Thursday, May 20, 2010

2010 Hurricane Season Outlook Delayed
Stupid Pet Tricks Mock Hansen

The Florida Sun-Sentinel Storm Center blog reports that NOAA's 2010 hurricane season outlook, scheduled to be released today, has been delayed until next week. No reason was given. Last year's outlook was announced on May 21. Hurricane season begins officially on June 1.

Hurricane Preparedness Week begins on Sunday, May 23, with a focus on the history of notable storms. Other topics include the triple threats of storm surge, high winds, and inland flooding; the forecast process; preparedness; and taking action.

The Central Pacific hurricane season outlook, released yesterday, calls for a below-average tropical cyclone threat to Hawaii. It predicts a "70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season."

Meanwhile, a ClimateWire article, reposted by the New York Times, considers the effects of a hurricane on the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico:
Researchers Ponder a Hurricane Hitting the Oil-Slicked Gulf of Mexico
NOAA talking points list a number of open questions, such as whether the oil plume could affect storm formation by suppressing evaporation of Gulf water and how a hurricane could change the size and location of the oil slick. There's little information about what would happen if a hurricane hit the spill, experts said.

Still, several scientists are worried that a hurricane could drive oil inland, soiling beaches and wetlands and pushing polluted water up river estuaries.
In the Stupid Pet Tricks department, NBC Miami reports that a right-wing political lobbying organization, The National Center for Public Policy Research, is using the opportunity to mock climate scientist James Hansen (and conflate weather with climate) by having a chimpanzee roll dice to predict the number of hurricanes for the season:
No Monkey Business: Primate Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

Monday, May 17, 2010

Global Temperature Update: Warmest April on Record

The preliminary April 2010 global temperature analysis, released today by NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), shows that the past month was the warmest April since records began in 1880. (The previous record was in the strong El Niño year of 1998.) This was also the 34th consecutive year that April has been warmer than the 20th century average. The average temperature of 14.5°C (58.1°F) was 0.76°C (1.37°F) above the 20th century average of 13.7°C (56.7°F).

Ocean surface temperatures were the warmest on record for April at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average. The warmth was most extreme over the equatorial regions of the oceans, especially the Atlantic. Cooler than average temperatures occurred in the higher latitudes of the southern oceans and in portions of the northern Pacific. Equatorial Pacific temperatures remained above average, but El Niño conditions continued weakening, and neutral conditions are expected by June, continuing into the summer.

Land surface temperatures were the third warmest for April, 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average. The highest departures from average were in southern Asia, northern Africa, the north central and northeastern U.S., Canada, Europe, and parts of northern Russia. Cooler than average temperatures were mainly limited to Argentina, Mongolia, eastern and southern Russia, and most of China.

Northern Hemisphere temperatures overall were the warmest on record, but land temperatures alone were the third warmest. Southern Hemisphere temperatures were the second warmest on record both for the hemisphere as a whole and for the oceans alone. Southern Hemisphere land temperatures were the fourth warmest.

Year-to-date temperatures also set a record for January-April, 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average.

Images (click to enlarge): Global average temperature departures from average for April 2010 and April history since 1880 from NCDC

Weathercaster Ryan's Move Officially Announced
Martucci to Freelance at Channel 4

For a 2012 update, see Kim Martucci Pregnant (And Back to Our Regular Programming

PM Update: Doug Hill delivers meteorologist Bob Ryan to Channel 7 (WJLA) in the station's Storm Chaser and welcomes him to his new broadcast home:

The WJLA press release announcing the move:
ABC7 Welcomes Meteorologist Bob Ryan

Ryan will also be heard on WTOP radio:
Bob Ryan joins ABC7's weather team

From dcist:
Bob Ryan to Debut on WJLA Tonight

Original post:
From the dcrtv blog:
DCRTV hears that Channel 7/WJLA officially announced on the 11 PM Sunday newscast that Bob Ryan will be working there. As widely rumored. They had a pic of Bob and Doug Hill together. Ryan, who left Channel 4/WRC in February, will be doing 7's 11 PM newscast's weathercast, teaming with Hill during weather emergencies, and contributing to station owner's new TBD local news website. The DC Post has more. More local TV weather news (not in the Post): DCRTV hears that Kim Martucci (right), who left Channel 9/WUSA at the end of December when her contract was not renewed, announced on her Facebook page that she will be doing some freelance weather work at Channel 4/WRC soon. "They have a great team and I am excited to be working with some incredibly talented people who have been here a long time. See you on the air very soon," she writes. Just last week, DCRTV reported that Martucci announced that she is pregnant and due in October.....
See Mediarology for other posts on this topic.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.