Thursday, June 7, 2007

Got A Ticket to Rise: Heat Advisory Friday

** Heat Advisory in Effect From 2 PM to 8 PM Friday **


Sunny, warmer, more humid. Temperatures have warmed considerably this afternoon in the Washington metro area, but the humidity has increased more; temperatures are about 10° higher than yesterday (mid 80s), but dewpoints are 15° higher (near 60°).

Temperatures and humidities both have a ticket to continue rising through tomorrow as a very strong low pressure area for the season (978 mb this morning) in the upper Midwest helps pump heat and Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. The heat wave should be short-lived however, with more comfortable conditions returning for the weekend.

Surface weather map at 2pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Becoming hot, humid; late-day storms possible tomorrow. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with warm temperatures and increasing humidity; lows will be from near 70° downtown to the low and mid 60s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny, hot, and humid with highs in the mid 90s. Heat index values will be near 100. Severe thunderstorms are a possibility from late afternoon into the overnight hours.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu Gone-o

Unusually strong Tropical Cyclone Gonu continued to display an impressive appearance as it weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Iran in the early morning hours today. The storm was reported to have killed 28 people and caused significant damage in Oman.

Climate Corner

Today's WaPo carried a page A1 article, "Icy Island Warms to Climate Change", describing the effects of climate change on the 56,000 inhabitants of Greenland.

Meanwhile, at the G8 conference, the U.S. rope-a-dope climate strategy continued, as the final declaration stated, "In setting a global goal for emissions reductions in the process we have agreed today involving all major emitters, we will consider seriously the decisions made by the European Union, Canada and Japan . . ." Environmentalists were "were unimpressed."

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

D-Day: Delightful, Delicious, Delectabale


Sunny, warm, low humidity. It's an exceptionally fine June afternoon here in the national capital region. Following a cold frontal passage last night the temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s throughout the area, and dewpoints are in the very comfortable 40s. Some scattered showers were observed overnight, but amounts were generally under 0.10"; National recorded 0.01" and Dulles had nothing. A warmup tomorrow will lead to hotter and stickier conditions for Friday.

Temperature chart at 3pm today from Unisys shows a wide range of temperatures along the east coast and the 90s poised to return for Friday

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, becoming warmer and more humid. Lows tonight under clear skies will be in the upper 50s to near 60° in urban areas and the low 50s to possibly even some upper 40s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny, warmer and becoming more humid with highs 84-87°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu

Tropical Cyclone Gonu headed more northerly this morning with the center staying off the coast of Oman, but tens of thousands of people were evacuated, the country's oil exports were suspended, and a major port was closed. Oil markets this morning seemed to be more concerned with the weekly inventory figures, but the possibility of Persian Gulf export disruption remains as the weakening storm continues on a track toward the Straits of Hormuz.

Climate Corner

In conjunction with the G8 Summit currently being held in Germany, the UK Met Office has published a projection produced by the Hadley Centre for Climate Change showing the expected high temperature for the year 2057 in each of the G8 capitals. The highest predicted reading of 42.1°C is right here in Spin City, a 5°C increase from the current average yearly high. (For the Fahrenheit freaks, that's a not-so-kewl 107.8°).

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

Oh Man, You Gonu Like This Weather!


Variable clouds, warm, less humid. A first shot of drier air arrived this morning on westerly breezes, and an even cooler and drier air mass will arrive overnight to provide a picture-perfect June day tomorrow. Temperatures this afternoon were again in the low 80s, but the humidity was considerably more comfortable with dewpoints about 10° lower, in the low and mid 50s. Showers on radar were very widely scattered and all were west of the mountains.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, comfortable. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will be from near 60° downtown to the low and mid 50s in 'burbville. There is a slight chance of widely scattered showers late tonight through early morning. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and dry with highs in the upper 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics: Gonu Set a Record

Tropical Cyclone Gonu continues to set records as the strongest storm ever observed in modern times in the western Arabian Sea. It was approaching the eastern tip of Oman today on its way toward a predicted landfall on the coast of eastern Iran, thus sparing Oman from a direct hit. Some weakening has occurred from infiltration of desert air on the western side of the storm and from somwhat cooler water temperatures. The morning advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center indicated peak winds of 105 kt (about 120 mph). See yesterday's PM Update for more links on this very unusual situation.


Yesterday's NYTi media business section contained an article, "Everybody Talks About the Weather; All of a Sudden, It's Controversial" discussing The Weather Channel's coverage of global warming in its Forecast Earth series. In honor of Hurricane Week, this past weekend's episode dealt with the issue of hurricanes and global warming. The show will be repeated several times this Saturday.

Monday, June 4, 2007

Warm and Muggy; Localized Showers and Storms


Warm, humid, some storms. Shortly after 4pm, a small area of showers and thunderstorms extended from the far western corner of Montgomery County southwestward across the Potomac through eastern Loudoun County. This area was moving eastward and intensifying as it reached the northwestern part of the Beltway around 5:00. A strong thunderstorm in the Mt. Vernon area prompted a Special Marine Warning for the tidal Potomac and northern Chesapeake Bay until 6:30.

Otherwise, conditions have generally been variably cloudy, warm, and muggy in the Washington metro area, following yesterday's rain, shown on the map to the right. Temperatures were generally in the low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.

Precipitation analysis from NWS for yesterday and yesterday night's rainfall shows widespread areas over 0.5" (green) in the metro area, but heavier amounts to the southwest and east.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Lingering storms, warm, decreasing humidity. Some showers and thunderstorms may linger into the evening, especially along I-95 between Washington and Baltimore; otherwise, skies will be variably cloudy with lows 63-68°. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 80s and decreasing humidity in the afternoon.

After a midweek cooldown, warm and humid conditions will return by the end of the week. For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The Atlantic and eastern Pacific are quiet today, but on the other side of the world a rare "super cyclonic" storm, Gonu, (T6.5, equivalent to Category 5) in the Arabian Sea is heading westward toward Oman, where a state of emergency has been declared. Sea conditions associated with the cyclone are forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department to be phenomenal. See pharmolo's Tropical Cyclones blog for history on this storm.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.