Washington, DC Monthly/Annual/Decade Precipitation Update Damp December, Ditto Decade (Wettest in Century)

See here for more Washington, DC weather records.

New Year's Update: An additional 0.12" on New Year's Eve brings the final December total to 5.85", more than 90% above average. It's the wettest December in over a quarter century, since the 5.91" in 1983. As noted earlier, it's also the 7th wettest overall.

The final total for 2009 is 45.96", putting the annual average for the decade at 42.58". Six of the years in the decade have been at least 15% above or below the long-term annual average. That equals the maximum number of such extremes also observed in the 1950s and 1980s.

New charts added: Annual precipitation amounts and departures, decadal annual averages.

Tune in next week for temperature analysis.

Original post:
With 0.31" of wintry mix and rain showers so far this New Year's Eve day, the Washington, DC December precipitation total is now almost 90% above average. This is a little ahead of the 87% excess of June, but well short of the 111% in May.

December is the third consecutive month of much above average precipitation and the sixth of the year, with 5 out of the 6 being over 50% above. November, at 46% above, just missed the 50% level. Two of the dry months, February and July, were more than 50% below average, so a total of 7 months this year had more than a 50% deviation. This December is now the 7th wettest in Washington history.

The annual total of 45.84" is over 6" more than the long-term average of 39.35", but still lower than the 46.49" in 2008. Seven years this decade and 6 out of the last 7 years have been above average.

The annual average of 42.57" for the decade 2000-2009 is the wettest in a century and the third wettest overall, behind 43.40" in 1900-1909 and 46.80" in 1880-1889. Actually, the 1870s were slightly wetter with an average of 42.79", but they include only 9 years, since official records began in 1871.

Tune back in over the New Year's weekend for final monthly and annual totals, plus more charts.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Washington DC 2009 monthly precipitation amounts and percentages above or below average
- 2000-2009 annual precipitation amounts and percentages above or below average
- 1871-2009 decadal average annual precipitation amounts (1870s include only 9 years)
All charts by CapitalClimate from National Weather Service data

New Orleans Drowns All-Time Monthly Precipitation Record

December 25 Update: The New Orleans daily climate report confirms the earlier rainfall estimates.

11 PM CST Update: Today's unofficial total: 0.50", monthly total: 25.43".

Original post:
As noted last week, New Orleans doubled its previous December precipitation record in the first two weeks of the month and was closing in on the all-time monthly record. With 0.36" of rain so far this afternoon in heavy thunderstorms, the monthly total is now 25.29", exceeding the previous record of 25.11" set in October 1937. Light rain continues to fall as more showers move through the area.

Images (click to enlarge): New Orleans monthly precipitation records, CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data; 24 hour precipitation ending 6 am CST December 25 from National Weather Service

Emanuel, Prinn, Lindzen Debate CRU-Hack at MIT

Meteorology (EAPS in MIT-speak) professors Kerry Emanuel, Ronald Prinn, and Richard Lindzen, discussed the hacked emails (widely pimped as "ClimateGate") from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia with two political scientists on December 10.

Emanuel:

What we have here are thousands of emails collectively showing scientists hard at work, trying to figure out the meaning of evidence that confronts them. Among a few messages, there are a few lines showing the human failings of a few scientists…

Lindzen:

. . .things that are unethical and in many cases illegal . . . willingness to destroy data rather than release it . . . bad things going on . . . elite hysteria . . . devastating for popular support for science . . . scandals, cheating and arguments . . . bizarre changes [to the data] . . . The public is being thrown catastrophes.

Prinn:

My view of the risk is that we have no other planet to retreat to if we are wrong.

Video below (running time 1:58:31):

Stores Seen Surviving Super Saturday Storm

Dec. 22 Update: CNBC finds today that nationwide retail sales have increased, despite the weather:


Original post:
After pounding the Washington/Baltimore area with record-setting snowfall, the Super Saturday storm left massive amounts of snow on parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Long Island before departing out to sea. Nevertheless, a report from Bloomberg today indicates that last-minute shopping in the remaining days before Christmas may make up for lost sales over the weekend. Despite the reputation of "Black Friday", the maximum day for retail sales is usually "Super Saturday" on the weekend before Christmas. Overall, the 10 days before the holiday make up 40% of sales for the months of November and December, according to Bloomberg.

The NYT, on the other hand, was more cautious, pointing out that the region affected by the storm accounts for about 25% of a typical national retailer's total sales:
Storm on Big Weekend Raises Worries for Stores

The FT reported:
US retailers hope for last-minute gift buying

Some more records set by the storm:

On Long Island, the 26.3" of snow at the National Weather Service office in Upton set a new single storm record, breaking the old record of 23.0" in the blizzard of 1978.

Providence, RI set a new all-time December daily snowfall record with 14.3".

The storm total of 23.2" at Philadelphia is the second highest all-time storm total. The record is 30.7" in the blizzard of January 1996.

Many locations set individual daily records for December 19 or 20.

Washington DC Snow Breaks December Record

For full season data, see: Winter 2009-2010 Snowfall Review

For other related posts, including the latest record report, see:

• All-Time Record Snowfalls
• Record Snow
• Washington DC Weather Records
• Winter Weather

Sunday Evening Update: Here are a couple of other statistics from the National Weather Service:

THE 15.0 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED YESTERDAY WAS THE THIRD
HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL ON ANY CALENDAR DAY AT WASHINGTON DC SINCE
SNOWFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1884.

THE 20.5 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED YESTERDAY WILL GO DOWN AS THE FIFTH
HIGHEST DAILY SNOWFALL ON ANY CALENDAR DAY AT BALTIMORE SINCE
SNOWFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1893. 

Sunday PM Update: Added monthly record chart, updated unofficial measurements.

Sunday AM Update: Final official daily and monthly (to date) snowfall amounts:

Washington National 15.0"/16.6"
Washington Dulles   16.0"/21.0"
Baltimore (BWI)     20.5"/22.2"  

New records (previous in parentheses):

• National: All-time December daily (11.5", 12-17-1932) and monthly snowfall (16.2", 1962)
  
• Dulles: All-time December daily record (10.6", 12-12-1982) and second highest December snowfall (24.2", 1966)
  
• Baltimore: All-time December daily (11.5", 12-17-1932) and monthly snowfall (20.4", 1966)

For Dulles and Baltimore, these are only the second double-digit daily amounts in December. For Washington, it's the fourth.

11 pm Update: As of 9 pm, Washington National reported 16.3" of snowfall from this storm. This brings the December total to 16.5", which is a new all-time December record, exceeding the 1962 amount of 16.2". This is also the 7th biggest snowstorm in Washington history. The 6 bigger ones are:

January 27-28, 1922 .... 28 inches
February 11-13, 1899 ... 20.5 inches
February 18-19, 1979 ... 18.7 inches
January 6-8, 1996 ...... 17.1 inches
February 15-18, 2003 ... 16.7 inches
February 11-12, 1983 ... 16.6 inches 

9 pm Update: Yet another inch at BWI, now at 18". Light snow continues at all 3 locations.

8 pm Update: BWI reports another inch, 17" on the ground. No change at National or Dulles.

Given the inconsistency with the snow amount and the over 1" of liquid at Dulles, the National precipitation amount cited earlier (0.33") is most likely incomplete, possibly from freezing of the instrument or blowing of the snow away from the instrument.

7 pm Update: Dulles reports another inch, 17" on the ground. National is at 15", BWI no change.

6:30 pm Update: The National Weather Service preliminary climate reports have been updated. Here are the daily snowfall/storm total/monthly total amounts for the region as of 4 pm:

Washington National 14.0/15.4/15.6
Washington Dulles   15.0/15.0/18.0
Baltimore (BWI)     11.0/11.0/12.1 

The 1.11" of liquid precipitation at Dulles is a record for the date.

6 pm Update: Baltimore (BWI) reports 16" on the ground in the latest hour. This would imply a total snowfall in the top 10 for Baltimore records dating back to 1891 and the highest in December. The 8th place snowstorm in the all-time record list is March 15-18, 1892 with 16.0".

Dulles is at 16", National no change.

5:30 pm Update: Updated unofficial reports.

5 pm Update: Dulles Airport now has an official report of 15" of snow on the ground; no increase at National. This puts Dulles close to the second highest December monthly total of 15.9" in 1969. The December record is 24.2" in 1966.

4:40 pm Update: The preliminary climate report for today has been issued with the snowfall amount listed as "MM" (missing), so the official record will be delayed. Interestingly, the precipitation amount is given as 0.33", which would have been only 3.3" at a typical snow/liquid ratio of 10:1.

4 pm Update: National adds another inch but depth on ground is still 14"; Dulles also at 14" on the ground with a cumulative amount of 16". Cumulative snowfall is probably now within the top 10 all-time biggest storms in Washington. Updated unofficial reports as of 3:23.

3 pm Update: Added snow depth chart and updated total to 14".

2 pm Update: National has added 1" to reach 13" on the ground, BWI 2" to 10". Considering that National had 1" on the ground at midnight, that's at least 12" of new snow today, which breaks the daily record, and the total amount breaks the December single-storm record. Here's the raw report showing SNINCR (snow increase) to 13":

KDCA 191852Z 35014KT 1/4SM R01/1200V1400FT +SN VV003 M03/M06 A2965
RMK AO2 SLP039 DRSN ALQDS SNINCR 1/13 P0005 T10331056 $ 

Original post:
As of 1 pm, Washington National is reporting 1/8 mile visibility in heavy snow and an increase of 2" in the past hour with 12" on the ground. Unofficially, this is a new December daily record, exceeding the previous record of 11.5" set in 1932. Other regional amounts include:

Washington Dulles 12"
Andrews AFB       11"
Baltimore (BWI)    9"
Patuxent River MD  5"
Roanoke           15"
Richmond           7"  

Unofficial reports include:

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                
                SNOWFALL           OF
                /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

..DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

THE MALL              16.0   615 PM 12/19                        

MARYLAND

..ALLEGANY COUNTY

LONACONING            17.4   412 AM 12/20                        
NORTH BRANCH 1 N      17.0  1015 PM 12/19                        
CUMBERLAND 1 SSE      14.5   702 PM 12/19                        
FROSTBURG             14.0   700 PM 12/19                        

..ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY

GLEN BURNIE           22.5   915 PM 12/19                        
CROFTON               21.0  1030 PM 12/19                        
BALT-WASH INTL ARPT   21.0  1200 AM 12/20   KBWI                     
ANNAPOLIS             20.8   700 PM 12/19                        
OWINGS 1 NNE          20.0   845 PM 12/19                        
GREEN HAVEN 1 NE      19.9   424 AM 12/20                        
GAMBRILLS 1 NW        18.0   733 PM 12/19                        
MILLERSVILLE          18.0   815 PM 12/19                        
PAROLE 1 NNW          17.0   630 PM 12/19                        
RIVA 2 NW             15.0   933 PM 12/19                        

..BALTIMORE COUNTY

CATONSVILLE           20.5   847 PM 12/19                        
GUNPOWDER 1 WSW       20.5   933 PM 12/19                        
GARRISON 1 SE         20.4  1025 PM 12/19                        
ESSEX                 20.0  1020 PM 12/19                        
PARKTON               20.0   655 PM 12/19                        
DUNDALK 1 SSW         19.5   700 PM 12/19                        
MONKTON               19.0   915 PM 12/19                        
REISTERSTOWN          19.0   945 PM 12/19                        
HAMPTON 1 W           18.0   618 PM 12/19                        
HUNT VALLEY           17.8  1005 PM 12/19                        
JACKSONVILLE          17.0   900 PM 12/19                        
RANDALLSTOWN 1 NW     16.5   715 PM 12/19                        
PARKVILLE 1 ENE       12.0   830 PM 12/19                        

..BALTIMORE CITY COUNTY

CARROLL 2 W           17.0  1115 PM 12/19                        

..CALVERT COUNTY

DARES BEACH 3 NW      19.0   800 PM 12/19                        
HUNTINGTOWN           18.8  1050 PM 12/19                        

..CARROLL COUNTY

LINEBORO 3 WSW        20.0   933 PM 12/19                        
MILLERS               19.0  1100 PM 12/19                        
WESTMINSTER 1 N       18.8   729 PM 12/19                        
LINEBORO 2 E          18.5   800 PM 12/19                        

..CHARLES COUNTY

BRYANS ROAD 2 ESE     21.2  1000 PM 12/19                        
DENTSVILLE 1 SW       13.5  1050 PM 12/19                        
WALDORF 4 SE          13.5   600 PM 12/19                        

..FREDERICK COUNTY

LIBERTYTOWN 2 N       22.5   931 PM 12/19                        
FREDERICK 1 ESE       22.0  1100 PM 12/19                        
NEW MARKET 2 NW       22.0   900 PM 12/19                        
MIDDLETOWN            21.0   930 PM 12/19                        
JEFFERSON 2 NE        20.2   931 PM 12/19                                                 
POINT OF ROCKS        19.0   930 PM 12/19                        
WALKERSVILLE          19.0   743 PM 12/19                        

..HARFORD COUNTY

EDGEWOOD              19.0   800 PM 12/19                        
FALLSTON 1 N          18.0   931 PM 12/19                        
BEL AIR 1 NE          16.5   840 PM 12/19                        

..HOWARD COUNTY

COLUMBIA              23.0   945 PM 12/19                        
SIMPSONVILLE 1 SSE    22.9  1200 AM 12/20                        
COLUMBIA 2 N          22.9   950 PM 12/19                        
ELKRIDGE 2 W          21.0   930 PM 12/19                        
GLENELG 1 ENE         19.5  1050 PM 12/19                        
SAVAGE 1 WSW          19.0  1128 PM 12/19                        
HANOVER               19.0   945 PM 12/19                        
SAVAGE 1 N            17.0   900 PM 12/19                        
ELLICOTT CITY 1 ESE   16.8   900 PM 12/19                        

..MONTGOMERY COUNTY

BETHESDA              24.0   500 AM 12/20                        
OLNEY                 23.3  1030 PM 12/19                        
DERWOOD               23.0   900 PM 12/19                        
GLEN ECHO             22.8   930 PM 12/19                        
OLNEY 1 S             22.5   800 PM 12/19                        
GERMANTOWN            22.0   650 PM 12/19                        
GAITHERSBURG 1 NW     22.0   632 PM 12/19                        
NORBECK               21.3  1200 AM 12/20                        
ROCKVILLE 2 NW        21.0   932 PM 12/19                        
NORBECK 1 SE          21.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
COLESVILLE            21.0   900 PM 12/19                        
GLENMONT              21.0   737 PM 12/19                        
POTOMAC 3 ENE         20.6  1100 PM 12/19                        
DAMASCUS              20.3   918 PM 12/19                        
BETHESDA 2 NNW        20.0   743 PM 12/19                        
FAIRLAND 1 ESE        20.0   815 PM 12/19                        
ROCKVILLE 1 SSW       20.0   800 PM 12/19                        
NORTH POTOMAC 1 E     19.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
POOLESVILLE           19.0  1230 AM 12/20                        
DARNESTOWN 1 SW       19.0   815 PM 12/19                        
SILVER SPRING 1 ESE   18.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
GERMANTOWN 3 E        16.5   700 PM 12/19                        

..PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY

LAUREL                19.1  1000 PM 12/19                        
BOWIE 2 NNW           19.0   921 PM 12/19                        
BOWIE                 18.8   802 PM 12/19                                            
HYATTSVILLE           18.0   812 PM 12/19                        
GLENN DALE 3 ENE      18.0  1050 PM 12/19                        
FOREST HEIGHTS 1 SSE  17.0   720 PM 12/19                        
BELTSVILLE 1 SSW      15.0  1110 PM 12/19                        
ADELPHI 1 ENE         13.8  1000 PM 12/19                        

..ST. MARYS COUNTY

HOLLYWOOD 1 NNE       15.8   300 AM 12/20                        
HOLLYWOOD             14.5   950 PM 12/19                        

..WASHINGTON COUNTY

SMITHSBURG            21.0   742 PM 12/19                        
HANCOCK               16.0   630 PM 12/19                        

VIRGINIA

..ALBEMARLE COUNTY

EARLYSVILLE 3 NW      23.0  1045 PM 12/19                        
EARLYSVILLE           23.0  1010 PM 12/19                        
CROZET                22.0   600 PM 12/19                        
MONTICELLO 1 NW       19.0  1000 PM 12/19                        

..ARLINGTON COUNTY

BALLSTON 1 SW         20.5   100 AM 12/20                        
ARLINGTON             20.5   800 PM 12/19                        
BAILEYS CROSSROADS 1  19.3   945 PM 12/19                        
FALLS CHURCH 1 ENE    19.2  1100 PM 12/19                        
REAGAN NATIONAL AIRP  16.4  1200 AM 12/20   KDCA                    

..AUGUSTA COUNTY

STUARTS DRAFT         28.8   600 PM 12/19                        
FISHERSVILLE          26.0   600 PM 12/19                        

..CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

BARCROFT 2 ESE        20.0  1244 AM 12/20                        
ALEXANDRIA            19.0   741 PM 12/19                        
ALEXANDRIA 1 SE       15.0   614 PM 12/19                        

..CITY OF CHARLOTTESVILLE

CHARLOTTESVILLE       21.0   600 PM 12/19                        

..CITY OF WAYNESBORO

WAYNESBORO            28.0   600 PM 12/19                        

..CLARKE COUNTY

BERRYVILLE 1 NW       22.0   857 PM 12/19                        
BERRYVILLE            22.0   720 PM 12/19                        
BERRYVILLE 2 NE       21.0   700 PM 12/19                        

..FAIRFAX COUNTY

CENTREVILLE 1 SE      23.0   820 PM 12/19                        
CHANTILLY 1 N         22.0  1230 AM 12/20                        
GREAT FALLS 2 NW      21.8  1120 PM 12/19                                           
HERNDON 1 NNE         21.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
BURKE 1 NNW           21.0  1200 AM 12/20                        
LORTON                20.8  1000 PM 12/19                        
VIENNA                20.5   700 PM 12/19                        
CHANTILLY 3 SE        20.0   845 PM 12/19                        
RESTON                20.0   845 PM 12/19                                                
FAIRFAX STATION 1 NN  19.2  1100 PM 12/19                        
LINCOLNIA 1 W         19.2   940 PM 12/19                        
FRANCONIA 1 N         18.0  1227 AM 12/20                        
RAVENSWORTH           17.5   830 PM 12/19                        

..FAUQUIER COUNTY

OPAL                  21.8  1035 PM 12/19                        
MARSHALL              21.0  1107 PM 12/19                        
WARRENTON 4 SE        20.5   900 PM 12/19                        
BEALETON 1 ESE        18.0   900 PM 12/19                        

..FREDERICK COUNTY

WHITACRE 1 ESE        19.0   600 PM 12/19                        
STEPHENS CITY 2 E     18.5   945 PM 12/19                        
WINCHESTER            18.0   930 PM 12/19                        
WINCHESTER 5 NE       17.8   800 PM 12/19                        

..GREENE COUNTY

RUCKERSVILLE 1 W      19.5   815 PM 12/19                        
MCMULLEN              16.5   702 PM 12/19                        

..LOUDOUN COUNTY

LUCKETTS              22.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
BLUEMONT              21.0   745 PM 12/19                        
DULLES INTL 3 NW      19.3  1200 AM 12/20   NWS OFFICE                    
ASHBURN               19.0   710 PM 12/19                        
LOVETTSVILLE          19.0   611 PM 12/19                        
ARCOLA 1 SSW          18.5   810 PM 12/19                        
DULLES INTERNATIONAL  18.0  1200 AM 12/20   KIAD                     

..NELSON COUNTY

WINTERGREEN           30.0   600 PM 12/19                        

..PAGE COUNTY

LURAY 1 SW            17.0  1130 PM 12/19                        

..PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY

WOOLSEY 3 NNW         19.3   932 PM 12/19                        
MANASSAS              18.0  1200 AM 12/20                        

..ROCKINGHAM COUNTY

GROTTOES              22.0  1100 PM 12/19                        
MASSANUTTEN 1 SE      20.5   607 PM 12/19                        

..SHENANDOAH COUNTY

TOMS BROOK 3 SSE      17.5   900 PM 12/19                        

..SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY

BELMONT 4 SE          19.0   649 PM 12/19                        
CHANCELLORSVILLE 4 S  18.5   721 PM 12/19                        

..STAFFORD COUNTY

FALMOUTH              14.0  1000 PM 12/19                        

..WARREN COUNTY

LINDEN 2 N            26.8   800 PM 12/19                        
FRONT ROYAL 1 ENE     21.0   748 PM 12/19                        

WEST VIRGINIA

..BERKELEY COUNTY

VANVILLE 1 SSW        21.0   951 PM 12/19                        
BUNKER HILL 1 WNW     20.0  1000 PM 12/19                        
MARTINSBURG           20.0   800 PM 12/19                        
GERRARDSTOWN          19.5   622 PM 12/19                        
FALLING WATERS 2 N    19.5   613 PM 12/19                        
FALLING WATERS 1 NNW  17.0  1015 PM 12/19                        
GERRARDSTOWN 1 ESE    14.5   900 PM 12/19                        

..HAMPSHIRE COUNTY

SPRINGFIELD           22.0   739 PM 12/19                        
LEHEW 2 WNW           20.0   739 PM 12/19                        
CAPON BRIDGE 6 SW     19.0   936 PM 12/19                        

..JEFFERSON COUNTY

SHENANDOAH JUNCTION   20.0   900 PM 12/19                        

..MINERAL COUNTY

KEYSER                21.0   738 PM 12/19                        

Washington DC Snow Freqs: December Records

For related and more recent posts, see:

• Record Snow
• Washington DC Weather Records
• Winter Weather

Generations of Washington area snow freaks have learned the hard way not to count their flakes until they're baked, but all indications are that a Big One is cooking in the kitchen of Momma Nature's Weather Grill. The latest National Weather Service forecast, updated within the hour, is calling for total snow accumulations of 14-16" by Saturday night. Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel has his usual excellent analysis of the storm here:
It's as easy as A + B = C.

In order to see how big the forecast amount really is, Momma's data dicers dusted off a chart originally published three years ago. Including the two trace amounts and 2.6" recorded in the meantime, the fraction of years with no measurable December snow now stands at 23% for the 121 years since official records began in 1888. Only 11 times (9%) have monthly totals exceeded 10". The most recent occurrence was in 1973 with 11". The others were:

1962 16.2"
1966 16.1"
1932 14.5"
1904 13.2"
1890 13"
1910 12"
1957 12"
1908 11.5"
1935 11" 

The 1973 amount consisted mainly of 6" on the 16th and 4.2" on the 17th. The last time 10" fell on a single calendar day was Dec. 4, 1957 with 11.1". Since records began at the current National Airport location in 1929, there have been only two other December days with 10" or more: the 26th in 1941 (10") and the 17th in 1932 (11.5"). The 11.5" in 1932 holds the all-time December daily snowfall record. Of the 12 heaviest 3-day snow totals (12.7" or higher), none have occurred in December.

Images (click to enlarge): Precipitation forecast from The Weather Channel;
CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data, photo © Kevin Ambrose;
Energy and math symbols holiday snowflakes from MIT, animated version here.

Comedy Central Covers Copenhagen Climate Conference

"It snowed in Houston!!! And, they elected a lesbian mayor!!! And, scientists get paid!!!"

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
World of Warmcraft
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

New Orleans Doubles December Rainfall Record 3 Daily Records in 4 Days

Dec. 21 Update: After several days of drying out, the latest 5-day precipitation forecast (to the right) issued this morning from the National Weather Service/NCEP shows the Gulf Coast getting hammered again, and the forecast discussion from New Orleans indicates the likelihood of severe weather as well.

Noon Update: An additional 0.68" fell after midnight, raising the monthly total to 24.93", just 0.18" below the all-time record.

Baton Rouge also set a daily record with 2.41", exceeding the 2.35" in 1961.

The 13.14" through midnight at Mobile is a new December record, breaking the record which has stood since 1853. Unofficially, Mobile has received another 0.63" since midnight.

December 18 Update: A total of 1.77" on Thursday brings the New Orleans December rainfall to 24.25", within less than an inch of the all-time record for any month. The Thursday amount is a new daily record for December 18, the third time this has happened in the last 4 days. The old record was 1.46" in 1995.

Original post:
El Niño events tend to bring heavy rainfall to the southern U.S., including the Gulf Coast, and the current one is expected to be no different, but the first half of December has gotten off to a spectacular start. Aided by two consecutive record-breaking days, New Orleans Airport has doubled its previous December monthly rainfall record in just two weeks.

Monday's 3.28" broke the December 14 record of 2.04" set in 1976, and Tuesday's 5.70" almost doubled the daily record of 2.87" set in 1970. Halfway through the month, the December total of 22.48" is more than double the airport record of 10.77" set in 1977. It also exceeds the metro New Orleans December record of 14.43" in 1905. This is now the wettest month ever recorded at the airport since records began in 1947, easily surpassing the 21.18" in May 1995. The total is also within about 2.5" of the all-time New Orleans area monthly record of 25.11" mainly produced by a tropical storm in October 1937. Area records extend back to 1871.

The excessive rain has led to widespread street flooding in the New Orleans metro area.

The monthly rainfall so far of 12.70" at Mobile is the second wettest December total in records extending back to 1842. The record is 13.09" in 1853.

Images (click to enlarge): 5-day precipitation forecast through 6 am CST December 26, December precipitation departure from average through 6 am CST December 16, 5-day precipitation forecast through 6 am CST December 21, all from National Weather Service

Time-Lapse History of Human Global CO2 Emissions

From the posted description at YouTube:

Animated time-lapse video of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in map form, spanning the 18th century until this current first decade of the 21st century. Shows the start in England and radiating to Europe, US and then Asia.

The video makes it easy to visualize the geographical distribution and trends in post industrial revolution anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over 255 years.

Whether you are worried about the consequences of carbon pollution or a sceptic of global warming, you should take a look, since this data is based on recorded use of fossil fuels, gas flaring and cement production, but not land-use changes.

The majority of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are represented in this video by Robert W. Corkery using data from ORNL on a Nasa Blue Marble background image. Music copyright Robert W. Corkery 2007.

Mid Atlantic Precipitation: December Update II

See here for more Washington, DC weather records.

While not as drenching as the previous event, Sunday's precipitation added almost another half an inch to Washington's soggy December totals. The month-to-date amount of 3.47" is now well above the average for an entire December and over 150% of the month-to-date average. Even an average amount through the rest of the month will be enough for the total to finish over 50% above average. The year-to-date amount of 43.58" is also well above the yearly average of 39.35", although it's almost 3" below last year's near-record total.

Here are the daily (Sunday), month-to-date, and year-to-date totals for the Washington-Baltimore region:

Washington National 0.43"/3.47"/43.58"
Washington Dulles   0.58"/3.07"/45.71"
Baltimore (BWI)     0.67"/4.35"/51.86" 

Images (click to enlarge):
Washington DC monthly precipitation amounts and percentages above or below average, CapitalClimate charts from NWS data

Friedman to Copenhagen: Get Real

Thomas Friedman, author of Hot, Flat, and Crowded (just released in a paperback edition), stopped at CNBC for an extended interview this morning on his way to the Copenhagen climate conference. His basic message was that economic revival is strongly dependent on green technology. He pointed out that one out of three wind turbine systems worldwide is now made and exported by Denmark. "If you don't believe in hot," he said, "Just focus on flat and crowded." Video below:

Meanwhile, economic assistance to developing countries and the size of emission cuts by rich countries continued to be the main points of contention at the conference:

Jeroen Van De Veer, former CEO of Shell, discussed the role of business in the development of climate policy:

Jean-Pascal Tricoire, CEO of Schneider Electric, also expressed his views on the subject:

Climate Chief Q & A

Thomas Karl, Director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, held an online Q & A session on Friday. His concluding comments:

What I hope we all got out of this is that the Earth is warming at an unprecedented pace, that there is ample evidence for that, and that human activity is largely to blame. It is now up to the United Nations Framework Convention, 15th Conference of the Parties in Copenhagen, to help us solve this problem.

Full text is at the silicon-based WaPo.

Video Weather Forecast

In honor of AOL once again becoming an independent company today, here is the Washington, DC forecast from The Weather Channel via AOL Video (click the link to select other locations). Back in the days when the Web was young, the Climate Capitalist was a Systems Performance Analyst at AOL.

Watch more AOL News videos on AOL Video

The Rabett Does Dirty Hare-y

Perfesser Bunny sez:

Eli knows what you’re thinking. “Is climate change really happening?” Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement the bunny kind of lost track himself. But being greenhouse gases are the most powerful forcing we know, and the best science predicts disaster ahead, you’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

Image (click to enlarge): Yesterday's Daily Dose from Doonesbury@Slate

Mid Atlantic Precipitation Update

See here for more Washington, DC weather records.

The major storm moving through the central part of the U.S. brought record-breaking rain for December 9 to the Washington/Baltimore metro area. The 1.29" which fell at Washington National exceeded the record of 1.05" set in 1931, although that was previously the lowest daily record for December. Baltimore (BWI) also broke its record with 1.41", well above the old record of 1.08" in 1991. Washington Dulles, on the other hand, with a much shorter period of record, had 0.93", which failed to break the 1973 record of 1.12".

In the first 9 days of the month, Washington National is now within 0.01" of the average total for all of December. This is almost 2.5 times the average December amount to date. At 4.43", the November rainfall was just under 50% above average. April, May, June, and October, the other above-average months this year, have all been at least 50% above. February and July were over 50% below average. If current trends continue, December will be the seventh month in 2009 which is at least 50% above or below average.

Daily, monthly, and year-to-date amounts are:

Washington National 1.29"/3.04"/43.15"
Washington Dulles   0.93"/2.49"/45.13"
Baltimore (BWI)     1.41"/3.68"/51.19"  

Other daily records set in the Mid Atlantic region (old record in parentheses):

Wallops Island VA 2.93" (0.93", 1995)
Martinsburg WV    1.15" (0.98", 1978)
Newark NJ         1.96" (1.66", 1978)
Atlantic City NJ  2.51" (1.31", 1986)
Islip NY          1.74" (1.07", 1995)
Reading PA        1.16" (1.12", 1978)
Philadelphia PA   2.13" (1.91", 1978)
Pittsburgh PA     0.85" (0.71", 1878)
Wilmington DE     2.28" (1.55", 1978) 
Georgetown DE     1.93" (1.38", 1963) 

Images (click to enlarge):
- 24-hour precipitation ending 7 am December 9, from National Weather Service
- Washington DC 2008-2009 monthly precipitation amounts and percentages above or below average, CapitalClimate charts from NWS data

Pathetic Post Pimps Palin Propaganda

As if regularly publishing George Will's anti-scientific ravings weren't enough, the WaPo sinks to a new level today by attempting to become the high-fiber Facebook. Sarah Palin's anti-climate-science recycled Facebook page is given prominent placement as an "opinion" piece. ThingsBreak has links to reactions. Here are a few more:

• AtlanticWire: Washington Post Gets Burned for Publishing Palin's Op-Ed
  
• Discover/The Intersection (Chris Mooney): Sarah Palin’s Bogus Climate Arguments Graduate From Facebook to the Washington Post
  
• Chicago Tribune/The Swamp: Sarah Palin: Obama, boycott Copenhagen
  
• Newser: Post, Palin Skewered for Climate Op-Ed
  
• FirstPost (UK): Washington Post slated over Palin’s climate rant
  
• Gawker: Sarah Palin's Washington Post Op-Ed Debunked
  
• Politico: Palin's climate change
  
• L.A. Times/The Ticket: Washington Post is booed for giving Palin op-ed platform
  
• Kansas City Star/Midwest Voices: Surprise: Palin calls Copenhagen conference a sham

Image (click to enlarge): Today's Daily Dose from Doonesbury@Slate

November 2009 3rd Warmest in U.S.

Following a cold October, U.S. temperatures rebounded strongly in November to reach their third warmest levels on record. The preliminary analysis for November 2009, posted by the National Climatic Data Center this morning, shows that the monthly average of 46.5°F was 4.0°F above the 20th Century average. Regionally, the Southwest and South were above normal, and the West North Central through the Northeast were all much above normal. Only the Northwest, West, and Southeast were near normal.

Much above normal temperatures were widespread on an individual state basis:

• Record warmest: Delaware
  
• Second warmest: Wisconsin, New Jersey
  
• Third warmest: Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Iowa, and North Dakota

Temperatures were in the top 10 warmest for 18 other states, and no individual state was below normal.

Precipitation was heavy in the Southeast, Mid Atlantic, and northern New England, but most of the country was drier than average in November. Nationally, it was the 18th driest November since 1895. Virginia had its second wettest November, and North and South Carolina had their sixth and ninth wettest Novembers, respectively. On the other hand, nine states had precipitation in the top ten driest Novembers, and 25 states in all were below average.

Images (click to enlarge): U.S. November average temperature since 1895, statewide temperature and precipitation ranks for November 2009; from National Climatic Data Center

Beavis and Butthead Do Climate Change

The Climate Crock enlists the Dumb Duo to help explain the phony flap over the Hack Attack.
"He said, 'ain us'. Heh, heh.":

Record Heat on East Coast

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold

Daily high temperature records were set from Maine to Florida on December 3:

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET AT BANGOR ME YESTERDAY.   
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 60 SET IN 1932.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE PORTLAND   
JETPORT TODAY. THIS SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD OF 55 DEGREES SET IN   
1986.  
  
THE 68 DEGREE READING WAS THE 4TH WARMEST EVER RECORDED AT THE   
PORTLAND JETPORT IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. HERE IS A LIST OF THE   
WARMEST DECEMBER TEMPERATURES AT THE JETPORT...  
  
RANK     TEMPERATURE     DATE  
  
 1       71 DEGREES      DECEMBER 6, 2001  
         71 DEGREES      DECEMBER 7, 1998  
 3       69 DEGREES      DECEMBER 4, 1982  
 4       68 DEGREES      DECEMBER 3, 2009   <===  
 5       66 DEGREES      DECEMBER 1, 2001  
         66 DEGREES      DECEMBER 23, 1990  
 7       65 DEGREES      DECEMBER 4, 1998  
 8       64 DEGREES      DECEMBER 12, 1979  
 9       62 DEGREES      DECEMBER 1, 1962  
10       61 DEGREES      DECEMBER 1, 2006  
         61 DEGREES      DECEMBER 2, 1998  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES WAS SET AT CONCORD NH   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 60 SET IN 1932.  

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN  
SOUTH BURLINGTON VERMONT WAS 59 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS  
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 56 DEGREES SET ON THIS DATE IN 1982.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT KNAPP STATE AIRPORT IN MONTPELIER VERMONT  
WAS 59 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 52   
DEGREES SET ON THIS DATE IN 1982.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS MUSEUM IN SAINT JOHNSBURY  
VERMONT WAS 54 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TIES THE RECORD   
PREVIOUSLY SET ON THIS DATE IN 1970.  

THE TEMPERATURE PEAKED AT 69 DEGREES AT LOGAN AIRPORT IN EAST BOSTON   
MA AT 206 PM.  
  
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 DEGREES DATING BACK TO 1932. THE   
NORMAL HIGH FOR DECEMBER 3RD IN BOSTON MA IS 46 DEGREES.   
  
THE TEMPERATURE PEAKED AT 67 DEGREES AT THE BLUE HILL OBSERVATORY  
IN MILTON MA AT 1 PM.   
  
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 DEGREES SET IN 1950 AND 1932. THE   
NORMAL HIGH FOR DECEMBER 3RD IN MILTON MA IS 43 DEGREES.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 DEGREES WAS SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 1998.  

ON THURSDAY...DECEMBER 3...2009...THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 62 DEGREES   
AT ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AT 1051 AM EST. THIS SETS A NEW   
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH   
TEMPERATURE WAS 58 DEGREES...SET IN 1998.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WAS SET AT WILMINGTON DE TODAY.   
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1998.  

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT WALLOPS ISLAND   
VA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1991.  

THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE TODAY AT FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL   
AIRPORT REACHED 89 DEGREES AT 1:40 PM EST. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD   
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER 3RD...PREVIOUSLY 87 DEGREES SET IN   
1921. THIS ALSO IS JUST ONE DEGREE SHY OF TYING THE ALL TIME RECORD   
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...WHICH IS 90 DEGREES SET   
ON DECEMBER 8, 1919.  

Record November Rainfall in Virginia, North and South Carolina, Georgia

Update: The National Climatic Data Center also reports that all-time November daily precipitation records were set on the 10th through the 12th from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ida:

               Amount  Previous record Date
Virginia 
Lynchburg       2.81"        2.54"     Nov. 29, 1934
Danville        2.67"        2.58"     Nov.  9, 1962
Norfolk         4.90"        3.31"     Nov. 21, 1952
Richmond        3.51"        3.00"     Nov. 24, 1959  
North Carolina
New Bern        3.99"        3.57"     Nov. 22, 2006
Elizabeth City  4.33"        3.54"     Nov.  2, 1969
South Carolina
N. Myrtle Beach 3.63"        3.33"     Nov. 21, 2005
Georgia
Columbus        5.44"        4.15"     Nov. 25, 1992
Atlanta         4.05"        3.98"     Nov. 12, 1935 

Original post:
November rainfall smashed monthly records by a wide margin in central and southeastern Virginia, according to the National Weather Service:

A RECORD MONTHLY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 9.20 INCHES WAS SET AT NORFOLK
VA IN NOVEMBER 2009. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.01 SET IN 1951.    

A RECORD MONTHLY MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF 9.60 INCHES WAS SET AT RICHMOND   
VA IN NOVEMBER 2009. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 7.64 SET IN 1959.  

Image (click to enlarge): Virginia precipitation departure from average in November 2009, from NWS

Colbert Challenges Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, Considers CRU Crack

Stephen Colbert interviews Prof. Dan Esty of Yale on the upcoming Copenhagen Climate Conference, and discusses the email hack at the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia:

The Colbert Report	Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Something Is Melting in Denmark - Dan Esty
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor U.S. Speedskating

More Winter Weather Outlooks

See here for other seasonal forecasts, including the current winter energy forecast.

Bob Ryan and his colleagues Veronica Johnson, Tom Kierein, and Chuck Bell at WRC-TV, Channel 4, give their 2009-2010 winter outlooks for Washington, DC. Bob's forecast: colder and snowier than average.




Howard Bernstein, Kim Martucci, and Topper Shutt at WUSA-9 are predicting near-average temperatures and above-average snowfall.

Toronto Sets November Snow Record

Toronto finished November 2009 without as much as a trace of snow. That's the first time in 70 years of official records that there has not been any snow in November. Unofficial records indicate that this may have broken a 162-year record. Average snowfall in Toronto for the month is 8 cm. (3.2").

Light snow was observed this morning from 3 to 5 am at Toronto's Pearson Airport.

Image (click to enlarge): Ski slope at Dagmar Ski Resort east of Toronto on November 30, from CTV

Syracuse Shatters Snowless Streak

Dec. 3 Update: The total December snowfall through 5 pm today is a trace. The forecast calls for a 40% or lower chance of snow showers through Tuesday (the 8th).

PM Update: Today's precipitation through 5 pm is 0.01" with a trace of snow. The next chance of snow showers is Thursday night into Friday, with increasing chances on Saturday.

Original post:
Here's a record that will be hard to break: Monday was the 279th consecutive day without an inch or more of snow in Syracuse, NY. The last time 1" fell was February 24. The old record was 276 days from February 28th through November 30, 1946. The third place record is 273 days from March 23 through December 21, 1998.

Average snowfall in Syracuse is 11.1" in November; the lowest amount was a trace in 1966 and 1998. This year's total of 0.6" is the fifth lowest since 1950. Records in Syracuse go back to 1902.

The latest forecast calls for snow showers with accumulations around an inch on Tuesday.

AMS Responds to Service-of-Denial Climate Hack

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has issued a statement in response to the recent deniosphere blog storm over the theft and distribution of emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia. The AMS reaffirms its commitment to its Statement on Climate Change, originally drafted in late 2006:

It was developed following a rigorous procedure that included drafting and review by experts in the field, comments by the membership, and careful review by the AMS Council prior to approval as a statement of the Society. The statement is based on a robust body of research reported in the peer-reviewed literature.

The AMS also points out that the artificial controversy generated by the out-of-context quoting of selected emails carries virtually no weight in light of the existing body of climate science:

For climate change research, the body of research in the literature is very large and the dependence on any one set of research results to the comprehensive understanding of the climate system is very, very small. Even if some of the charges of improper behavior in this particular case turn out to be true — which is not yet clearly the case — the impact on the science of climate change would be very limited.

The University of East Anglia updated its statement on the issue on Saturday.

The Economist has an analysis of the hack in its Nov. 26 edition: Mail-strom

Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground relates the hack to the mud-slinging industry in his blog: The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy

Image: From The Economist

Chicago Climate Course

With the overwhelming quantity of global warming material on the Web, it's a lot of work to separate the Drudge Sludge from the Real Deal. CapitalClimate has a set of links to various climate tutorials and references in the left column of this page. A post today at RealClimate points out that David Archer of the University of Chicago has now uploaded video of his entire course called Global Warming. The course description:

This 10-week course for non-science majors focuses on a single problem: assessing the risk of human-caused climate change. The story ranges from physics to chemistry, biology, geology, fluid mechanics, and quantum mechanics, to economics and social sciences. The class will consider evidence from the distant past and projections into the distant future, keeping the human time scale of the next several centuries as the bottom line. The lectures follow a textbook, "Global Warming, Understanding the Forecast," written for the course.

The files are in Quicktime format (m4v), which should be iPod compatible.

New Satellite Data Contradict Antarctic Ice Loss Assumptions

Update: SkepticalScience puts some additional context on the new results:
East Antarctica is now losing ice

Original post:
A paper published online this week in the journal Nature Geoscience, "Accelerated Antarctic ice loss from satellite gravity measurements", shows increased rates of ice reduction in Antarctica. The data from the GRACE satellite confirmed earlier indications of ice loss in West Antarctica at the rate of 132 gigatonnes of ice per year. More surprising, however, was the result that East Antarctica, which had been considered stable, is also losing ice mass. The rate of decline in East Antarctica is estimated at 57 gigatonnes a year. The estimates, based on satellite data from 2002 to 2009, show the maximum loss rates in coastal areas.

Lead author Jianli Chen of the University of Texas Center for Space Research said:

While we are seeing a trend of accelerating ice loss in Antarctica, we had considered East Antarctica to be inviolate. But if it is losing mass, as our data indicate, it may be an indication the state of East Antarctica has changed. Since it's the biggest ice sheet on Earth, ice loss there can have a large impact on global sea level rise in the future.

Image (click to enlarge): GRACE estimate of Antarctic ice loss, from University of Texas at Austin Center for Space Research

Winter 2009-1010 Update: El Niño Influence Continues

See here for other seasonal forecasts, including the current winter energy forecast.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center winter 2009-10 outlook, updated this morning, continues to expect a pattern strongly affected by El Niño. Like the preliminary outlook issued a month ago, the latest one features warmth from Washington and Oregon southeastward through the Rockies, northern Arizona, and New Mexico and across much of the Midwest to Wisconsin and Michigan. Cool temperatures are predicted from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast to the Mid Atlantic area as far as extreme southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Also consistent with a persistent El Niño is a precipitation pattern with above-average amounts from California through most of Texas, the southern Gulf Coast states, Florida, and the southeastern Atlantic coast.

The main difference from the previous outlook is an increase in the probability for warmer than average temperatures to 50% or above in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and northernmost Wisconsin and Michigan.

Images (click to enlarge): U.S. winter 2009-2010 temperature and precipitation outlook and most recent Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from average, from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

October Global Temperature Sixth Warmest

Click here for other seasonal weather analyses

The National Climatic Data Center preliminary analysis for October was posted late Friday. Unlike the cold average for the U.S., the average global temperature for land and ocean combined was 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This makes it the sixth warmest in history. The average land temperature alone was also the sixth warmest, while the average ocean temperature was the fifth warmest. For the year to date, the January through October average is tied with 2007 as the fifth warmest. (Note: The preliminary analysis was made before data from Canada were available, so global averages may change slightly.)

Other than the U.S. and northern Europe, nearly all land areas were warmer than average. The warmest regions relative to normal were in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly Alaska and northern and eastern Russia. In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand reported the coldest October in 64 years, with some all-time record low October temperatures. On the other hand, Darwin, Australia had its warmest month since records began in 1941:

The previous record for the month of October and for any month of the year was 34.4°C, most recently in October 2008. This October, the daily maximum temperature during the month reached 35.0°C on 13 days, the highest on record for any month, and there were another 4 days with 34.9°C.

Record warm temperatures have continued into November in Australia, where Adelaide in South Australia has recorded its first ever spring heatwave of 8 consecutive days above 35°C; 5 consecutive days are required for a heatwave, and the previous record was 4 in 1894.

Images (click to enlarge): October 2009 global temperature departures from average, historical departures since 1880; from National Climatic Data Center