Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Inauguration Weather Update: Cold and Dry Still on the Program

January 20 is now moving out of the extended forecast range, but the latest 6-10 day forecast, for Jan. 20-24, continues to call for significantly colder than average temperatures. The probability of below-average readings in the Washington area is over 50%. Relatively dry conditions are also still likely, with a 40%+ chance of below-average precipitation.

Looking at the shorter term, Washington is moving into one of its most intense cold waves in several winters. The National Weather Service notes that Friday's expected high is near the 21° recorded on Jan. 10, 2004. The record low maximum for Jan. 16, however, was 15° in 1893.

Today's high was 36° at midnight, but daytime temperatures have remained below freezing. Some light snow was reported on radar, but little, if any, reached the ground.

A low pressure area moving eastward from the Ohio Valley will help usher in some even colder Arctic air for the next several days. High temperatures on Thursday will again have a hard time reaching the freezing mark, and highs on Friday will be in the low 20s. Temperatures are likely to remain below freezing through much of the weekend, but with some moderation late Sunday and Monday.

The outlook for Inauguration Day:
High: 33-37°
Low: 20-25°
Chance of precipitation: 20%

Click here for previous Inauguration Weather posts.

Images, top to bottom (click to enlarge):
CapitalClimate chart of January 2009 observed and forecast daily temperatures from NWS data, background image © Kevin Ambrose;
6-10 day temperature,
6-10 day precipitation forecasts from Climate Prediction Center/National Weather Service/NOAA;
GFS model output map for sea level pressure, 1000-500 mb thickness, and precipitation, 7 am, January 20, 2009, from NCEP/NWS/NOAA

No comments:

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.