NewsHour Features Greenland Ice Core Report

Tonight's PBS NewsHour features a report on Greenland ice core analysis:

In July of 2009, Climate Central senior research scientist Heidi Cullen traveled to Greenland with a production team from StormCenter Communications to visit the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling Project, or NEEM. Scientists from 14 nations gather together each summer in northern Greenland, where they work to drill a core of solid ice, looking into the past for clues to future climate change.

The NEEM scientists are focused on a period known as the Eemian, which began about 130,000 years ago and lasted about 10,000 years. During the Eemian, temperatures were between 5 and 9 degrees F warmer than today, and global sea level was 13 to 20 feet higher. Under many climate change scenarios, global temperatures are projected to warm a similar amount this century, so understanding the climate of the Eemian could teach us more about the potential effects of warming today.

Means, Extremes, and Hype-ocracy

October 21 Update:
If the term "weather weenie forum" seems a bit harsh, consider the responses when it was pointed out that the original claim was incomplete, misleading, and therefore possibly subject to misuse. First, the comment posted in the forum:

Not strictly correct as stated:
Means, Extremes, and Hype-ocracy [link to this original post]

Some of the responses:

Nobody implied anything about global warming with the stats....Paranoid much, Steve?

He'll get to it in a minute as soon as his dial-up starts working again

:lol:
Who the Hell are you?

I vote capital punishment for capitol climate. :bike:

He's not a big fan when you question him about his beliefs.

Original post:
Weather geeks love their numbers, and to paraphrase Dr. Freud, "Sometimes a stat is just a stat." With the political polarization of the global warming issue, however, things can sometimes get a little out of hand. As noted here previously, a recent remarkably dank spell has led to several record low maximum temperatures here in the National Capital region, including 2 successive records on Friday and Saturday (October 16 and 17).

Quoting a weather weeenie forum, the earnest young lads at the WaPo's local weather blog have overstated the case: "This was the first time DCA has had back-to-back record low highs in October since 1891." Undoubtedly, this has already made it to the climate deniosphere in some such form as, "WaPo reports global cooling back to 1891 levels." Unfortunately, as is usually the case, the more accurate statement is a lot less sexy: "Of the currently existing record low maximums at Washington, DC for October, the only others on consecutive days were in 1891."

The significant point about extreme records is that they are cumulative. It's a lot easier to set records in the early years because there are fewer previous values to exceed. Therefore, records should become less frequent as time goes by. That means that the 2 consecutive records this year are significant, but not as much as the quote would indicate. A couple of minutes with Excel™, the Swiss Army Knife™ of Data Analysis shows at least one contradictory example nearly 50 years more recently. Consider the record low max of 42° for tomorrow, October 20. It was set in 1940. The current record for today is 45° in 1972. What was the second lowest? It was 46° in 1940, so that was the previous record, and back-to-back records were set in 1940 on the 19th and 20th. There was also at least a third record set in 1940, on the 16th (the one that was broken on Friday).

On the other hand, the October average to date (through the 18th) in 1940 was 59.9°, 1.8° above the average so far this year of 58.1°. Even with declining averages in the next couple of weeks, that's still a long way, though, from the record cold October of 50.7° in 1876 or the 52° tie in 1907, 1917, and 1925.

Besides being tied for the second coldest October, 1925 is also the currently reigning champ for record low maximums; it holds 4 daily records on the 10th, 22nd, 29th, and 31st. Although the daily data are not readily available that far back, those records on the 29th and 31st suggest strongly that 1925 set a third consecutive record on the 30th as well. Interestingly, that month was much more extreme on the high side than the low side, since no currently existing record daily low minimums were set in October that year.

Record Cool Mid Atlantic Maximums

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold

Midnight Update: National appears to have held at 45° and Dulles at 44° through midnight.

October 16 Update:
Nationwide, the total number of new or tied daily temperature records reported so far in October by the National Climatic Data Center:
Highest maximum: 573
Lowest minimum: 1,507

The preliminary high today at Washington National of 45° is 23° below average. If it holds through this evening, it will break the old record low maximum record of 51° set in 1940. This is one of the last 3 dates in the remaining portion of the year with record cool highs above 50°. The monthly record low maximum is 40° on the 23rd.

The high of 44° at Washington Dulles will also most likely break the record of
53° set in 1974.

Another record report for today:

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT SALISBURY WAS 53 DEGREES TODAY. THIS   
ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 16...  
BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1937 

Additional reports for October 15:

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN ROANOKE VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 48   
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR   
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 53 DEGREES SET IN 2002.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 47   
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR   
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 2002.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN DANVILLE VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 51   
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR   
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 2002.  
  
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN BLACKSBURG VIRGINIA ON OCT 15TH WAS ONLY 46   
DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR   
THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 52 DEGREES SET IN 1977.  

A RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURE OF 55 DEGREES WAS SET AT RALEIGH-DURHAM   
INTL AIRPORT NC TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 57 SET IN 1945.  

A RECORD LO-MAX TEMPERATURE OF 53 DEGREES WAS OBSERVED AT PIEDMONT TRIAD INTL   
AIRPORT NC TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 53 SET IN 2002.   

Original post:
A cold rain contributed to record low maximum temperatures in the Mid Atlantic region on Thursday (October 15):

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT RICHMOND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 54   
DEGREES TODAY. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE   
FOR OCTOBER 15...BREAKING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 56 DEGREES SET   
BACK IN 1939.  

A statement has not yet been issued by the National Weather Service, but the high of 49° at Washington Dulles was also a record, easily beating the 55° in 1978.

September 2009 Global Climate Update: Second Warmest on Record

Click here for other seasonal weather analyses

Just in time for Blog Action Day's focus on climate, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center earlier this afternoon released its preliminary analysis of global climate for September 2009. The combined land and sea surface temperature was the second warmest September on record, 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th Century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F). The September average was only 0.04°C (0.07°F) below the 2005 record. This is now the 33rd consecutive September since 1976 with an above-average temperature.

The land surface temperature was also the second warmest for September, and the sea surface average was tied with 2004 as the fifth warmest. Warm ocean temperatures were widespread, with the Southern Ocean near Antarctica and the Gulf of Alaska the major exceptions. A weak El Niño persisted across the tropical Pacific. For the year to date, the combined land and sea average is the sixth-warmest January to September period on record.

Regionally, Canada, Europe, the northern and western contiguous U.S., eastern Brazil, and most of Asia and Australia were warmer than average. The warmest departures from average occurred in Canada, the northern and western contiguous U.S., western Russia, and parts of Australia, where temperature anomalies ranged from 3-5°C (5-9°F) above the 1961-1990 average. For the contiguous 48 states, the U.S. average was the 32nd warmest on record. Temperatures were particularly warm in the West, where the region as a whole, as well as the states of California and Nevada, had their warmest September on record.

Images (click to enlarge): September 2009 global temperature departures from average, historical departures since 1880, and U.S. statewide temperature ranks for September; from NOAA/National Climatic Data Center

NOAA's 2009-2010 Winter Outlook: El Nino Rules

See here for other seasonal forecasts, including the current winter energy forecast.

In honor of Blog Action Day, here's a view of an effect which has a shorter time scale than climate, seasonal weather:

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center this morning issued its outlook for winter 2009-10 (December-January-February) in the U.S. It calls for a strengthening El Niño in the central and eastern tropical Pacific to dominate weather patterns for much of the country. The relatively warm Pacific water temperatures are expected to affect tropical rainfall distribution and in turn influence the strength and location of the storm track over North America.

The temperature forecast includes warmer than average temperatures over much of the West and central and northern Midwest. The best chance (over 40%) of warmer-than-average temperatures is from the northern Rockies eastward to Minnesota and as far south as Colorado and Nebraska. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than average from southern Texas northeastward to the Mid Atlantic area, including the Southeast. The Washington, DC region is on the borderline between the areas for over 33% chance (Maryland) and over 40% chance (most of Virginia) of cooler than average temperatures. The highest probability (over 40%) of cool temperatures is in the Southeast, from Virginia southward to Florida and westward along the Gulf Coast.

Precipitation is expected to be heavier than average along the central and southern West Coast eastward along the southern border and Gulf Coast through Florida. The wettest areas are likely to be most of California, central and southern Texas, and Florida. The driest areas relative to average are predicted to be the Pacific Northwest eastward across the northern Rockies and also from the northern Gulf States northeastward through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the eastern Great Lakes.

Unlike the hype-casts promoted by certain commercial forecast services and media, the NOAA forecast recognizes the futility of predicting snowfall at seasonal time scales:

This seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit or total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.

Images (click to enlarge): U.S. winter 2009-2010 temperature and precipitation outlook and most recent Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) departures from average, from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA

Record Cold and Snow in Upper Midwest

Image (click to enlarge): High temperatures for October 12, from Unisys

For other record temperature posts, see:
Record Heat
Record Cold

An early October outbreak of Arctic air has brought some daily cold temperature and snow records to the upper Midwest. Yesterday (October 12):

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDED ON OCTOBER 12TH AT THE ROCHESTER   
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 35 DEGREES. THIS IS THE COLDEST MAXIMUM   
TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED FOR THAT DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 36   
DEGREES WHICH HAD BEEN SET IN 2006.  

On Saturday (October 10):

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AT HECTOR FIELD IN FARGO FOR SATURDAY THE 10TH OF OCTOBER 
SET A NEW RECORD LOW MAXIMUM. 
THE HIGH OF 35 DEGREES SETS A NEW LOWEST MAXIMUM FOR THE   
DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 36 DEGREES SET IN 1935.  
  
DESPITE THE COLD WEATHER REGION WIDE...NEITHER OF THE GRAND FORKS   
SITES SET NEW LOW MAXIMUM RECORDS. THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT HIGH OF   
37 WAS 1 DEGREE ABOVE THE OCTOBER 10 RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 36 SET IN   
1959. AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH DAKOTA/NWS CLIMATE SITE THE HIGH OF   
35 WAS 2 DEGREES ABOVE THE OCTOBER 10 RECORD OF 33 SET IN 1919.  

A daily snowfall record was set on Saturday (October 10):

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 1.1 INCHES WAS SET AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN   
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF A TRACE SET IN 2006.  

On October 12:

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 2.5 INCHES WAS SET AT THE MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL  
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN THE TWIN CITIES MN TODAY...OCTOBER 12 2009.  
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.0 INCHES SET IN 1959.  

Other snowfall observations for October 12:

INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME  
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------  
  4.20   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           1100 AM  
                 U OF MN ST PAUL CAMPUS  
  4.00   4 SSE SILVER CREEK       MN  WRIGHT           0955 AM  
  4.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM  
  3.80   HAMBURG                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM  
  3.80   WACONIA                  MN  CARVER           0800 AM  
  3.60   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0334 PM  
  3.60   2 N CHASKA               MN  CARVER           1100 AM  
  3.50   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0213 PM  
  3.50   MAPLEWOOD                MN  RAMSEY           1100 AM  
  3.50   STILLWATER               MN  WASHINGTON       1100 AM  
  3.50   NORTH ST PAUL            MN  RAMSEY           1035 AM  
  3.50   CHASKA 2 NW              MN  CARVER           0800 AM  
  3.50   MELROSE                  MN  STEARNS          0800 AM  
  3.40   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM  
  3.20   LAKE ELMO 3 SE           MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM  
  3.10   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0800 AM  
  3.10   JIM FALLS                WI  CHIPPEWA         0300 PM   
  3.00   RIDGELAND                WI  DUNN             0250 PM  
  3.00   CHANHASSEN NWS           MN  CARVER           0115 PM  
  3.00   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         1150 AM  
  3.00   BLOOMER                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM    
  2.80   PRIOR LAKE               MN  SCOTT            1100 AM  
  2.70   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             0525 PM  
  2.60   1 SSW JORDAN             MN  SCOTT            0800 AM  
  2.60   HAMMOND                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM  
  2.50   MINNEAPOLIS              MN  HENNEPIN         0700 PM  
                 MEASURED AT MSP INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.  
  2.50   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0501 PM  
  2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0115 PM  
  2.50   GENEVA                   MN  FREEBORN         1248 PM  
  2.50   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0848 AM  
  2.50   WILLMAR                  MN  KANDIYOHI        0800 AM  
  2.50   ROCKFORD                 MN  HENNEPIN         0800 AM  
  2.50   BOYD                     MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0700 AM  
  2.30   FRIDLEY                  MN  ANOKA            0930 AM  
  2.30   DASSEL                   MN  MEEKER           0700 AM  
  2.30   BUFFALO 2 NE             MN  WRIGHT           0800 AM   
  2.30   STANLEY                  WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM   
  2.20   3 SE LAKE ELMO           MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM  
  2.20   RICE                     MN  BENTON           0800 AM  
  2.10   BONNIE GLEN 1 S          MN  CHISAGO          0800 AM  
  2.10   FOREST LAKE              MN  CHISAGO          0800 AM     
  2.00   GLENWOOD                 MN  POPE             0615 PM  
  2.00   4 E ELLSWORTH            WI  PIERCE           0544 PM  
  2.00   BRUCE                    WI  RUSK             0452 PM  
  2.00   RUSH CITY                MN  CHISAGO          0437 PM  
  2.00   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           1058 AM  
  2.00   PLYMOUTH                 MN  HENNEPIN         0715 AM  
  2.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0700 AM  
  2.00   FAIRMONT                 MN  MARTIN           0800 AM  
  2.00   WINNEBAGO                MN  FARIBAULT        0800 AM  
  2.00   ZUMBROTA                 MN  GOODHUE          0800 AM    
  1.80   MORRIS                   MN  STEVENS          0700 AM  
  1.80   ST CLOUD                 MN  STEARNS          0800 AM  
                 MEASURED AT STATE UNIVERSITY  
  1.60   ST CLOUD AIRPORT         MN  STEARNS          0115 PM  
  1.60   EAU CLAIRE               WI  EAU CLAIRE       0600 PM  
  1.60   LONG PRAIRIE             MN  TODD             0800 AM    
  1.50   WATERVILLE               MN  LE SUEUR         1000 AM  
  1.50   LITTLE FALLS             MN  MORRISON         0800 AM  
  1.50   KIMBALL                  MN  STEARNS          0800 AM  
  1.50   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0800 AM  
  1.50   1 SE HENDERSON           MN  LE SUEUR         0800 AM  
  1.50   GAYLORD                  MN  SIBLEY           0700 AM  
  1.50   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            0700 AM  
  1.50   HOLCOMBE                 WI  CHIPPEWA         0800 AM  
  1.20   CAMERON                  WI  BARRON           1130 AM  
  1.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0715 AM  

New Study Extends CO2 History Current Level Highest in 20 Million Years

A new study published in the latest issue (October 8) of Science Express, the online version of Science magazine, has extended the history of CO₂ levels back as far as 20 million years ago. The results indicate that current atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of about 385 parts per million (ppm) are equivalent to the highest in that entire interval.

Previous analyses of air bubbles trapped in ice cores had shown that CO₂ levels varied between 180 and 300 ppm over the last 800,000 years. The new technique uses the ratio of boron to calcium in the shells of fossil marine algae. It was calibrated by comparing its results to the measurements from ice cores. The new data show that during the Middle Miocene period from 14 to 20 million years ago, the CO₂ level was around 400 ppm, very close to today's readings. The measurements have an average error of 14 ppm.

During the Middle Miocene, global average temperatures were 5 to 10°F warmer than today. Sea levels at the time were about 75-120 feet higher than today, and there was no permanent ice cap in the Arctic.

Image (click to enlarge): Atmospheric CO₂ levels during the last 1000 years, the last 800,000 years, and 15-20 million years ago, compared with projections for the next century (from UCLA)