PM Update: Gustav Now Extremely Dangerous Category 4

Strengthening Possible Before Gulf Coast Landfall

11 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav has emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico after crossing western Cuba. Winds have decreased to 140 mph, but the storm is likely to intensify again over the Gulf. It continues on track to reach the northern Gulf Coast Monday afternoon. The most likely point of landfall is the Louisiana coast west of the Mississippi River.

8 pm Update: At 8 pm, Hurricane Gustav remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm as it crosses western Cuba. Maximum winds remain at 150 mph. Some strengthening to Category 5 is possible. The center is located about 65 miles west southwest of Havana, moving northwest at 15 mph. On its current track, it is expected to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Monday as a major hurricane.

5 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav is now a very strong Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 150 mph as it approaches western Cuba. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast, from High Island, Texas eastward to the Alabama/Florida border. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued eastward from there along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

The eye of the storm was located about 130 miles east northeast of the western tip of Cuba, and the storm was moving northwest at 15 mph. The latest forecast track brings Gustav a little more quickly to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. The minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 942 mb.

Original post:
Aircraft reconnaissance has found that Hurricane Gustav is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 145 mph. A special advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm locates Gustav just east of the Cuban Isle of Youth and 155 miles east of the western tip of Cuba. An unofficial report showed a sustained wind of 140 mph as the western edge of the eyewall reached the Isle of Youth. Minimum pressure is estimated at 945 mb. Additional strengthening is likely, with the storm possibly reaching Category 5 in the vicinity of western Cuba.

Images: Gustav track from HAMweather (upper), Gustav radar from The Weather Channel (lower)

Dangerous Hurricane Gustav Approaches Cuba, Heading for U.S. Landfall Monday

Hurricane Gustav strengthened rapidly overnight and is now a Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. It's approaching western Cuba on a northwesterly path at 14 mph. The current track will bring Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico by early Sunday and to a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. Although the storm's strength is likely to fluctuate crossing Cuba, further intensification is likely in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Gustav will reach a maximum strength of Category 4.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the lower Florida Keys, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of western Cuba.

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track forecast from National Hurricane Center (lower)

Hurricane Gustav Begins Intensification Likely to be Major Threat in Gulf

11 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav's maximum winds have increased to 80 mph as it moves through the Cayman Islands. As of 11 pm, the center of Gustav is about 25 miles west southwest of Little Cayman Island, moving northwest at 10 mph. Further strengthening is forecast for the next two days.

Original post:
On the third anniversary of Katrina, Hurricane Gustav is developing into a potential major threat to the northern Gulf Coast. Moving westward from Jamaica over some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic basin, Gustav has re-intensified to a hurricane this afternoon. At 3:15, it was upgraded to a Category 1 storm with winds up to 75 mph, based on aircraft reconnaissance.

Gustav is expected to continue intensifying, possibly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3) by the time it reaches western Cuba this weekend. One index of intensification is showing a 35% chance of an increase of up to 30 knots in wind speed during the next 24 hours.

At 5 pm, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the lower Florida Keys. Various watches and warnings remain in effect for the Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, and Jamaica.

Gustav Economic Impacts

Videos from CNBC:

• ConocoPhillips CEO on Gustav
  
• Trading Gustav
  
• Gustav, the Gulf and Oil
  
• Entergy's Gustav Preparations
  
• Gulf Coast Businesses Prepare for Gustav

Images: Gustav track forecast (upper) from National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for the Gulf of Mexico (middle) and Caribbean (lower) shows possibility for major development of Hurricane Gustav. Source: AOML/NOAA

PM Update: Gustav Near Hurricane Force

Tropical Storm Gustav is strengthening early this afternoon to near hurricane force. Maximum winds are 70 mph at 2 pm, based on aircraft reconnaissance, and the storm could become a Category 1 hurricane at any time. The storm has also expanded somewhat today; tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected.

The latest advisory places the center of Gustav 125 miles east southeast of Grand Cayman, moving west northwest at 11 mph. On its current track, the storm will pass near or over the Cayman Islands today, over western Cuba Saturday, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday.

Gustav Leaving Jamaica, Hanna Disorganized Both Expected to Strengthen

Tropical Storm Gustav weakened slightly overnight from its encounter with Jamaica, but it is now moving away from the island and is expected to strengthen today, possibly rapidly. Maximum winds at 11 am were at 65 mph. The center of the storm was located about 165 miles away from Grand Cayman Island and headed in that direction at 8 mph. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of western Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for central Cuba.

Gustav will be moving over very warm water in the northwestern Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions, so it is very likely to become a hurricane some time today. It could even become a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. One intensity model gives a 28% chance of an increase in strength of 30 knots or more in the next 24 hours. There is still wide disagreement among models on the final landfall point, so all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should remain alert.

Tropical Storm Hanna is somewhat disorganized as it passes north of the Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are 50 mph as of 11 am. Gradual strengthening is likely with the storm possibly becoming a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.

Gustav Economic Impacts

• After opening higher, natural gas prices are up a little less than 2% in mid day trading.
  
• WSJ Environmental Capital reviews yesterday's counterintuitive energy price action.
  
• StormWire says Gustav is Worst Threat to Oil Industry since Katrina

CNBC video reports this morning:

• Gustav & the Ports
• Anadarko Prepares for Gustav
• Gustav & New Orleans Tourism
  
• Gustav: Worst Case Scenario

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel, Gustav and Hanna forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Gustav Grinds On, Hanna Holds On

Late PM Update: Gustav is still a strong Tropical Storm as it moves westward along the south side of Jamaica with maximum winds of 70 mph as of 11 pm. There is still wide disagreement among models on the storm's intensity, but it is expected to be a major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

Hanna has strengthened to 50 mph this evening; it's expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

8 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Gustav is now near the south coast of Jamaica, about 15 miles west of Kingston. Movement is toward the west at 7 mph, and maximum winds are still 70 mph. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, and the warning for Jamaica remains in effect.

Update: Added wind probability chart, link to Jamaica Gleaner.

Tropical Storm Gustav continues to bear down on Jamaica late this afternoon after making landfall on the eastern tip of the island around 2 pm. Maximum winds are still at 70 mph. As of 5 pm, the center of Gustav is located only 15 miles east northeast of Kingston. It's moving west around 6 mph.

The storm's expected track has now prompted a Hurricane Watch to be issued for portions of western Cuba. There has been little change in the official track or intensity forecast, but there are large uncertainties in both. The National Hurricane Center says

IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.

The bottom chart on the right shows that, between Gustav and Hanna, there is at least a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days along the entire Gulf Coast and along the Atlantic Coast as far north as North Carolina.

This means that interests along the entire western and northern Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on this storm. The governors of Louisiana and Texas have already issued disaster declarations in order to facilitate storm preparations. The Jamaica Gleaner reports on how Jamaicans are preparing for the storm in their own unique way.

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to maintain minimum strength of 40 mph as it moves west northwest and then northwest away from the northern Leeward Islands.

In the always volatile energy markets today, oil prices dropped and natural gas gave up nearly all of its gains of the last 2 days as it fell over 6% by the close. For a discussion of Gustav's potential impacts on the Gulf of Mexico energy industry and the city of New Orleans, see today's videos from CNBC:

• Tracking Gustav's Path
  
• Gearing Up for Gustav
• Are We Prepared for Gustav?

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel, Gustav forecast track and wind probabilities from National Hurricane Center

Breaking News: Hello, Hanna! Gustav's Rain Hits Jamaica

Early PM Update: Tropical Storm Gustav, still just below hurricane strength, is bringing heavy rain to Jamaica. At 2 pm, the storm was around the eastern tip of the island, about 40 miles east of Kingston. It's moving to the west at 5 mph and is expected to continue on that course with some increase in forward speed the rest of today. A reconnaissance flight is currently measuring conditions near and around Gustav.

Original post:
Tropical Depression 8 has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna with maximum winds of 40 mph as of 11 am. It's located a little over 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west northwest at 12 mph. Hanna is expected to gradually reach hurricane force as it moves northwestward and then more westward, possibly threatening the Bahamas or Florida later on.

Tropical Storm Gustav remains just under hurricane force as it moves westward toward Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. Maximum winds are 70 mph, and the forward speed is around 5 mph.