Science Beats Ideology by 3% U.S. Senate Narrowly Defeats Murkowski Murky Air Resolution

Within the last hour, by a 3-vote margin, the U.S. Senate has defeated a resolution by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska which attempted to override the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The vote, 47-53, was almost exclusively along party lines. The only 6 Democrats voting in the affirmative were:

• Bayh (D-IN)
• Landrieu (D-LA)
• Lincoln (D-AR)
• Nelson (D-NE)
• Pryor (D-AR)
• Rockefeller (D-WV)

Not one single Republican voted against.

Video of the debate and vote is at CSPAN.

In an editorial today, the WaPo said "attempting to strip the agency of its authority to regulate is premature."

FairGate: Climate Denialist Echosphere Exploits Hoax on Fourth-Grader

June 9 PM Update: The Beeville Bee-Picayune has concluded its exhaustive investigation and within the last hour or so has published the results:
It’s a hoax

Credit is given to an "overwhelming number of bloggers in the online science community." Regarding the possible origin of the fraud, the article says, "Some suspicions have arisen about Julisa’s father, Dr. [sic] J.R. Castillo, a local engineer and musician." The commentariat at Reddit have some more specific ideas.

Original post:
A story appearing online Saturday claimed that a Beeville, Texas fourth-grader, Julisa Castillo, had been "named junior division champion for the 2010 National Science Fair" for a project called "Disproving Global Warming". This was immediately spread uncritically around the climate-denial echosphere and featured prominently at climate swift-boat headquarters, Climate Depot. Currently, a Google search of "julisa castillo" + "science fair" yields 399 hits.

Unfortunately for the denial-mongers the entire story was a hoax. Blogger Michael Tobis of Only In It For the Gold yesterday drove the 3 hours to Beeville to investigate for himself. MT found that the letter purporting to be from an L.L. Slakey at the National Science Foundation announcing the award had several very troubling aspects (details here). Furthermore, the National Science Foundation does not sponsor a "National Science Fair". Although there is an Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, it is aimed at students in grades 9-12.

Upon inquiry from MT, the NSF responded, "The letter is not authentic, Linda [Slakey] had no knowledge of it, and it amounts to fraudulent use of our name and logo." The NSF has referred the matter to its Office of Inspector General for investigation.

Although Climate Depot has posted an update ("4th-Grade Skeptical Climate Science 'winner' revealed as hoax!"), as of now the Google search "julisa castillo" + "science fair" + correction has only 3 hits, none of which are actual corrections.

More commentary at Wonk Room:
Marc Morano Promotes Climate Denial Hoax Against Fourth Grader

Image: Climate Depot screen capture from Wonk Room

Gulf Gusher: Worst Case Scenario

From xkcd (click to enlarge):

Model Simulates Likely Spread of BP Gulf Oil Into Atlantic

A study released today by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) shows that oil spreading from the massive BP gusher in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to move around Florida, along the southeast U.S. coast, and into the western Atlantic. The computer modeling is not a specific forecast, but it shows the likely flow based on average ocean currents in the region. The 6 simulations which were run provide an "envelope of possible scenarios for the oil dispersal." One of these is shown below:



Description from NCAR:

This animation shows one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to green (most diluted). The dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot; rather, it depicts how much of the total oil from the source that will be carried elsewhere by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.
The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf. The full set of six simulations can be found here. (Visualization by Tim Scheitlin and Rick Brownrigg, NCAR; based on model simulations.)

2010 Hurricane Outlook: Heckuva Season, Brownie!

The 2010 hurricane season outlook, released this morning by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, calls for an 85% chance of above-average tropical activity. This would make the upcoming season the busiest since the record year of 2005, which had 28 named storms. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco said, "If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record." The forecast includes a 70% probability of the following ranges (historical averages in the middle and right columns):

	Forecast	Long-term	1995-2009
Named Storms	14-23	11	14.5
Hurricanes	8-14	6	8
Major Hurricanes	3-7	2	4

The major factors expected to produce the high level of tropical activity are:

• Favorable upper level winds: Wind shear (change in wind with height) is expected to be low since the El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have dissipated.
• Warm sea surface temperatures: Atlantic Ocean temperatures are at record high levels, as much as 4° above average.
• Continuing high activity era: Eight of the 15 seasons since 1995 are in the top 10 list for named storms.

As far as storm landfalls are concerned, NOAA's outlook says that "it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season."

Weather Channel video report on the hurricane season outlook is here:



Possible impacts of the hurricane season on oil and natural gas prices were discussed within the past hour on CNBC:



From Reuters:
US govt warns of worst hurricane season since 2005

From Palm Beach Post Eye on the Storm blog, including a video clip of the NOAA announcement:
Another prediction of a “really bad season”

All-Time May Monthly Heat Records Set in Massachusetts, Rhode Island

June 1 Update: Updated figures for the entire month show heat records outnumbering cold records in May by over 40% (1054 vs. 748). For the week ending May 28, the ratio was almost 3:1. The number of heat records on May 26 has increased to 115 vs. only 7 cold records.

May 27 PM Update: The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reports that at total of 88 new daily high temperature records were set on May 26 in the U.S., following 164 on the previous day. A total of only 34 low temperature records were set on the 2 days. For the week ending yesterday, the ratio of heat records to cold records was about 2:1. Although January and February were relatively cold, May is continuing the trend of the last 3 months for the number of heat records to far exceed the number of cold records.

Original post:
Several all-time May heat records were broken or tied across New England on May 26. The high of 94° at Worcester was a new high for the month of May and broke the old daily high from 1932 by 4°. Providence also set a monthly record of 96°, breaking the old daily record from 1965 by 5°. The high of 99° at Hartford tied the May record and broke the old daily record from 1965 by 5°.

Daily temperature records were also widespread from Pennsylvania through New York and New England and into southern Canada, where an extreme heat alert was issued for the Toronto area. Toronto's high of 31°C broke a record for the second straight day, and records were also set at Peterborough, Ottawa, North Bay and Sudbury. Canadian forecasters are anticipating a warmer than average summer following the warmest winter and warmest spring on record.

Images (click to enlarge): Number of daily high and low temperature records set in the U.S., data from NCDC, background image © Kevin Ambrose; Surface temperature map at 3 pm EDT, May 26, shows 90°+ temperatures across New England, eastern New York, and northward into Canada, from Unisys.

Size Matters: This is Your Nation's Capital on BP Gulf Gusher Goo

Paul Rademacher, engineering director for Google Maps, has developed an application (How big is the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?) that plots the surface extent of the BP Gulf Gusher oil slick over any location on Earth. The app was designed to give a visual demonstration of the geographical magnitude of the disaster in terms anyone could relate to their own area.

The view pictured here shows the area as of May 21, one month after the Deepwater Horizon rig explosion, superimposed on the Washington DC region. The area of solid oil coverage extends from near Wilmington across northern Delaware, northeastern Maryland, Baltimore City and its contiguous suburbs, much of central Maryland including all of Howard and Montgomery Counties, Washington DC, northern Virginia, and southward into the Northern Neck. Scattered patches extend westward toward the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley as well as southward across the Chesapeake Bay.

Image (click to enlarge): BP Gulf Gusher oil slick as of May 21 compared to Washington DC metropolitan region

(A tip of the wind vane to CNN.)