Record New England Tornado

The National Weather Service (NWS) has updated its review of the tornado which ripped through New Hampshire last week (July 24). The EF-2 tornado had a path 50 miles long, and the maximum width was over 1/3 of a mile. In an update to his coverage of the 2008 tornado season, The Weather Channel's Dr. Greg Forbes points out that this is the longest tornado track ever observed in New England, exceeding the infamous 1953 Worcester tornado by 4 miles. The longest previous track in New Hampshire was 15 miles (1955).

Video from NECN.

Sky is Falling! Snow in Sydney!

Update: Added definition of soft hail.

The global warming denialist blogosphere is undoubtedly salivating, but recent reports of snow in Sydney, Australia have been somewhat premature. Even the Australian press, home to Murdochian sensationalism, is reporting that the Bureau of Meteorology has described the precipitation as "soft hail" and sleet. Soft hail is generally known as snow pellets or graupel in the U.S. Some snow did fall at higher elevations, where such occurrences are not rare.

As far as temperatures are concerned, the lowest temperature this month at Sydney of 5.5°C was not only well above freezing, it was warmer than the low of 3.7°C last July, which was above average at Sydney and across the state of New South Wales as a whole.

Capital Corner: Green Auto Loan

Update: Corrected link to Veridian CU.

Your new car can be red, white, blue, black, or any other color, but if it is rated at 30 mpg or higher (combined city and highway), MCT Federal Credit Union will give you a ¼% discount on the loan rate. Rates are as low as 3.99% for 36-month terms or less. Eligibility for membership in MCT includes teachers and students of public and private schools in Montgomery County, MD, as well as their families. Employees of over 100 companies and organizations in Montgomery County are also eligible.

Elsewhere around the Beltway, a green discount is also being offered by NIH Federal Credit Union. Their discount is ½% for vehicles getting city mpg of 25 or better.

A search reveals that similar programs are being offered by other credit unions around the country. Among them are:

• Stanford FCU
  
• Sound CU (Tacoma, WA)
  
• Columbia CU (Portland, OR)
  
• Veridian CU (Iowa)
  
• Envision CU (Florida)

EPA Email-gate: Senators Demand Resignation

Today's WaPo notes (via AP report) that 4 senators have called on EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson to resign over allegations that he lied to Congress over the rejection of regulations to limit CO₂ emissions: Democrats Urge Head Of EPA To Resign

Other coverage is provided by:

• SF Chron (Page A1): 4 Senate Dems urge EPA chief to resign
  
• Reuters: Three senators call for EPA chief to resign
  
• LATi blogs: Boxer to EPA director: resign
  
• Federal Times: Senators call on EPA chief to resign
  
• The Hill: Senate Dems call on EPA chief to resign
  
• WSJ: Democrats Ask for Probe Into EPA Chief's Testimony
  
• UK Guardian: Democratic senators call for investigation of US environmental agency

DC Heat on Historical Beat

With a temperature of 90° at 2 pm this afternoon, Washington DC is right on the recent historical track for the number of days with 90° or higher temperatures. The 14 occurrences so far this July are exactly equal to the historical average and the numbers observed in each of the previous two years. Cumulatively for the season, the total of 22 is one short of the long term average through July and exactly equal to last year's amount.

With a late-season surge, including 3 days in October, the year 2007 went on to exceed the annual average of 37 by 7 days. The previous year, however, ended up with one less than the long term average.

CapitalClimate chart, from NWS data

Colbert Conquers Carbon Conspiracy

Update: The Intersection science blog recently reviewed Roston's book.

Interview with author Eric Roston on last night's Report:

Huge Arctic Ice Chunk Breaks Off

DeSmogBlog has a link to today's Toronto Globe and Mail story, "Huge chunk snaps off storied Arctic ice shelf":

A four-square-kilometre chunk has broken off Ward Hunt Ice Shelf - the largest remaining ice shelf in the Arctic - threatening the future of the giant frozen mass that northern explorers have used for years as the starting point for their treks.

Scientists say the break, the largest on record since 2005, is the latest indication that climate change is forcing the drastic reshaping of the Arctic coastline, where 9,000 square kilometres of ice have been whittled down to less than 1,000 over the past century, and are only showing signs of decreasing further.

The AP and Reuters, and The Canadian Press also have stories on the subject.

Satellite evidence of large cracks in the ice shelf was confirmed in April when a team of scientists and Canadian Rangers observed that the shelf had fractured into three main pieces.

Olympian Heights of Air Pollution

As the pollution level reaches Code Orange here in Spin City on the Potomac, attention is shifting to the pervasive pollution of Beijing. With the Olympic opening ceremonies only 10 days away, reports indicate that attempts to reduce air pollution effects on the athletic competition are having limited effects.

In late June, Chinese officials announced plans to cut auto traffic in half with an odd-even driving schedule and to close polluting manufacturing plants. Despite these restrictions now being in effect, today's WSJ reports that pollution readings have exceeded government targets on 4 out of the last 8 days. The opening of the athletes' village on Sunday was marred by "pea-soup fog". Accompanying WSJ video notes that Beijing is not the only Chinese city contending with serious pollution problems.

If pollution levels remain high, more drastic measures may be implemented. Contingency plans call for reducing vehicle traffic by 90% and ordering further factory closings. China Daily reported yesterday that emergency measures, if required, would be announced with a 48-hour lead time.

Today's Morning Edition on NPR discussed the potential effects of pollution on athletes. Events which are most likely to be impacted are the outdoor endurance competitions, such as the triathlon, road cycling, mountain biking, race walking, and the swimming and running marathons.

Athletes are not the only ones at risk, however. Two researchers at Northwestern University's medical school have warned that breathing high levels of pollution can be very dangerous for spectators in certain risk groups. The effects can even extend into the plane ride home.

The latest Newsweek, out today, includes a column by science writer Sharon Begley analyzing the most controversial aspect of Beijing's attempts to control the Olympic atmosphere. In order to try to prevent rainfall from dampening the opening and closing ceremonies, a massive $100 million cloud seeding operation will be carried out by an army of 32,000 rainmakers. As Begley rightly notes, decades of experimentation with cloud seeding have failed to provide objective evidence that the technique is effective. The current official statement on weather modification by the American Meteorological Society, adopted in 1998, indicates that evidence of artificial rainfall enhancement is inconclusive at best.

The current Ministry of Environmental Protection pollution index reading of 90 for Beijing is slightly below the level of 100 considered serious by the government. The weather forecast for Wednesday calls for cloudy skies, light winds, and a temperature range of 23-31 °C.

Image, from Getty Images via Wall Street Journal: Smog in Beijing's Central Business District on Monday.

EPA Email-gate: Document Peekaboo

The story of the Environmental Pollution Agency's childish games to cover up its aborted CO₂ regulation process continued with a report on Friday buried 18 pages behind the WaPo's ongoing multi-part rehashing of a 7-year-old murder investigation. The WaPo article describes how the EPA provided a peekaboo copy of the Dec. 5 email from the agency to the White House proposing to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The email was provided only in hard copy and on loan for viewing by 3 Senators and their aides. Excerpts from the document, published on the Energy and Public Works Committee web site, include:

In sum, the Administrator is proposing to find that elevated levels of GHG concentrations may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public welfare.

Meanwhile, EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson has "declined" to testify to multiple Senate committees regarding the interference of the White House in the decision-making process. At a press conference, Sen. Boxer (D-CA) condemned the Administrator's actions.

Climate Progress has more commentary on "Bush's Puppets".

Dolly Dying Last Advisory Issued on Tropical Storm

Another July tropical record falls

The last National Hurricane Center advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly was issued this afternoon, and the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression. Maximum winds were 35 mph as it continued moving west northwest at 14 mph. Although the wind circulation has weakened, the remnants of Dolly will continue to generate very heavy rains and flooding through Friday in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.

With the 4.5 days Dolly was a named storm, 3.75 days from Cristobal, and 17.25 days from Bertha, this July has had a total of 25.5 named storm days. This breaks the record for July tropical storm activity of 25.25 set in 2005.

Downgraded Dolly Delivers Deluges Tropical Storm Moving Up Rio Grande Valley

2 pm Update: Tropical Storm Dolly has weakened to maximum winds of 40 mph and is now moving west northwest at 13 mph.

Hurricane Dolly was downgraded to a tropical storm last night, but it continues to drop copious amounts of precipitation on the Rio Grande Valley. The 6.68" which fell at Brownsville yesterday was a record amount for any day in July. The July total of 13.20" has also smashed the old monthly record of 9.43". The cooling effect of the rain also held the maximum temperature to 78°, which tied the coolest all-time July daily maximum. Brownsville broke another daily rainfall record earlier this month on the 8th, when 1.00" fell.

Daily records were also set at McAllen (3.09" vs. previous 0.45"), Harlingen (3.42" vs. 0.54"), Corpus Christi (2.86" vs. 1.47"),

Image from National Weather Service shows 24-hour precipitation in southern Texas ending at 7 am CDT this morning. The white area represents 10" or more. Click to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Dolly's maximum winds are now 45 mph. The storm is moving west northwest at 9 mph from a position near Laredo, Texas. Further weakening is likely today.

Dolly Continues to Weaken Moving Inland

Hurricane Dolly continues to lose strength as it moves further inland after making landfall over extreme southern Texas earlier this afternoon. Maximum winds are now 85 mph. Dolly is moving northwest around 8 mph from a position about 50 miles north of Brownsville, TX. A gradual turn to a more westerly direction is expected, along with further weakening. Heavy rainfall amounts from 8 to 12 inches, with possible isolated amounts up to 20 inches, are forecast over south Texas and northeast Mexico.

EPA Email-gate: More Testimony

The saga of the Environmental Pollution Agency's CO₂ policy-making process continued Tuesday with the testimony of former EPA political appointee Jason Burnett. Today's WaPo reported that Burnett testified to the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee that the White House ordered EPA Administrator Stephen Johnson to reverse a decision supporting California's request to implement rules cutting greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Johnson told the committe under oath in January that the decision was his alone.

A webcast of yesterday's hearing is available on the committee's web site. The committee minority responded with their usual anti-scientific propaganda.

One thing is clear: At least one of these EPA officials is not telling the truth. Burnett's rather unusual career path is described in a profile in yesterday's NYTi, which notes:

What remains curious is how Mr. Burnett, a contributor to Democratic candidates -- including Senator Barack Obama, the presumptive presidential nominee -- and a policy specialist who counts some of the wealth of Silicon Valley’s Packard family as his inheritance -- came to be hired at the agency four years ago at the age of 27 as an adviser.

Gristmill blog has some additional comments on the hearings.

Hurricane Dolly Strengthens Slowly Approaching Coast as Category 2

3 pm Update: Hurricane Dolly has made landfall over South Padre Island. Maximum winds have decreased to 95 mph.

1 pm Update: At noon CDT, the eyewall of Hurricane Dolly was crossing South Padre Island. The center was meandering offshore, but was expected to reach the coast in a couple of hours.

Hurricane Dolly increased in strength this morning to a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. It has slowed its forward motion and is now approaching the coast on a northwest track at 7 mph. The center of the storm was located 30 miles east northeast of Brownsville, Texas at 10 am CDT.

Tropical Storm Cristobal has lost its tropical characteristics, and the last advisory was issued at 5 am by the National Hurricane Center.

Dolly Strengthens to Hurricane Force

Cristobal Losing Tropical Characteristics

Tropical Storm Dolly strengthened today to become a Category 1 hurricane, the second so far this season. Maximum winds are now 75 mph, and further strengthening is likely before landfall near the Texas/Mexico border tomorrow. Hurricane Warnings remain in effect from Brownsville to Corpus Christi, TX and along the Mexican coast southward to Rio San Fernando. The storm is moving northwest at 10 mph from a position about 165 miles east southeast of Brownsville.

As Tropical Storm Cristobal accelerates northeastward, it is beginning to lose its tropical characteristics. Maximum winds are 50 mph, and weakening is expected over the next 24 hours. The storm is located about 170 miles south southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, moving northeast at 28 mph.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre has reported heavy rain and some local flooding along the coast of Nova Scotia from the outer fringes of Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Dolly Continues to Organize

Tropical Triple Sets Another July Record

11 pm Update: Watches have been upgraded to Warnings for Mexican and Texas coasts.

Tropical Storm Dolly continues to become better organized in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the strength remains level with maximum winds of 50 mph, an increase in intensity remains likely in the next 24 hours. Watches remain in effect for the northern Mexican and southern Texas coasts. Movement is to the west northwest at 18 mph, but a gradual decrease in speed is expected.

Latest satellite image of Dolly from Wunderground.com

The Associated Press reports that the governor of Texas has activated 1200 National Guard troops and other emergency personnel in southern Texas.

Cristobal continues to move northeast, away from the coast, at 13 mph; a turn to a more easterly direction is forecast. Maximum winds are 65 mph with some weakening predicted by late tomorrow.

Jeff Masters in his WunderBlog says that the tropical triple of Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly on the 19th set a record for the first time there were 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic on the same day in July. He probably meant to refer to the 20th (Sunday).

EPA: Get a Life

It took until Saturday to get around to it, but the WaPo had a front-page article on the Environmental Pollution Agency's book-cooking covered on the Colbert Report early last week:
Cosmic Markdown: EPA Says Life Is Worth Less

Dolly Drilling Damage Likely Low

Reuters is reporting that the projected path of Dolly is likely to miss major oil-producing areas of the Gulf of Mexico. Shell has begun evacuating workers from drilling platforms, but production thus far is unaffected. In commodity market trading near mid-day, oil prices were up less than $1 at the bargain price of under $130 a barrel.

Tropical Storm Dolly Heads for Gulf: Hurricane Watch for South Texas Coast

Cristobal Clearing Carolina Coast

The center of Tropical Storm Dolly is moving away from the northern Yucatan coast today, heading for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Texas coast from Brownsville to Port O'Connor, and a Tropical Storm Watch extends northward to San Luis Pass. Maximum winds are near 50 mph, and the storm could become a Category 1 hurricane by tomorrow. Tropical Storm Dolly is moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move away from the Carolina coast, but it has strengthened, with maximum winds of 65 mph. Cristobal is moving northeast at about 13 mph on a track which should bring it near the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in the next couple of days.

Bye-Bye Bertha; Hello Dolly

The stormy area moving westward across the Caribbean in recent days has evolved into the fourth named storm of this young tropical season. Based on aircraft reconnaissance, Tropical Storm Dolly has maximum winds of 45 mph as of 5 pm Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Dolly for the Yucatan Peninsula from the Mexico/Belize border to Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward. The storm is moving northwest at 14 mph. The forecast track takes Tropical Storm Dolly across Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move on a track parallel to the North Carolina coast. Maximum winds remain near 45 mph, and little change in strength is forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning for Cristobal is in effect from Cape Lookout, NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

The last tropical advisory was issued on Tropical Storm Bertha this morning as it became a strong extratropical storm with winds still at 70 mph. It continues to head northeast toward Iceland at the rapid rate of 36 mph.

Cristobal Christened

5 pm Update:Tropical Storm Cristobal's maximum winds have increased slightly to 45 mph. Movement continues to be to the northeast at 7 mph, parallel to the Carolina coast. The current position is about 200 miles southwest of Cape Hatteras. Some strengthening is still expected.

At 2 pm, Tropical Depression 3 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Cristobal, with minimal strength of 40 mph winds. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from South Santee River, SC to the North Carolina/Virginia border. Some strengthening is likely in the next couple of days.

NOAA data buoy observations in the vicinity are available here.

Tropics Continue to Pop: TD 3, Cristobal Wannabe

The tropics continue their early-season activity. At 11 pm, Tropical Depression 3 was formed off the South Carolina coast. Rapid development is not likely, but a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River, SC to Cape Hatteras. Maximum winds are currently 30 mph, and some strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours. This will become Tropical Storm Cristobal if it does develop.

Bertha Back to Hurricane Strength

Tropical Storm Bertha strengthened today back to hurricane force, with maximum winds of 75 mph. Hurricane Bertha is now moving more rapidly, at 22 mph to the northeast. This track is expected to continue with increasing speed as Bertha begins to lose tropical characteristics over the weekend. The current forecast path has Bertha approaching Iceland as an extratropical storm early next week.

Meanwhile, a couple other areas are being watched for possible tropical development. The thunderstorm activity off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina has continued to increase, and a reconnaissance flight is tentatively scheduled for tomorrow. The low pressure area now moving westward through the central Caribbean has not become any better organized, but a reconnaissance flight was sent there this afternoon. Both of these areas have the potential to become tropical depressions in the near future.

The Jamaica Meteorological Service issued a statement this afternoon warning of the possibility of flash flooding and gale force winds.

Image: Hurricane Bertha from International Space Station, via NASA.

Enhancing the Legacy

The Administration continues to enhance its legacy of denial and delay with the publication yesterday of an Environmental Pollution Agency report on the human effects of global warming. From the media:

• WaPo: Warming Is Major Threat To Humans, EPA Warns
• USAT: Feds: Climate change to cause 'irreversible' health risks
• LaTi: Global warming poses a health threat, EPA report says
• Reuters: Climate change puts U.S. way of life at risk - EPA
• AP: Warming health report: Poor, elderly to hurt most
• Deseret News: EPA report says climate change may impact Western states

Bertha Bears Down on Top Ten

As Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move away from land in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has pointed out that it could become one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical storms in history if it survives to the weekend. Extracted from the NHC historical database, here are the 10 all-time longest-lived storms (in calendar days) from depression through extratropical stage:

Year Days Storm
1899 33 NOT NAMED
1971 30 GINGER
1969 26 INGA
1926 23 NOT NAMED
1957 23 CARRIE
2000 23 ALBERTO
2002 23 KYLE
2004 23 IVAN
1893 21 NOT NAMED
1966 21 INEZ

Bertha originally became a tropical depression on July 3. The storm is now located about 450 miles east northeast of Bermuda. After moving southeastward for a while, it's now moving east at a faster rate of 12 mph. Maximum winds are around 60 mph, and little change in strength is expected.

Elsewhere, a low pressure area which has now moved westward into the southeastern Caribbean has shown increased thunderstorm activity, and an aircraft reconnaissance flight was scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

Closer to home, the stormy area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico yesterday has moved across Florida and now about 75 miles east of Jacksonville. It has a moderate chance to develop as it drifts slowly northward.

"Emission Accomplished"

Tom Toles salutes the Bush Administration's flawless record on climate change:

EPA Gaming the System: Priceless

Stephen Colbert congratulates the Environmental Pollution Agency on its market-based strategy for avoiding its legal responsibilities:

Bertha Barrels On: Day 14

Described by the National Hurricane Center as a "powerful system with a large wind field", Tropical Storm Bertha continued churning generally eastward in the Atlantic today. Maximum winds are about 70 mph, and the storm has now turned to the southeast at 5 mph from a position about 360 miles northeast of Bermuda. A couple more days of tropical storm status are likely.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain active for this early in the season. A tropical wave which is now about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands has become well organized, and a reconnaissance flight was sent out this afternoon to investigate. At 6 pm, the Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, which indicated that the system is not yet ready to be classified as a tropical depression, but it could become so in the near future.

Another stormy area, in the southwestern Caribbean, has shown signs of organization, and it could develop further before it moves into Central America tomorrow.

An area of disorganized storm activity over Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to develop, but it could bring much-needed drought relief to parts of the Southeast with some locally heavy rains.

Tropical Storm Bertha Sets New Record

Longest-lived Atlantic July Tropical Storm

6:45 Update: More historical data included.

The National Hurricane Center announced this afternoon that Tropical Storm Bertha has set the record for the longest time as a named tropical cyclone during July in the Atlantic. At 12½ days, Bertha has exceeded the 12¼ days for storm #2 in 1916.

Claudette in 1979 originated on July 15 and lasted until July 29, but it was a tropical storm for only 2 brief periods during that time. It did make landfall on the southeast Texas coast, where it caused torrential rains, including a U.S. 24-hour record of 42 inches at Alvin, Texas. The flooding made Claudette the 10th costliest tropical storm in U.S. history up to that time, with damages of $400 million.

Bertha 1996 was also a long-lived storm. It became a tropical storm on the morning of July 5 and was a hurricane from the 7th through the 12th, when it made landfall. It quickly became extratropical, but it retained tropical storm force winds for several more days.

The longest-lived pre-July storm appears to be the would-have-been "B" storm of 1934. It originated in the far western Caribbean on June 4, looped around Central America, the Yucatan, and the Gulf of Mexico, and made landfall as a hurricane on the coast of Louisiana. It then went up the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, turned east to pass almost directly over the Washington, DC area and went back off the New Jersey coast and over Long Island and Cape Cod. Including the extratopical phase, it lasted 17½ days.

Although conditions have been favorable for intensification, Bertha remains a tropical storm with maximum winds of about 70 mph. It continues to move away from Bermuda on a north northeast track at about 9 mph, leaving behind extensive power outages.

As for Cristobal wannabe, the area of thunderstorms 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become less organized during the day, and the likelihood of tropical depression development has decreased.

Bertha Bothers Bermuda Cristobal Wannabe Waiting in Wings

5 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Bertha has now passed by Bermuda and is located about 65 miles northeast of the island. The strongest winds, however, will be moving over the area in the next couple of hours. Maximum winds are 70 mph, and the storm is moving north at a slightly faster pace, about 9 mph.

3 pm Update: A reconnaissance flight has found near hurricane-force winds in a rainband to the southwest of the center of Tropical Storm Bertha. This band will be moving over Bermuda in the next couple of hours, so the Tropical Storm Warning for the island has been extended to a Hurricane Watch. Winds have gusted as high as 68 mph at the airport.

Tropical Storm Bertha, with maximum winds of 65 mph, is moving northward at 7 mph as of 11 am this morning. The center of the storm is about 60 miles east southeast of Bermuda, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. Winds at Wade International Airport are currently 31 mph, gusting to 46 mph. Gusts as high as 55 mph have been reported. Elsewhere on the island, winds in excess of 60 mph have been observed. Several airlines have cancelled departures today.

The tropical wave which is now about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming more organized, and it could become a tropical depression at any time in the next day or so. If it becomes named, it would be called Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Bertha Bogs Down, Nears Another Record

Hurricane Bertha has diminished both in strength and forward motion over the weekend. It's now a tropical storm with maximum winds of 65 mph. After some meandering, Tropical Storm Bertha is now drifting generally north northwest at about 3 mph. The 11 pm position is about 160 miles southeast of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. The storm's passage slightly to the east is likely to bring some much-needed rain; as much as 2-4" could fall from the outer bands of the storm.

Jeff Masters reports in his blog that Bertha's 6 days as a hurricane make it the fourth longest-lived July hurricane. As a named storm for 10 days so far, however, it is almost certain to break the 12-day record for longest-lived July named storm.

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave far out in the Atlantic, about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands, is under favorable conditions for development. It could easily become tropically depressed at any time in the next couple of days.

Bertha Strengthens Slightly, Heads Into Lazy Weekend

Based on Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance reports, the 5 pm advisory put Hurricane Bertha's maximum winds at 90 mph; no significant short-term change is expected. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Bermuda.

The Category 1 storm's forward speed is only 5 mph. It's headed north northwest from a position 270 miles southeast of Bermuda. A gradual northward turn is still expected, but weak steering currents could lead to considerable meandering in the coming days.

This Just In

A page A1 above-the-fold article in today's high-fiber edition of WaPo contains the startling news, "EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year". How shocking that a Republic-con administration of oil executives would take no action on CO₂! It took two staff reporters, plus two researchers, to figure this out? Where have you been the last eight years while this bunch of thugs has been giving the entire world the finger?

The EPA is releasing an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking at 1:30 today.

Hurricane Bertha Slows Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda

Hurricane Bertha remains a Category 1 storm today with maximum winds estimated at 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Bertha has slowed its forward speed to 6 mph, heading northwest from a position about 310 miles south southeast of Bermuda. The first reconnaissance flight is scheduled into the storm later today.

Clown in Chief

"Goodbye from the world's biggest polluter". Moron.
More comment at:
Wonkette
Rolling Stone

Weaker Hurricane Bertha Heading Northwestward

5 pm Update: Hurricane Bertha remains at Category 1, with maximum winds down slightly to 85 mph. It continues to move northwest at 10 mph from a position about 425 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bermuda remains within the large cone of uncertainty. The Small Craft Warning for Bermuda has been extended through Saturday. The forecast calls for conditions to "become increasingly unsettled this weekend as Bertha approaches."

After regaining Category 2 strength yesterday, Hurricane Bertha weakened back to Category 1 overnight. As of 11 am, maximum winds were 90 mph, and the storm was headed toward the northwest at 9 mph. It is now located a little less than 500 miles southeast of Bermuda, where a Small Craft Warning is in effect through Friday night. A gradual turn toward the north and slowdown in forward speed are still expected, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in the path and intensity, which could still strengthen in the next 24 hours.

Bertha Bounces Back

Hurricane Bertha has restrengthened this afternoon; it is now back up to Category 2 as of 5 pm, with max winds of 105 mph. Additional strengthening is expected, but with slow weakening after a couple of days. Movement is toward the northwest at 12 mph. A turn to the north is still forecast, but there is a large uncertainty in the future track.

Storm Chasing: Follow the Money

CNBC's Street Signs program this afternoon featured an interview with Stockpickr.com's James Altucher. He examined the performance of a wide range of stocks (S&P 1500) following the seven most costly hurricanes. He found the stocks of 50 companies which were up in all seven cases, but he recommends four of those in particular:

• Hill-Rom (HRC): hospital beds!
  
• Campbell Soup (CPB): non-perishable foods
  
• Toro (TTC): landscaping equipment
  
• Nucor (NUE): steel

As usual, invest at your own risk.

EPA Email-Gate Update

The WaPo article (cited below) on White House witness tampering is on page A1 of today's high-fiber edition.
DotEarth has a post on the subject this morning: Cheney’s Office and the Course of Climate Policy.

Hurricane Bertha Fluctuating, Still Category 1

After weakening somewhat overnight, Hurricane Bertha is still a minimal Category 1 storm today with peak winds of 75 mph. Some increase in intensity is forecast in the short term, with weakening thereafter. The current track is toward the west northwest at 12 mph, but a gradual turn to a more northerly direction, along with a slowdown in forward speed, is expected. There is a great deal of ambiguity for both the path and the intensity, especially beyond 72 hours; the "cone of uncertainty" has evolved into a rather large circle.

Ghost Writers, the Sequel

As reported (scroll down to "Political Science") at the time, the cunning linguists of the current administration performed some unnatural acts on the testimony last year of CDC director Julie Gerberding to Congress about the effects of global warming on health. The WaPo's political/environmental writer reported this afternoon that former Environmental Predation Agency official Jason Burnett has revealed that the linguist-in-chief was Vice Puppeteer President Cheney; it was his staff which ordered the changes. (Burnett is the same EPA official involved in the White House's sophomoric email antics.)

If you think our verbiage is harsh, get a load of the literally hundreds of virtual pitchforks being thrown by the electronic masses in the Comments section of the online version of the article.

More on the subject is available at:

• Gristmill: Cheney reaction
  
• Hill Heat: Office of Vice President Censored Testimony on Global Warming Endangerment

Hurricane Bertha Weakens to Category 1

11 pm Update: Bertha is still Category 1, maximum winds of 80 mph. A gradual turn to the north is expected, but the forecast path has shifted slightly to the west.

Hurricane Bertha weakened further today and is now Category 1 with maximum winds of 85 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph, and a gradual turn to a more northerly direction is expected. As the storm weakens further, it should be a tropical storm as it moves southeast of Bermuda.

Hurricane Bertha Weakens; Still Category 2

Hurricane Bertha maintained Category 3 strength overnight, but weakened this morning to Category 2. At 11 am, maximum winds were 105 mph. More weakening is expected in the next 24 hours. The storm's track is now more toward the northwest, and the forecast has shifted the path further to the east of Bermuda.

Bodacious Bertha Category 3

Update (11 pm):Hurricane Bertha has increased to maximum winds of 120 mph as of the latest advisory. It continues to move toward the west northwest at 12 mph, but a gradual turn toward the northwest and north is still expected.

Correction (8:40 pm): The statistics on early season major hurricanes from the National Hurricane Center shown below apparently included only the Saffir-Simpson scale at landfall, so there were other occurrences, as well (for example, Emily became Category 3 on July 15, 2005). A more correct description of the list below would be: "All storms originating before August 1 which made landfall as Category 3 or higher since 1851." Clearly, that does not apply, at least yet, to the current case.

As of 5 pm, Hurricane Bertha is now classified as a major hurricane, Category 3, with winds up to 115 mph. It is continuing toward the west northwest at a decreased speed of 12 mph. A gradual turn toward a more northerly track is expected. Some fluctuation in intensity is likely in the next couple of days.

Except for Dennis in 2005, this is the first July Category 3 storm since Allen in 1980 and Celia in 1970, but these storms each formed originally on July 31. The previous earliest Category 3 or higher was Audrey in 1957.

All storms originating before August 1 reaching Category 3 since 1851 (from National Hurricane Center):
Date ---- NAME ---------- Saffir-Simpson scale
6 04 1934 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
6 25 1957 AUDREY . . . . .SSS=4
6 29 1916 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 04 2005 DENNIS . . . . .SSS=3
7 13 1909 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 27 1936 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 31 1970 CELIA . . . . . SSS=3
7 31 1980 ALLEN . . . . . SSS=3

"NBC Storms Weather Channel"

As widely reported in the press this morning, NBC Universal is acquiring The Weather Channel in a joint venture with two private equity firms:

• NYTi: Weather Channel Is Sold to NBC and Equity Firms
  
• Business Week: NBC Universal Clinches Deal to Buy Weather Channel
  
• WSJ: NBC-Led Group Will Buy The Weather Channel
  
• Variety: NBC storms Weather Channel
  
• Hollywood Reporter: Weather deal brightens NBC forecast
  
• Bloomberg: NBC Universal, Bain, Blackstone Buy Weather Channel
  
• Forbes: Weather Channel Under NBCU's Umbrella
  
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution: NBC buying Weather Channel
  
• TheStreet.com: NBC Universal to Buy Weather Channel
  
• BBC: NBC agrees Weather Channel deal
  
• WaPo: Weather Channel Sold to NBCU

The reported price of $3.5 billion is considerably less than originally suggested. Jeff Zucker, president of NBC Universal, appeared in a 15-minute segment of CNBC's Squawk Box this morning to discuss the deal. CNBC's Media Money honey comments on the deal in her blog, with video: NBC And Why It's Paying $3.5 Billion For The Weather Channel.

For the snarky view, see Gawker, including a link to Chris Farley as El Niño:

Bertha Burgeoning: First Hurricane of 2008

At 5 am this morning, Tropical Storm Bertha became the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2008 season. It continues to exceed strength expectations with maximum winds increasing to 90 mph as of 11 am. It could reach Category 2 today or tonight. The track remains west northwest, but the forward speed has lowered to 15 mph.

Hurricane Bertha track from IBISEYE and Google Maps

Bertha Boogying Briskly; Some Strengthening Seen

Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened today, with maximum winds now 60 mph. It continues to move west northwestward at a brisk pace, about 20 mph. The track should turn more northerly in the next couple of days, but there is still some disagreement among the models on the pace of that turn. Threats to land are still too early to determine, but the most likely target at this point, if any, would be Bermuda.

Bertha Gradually Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bertha is moving more westward than originally forecast and gradually strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are now 50 mph, and little change in strength is expected today, but it is forecast to become a minimal hurricane as it moves north of the Lesser Antilles in a few days.

Tropical Storm Bertha track from IBISEYE.

2008 Hurricane Season Sets Record: Tropical Storm Bertha

How's that for a dramatic headline? The facts are somewhat less apocalyptic, but impressive anyway. Jeff Masters' Wunderblog notes that Bertha, which formed this morning near the Cape Verde islands at longitude 25W, is the first tropical storm in history to have developed so far east this early in the season. In fact, it's the easternmost storm to have formed in the entire month of July. Complete records covering the eastern Atlantic go only as far back as 1967 with the beginning of satellite coverage, however.

Bertha is currently a minimal tropical storm with maximum winds of 40 mph. Gradual strenthening is expected as it moves toward the west northwest during the next couple of days.

Image from Google Earth

Energy Watch: Trimming the Hedges

Here's where we put the "capital" in CapitalClimate. Energy prices have been soaring well enough on their own lately (past $140 a barrel for oil), but what if tropical storm disruptions or an exceptionally cold winter put more upward pressure on prices? Despite all the complaining over heat and humidity around this time of year in the Nation's Capital region, the typical household in the area spends more on heating than cooling. The Big Boys can hedge by trading in the futures markets, but the prices there are heavily influenced by speculation.

Money Magazine's Jason Zweig, appearing recently on the Nightly Business Report, suggested a strategy that could be practical for the individual homeowner. His plan works like this: Take an amount roughly equal to your total seasonal heating bill and use it to buy shares in an exchange-traded fund (ETF) which is based on the cost of your heating fuel. (An ETF is like a mutual fund, but instead of being priced once a day at the close of the market, shares are traded continuously on a stock exchange.)

For natural gas, Zweig recommends the United States Natural Gas Fund (ticker symbol UNG), which began trading in 2007. A more recent market entrant is the U.S. Heating Oil Fund (UHN), which was launched a few months ago. Also launched recently is another hedge against growing household energy costs, the U.S. Gasoline Fund (UGA).

Expenses involved in this strategy include management fees of about 0.6-0.8% and commissions to buy and sell (now around $10 or less per transaction at many discount brokers). In the event of a gain, profits are subject to taxes at ordinary income rates for shares held less than a year and capital gains rates of 15% or less for longer holding periods. If the value goes down, you can use the money saved on your heating bill to hedge against future price increases. If you sell the shares at a loss, then the loss amount can offset gains from other investments or be deducted from other income up to $3000.

Image: 3-month chart of UNG from BigCharts.com, via Fidelity Investments. Click to enlarge.

"There Will Be Flood"

Tonight's Daily Show is a rerun of the June 18 episode, including the report, "There Will be Flood: The media attempts to show the Midwest flood's magnitude by breaking out the human dipsticks." The show will be repeated during the day on Tuesday.



Also included is "Wet Hot American Bummer", in which Jason Jones and Wyatt Cenac "report" from Quincy, Illinois.