 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.5 ESE
SYRACUSE 33.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.4 SE
BREWERTON 23.5 1032 AM 12/9 COOP BWTN6
JAMESVILLE 22.3 1012 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
POMPEY 22.3 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 2 NNW
TULLY 17.0 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 1.7 WSW

...OTSEGO COUNTY...
HARTWICK 18.8 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
WORCESTER 18.5 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 4 SSW
COOPERSTOWN 17.6 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.3 S
UNADILLA FORKS 16.8 1014 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
RICHFIELD SPRINGS 13.5 700 AM 12/9 COCORAHS 0.5 ESE
MARYLAND 10.9 1033 AM 12/9 COOP
NEW BERLIN 6.0 900 AM 12/9 COCORAHS
Image (click to enlarge): Clinton Square in downtown Syracuse, Wednesday morning (Dec. 8), from Syracuse Post-Standard.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Drought Dispatch: Florida's Fall Increased Intensity


The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report shows that the intensity of the ongoing drought increased in Florida through the last reporting week of November and the end of meteorological fall. As of November 30, only 4% of the state (in the extreme southeast) was free of drought conditions, down from 8% the previous week and 74% at the beginning of autumn. The portion of the state in Extreme Drought (Category D3), the second highest category, was 8%, up from 2% the previous week.

Dry conditions in Florida began to become established in mid summer, and they have steadily increased since then. Although percentages of normal precipitation increased somewhat in November from October's ultra bone-dry levels, particularly in a small area on the southwestern coast and panhandle, they were well below 75% over much of the state.

November precipitation was substantially substandard in most of east-central Florida. The National Weather Service (NWS) reports that the measurable rainfall on November 2 ended a 34-day dry spell at both Orlando and Melbourne. This was the 4th longest rain-free stretch at Orlando on record and the 5th longest at Melbourne. Melbourne was the only major reporting station in the region to report above-average rainfall for the month. The total of 4.62" for the autumn season at Daytona Beach was a new record low, surpassing the 5.37" in 1925.
STATION           NOV 2010      30 YEAR   DEPARTURE     PERCENT OF
RAINFALL NORMAL FROM NORMAL NORMAL

DAYTONA BEACH 0.95" 3.03" -2.08" 31%
(DAB)
ORLANDO 1.68" 2.32" -0.64" 72%
(MCO)
MELBOURNE 3.43" 3.12" +0.31" 110%
(MLB)
VERO BEACH 2.43" 3.04" -0.61" 80%
(VRB)
CLERMONT 1.67" 2.40" -0.73" 70%
(CLRF1)
DELAND 1.74" 2.72" -0.98" 64%
(DELF1)
SANFORD 1.37" 2.96" -1.59" 46%
(SFNF1)
TITUSVILLE 1.71" 3.45" -1.74" 50%
(TITF1)
FORT PIERCE 1.38" 3.50" -2.12" 39%
(FPCF1)
STUART 2.29" 4.23" -1.94" 54%
(STRF1)
Images (click to enlarge): Florida drought monitor for November 30, 2010 from USDA/NOAA--intensity ranges from D0/Abnormally Dry (yellow) through D3/Extreme Drought (red); Florida percent of normal precipitation for October and November 2010, from National Weather Service

Friday, December 3, 2010

Shovel Off to Buffalo: Lake Effect Snow on Steroids Reaches Over 3 Feet, Strands Motorists



The National Weather Service (NWS) reports that huge lake effect snowfalls have been observed over a narrow band south of Buffalo, NY in the last 2 days. The prodigious precipitation results from a perfect alignment of Arctic air flow over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie.

In the 48 hours ending 8 am today (Dec. 3), as much as 42" of snow was measured by a NWS employee in the town of Depew. The Associated Press, via The Weather Channel, reports that amounts varied widely over small distances, however:
Within the City of Buffalo itself, totals ranged from a dusting in the northern half of the city to an inch or two downtown to over 2 feet in south Buffalo!
Associated Press, via USA Today, reports that motorists were stranded as long as 20 hours on the New York State Thruway:
Emergency procedures will be reviewed after a lake-effect snowstorm and a flawed response left hundreds of motorists stranded for hours on a highway, the head of the New York State Thruway Authority said Friday.

Executive Director Michael Fleischer said the agency should have closed nearly two dozen non-toll entrance ramps to Interstate 90 much sooner after jackknifed tractor-trailers blocked traffic just east of Buffalo. He also said officials should have done a better job alerting drivers that delays loomed ahead and shouldn't have waited so long to get help to the stranded motorists, some stuck for 20 hours or more.
Here are some of the more outrageous amounts reported by the NWS from Erie County:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

...ERIE COUNTY...
DEPEW 42.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
BUFFALO 39.0 1000 AM 12/3 SE CORNER BUFFALO
ELMA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
WEST SENECA 30.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
LANCASTER 29.5 1059 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
LANCASTER 29.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
WEST SENECA 24.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
MARILLA 23.0 800 AM 12/3 SOUTHERN PORTION
LANCASTER 22.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
BLASDELL 20.3 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
BUFFALO 20.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS - FIRST WARD
WALES 16.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
AKRON 14.0 900 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
ELMA CENTER 13.0 800 AM 12/3 NWS EMPLOYEE
EAST AURORA 10.7 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
BUFFALO 9.2 800 AM 12/3 AIRPORT
BOSTON 7.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
GLENWOOD 6.5 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
WILLIAMSVILLE 5.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
CLARENCE CENTER 4.5 800 AM 12/3 SPOTTER
WILLIAMSVILLE 2.8 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
TONAWANDA 1.2 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
KENMORE 1.0 800 AM 12/3 COCORAHS
Images (click to enlarge): Traffic blocked by heavy snow on the New York State Thruway near Buffalo, NY, Dec. 2, 2010, AP photo via The Weather Channel; Total snowfall, Dec. 1-3, 2010, from NWS; Surface weather map at 8 am EDT, Dec. 2, 2010

November Temperature Extremes: Heat Records Far Exceed Cold For 9th Consecutive Month

For related record temperature posts, see:
As they have for every month in 2010 except January and February, U.S. daily maximum temperature records far exceeded minimum records in November. Thanks to a cold surge in the last week of the month, the ratio of heat records to cold records declined to 1.8:1, but the ratio of 2.7:1 for the year to date is still well above that of the most recent decade.

Heat records dominated cold records by a wide margin for most of the month, reaching a peak of 126 on the 23rd. Daily cold records, on the other hand, peaked at 90 on the 25th.

Preliminary average temperature data for November from NOAA/NCEP show temperatures near to above average over nearly the entire country. Small areas along the immediate Carolina coast and from central Nevada through western Arizona were the only regions with temperatures more than 1°C below the 1968-1996 climatological average. Temperatures were at least 1°C above average over most of the area from the Rockies to the Appalachians, with the warmest temperatures of 3°C or more above average across the northern Great Lakes northward into a large portion of southern and central Canada.

More detailed temperature analyses should be available from the NOAA National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) around the middle of next week.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Total number of daily high temperature, low temperature, and high minimum temperature records set in the U.S. for spring 2010 (March-April-May) and monthly from June through November 2010, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
- Daily numbers of high and low temperature records set in the U.S. for November 2010, data source as above
- November 2010 temperature departure from climatological average from NOAA/NCEP via ESRL

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Yet Another Spin of the Washington Weathercaster Revolving Door

The dcrtv blog reports another new face in the weather department at CBS affiliate WUSA-TV, Channel 9, in Washington:
DCRTV hears that Channel 9/WUSA has hired Anny Hong [April 2009 video below] as weekend meteorologist and weekday reporter. She comes from the KOVR/KMAX TV combo in Sacramento. She's also worked at TVers in Fresno, Eugene OR, Syracuse, and Watertown NY. She interned at the BBC in London and CNN in Seoul. She is a graduate of Syracuse University where she double-majored in broadcast journalism and policy studies. Hong received her broadcast meteorology degree from Mississippi State University.....
She has most recently been living in Paris:
After working as an Anchor/Reporter at CBS13, Anny Hong is fulfilling her dream of living in Paris. She moved to France to cover stories in Europe and attend the prestigious Sorbonne University to learn French. She will also be taking cooking courses at the world-renowned Cordon Bleu culinary institution. Along with going to school, she'll be blogging about her life and experiences in France. She will also be Skyping and reporting LIVE from various events and interesting locations on Good Day Sacramento and CBS13. Local high school students from several schools that offer French language courses will also be Skyping with Anny on a regular basis.

Colbert Contemplates Congressional Commerce Committee Chair Choices

Stephen Colbert recently surveyed the candidates for chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee in the new Congress beginning in January. The analysis focused on Rep. Barton of Texas and Rep. Shimkus of Illinois: "Joe Barton is an expert on the wind industry, and John Shimkus knows that God will not destroy the Earth." Shimkus is awarded the famous "Colbert bump."

The Colbert ReportMon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Chair Apparent
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes2010 ElectionMarch to Keep Fear Alive

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

"North Sea Effect": UK November Snow Deepest Since 1965;
Widespread Travel Disruption

Dec. 1 Update: The November 26-30 average sea level pressure shows an excess of more than 35 mb between Greenland and Iceland along with a deficit of 15-20 mb over central Europe. This intensifies the easterly and northeasterly air flow over the UK. The accompanying map of average wind speed and direction shows the strongest winds over the North Sea and to the north and west of the British Isles and Ireland.

The BBC reports (Snow and ice causes disruption as cold spell continues) this evening:
Temperatures are set to plunge again overnight after one of the coldest starts to December in more than 20 years has caused chaos across the UK.

Some 4,000 schools have been closed, and Edinburgh and Gatwick airports will be shut until at least Thursday.
Images (click to enlarge): View of Gatwick Airport from BBC; 5-day average sea-level pressure and winds for November 26-30 from NOAA/NCEP operational data

Original post:
The Met Office has announced that the recent UK snow is the deepest since 1965. Ewen McCallum, the Chief Meteorologist, explained the atmospheric circulation patterns causing the intense early season cold and snowfall:
Normally, our winds come from the west keeping our winters relatively mild. However, during November (like last winter) we have seen a large area of high pressure develop in the Atlantic, causing a "block" to the westerly winds that tend to keep us that little bit milder. As a result this has allowed very cold Arctic air to move south across mainland Europe.

At this time of year, the long nights over the landmass of Europe cool down rapidly and so the air has remained bitterly cold. However, this air has had to cross a relatively warm North Sea to get to the UK and has therefore picked up heat and moisture. Because the air is so cold, this has resulted in snow showers forming and with the wind coming from the east, it is coastal areas along the North Sea that have seen the heaviest snow. The localised nature of showers means that the amount of lying snow has varied greatly from place to place.
The BBC reports:
Hundreds of schools have closed, driving conditions have been hazardous, and rail and air passengers have been delayed, as the snow moves south.

The Met Office has issued heavy snow warnings for Yorkshire and Humber, east Midlands, east and north-east England, London and south-east England.
The surface/500 mb pressure chart (rotated for clarity) shows very strong high pressure extending from south of Greenland eastward to Scandinavia. Easterly flow to the south is bringing cold air from the European continent westward across the UK.

Other coverage:

Sunday, November 28, 2010

November Cold Records Set in UK

The UK Met Office reports that a northeasterly flow of Arctic air has set November low temperature records in the UK:
Last night saw November minimum temperature records fall across the country. Most notably both Wales and Northern Ireland recorded the coldest November night since records began. In Wales, temperatures fell to -18.0 °C at Llysdinam, near Llandrindod Wells, Powys. Northern Ireland recorded -9.5 °C at Loch Fea.

Scotland recorded minimum temperature of -15.3 °C at Loch Glascarnoch, whilst England recorded -13.5 °C at Topcliffe in North Yorkshire.

The UK's lowest ever recorded temperature in November was - 23.3 °C recorded in Braemar, in the Scottish Highlands, on November 14, 1919.
Heavy snow is forecast for northern and eastern portions of the country this evening and tonight:
Heavy snow will continue to affect southern and central Scotland, northeast England and the east coast of England. Snow showers possibly also fringing into the south coast of England. Elsewhere very cold again but largely dry with widespread frost.
The BBC reports that travel conditions have been impacted by "the earliest widespread snowfall since 1993."

The Northern Hemisphere surface and upper-level (500 mb) chart for noon GMT, November 28, shows very strong surface high pressure (1039 mb) centered over Iceland with easterly flow bringing cold air westward over the UK.

Image (click to enlarge): Scene on the A1 highway near Durham in northeastern UK from BBC; Northern Hemisphere surface/500 mb pressure chart from Unisys

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Featured Question: Frequency of Dec. 2 Snow

Today's featured featured question arrives via email:

What is the frequency of snow falling on December 2 over the past 70 years [in Washington]?

Since 1940, there have been 8 instances of frozen precipitation reported at Washington National on Dec. 2, but only 2 of these were measurable. Only one was over 1" (1.8" in 1952, which is also the all-time record for the date going back to 1888). There was also 1" in 1936.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

One More 2010-11 Winter Weather Outlook (Topper Shutt/Howard Bernstein)

See here for other seasonal forecasts.

WUSA-TV (Channel 9) meteorologists Topper Shutt and Howard Bernstein have joined the La Niña bandwagon with their winter weather outlook this evening (warmer than average and less than average snowfall).

In living color:

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.