Friday, July 2, 2010

More June Monthly Heat Records Set
All-Time Warmest Month in Miami

July 9 Update: This was also the warmest June on record at Norfolk, Virginia. The average temperature of 80.3° broke the old record of 80.1° in 1943.

July 3 Update: The June heat records keep rolling in, from the Mid Atlantic through the Southeast:

New Jersey
The Atlantic City June average temperature of 75.8° broke the old record of 74.9° set in 2008. The number of days with 90° or higher temperatures was 14, which broke the June record of 11 in 1991. Atlantic City records began in 1874.

The June average temperature of 75.4° in Trenton was the second warmest on record, just 0.1° less than the 75.5° in 1943. The 10 days with temperatures of at least 90° was just one less than the record in 1925 and 1943. Trenton records began in 1893.

Pennsylvania
The average temperature of 78.2° in Philadelphia broke the old record of 78.0° in 1925 and 1994. The 15 days with temperatures of at least 90° tied the record set in 1943. Philadelphia records began in 1872.

South Carolina
June 2010 was the warmest on record at the Charleston airport (83.4°) and the third warmest in downtown Charleston (83.3°). At the airport, 25 days were at 90° or above, including the last 21 consecutive days of the month. Downtown temperatures were 90° or above on 14 days. Airport observations date back to 1938, and downtown records began in 1870.

The Greenville-Spartanburg average of 80.8° in June was the second warmest on record, behind the 82.2° in 1952. This was only the 4th time since records began in 1893 that temperatures there have averaged 80° or higher in June.

The average temperature of 83.7° at Columbia tied the record of June 1952. Columbia records began in 1887.

Georgia
June temperatures were the second warmest on record at Savannah. The average of 83.6° was tied with June 1952. There were 25 days with temperatures of 90° or above, including 20 consecutive days from the 10th through the 29th. Savannah records began in 1870.

Florida
The June average temperature of 83.8° at Tallahassee was tied with 1952 as the second warmest June on record. There were 25 days with temperatures of 90° or above.

The second warmest June at Tampa (84.8° vs. 85.5° in 1998) combined with the 4th warmest May (80.9°) to produce the warmest May-June in history (82.8° vs. the old record of 82.3° in 1998). Tampa records began in 1890.

St. Petersburg had its warmest June (86.5° vs. 84.9° in 1998) following its warmest May (82.0° vs. 81.3° in 1995) to produce its warmest May-June by a wide margin (84.2° vs. 82.0° in 1935). St. Petersburg records began in 1914.

The June average of 84.8° at Lakeland broke the record of 84.5° in 1998. This combined with the 4th warmest May (80.6°) to result in the warmest May-June on record (82.7° vs. 82.5° in 1995). Lakeland records began in 1915.

Sarasota combined its second warmest June (83.5° vs. 83.9° in 1998) with its 3rd warmest May (79.6°) for its record warmest May-June (81.5° vs. 81.2° in 1998). Sarasota records began in 1911.

Ft. Myers had its second warmest June (85.3° vs. 85.9° in 1981) and its second warmest May (81.2° vs. 82.0° in 1995). This resulted in its record warmest May-June (83.2° vs. 82.5° in 1981). Records began at Ft. Myers in 1902.

Key West's average temperature of 85.9° broke the old June record of 85.4° set in 1886. There were 14 daily records broken during the month; 13 of those were record warm minimum temperatures. Key West records began in 1871.

Evening Update: Here are more June monthly high temperature records:

North Carolina
Raleigh average of 81.5° broke 2008 record of 80.7°.
Remainder of top 5 June temperatures since 1887:

80.4 degrees in June 1943
80.0 degrees in June 1952
79.2 degrees in June 1939

There were 22 days with temperatures of 90° or higher, second only to June 1952 with 23 (normal is 10).

Greensboro average of 79.8° broke 1952 record of 79.0°.
Remainder of top 5 June temperatures since 1928:

78.8 degrees in June 2008
78.2 degrees in June 1943
77.8 degrees in June 1981

There were 17 days with max temperatures of 90° or higher, second only to June 1944 and 1952 with 20 (normal is 8).

Original post:
Washington, DC was far from alone in experiencing record heat for the month of June.

Virginia
In Richmond, the monthly average of 81.1° was 7.6° above normal and nearly 2° above the old record of 79.2° in 1943. The difference between the new and old records is greater than the difference between the old record and the current 11th warmest June. This June was warm enough to be tied with the 10th warmest July. The last 3 consecutive months have now been in the top 10: April (4th warmest), May (8th warmest), and June (top warmest). The spring average (March/April/May) was also the warmest on record. Richmond temperature records began in 1880.

Florida
The National Weather Service reports that 3 out of the 4 primary climate reporting stations in south Florida (Miami, Ft. Lauderdale, and Naples) had their warmest June on record. In Miami, the average of 85.6° was the warmest for any calendar month in history. The low temperature failed to go below 80° for 13 days in June, breaking the old record of 12 in 1998. The previous month was also the warmest May on record.

Ft. Lauderdale's average of 84.9° was a new June record, and the 15 days with lows of 80° or higher broke the old record of 12 in 2008.

The Naples average of 84.6° broke the old record from 1944 by 0.5°.

The Palm Beach average of 84.4° was the second warmest June, missing the 1998 record by only 0.1°. The 10 days with lows of 80° or above broke the old record of 8 in 1981.

Central North Carolina also set June records; details later.

Image (click to enlarge): Total number of daily high and low temperature records set in the U.S. for spring 2010 (March-April-May) and June 2010, data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose. Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.

Monday, June 28, 2010

New Daily Record Heat Extends Washington June Temperature Record

June 30, Midnight Update: The low of 67° has held through midnight, so the final record-breaking June average is 80.6°.

June 30, Late PM Update: The June 30 high is in at 81°. If the low of 67° holds, the month goes into the books at a record-blasting average of 80.6° (charts to be updated when final figures available).

With today's high above 80°, there were only 3 days this month which failed to reach at least 80°. This is the smallest number for June since 1996.

Despite the pre-canned assertion elsewhere that "highs below 80 seem likely in many spots", Washington Dulles and Baltimore also reached 80° or above for the day, with Baltimore Inner Harbor at 84°.

Regionally, even Martinsburg WV (80°) and Hagerstown MD (84°) achieved the Big Eight-Oh-Plus. In fact, as of 5 pm, these additional secondary reporting stations in Maryland and Virginia were all above 80°: Winchester, Frederick, Leesburg, Staunton, Aberdeen, Culpeper, Blackskburg, Fredericksburg.

June 30, PM Update: Following yesterday's high of 92° and low of 78°, the June monthly average reached 80.8°. Today's high so far of 78° and low of 67° virtually assure that the final June average will be at least 80.5°, which is a remarkable 1.1° above the old record.

The histogram chart of all June average temperatures from 1871 through 2010 shows how far an outlier this month has been. Each bar represents the number of times the June average was in a given 0.5° range. The point at the far right of the chart shows the 2010 average in the 80.5°-81° bucket. The 2010 value is an impressive 2.8 standard deviations above the overall average.

June 30, 1 AM Update: The temperature is 78° at 1 am, so the 80° low won't hold, but it didn't miss by much.

June 29, Late PM Update: Despite a north to northwesterly breeze, the temperature is still holding at 90° as of 7 pm.

June 29, PM Update: The final high and low for the 28th were 97° and 73°, respectively. As of 2 pm, today has already reached 92°. This is the 18th day with 90°+ this month, which is apparently a new June record. The morning low was 80°, but that is likely to be surpassed by midnight (technically, 1 am EDT).

The monthly average through yesterday is 80.6°. That will increase if the low later today is anywhere above 70°, but it will go down a little with lower temperatures tomorrow.

June 28, Midnight Update: Here are some more June 2010 heat records:
  • Richmond has reached 102° 3 times this month; previously 102° had been reached no more than once in June
  • Philadelphia's monthly average to date is within 0.1° of the June record high
  • Philadelphia's 14 days with 90°+ is within 1 of the June record
  • Atlantic City's 13 days with 90°+ exceeds the June record by 2
June 28, 6:30 PM Update: Added records for Richmond, Elizabeth City NC, and Wallops Island VA below.

June 28, 5:30 PM Update: The high was 97° at 1:27 pm; the low is being reported as 70°, but this is inconsistent with the time shown of 8:56 am. The high was 3° short of the daily record, but Baltimore set a record of 99° (old record 98° in 1969). This is now the 3rd daily high set this month in Baltimore, tying the 3 each in June 1925 and 1994. Baltimore has also tied a record high a record high on the 23rd and a record high minimum on the 24th.

Richmond blew away its 1959 record by 3° with a high of 102°. Richmond records began in 1871. Elizabeth City NC tied a record at 97°. Wallops Island VA, where records only began in 1963, smashed the 2001 record of 94° with a high of 98°.

This is the 17th day of 90° or higher temperatures at Washington this month, which reportedly ties the June record set in 1943 and 1994. An expected high in the low 90s tomorrow would break the record. There have also been 7 days of 95° or higher; there were only 5 days 95°+ in 1994 and 3 in 1943. In 1981, the previous 3rd warmest June, there were 9 days of 90°+ and 4 of 95°+.

June 28, 4 PM Update: The Washington temperature dipped at least as low as 73° during the thunderstorm. If that remains the low for the day, the June average to date will be 80.6°.

June 28, 2:30 PM Update: The temperature at Dulles has already dropped in a heavy thunderstorm to 79° from a high of 94°. Meanwhile, the temperature at Washington National rose to at least equal the high of 96° before the storm.

June 28 PM Update: Strong thunderstorms moving into the area will drop the temperature, but the high so far today is 96° as of 2 pm. The low so far of 81° would break the daily record for high minimum, although it's likely to be breached. Assuming the low holds, however, the monthly average to date would rise to an even 80.75°.

Original post:
A new daily record high temperature of 99° for June 27 at Washington, DC has further extended the June monthly average into record heat territory. The previous record for the date was 98° in 1980.

With the morning low of 75°, the June average to date is now 80.5°, over 1° above the old record of 79.4° in 1994. This is a greater margin than the difference between June 1994 and the current 3rd place holder, June 1981. Although a cool-down is likely by Wednesday, this month is now virtually assured to clinch the record with the first June in history to average above 80°.

There have now been 16 days this June with highs of 90° or above. With a forecast high in the mid 90s, Monday will likely tie June 1994's count of 90°+ days.

The high of 100° at Baltimore also set a record, exceeding the 99° in 1952. Richmond's high of 102° exceeded the old record of 100° in 1952.

For earlier history of this month's record temperatures, see here.

Images (click to enlarge): Distribution of Washington, DC June average temperatures from 1871 to 2010; June 2010 daily temperatures vs. average and record; June 2010 average temperature vs. previous 10 warmest Junes, June and July monthly averages; CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data, background images from Kevin Ambrose

Friday, June 25, 2010

First 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Depression Forms
Possible Threat to Gulf of Mexico

The tropical wave which has been moving westward across the Caribbean has been declared a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center as of 6 pm EDT. If it develops further, it will become Tropical Storm Alex. This could happen as early as tonight or Saturday.

The forecast track brings the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Based on the expected track, there is at least a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds nearly anywhere in the western half of the Gulf in the next 5 days.

Summary information at 6 pm:
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W

ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Image (click to enlarge): Probability of tropical storm winds for the 5 days beginning 2 pm EDT, June 25, 2010, from National Hurricane Center

Earlier this afternoon, CNBC reviewed the possible impacts of a tropical storm on the BP oil gusher cleanup and oil markets. "The timing couldn't be worse."




Thursday, June 24, 2010

Triple-Digit Heat Smashes Washington DC, Mid Atlantic Temperature Records

See here for more Washington DC weather records.

See here for June 27 update.


June 24 Update: Here are the preliminary temperature record counts for the entire U.S. on June 24:
Warmest max temperature 36
Coldest min temperature 1
1 AM Update: It's not official, but the new record high minimum temperature of 78° appears to have held.

Evening Update: More record reports from major reporting locations (previous records in parentheses):
Richmond            102 (100, 1948)
Wallops Island VA 99 (92, 2002/1997)
New Bern NC 97 (96, 1960)
Atlantic City 99 (96, 1966)
Georgetown DE 97 (96, 1988)
Note that the Atlantic City record was broken by 3° in an observation history which extends back to 1874.

It's still 90° in Washington at 7 pm.

Late PM Update: The preliminary highs reported by the National Weather Service:
Washington National 100 @ 2:32 PM
Washington Dulles 97 @ 1:48 PM
Baltimore BWI 100 @ 1:54 PM
All of them are new records by 2° each. The previous Baltimore record had occurred 3 times in the past: 1966, 1908, 1894.

The Washington morning low of 78°, if it holds through midnight (1 am EDT), would also be a new record high minimum, beating the old record of 77° which has stood since 1874. Given the lack of rainfall so far, that seems like a distinct possibility. The 1874 record is the oldest of only 3 remaining 19th century daily high minimum records for June. A daily high minimum record (76°) has already been set this month on the 21st.

Here are some other high temperature records reported by the National Weather Service so far today (previous records in parentheses):
Raleigh            99 (tie, 1996)
Elizabeth City NC 99 (97, 1981)
Wilmington NC 98 (97, 1950)
Islip NY 93 (91, 2003)
Kennedy Airport NY 97 (95, 1966)
LaGuardia Airpt NY 95 (93, 2003)
PM Update: 3 pm temperatures:
Washington National  98
Washington Dulles 95
Baltimore BWI 100
Original post:
The official Washington DC temperature of 99° at 2 pm today has already broken the heat record for June 24 set in 1894 as readings continue to climb. That record was one of only 3 remaining June high temperature records from the 19th century, including the all-time June daily high of 102° on June 9, 1874. (By contrast, 5 daily low temperature records remain from the 19th century. Only one June daily low temperature record has been set since 1979, and that was 18 years ago, on June 22, 1992.)

Other temperatures around the region include:
Baltimore (BWI)   100 (old record 98, 1966)
Richmond 101 (old record 100, 1948)
Petersburg VA 100
Williamsburg VA 102
Patuxent River MD 100
Fredericksburg VA 99
Frederick MD 99
Leesburg VA 99
Ocean City MD 98

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Washington Approaches Ties Exceeds All-Time June Temperature Record

June 25 Update: Yesterday's record high of 100° and record high minimum of 78° bring the month-to-date average up to 79.9°, 6.1° above average and half a degree above the old June record.

June 23 Evening Update: Today's preliminary high temperature was 97°, giving a departure from average of +10°.

June 23 Late PM Update: The 5 pm temperature of 96° has pushed the daily average to at least 85° and the month-to-date to 79.5°, assuming the morning low holds through midnight. This exceeds by 0.1° the average for the record hottest June in 1994. It also exceeds the average July temperature of 79.2°. (Chart updated with current data.)

The record warm June temperatures extend at least as far south as Richmond, where the monthly average to date of 80° exceeds the record of 79.2° in 1943.

June 23 PM Update: With a 1 pm temperature reaching 94° following a morning low of 74°, the daily average so far today of 84° pushes the June mean to at least 79.4°, tying the June record in 1994.

This is now the 5th consecutive 90°+ day and the 12th so far this month.

Original post:
Washington's high temperature of 96° on Tuesday was well short of the record for June 22 of 101° in 1988, but the day's average of 85° was 9° above the normal for the date. This raised the monthly average so far by 0.3° to 79.3°, just 0.1° below the all-time June record set in 1994 and 0.5° above the second-warmest June in 1943. The long-term average temperature for June is 74.5°.

There have now been 11 days in June with high temperatures of 90° or above, including the last 4 consecutive days. Since the average number for the entire month of June is 7.4, this is a little more than double the normal ratio of 90°+ days.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Dozens Dead, Hundreds Missing in Brazil Floods

June 22 Update: The New Zealand Met Service blog reports phenomenal rains in the early part of June (tip of the wind vane to Hot Topic).

Original post:
The Northern Hemisphere is not unique in experiencing recent heavy flooding. Dozens are known dead, hundreds are missing, and perhaps as many as 100,000 are homeless following several days of torrential rainfall, as much as 14", in northeastern Brazil. Flooding is reported to have destroyed entire villages in the states of Alagoas and Pernambuco.
Video from Associated Press:

First Hurricane of 2010 Reaches Category 2 Strength
Tropical Wave Has 50% Potential For Development

June 22 Update: The Caribbean tropical wave has not become better organized today, so the chances of development in the next 48 hours have been reduced to 20%. However, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for slow development as it continues to move westward.

Original post:
Celia, which became the first hurricane of the 2010 Eastern Pacific season early Sunday afternoon, has reached Category 2 strength as of 8 pm EDT today. The storm is centered a little over 500 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It is moving west at about 8 mph. Although a more northerly track is expected later in the week, Celia is likely to remain well offshore.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Basin, a strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean is now given a 50% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours. If a storm does develop, it has the potential of eventually moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Image (click to enlarge): Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook as of 8:15 pm EDT, June 21, from National Hurricane Center

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.