Winter Preview Continues

Now

Partly cloudy, windy, cold. Persistent winds kept last night's lows from being quite as cold as expected, but temperatures this afternoon have had a hard time maintaining the upper 40s in most of the Washington metro region. By mid afternoon, National was 46°, and Dulles was 44°. The highs were: National 48°, Dulles 46°, BWI 46°. The northwesterly wind gusting frequently over 25 mph has also brought drier air along with the cold; dewpoints are mainly in the low 20s with even a few upper teens. The nearest precipitation on radar consists of some snow flurries over the mountains of western Pennsylvania.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cold overnight, then increasing clouds and milder. The drier air along with diminishing winds should bring lower lows tonight, near 35° downtown ranging to some upper 20s in 'burbland. A weak "clipper" system diving southeastward from the southern Great Lakes tomorrow will produce increasing clouds and somewhat milder temperatures by tomorrow afternoon with highs 49-53° and a chance of light rain or snow showers late in the day or at night.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend and towards Thanksgiving, scroll on down to Matt's post below.

Winter Outlooks

• Matt reviewed Bob Ryan's winter outlook from last night in his earlier post.
• According to an on-air promo, the WUSA-TV, channel 9, outlook will be on the 5pm newscast tonight.
• Stay tuned here for the CapitalWeather.com winter outlook, coming soon.

Mediarology/Climate Corner/Political Science Trifecta

In what may be some kind of a Guinness World Record, 3 out of the 6 front-page articles in today's WaPo involve climate science and related policy:

• "Calif. Court Rejects SUV Mileage Rules" (above the fold): "A federal court in California yesterday rejected the Bush administration's new fuel economy standards for light trucks including SUVs, ruling that the government failed to take into account the effects of carbon emissions and their possible link to global warming."
• "Katrina, Rita Caused Forestry Disaster": The forest destruction caused by Rita and Katrina "was so massive that researchers say it will add significantly to the global greenhouse gas buildup -- ultimately putting as much carbon from dying vegetation into the air as the rest of the nation's forest takes out in a year of photosynthesis." (According to the article abstract in today's issue of Science Magazine, the storms caused "mortality and severe structural damage to ~320 million large trees totaling 105 teragrams of carbon, representing 50 to 140% of the net annual U.S. forest tree carbon sink.")
• "Scientists Fault Climate Exhibit Changes": "Some government scientists have complained that officials at the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural History took steps to downplay global warming in a 2006 exhibit on the Arctic to avoid a political backlash, according to documents obtained by The Washington Post."

Programming note:PM Update will be off next week. Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone!

Approaching August Averages

Now

Sunny, warm, less humid. Behind a weak cold front which has now moved off the Mid Atlantic coast, conditions are much more pleasant today than the weekend's sauna, which saw dewpoints at times above 75°. Temperatures this afternoon in the upper 80s (87° at 5pm at both National and Dulles) are near or a little above seasonable averages, and dewpoints are generally in the low 60s. Radar is clear in all directions for several hundred miles.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, warm. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will range from the upper 60s downtown to the low 60s in the cooler 'burbs. A more easterly wind direction tomorrow creates some problems with the temperature forecast, but as of now the models are virtually unanimous in keeping skies mainly sunny, so highs should range from 83-88° with only a little more humidity. (Yes, I do hesitate to depart from Jason's always excellent forecast, but I also have some good company on this.)

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the holiday weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It could possibly develop slowly during the next couple of days.

Mediarology

The PBS science series NOVA commemorates the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina by rebroadcasting its excellent program, "Storm That Drowned a City". Check your local listings, but it's scheduled for 8pm tomorrow on WETA 26 and WMPT 22. The chart to the right, from pbs.org, shows the extent of the Katrina flooding by superimposing the blue-outlined area, from White Oak nearly to Tyson's Corner and southeast to Oxon Hill, on a map of the DC metro region.

As Jason noted yesterday, weather got almost as much attention as the play action at Saturday night's Redskins-Ravens game. Congratulations to WUSA-9's Howard Bernstein on his excellent coverage of the event. Tune in here at CapitalWeather.com on game days for the SkinsCast.

Saving Private August

Now

Cloudy, a little warmer, humid. Despite the "Partly sunny, High 85" on the front page of your dead-tree WaPo this morning, it's another cloudy and cool, but sticky, afternoon in the Washington metro area. (Wonder how that happened; those lazy drones at the National Weather Service and their freedom-hating lackeys at CapitalWeather.com said "upper 70s". Oh yeah, here it is in small print on the back page of the Metro section: "SOURCES: AccuWeather, Inc. . . ." I would have sworn I read somewhere (scroll down) that socialized meteorology was Bad for America.)

Although the wind still has an easterly component, it's been more out of the south than recently, and some thinning of the low overcast has allowed temperatures to reach the mid and upper 70s by mid afternoon. At 3:00, you'd have had to go as far south as Richmond to see a temperature of 80°. Dewpoints are even more muggy than yesterday, in the sticky upper 60s to 70°. If you opened your windows, you're probably going to need air conditioning to get the humidity down. Radar is showing an impressive area of storms and an associated warning box northeast of Pittsburgh, but it's dry east of the mountains.

As we've been promising and Jason explains in his post below, more August-like temperatures are on the way and should be here for the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Decreasing clouds, humid, warmer. Without much of an incentive (maybe they should be privatized) to leave town just yet, the clouds will persist tonight, and the high dewpoints should contribute to mist and fog in some places with lows in the upper 60s to near 70°. Although the clouds will last into the morning, indications are good that some sun in the afternoon tomorrow will allow temperatures to finally get back to the mid and upper 80s, perhaps even 90° for a high.

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

Dean was declared dead, and the last advisory was issued at 11pm last night. No new development is expected in the Atlantic for the next couple of days.

Political Science

Bob King, who covers hurricanes for the Palm Beach Post in his Eye on the Storm blog, does an excellent job of deconstructing the Faux News war on the National Hurricane Center in his post yesterday. He includes a link to some unofficial, but absolutely devastating, data on the issue of AccuWeather vs. Hurricane Center accuracy on Katrina (and Rita, as well). In 5 cases (6 for the feds), the AccuWeather 5-day position error for Katrina was more than double that of the Hurricane Center.

Windy Cold At Bat; Wintry Mix On Deck

*Winter Storm Watch in Effect Late Saturday Night Through Sunday Night*

Now

Windy, cold. We're in the late innings, but winter isn't ready to put away the bat just yet. Winds peaking as high as 55 mph overnight have made it feel a lot colder than the near 40° temperatures this afternoon in the Washington metro area, especially after the relatively balmy experience of 3 consecutive days above average (and above freezing). Highs were 41° at National, 39° at Dulles, and 38° at BWI.

A low pressure area just now becoming organized in the central Rockies will deepen and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes, bringing with it the threat of some wintry precipitation in the Mid Atlantic region Sunday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, less windy, cold. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, lows tonight should be from the low 20s downtown to the mid and upper teens in 'burbland. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and continued cold, less windy than today with highs 42-45°

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, including Sunday's potential wintry mix, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Tropical Topics

Winter may be still batting, but tropical season is just over 90 days away. Here at PM Update, we're getting in the mood by starting to read Ivor van Heerden's "The Storm", a scientist's on-the-scene report of the Katrina experience. From the tone of the introduction, it appears that he will be pulling no punches in his analysis of what went on.

Meanwhile, yesterday the National Hurricane Center published their annual post mortem analysis of forecast accuracy for last year's storm season. The good news: Atlantic track forecast accuracy set new records in the range from 12-72 hr., beat each individual dynamical model, and only slightly trailed the consensus models. The bad news: Intensity forecasting continues to be a formidable problem. Intensity accuracy was close to the average of the last 5 years, but skill levels (improvement over average conditions, or climatology and persistence) were "down sharply."

Chart of hurricane track forecast accuracy in nautical miles at 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hr., years 1990-2006, from NHC

Brief Cold Shot on the Way

Now

Sunny, seasonable. Southerly breezes gusting over 20 mph at times have lifted temperatures back to seasonable levels in the Washington metro area this afternoon under sunny skies. Highs were 51° at both National and Dulles as well as at BWI. A new cold shot arriving late tomorrow will be sharp but short in duration as milder air returns by the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, not as cold. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be in the mid 30s in town to near 30 in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with highs in the upper 40s but turning windy and colder by late in the afternoon. There is a slight chance of isolated snow flurries.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

As indicated here yesterday, Bill Proenza was announced today as the new Director of the National Hurricane Center. Proenza was appointed Director of the National Weather Service Southern Region in 1999. He was selected as a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society in 2003.

Photo of Bill Proenza from NOAA

A report today by the Government Accountability Office says that FEMA has misspent at least $1 billion of Hurricane Katrina aid on fraud and abuse. The amount includes $20 million paid to thousands of people who filed claims for the same damage from both Katrina and Rita.

Ernestly Waiting for Rain

Now

Muggy. After missing by 1° on each of the weekend days, the official Washington temperature rose to 90° this afternoon for the 14th time this month, well over the 30-year average of 10.1 days of 90° or more in August. To the south, mid 90s were common in central and southern Virginia. Meanwhile, an area of showers and thunderstorms advancing toward D.C. and vicinity from the west threatens to end our dry spell as a mainly stationary front tries to work its way southward from the Mason-Dixon line.

Tonight and Tomorrow

More mugginess. There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms through early evening and a 40% chance the rest of the night. Lows will be in the mid 70s in urban areas down to near 70° in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will again be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s to near 90° and a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Scroll down to Jason's post below for the outlook through the weekend.

Tropical Topics

The disruption to Tropical Storm Ernesto's circulation by the mountains of Haiti and then Cuba plus the inability to fly reconnaissance over Cuba have made it hard to pin down the storm's track, but it is now emerging back over warm waters north of eastern Cuba. The current forecast track brings it northward as a tropical storm along the southeastern coast of Florida Wednesday morning. The following track is quite uncertain. The 2pm forecast which had the storm moving back out to sea after brushing the Outer Banks has been replaced at 5pm with a more westerly path which brings the remnants of the storm as a depression up through central Virginia and a little to the west of the DC metro area late Friday. This could help bring some much-needed rain to the area. Stay tuned in the next several days as the situation becomes clearer.

Broadcast News

Spike Lee's documentary on Katrina, "When the Levees Broke" is being rebroadcast tomorrow night, the anniversary of Katrina, at 8pm.

August Anniversary Approaches

Now

Warm, a bit more humid. Temperatures in the upper 80s this afternoon are similar to those of yesterday here in the Washington metro area, but dewpoints have crept up from the upper 50s to the low and even mid 60s. Depending on your personal tolerance of humidity, you may need AC tonight even if you had it off last night. Regional radar is very dry, except for some scattered storms southwest of Richmond.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Similar to today. Lows tonight will be near 70 in the warmer urban areas to the mid 60s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be a lot like today, but with slightly higher humidity, highs in the upper 80s.

Scroll down to Jason's post below for the outlook through the weekend.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Depression 4 was moving west-northwestward today at longitude 27.5W, away from the Cape Verde Islands. Its maximum sustained winds of 35 mph late this afternoon were only a little below tropical storm strength, which it is expected to reach "very soon." If it does become named, it will be called Debby.

The Weather Channel presented some statistics last night on storms which become named east of longitude 35W. Of those 34 storms in the last 20 years, only 4 reached landfall in the U.S., but several (perhaps all; I'm quoting from memory here) were major, including 2004's Ivan.

Broadcast News

The second part (acts III and IV) of Spike Lee's documentary on Katrina, "When the Levees Broke" is on HBO at 9 tonight. If you missed the first half last night, the entire 4 hours will be rebroadcast next Tuesday, the anniversary of Katrina, at 8pm. The program was previewed in yesterday's WaPo.

The Discovery Channel is presenting "Surviving Katrina" on Sunday at 9pm.

This is also Katrina Week on The Weather Channel, with various Storm Stories and other documentary features.

Photo of director Spike Lee from AP, via washingtonpost.com

April Fuel? Tornado Watch in Effect Until Midnight

6:40 Update: The line of thunderstorms has now filled in from central Pennsylvania southward across central Maryland and into Virginia between Charlottesville and Richmond. The leading edge is in western Montgomery and central Loudoun County. Check the comments section for some specific reports around the region.

5:30 Update: The line of intense storms has now built southward across western Maryland and the West Virginia panhandle. Some potentially severe storms could reach the area, especially the northern suburbs, in the next couple of hours. Stay tuned to the comments section for further updates.

Showers associated with a warm front extending southeastward from a low pressure area over the Great Lakes briefly passed through the Washington DC metro area last night and this morning. However, rainfall was extremely light, just 0.01" in each of the two precipitation episodes. It was only enough to moisten the pavement and raise the dewpoint from bone-dry to more normal levels. Although radar echoes were more impressive to the southeast, reported amounts were still very light, with Norfolk, for example, receiving only 0.10".

Surface weather map at 1pm today from IntelliWeather. Click on the image to animate.

Another line of showers ahead of the cold front moving through the Ohio Valley was in the mountains of West Virginia at mid afternoon. A narrow portion of the line east of Pittsburgh around 4pm was potentially severe, but south of the Mason-Dixon line, it was looking somewhat ragged. With some fuel from the abundant sunshine in the area, that may be enough to set off some much needed showers and thunderstorms this evening. Temperatures were at or above 70 in most locations by 4pm.

Tonight and Tomorrow

There is a 50% chance of showers and possibly thundershowers late this afternoon or this evening. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 40s. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, windy, and much cooler with highs only in the mid 50s.

Art and Science

Weather forecasting is often as much of an art as a science, and the current (March) issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society features a painting based on an infrared image of hurricane Katrina. The art is the work of Susan Voss, a PhD entomologist at Emory University and the mother of AccuWeather and CNBC meteorologist Katrina Voss. Several of her works are available for purchase at modest prices on eBay, and 20% of the proceeds are donated to animal disaster victims.

Painting "0245Z-050829" (11" x 14" acrylic on canvas) by Susan Voss

Fat Tuesday

An extra layer of body fat might not have seemed like such a bad idea in the Washington DC metro area today as temperatures struggled to make it to the mid 40s forecast here yesterday, despite the strong sun of waning winter. Not too far away in south-central Virginia and nearby North Carolina, there were hints of the approaching season; Farmville, South Hill, Emporia, and Roanoke Rapids were all well into the 60s.

Also as featured in this space yesterday, any flakes which fell last night around the area were extremely few and far between, amounting to at most a dusting. The inexorable push of warmer air from the southwest may set off a few sprinkles or snow showers late tonight or tomorrow morning, but amounts will be negligible.

The next significant precipitation event is likely to occur around the Monday time frame. This afternoon's model predictions coming in as I post keep the storm development very far to the south, however. Stay tuned during the week as the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball gets warmed up for a possible last workout of the season.

Tonight and Tomorrow

For tonight, clouds will increase towards morning with lows near 31. There is a slight chance of light rain or snow showers late tonight or tomorrow morning. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with highs near 49.

Katrina's Continuing Legacy

Six months after Katrina, the WaPo notes the effect of the storm's legacy on the Mardi Gras celebrations which end today on Fat Tuesday.

The PBS News Hour last night featured the devastating effects of Katrina on New Orleans' hospital system, especially Charity Hospital. Previously the city's only fully equipped trauma center, it is now operating out of tents set up in the Convention Center. Dr. Peter Deblieux, director of emergency medical services at the hospital, says,

It's not appropriate. We are caring for patients in a tent. It's understandable a month out -- might be understandable two to three months out. And here it is six months operating within a tent system to deliver care to our patients. They deserve appropriate health care: Not health care within tents; not health care within a fragmented, broken system.

NPR's Fresh Air with Terry Gross today has an interview with Jeanne Dumestre, a founder of the legendary New Orleans music club Tipitina's. Her home was seriously damaged by the storm. The show also includes a profile of pioneering jazz pianist Professor Longhair and an interview with musician and songwriter Allen Toussaint, who is trying to help rebuild the city through music. The show aired this afternoon on WETA-FM and is repeated on WAMU-FM at 3am tonight. Streaming audio is also available on the NPR web site.

Hurricane season begins in 92 days.

"But With a Different Feeling"

Here's the statistic Bob Ryan was probably referring to last night: In 54 years of history, Washington National has averaged 0.2 thunderstorms in January out of the 30.6 total per year. This is now the third time thunder has been reported this month. Thunder was last observed in January before this year on New Year's Day, 2003.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data

Following the fast-moving cold front which passed through last night, it's a blustery January day in the Washington DC metro area, but temperatures are close to seasonal levels, in the low 40s. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph in some places are making it feel a lot colder. With a low of 35 last night, whether today becomes only the second day this month of below-average temperatures depends on how cold it gets before midnight.

A few snow flurries are widely scattered around the area, but most of the activity is west of the Shenandoah Valley. Hagerstown was reporting 1¾ mile visibility in light snow around 3:30.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lows tonight should be in the upper 20s with partly cloudy skies and diminishing winds. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs in the low 40s.

Broadcast News

Set the TiVo! From the WaPo TV listings comes the news that Doug Hill has escaped the 2½ minute straightjacket to host a 30 minute special about the WeatherBug network tonight. The show is on at 8:00, Channel 7. Way to go, Doug!

DC Comics

Tom Toles has a cartoon in today's WaPo on the subject of the Katrina reports we mentioned yesterday.

Fabulous Fall, Failing Forty, Finding Fault, Fixing Funding

There's not much to say about such fine November weather except, "Look for more and better tomorrow." If you are reading tomorrow's afternoon update from work, it won't be because we didn't warn you! Start thinking up your excuses now for leaving early. Temperatures which just nudged or slightly exceeded 70 today will make a more emphatic push into the 70s tomorrow. As Josh noted in the previous comments, the Official Observation still has not reached 40 degrees this season, although some places have seen readings in the 30s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight's lows will range from the mid 40s in town to near 40 in outlying areas. Tomorrow's sunny skies will drive temperatures to the low 70s, possibly mid 70s in the warmer locations.

More Hurricane Fallout

It's clear that the implications of this year's record hurricane season will play a major role in the public policy debate for a long time. Today's WaPo has an article, "Levees' Construction Faulted In New Orleans Flood Inquiry", which describes the preliminary findings of some expert studies indicating that design or construction failures led to the flooding from Katrina.

NOAA Administrator Conrad C. Lautenbacher has recently responded to the criticism of NOAA and the National Weather Service which was made in a series of Miami Herald articles. Dan discussed this issue (under the heading "A Scathing Review") here a couple of weeks ago.

On the other hand, the Herald reported on Sunday that $25 million has been proposed for improvement in hurricane forecasting.

"Included in the request are new equipment for hurricane hunter planes, more buoys to track ocean conditions, a redesign of the sensors dropped into storms, repairs to damaged equipment, and most notably, another hurricane hunter plane."

While this request deals with equipment, meteorologists say more is needed in the form of:

"more flight crews and flight hours for hurricane hunter planes, more Hurricane Center forecasters, more scientists to build a new hurricane computer model, and equipment and staff members for NOAA's Hurricane Research Division in Miami, whose base budget hasn't topped $3.5 million in more than two decades."

Can you believe NOAA is spending only $3.5 million per year on hurricane research? Every time something like this comes along, it reminds me why I left the government after only 5 years of civilian employment, even though I would be getting a very nice pension by now if I had stayed.

Afternoon Update

This afternoon's weather map shows a large high pressure area dominating most of the U.S. There is virtually no precipitation anywhere east of the Rockies except for some showers in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and northernmost Minnesota.

The rain associated with the cold front which we discussed yesterday did bring the lightest of accumulations to the western and northern fringes of the Washington metro area. Potomac Falls HS in Sterling, VA, for instance, managed to eke out 0.01".

Temperatures this afternoon are seasonable; they range from 60 through the low 60s.

Regional radar image at 10:09pm last night from the Weather Channel.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight, clear skies and light winds will promote cooling to the mid 40s in the city, as low as the mid 30s in some outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny and a little warmer, highs in the upper 60s.

Tropical Beat

"There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time," and none are expected to develop through tomorrow.

Broadcast News: Global Warming Special

Reminder: The PBS global warming special is on tonight at 8pm (both channels 22 and 26 locally). South Carolina ETV, which co-produced the show, has a preview on their web site.

Disaster Recovery

WaPo prints an AP story today reporting that Donald Powell, the chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, has been appointed to "oversee federal efforts to rebuild the U.S. Gulf Coast region devastated by hurricanes Katrina and Rita." Among Mr. Powell's many qualifications for overseeing disaster recovery are:

• Downsizing the FDIC
  
• Running the First National Bank of Amarillo, Texas
  
• Raising over $100K for the Bush campaign

COMET: The Little Web Schoolhouse

One of our objectives here at CapitalWeather is to educate as well as entertain. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed an online educational program called COMET (Cooperative Program for Operational Meteorology). Modules are available for a variety of levels, from kids through operational forecasters. One of the more intriguing hurricane topics is "Community Hurricane Preparedness", in which "the last section is a decision-making exercise in which you, as the emergency manager, must decide when and if to call for an evacuation as a hurricane moves toward your city." Presumably, if you make the right decision, it says, "You're doing a heckuva job."

Becoming Better and Beta

FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT

Today's weather map shows a large high pressure area centered over Ontario and a deep low pressure area (yesterday's nor'easter) centered over the Maritime provinces of Canada. The pressure gradient force between these two features, modified by the Coriolis force, is producing a geostrophic wind in the form of strong northwesterly breezes over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states. Here in the Washington metro area, winds have been gusting as high as 26 mph, keeping temperatures in the mid 50s despite abundant October sunshine. Overall, it's a much better day than yesterday.

Chart by CapitalWeather.com from NWS data
Yesterday's 0.59" of rain in the Official Bucket puts the new record for October precipitation at 9.41", vs. the previous record of 8.81" in 1937. This month is now tied for 22nd wettest overall in 135 years of record in Washington.


Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight, diminishing winds and clear skies will help temperatures dip to the coldest levels so far this season: near 41 inside the Beltway, as low as the mid 30s in the outer suburbs. There is a frost advisory in effect for the western and northern suburbs. Temperatures will have a hard time rebounding tomorrow as clouds increase and highs remain in the mid 50s.

Beta on Deck

That low pressure area in the southwest Caribbean is showing more signs of becoming Beta. The afternoon tropical weather discussion from NHC points out the "hallmarks of development": dropping pressure, curved convection bands on satellite becoming better defined. It's most likely an artifact, but the latest image I'm viewing as I write this shows an eye-like feature; it's just northwest of the label for longitude 80W.

Media Mutters

Once again, the WaPo trashes science for the sake of generating "news". It took 2 "Staff Writers" to find enough morons to produce a story on how some Florida residents were "surprised" by the strength of Wilma, particularly on the east coast. Even the mayor of Fort Lauderdale is quoted as saying he expected a Category 1 storm. Excuse me, but what part of Category 2 don't you understand? Even if there were any reputable forecasts of Category 1, which I most seriously doubt, the fundamental rule of preparedness is to anticipate one category higher than forecast. In any case, a number of people (I believe 6) died as a result of ignoring the risk of Katrina when it was a Category 1 in the Miami-Dade area. Rather than pointing out the outstanding accuracy of the forecast track even before the turn away from Yucatan, the article digs up a bureaucrat from Silver Spring HQ to mumble about the difficulty of forecasting intensity.

Broadcast News

The dcrtv blog reports the latest chapter in the misadventures of former Channel 9 weatherman and now inmate Bill Kamal. When Kamal's former station in Miami was knocked off the air by Wilma, someone put on an old hurricane preparedness tape by Kamal. The tape ran for about 10 minutes before the mistake was noticed and it was taken off.

Waiting, Watching Wilma

After some morning showers and thunderstorms, a northeast wind, heavy clouds, and a light drizzle are keeping temperatures in the Washington DC metro area in the distinctly non-Octoberish low 50s. (The long term average high for today is 66.) The precipitation is associated with a low pressure area moving slowly eastward through the Ohio Valley and a wave on the front extending eastward from the low to the southeastern Virginia coast. Rainfall amounts in the area have been quite light; the official amount so far is only 0.01", while heavier showers at Dulles produced only 0.12".

Tonight and Tomorrow

More rain is likely (90% chance) tonight with lows within 2 or 3 degrees of the current 52. Chances of rain will decrease to near 50% by late in the day tomorrow, but skies will remain cloudy with highs near 60.

Tropical Beat

Hurricane Wilma continues to pound the Cozumel/Cancun area of the Yucatan peninsula. Early this afternoon, the center of the storm was just 15 miles offshore from Cozumel; maximum winds were 140 mph. By late afternoon, the eye was crossing Cozumel, and the edge of the eyewall was on the coast of the peninsula. The track is still to the northwest at 5 mph, but a turn to the northeast is still expected over the weekend. Fortunately for southern Florida, an extended visit to the Yucatan will weaken the storm. Increasing wind shear over the Gulf of Mexico is another likely cause of weakening. If Wilma does make landfall in Florida as a Category 3 or higher, this would be the first time that 4 major hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. in the same year.

Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is showing signs on satellite imagery of developing a circulation. It could become Tropically Depressed in the next few days. If it turns into a named storm, it would be the record-setting 22nd storm of the season named "Alpha."

Capitol Climate: All-Star Cast!

Clear your calendar for next Tuesday early afternoon. The American Meteorological Society's Environmental Science Seminar Series is presenting a panel discussion on the subject, "Hurricanes: Are They Changing and Are We Adequately Prepared for the Future?"

• Time: Tuesday, October 25, 2005, 12:00 - 2:00 p.m. (Followed by a Reception! Note to starving interns: This sounds like free food.)
  
• Location: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room G-50

The speakers have all published important papers in the last several months on trends in hurricane occurrence and intensity, some of which you may have read about right here on CapitalWeather.com:

• Dr. Kevin Trenberth, Head of the Climate Analysis Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO
  
• Dr. Judith Curry, Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA
  
• Dr. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, Massachusetts
  Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

The questions to be discussed are:

Are hurricanes, or certain categories of hurricanes, changing? Are these changes more likely tied to a globally-averaged climate warming or are they more likely to be manifestations of natural climate variability? Can large storms be unaffected by a globally-averaged climate warming that has resulted, in part, in an altered hydrologic cycle (i.e., more water vapor in the atmosphere)? Is it reasonable to presume that natural cycles and oscillations can go unaffected by a globally-averaged climate warming? Are there limits on a hurricane's intensity and, if so, what are they? Is there any scientific basis for concern over the plausibility of hurricanes in excess of a category 5 hurricane in the foreseeable future, in a climatically-altered world?

The public is cordially invited.

Katrina Post Mortem

Today's WaPo reports that a FEMA aide testified in hearings that FEMA Administrator Mike Brown's assistant was notified at 11am on Aug. 29 that the New Orleans levees had been breached. These warnings were ignored for 16 hours. If you were reading CapitalWeather.com that day, you saw quotes from the Times-Picayune storm blog as early as 10:30 which indicated flooding was occurring.

Lovely Rita, Meteorology Maid

5:15 update: Rita was upgraded between advisories to Category 5, max winds 165 mph; min pressure by recon is 914 mb. The forecast track has been shifted toward the right (in the direction of Galveston/Houston). Hurricane watch is in effect for Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.

The Washington metro area weather is lovely as Rita rampages across the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 80s, although to the south Stafford and Fredericksburg are near or at 90 this afternoon. Dewpoints are in the mid 50s or lower. As Dan said earlier, warm and dry will be the rule here for the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms which developed yesterday were too far to the south and east to help the drought in the immediate area.

Tropical Beat

Hurricane Rita strengthened dramatically overnight to Category 4. The morning advisory estimated maximum winds of 140 mph because the reconnaissance plane was prevented from flying by mechanical problems, but satellite analysis indicated even higher strength. This was updated at 2:15 to 150 mph and a minimum pressure headed for record territory at 920 mb. As with Katrina, a huge eye has developed, and the size of the circulation has expanded as well, easily stretching from the northern Yucatan across half of Cuba to southern Florida. At 11am, the storm was centered 755 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. It was moving westward at 13 mph. The expected track puts the center on the Texas coast early Saturday, probably between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but there is still a large cone of uncertainty.

Tropical Storm Philippe is still around, but it is looking more ragged as it moves north ward to the east of Bermuda.

Broadcast News

The Diane Rehm show on WAMU-FM (88.5) had a discussion this morning with Dr. Judith Curry of Georgia Tech, a co-author of the Science magazine hurricane study we cited last Thursday, and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State, who predicts seasonal tropical storm activity. Also on the panel was Dr. Anthony Busalacchi of the University of Maryland. The main conclusion of Dr. Curry's study is that there has been about a doubling in the number of severe tropical cyclones (Category 4 and 5) since 1970. This is despite the fact that the overall number of storms has not increased. As she explained on the show, the study was careful not to draw any causal connections between global warming and the higher storm intensity. (Some general media reports have not been as precise in their interpretations.) Dr. Gray claims that the study and its conclusions are flawed on several grounds:

1. The period of record is not long enough.
2. The researchers don't have enough experience.
3. It's too hard to distinguish between categories 3 and 4.
4. The agreement between the statistical data and model results is irrelevant.
5. All variability is explained by a multi-decadal oscillation.

Fortunately, the connection between congeniality and quality of science is not very strong, but to this observer, Dr. Curry came across as much more reasonable than Dr. Gray. It didn't quite descend to the level of a classic Saturday Night Live "Jane, you ignorant slut", but Dr. Gray did have a "my way or the highway" view of the data, implying that only he had been doing this long enough to know how to properly do the analysis. He also had what can only be described as a contemptuous attitude toward computer modeling, using what sounded like the technical term "hooey" to describe model results.

In a sad sign of how much science has become politicized, one of the first callers, at about 34 minutes after the hour, questioned the source of funding for the researchers. (In a profile in this month's Discover magazine, Dr. Gray implies that his NOAA funding was cut off by the Clinton administration for political reasons.)

The show is scheduled to be repeated tonight at 9, and it is also available on the show web site.

Dr. Patrick Michaels of UVA has a critique of Dr. Curry's Science article at Tech Central Station.

Google is a new financial supporter of the NOVA science series on PBS, and the search term typed into the screen display in the underwriting message on the show last night was "Meteorology". Go Google!

Added later:
An analysis of Gray's point of view at RealClimate the following year ("Gray and Muddy Thinking about Global Warming") generated a lively debate.

Endless Summer

The summery weather continues this afternoon in the Washington DC metro area. It was 89 for 4 consecutive hourly reports yesterday at National, but somewhere in between the high was 90 for the third time this month. Temperatures are again in the upper 80s this afternoon and dewpoints are in the soggy range, mainly the upper 60s. Winchester, which had a moderate thunderstorm at 3:00, saw the temperature drop to 70. This was part of a line of showers and thunderstorms which formed just west of I-81. The line is moving eastward and should reach the metro area within the next couple of hours if it continues to hold together. Around 4:30, the leading edge of showers had reached central Frederick County, MD and Loudoun County, VA.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm and humid conditions will continue tonight with a 70% chance of showers or thunderstorms through this evening. The air behind the cold front approaching from the west will be slow to work its way into the area, so tomorrow's highs will be in the middle 80s under partly cloudy skies.

Tropical Beat: Ophelia Fades

Tropical Storm Ophelia continues to move north-northeast at 8 mph away from the Outer Banks. It has weakened to 60 mph. The current forecast track takes it close to southeastern New England, with landfall somewhere along the coast of Nova Scotia. Tropical storm warnings are in effect from Watch Hill, RI to Plymouth, MA, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. A tropical storm watch is in effect for southwestern Nova Scotia.

There are two areas in the Atlantic being watched for development: A tropical wave is located about 550 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and there is an area of showers and thunderstorms extending east-northeastward from near the Dominican Republic.

While FEMA Slept

NPR's Morning Edition today posted links to the National Situation Updates sent to management by FEMA professionals as early as the Friday night before Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans on Monday. By Saturday morning, the update emphasized the fact that Katrina had strengthened to Category 3 and was threatening the northern Gulf Coast, but this was apparently not taken seriously. Perhaps they should have used a catchier title, like "Bin Laden determined to strike in US".

Ophelia Onstage

Showers breaking out in the broad easterly flow north of the large circulation of Hurricane Ophelia have brought some relief to a few parched lawns in the Washington DC metro area, mainly to the west and north of the Beltway. Most of the rain activity in the region was over the northern Chesapeake Bay and adjacent Eastern Shore. There was a likely severe thunderstorm in the vicinity of Elkton. Here in west-central Montgomery County, rain was moderate to heavy around 2:30, with a peak rainfall rate of 1.12"/hr at the 4-WINDS network station about a mile away. Total rainfall was a little more than a quarter of an inch. For a series of Weather Channel radar images showing the evolution of this storm from Fairfax County across to Montgomery County, click here, here, and here.

Temperatures in the rain-free areas are well up into the 80s and the dewpoints are in the tropical range of upper 60s to low 70s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Cloudy and humid conditions will continue tonight with lows around 70 and a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and humid with highs in the low 80s and a 30% chance of showers, but a higher chance to the south and east of the immediate area.

Tropical Beat: "Enter Ophelia, Distracted"

Hurricane Ophelia strengthened to 85 mph as of 2pm. It was located 70 miles southwest of Cape Lookout, NC and moving north-northeast at a slow 7 mph. The center of the storm is expected to turn more to the northeast and make landfall near Cape Lookout, then move across the Outer Banks somewhere near Cape Hatteras and out to sea. However, the center is very wide, and hurricane force winds extend as much as 50 miles from the center; tropical force winds extend up to 140 miles. This, together with the slow movement of the storm, means that significant damage, especially from beach erosion and storm surge, can occur a considerable distance north of the center.

As of 2pm, a hurricane warning is in effect from Little River Inlet north to the North Carolina/Virginia border. There is a tropical storm warning and hurricane watch northward from there to Cape Charles Light, VA, including southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay.

The main effects from Ophelia on the DC region are still likely to be south and east of the immediate metro area.

More Katrina Media Notes

Under the headline "Storm Drain", the WaPo TV section reprints today an Associated Press story which says that only 24 million viewers tuned in to the Katrina benefit concert last Friday night, although it was carried on 29 networks. That's "fewer than the number of people who typically tune in to a new episode of 'American Idol' or 'CSI: Crime Scene Investigation.'"

This just in: Also in today's WaPo, featured in the lead column of the Business section front page (although below the fold), is the truly astonishing news that the increase in gasoline prices spawned by the Katrina disaster has greatly diminished the attractiveness of road-hogging, gas-hogging SUV's. Our hearts go out to all of the real estate agents whose image is threatened with impairment in this moment of crisis. Who could have possibly foreseen such an event?

Ophelia Pain

A high pressure area centered near the Washington DC region covers most of the eastern 2/3 of the country. Lawns are feeling the pain of the 15th consecutive day without measurable rain in the area. Temperatures at mid afternoon are in the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the pleasant mid to upper 50s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight will be clear with lows around 63 in the city to near 60 or the upper 50s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be similar to today, but with temperatures a few degrees warmer, highs near 90, and a little more humid.

Tropical Beat

After making a small clockwise loop, Ophelia was downgraded to a tropical storm this morning with max winds of 70 mph. It is lumbering off to the northwest at 3 mph as of 5pm. Water vapor images show that dry air from the high over us is not only suppressing convection to the north, but it is even working its way around the southern portion of the storm as well. The track is still very uncertain, but the most likely scenario is for the center to graze the Outer Banks and then proceed back out to sea. The "pear" of uncertainty for the 1-3 day track includes southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore. The "Tropical Storm Force Experimental Probabilities" put DC just on the outer edge of the 20-30% probability of tropical storm winds for the 5 days from this morning through 8am Saturday.

The Katrina Channel

• Both Time and Newsweek have extensive analyses of Katrina's aftermath this week.
• The U.K. newspaper the Independent has an article discussing the environmental impacts based on an interview with Hugh Kaufman, "an expert on toxic waste and responses to environmental disasters at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)".
  
• Reuters has just reported at 3:30 that FEMA chief Brown has resigned.

Planet Hollywood

Among the movies scheduled to be released this fall (October 28) is "The Weather Man", starring Nicolas Cage as a TV weatherman. Here is the plot summary from the Internet Movie Database:

"Dave Spritz is a local weatherman in his home city of Chicago, who lives with his wife and kids. Despite being both loathed and loved by the local masses, Dave is a guy who doesn't seem to have it all together and he feels it. But an attractive job offer has one unlikely thing: to relocate to New York City. Despite all the advice his seemingly has it together father and a neurotic wife, Dave has to make a big decision that not only will affect his life but his family's as well."

Michael Caine plays Cage's father. The official web site contains the usual assortment of trailers and clips, as well as downloads of wallpapers and screen savers; AIM icons are "coming soon." Cage fan sites CageFactor and Cage by Page contain additional news items.

Real Boston TV weatherman Todd Gross, who owns domain weatherman.com, has this to say after viewing the trailer:

In the upcoming movie The Weatherman starring Nick Cage, a weatherman that appears to be a non-meteorologist works two hours a day and seems to more or less "wing it' from what I have seen of the trailers. In real life, hundreds of hard-working meteorologists are struggling with pages and pages of data to give you the BEST possible forecast and beat out the competition.

The Chicagoist reports that the film will close the Chicago International Film Festival on October 20.

Not Quite Perfect

Some mainly high clouds associated with a weak cold front passing slowly through the Washington metro area have dimmed the bright sunshine this afternoon, but temperatures are well into the mid 80s. Humidity has increased from recent days, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s. Radar is nearly clear, although a very small shower appeared early in the afternoon just north of the Mason-Dixon line and west of Hancock, MD. It has now expanded across Maryland into the panhandle of West Virginia.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lows will be in the mid 60s under partly cloudy skies tonight. There is a remote chance of an isolated shower. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with highs in the mid 80s.

Tropical Beat: How now, Ophelia!

As Jason noted earlier, Ophelia was a tropical storm with 65 mph maximum winds, but it has been upgraded to a hurricane with 75 mph winds as of 5pm. It is moving slowly northeast for now, so tropical storm warnings and watches have been canceled. Interests from northern Florida to the Carolinas need to be alert, however, since the storm still has the potential to regain strength and loop back to the coast. For the first time with this storm, the DC area is now in the "egg of uncertainty" for the track.

Maria still has tropical characteristics but is no longer a hurricane. It is moving northeast in the far northern Atlantic with maximum winds of 60 mph and should be near Iceland as an extratropical storm by Tuesday.

Nate was also downgraded to a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph. It is moving east-northeast at a brisk 24 mph on a track which should eventually take it west of the Azores.

Elsewhere, no other tropical storm formation is expected through Saturday.

Shelter From the Storm

Most broadcast and cable networks will carry a Katrina benefit telethon "Shelter From the Storm" from 8 to 9 tonight. Donations will be collected on behalf of the Red Cross and Salvation Army.

Don't forget to help the unsung heroes of the National Weather Service through the NWSEO Disaster Assistance Fund.

CNN reports that Katrina charity scams have mushroomed, especially on the web.

Threepeat

Bright sun through a clear sky has pushed temperatures this afternoon in the Washington DC metro area a degree of 2 higher than yesterday; the official reading at 4pm was 84. Dewpoints have remained dry, even down to the low 40s in some places. As might be expected, the radar is clear for several hundred miles.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lows tonight under clear skies will be in the low 60s in the city, 60 or a bit below in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny with a high around 84 and low humidity.

Tropical Beat Goes On

Although 3 simultaneous hurricanes have been observed before, they are quite rare.

Tropical Storm Ophelia became a hurricane at 5pm. It continues to lurk off the Florida coast, remaining nearly stationary. The circulation has become more organized, and maximum winds of 65 mph as of 2pm were raised to 75 mph in the latest advisory. With extremely weak steering currents, the future track is highly uncertain, but the official forecast brings it gradually northeast and then stalls it out again going into early next week. The models have some wide disagreements. It looks like we will be hearing about this one for quite some time.

Maria is still hanging on as a hurricane with 75 mph winds and an "eye-like feature" as it moves further northeast away from land. It is now north of latitude 39 N, over 1000 miles east of Bermuda.

Brother Nate is also still a hurricane; its 85 mph winds passed to the south of Bermuda. It continues northeastward from a position 170 miles east of Bermuda on a track which should put it southwest of Ireland as a depression in 5 days.

Tales From the Cajun Weather Grill

Katrina's rampage through Momma Nature's Cajun Weather Grill had a big impact on the pantry. Yesterday's WaPo Food section reports "Grocers Cautiously Monitoring Supplies". Supplies of coffee, bananas, chicken, and seafood are all affected. Mississippi produces 10% of the country's chicken, and 10 out of 14 processing plants were without power or water. Chiquita Brands imports 25% of its bananas through Gulfport. These are being rerouted through Texas and Florida.

The Louisiana oyster supply, which accounts for about 40% of the national total, was essentially cut off, with the storm wiping out everything from oyster beds through boats and processing plants. The shrimp industry was also heavily impacted, but 88% of U.S. shrimp consumption is imported.

The Port of New Orleans, which is the largest port in the U.S. by tonnage, reopened on Tuesday for relief shipments. It is expected to reopen in 2 weeks for commercial traffic. Vessels up to a 35-foot draft are being allowed on the Mississippi, but the river normally handles drafts up to 45 feet. The port closure has a big effect on the coffee market; about 50% of the Folger's brand is processed in New Orleans. Starbucks addicts will be relieved to know that the company has processing plants in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Washington state. They announced that they "did not hold any coffee in New Orleans and our coffee supply is not affected by the hurricane." Another vital commodity which normally flows through New Orleans is Mexican beer.

Loss of use of the port has a big effect on food exports as well. About 60% of grain exports are transported down the Mississippi.