Thursday, November 29, 2007

November Prepares to Leave Town Cool and Dry


Clear, mild. After some morning cloudiness, clear skies ahead of an approaching cold front have been accompanied by southerly winds and temperatures a bit milder than expected. Readings were at least 60° in most parts of the Washington metro area this afternoon, with highs of 61° at National, 60° at Dulles, and 58° at BWI.

Meanwhile, the long-term dryness continues as we roll on toward closing out the month with just over 50% below average rainfall. The fall season (Sept-Nov) is about 12% below, and the year to date is 17% under average. The yearly total is now running over 10" below last year's wet pace. The next precipitation, from a storm system emerging out of the Southwest toward the Great Lakes, is likely this weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, colder. Under clear skies tonight, lows will range from the low 30s in the city to the upper 20s in the 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be sunny and colder with highs 46-50°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Winter Outlooks

In case you missed it,'s winter outlook is here, and NOAA's final winter forecast update is here.

As a reminder that the rest of the Northern Hemisphere has winter around this time also, Japan's JMA is predicting "mostly average to milder-than-average winter weather", and the UK Met Office expects the winter to be "warmer than average, particularly in northern Europe, but cooler than last year". Environment Canada also produces an extensive set of seasonal forecasts. The current forecast (Nov-Dec-Jan) calls for over a 50% chance of below-normal temperatures over most of the northern half of the country.

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Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.