Think It Was Cold Today, DC? Not Your Great-Great Grandfather's March of the Penguins

Denizens of the DMV were complaining about the early-spring cold this March 21, but the chill was nowhere near the historical extremes for this date or any other date through the end of the month. Although the high for the day of 42° was set shortly after midnight, the daytime temperatures were mostly in the 30s. On the other hand, the afternoon high did reach 41°. This was well below the historical average of 58° in Washington, DC, but it was also a full 10° above the coldest high temperature for the date, which was set in 1885. In fact, it would not be near any coldest high for the remainder of March.

The CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data shows that all but 1 of the 13 record coldest high temperatures from March 19-31 were set over 100 years ago. The one exception was 73 years ago, on 03/25/1940.

Washington March Snow: Rare Event Becoming Rarer?

The climatological average for March snowfall in Washington is just 1.3", so significant snowfalls in the first month of meteorological spring are rare. With the bust of the current "Snowquester", it's likely that 2013 will add to a string of nearly snowless Marches extending back to 2009, when a total of 5.5" was recorded.

In the early days of official snowfall records, which began in Washington in 1888, March snow was relatively common. In fact, the first 6 years in the climate record had measurable March snow; 3 of those were over 10".

The chart shows on the horizontal axis all of the years with 4" or more of total snowfall in March. The vertical axis is the number of years since the previous occurrence of 4"+. For example, if 4" occurred in consecutive years, the interval would be shown as 1. For the first several decades, the interval between significant March snows never exceeded 4 years, but in 1923 it reached 9. The interval reached double digits for the first time in 1956, when it was 13. It was 13 again in 1993, and 10 in 2009, which ended a March snow dry spell that began after 1999.

Unless this month has a miraculous snowfall recovery, the current March snow drought will be 4 years and counting.

Blizzard Threatens Texas All-Time Snowfall Records

8 PM CST February 26 Update: Map updated with final totals.

8 PM CST Update: The Amarillo snow total of 19" is the third heaviest for any storm on record:

19 inches of snow at NWS #Amarillo. 2nd most snow in a calendar day and 3rd most for any event. #phwx #amablizzard

— NWS Amarillo (@NWSAmarillo) February 26, 2013

4 PM CST Update: Here are some unofficial snowfall reports from the National Weather Service for the Texas panhandle:

Location              Snowfall  Source
7 ENE Amarillo  TX      17      nws office
Fritch          TX      16      trained spotter
Pampa           TX      15      co-op observer
6 SE Booker     TX      14      trained spotter
Fritch          TX      14      trained spotter
White Deer      TX      14      public
Booker          TX      14      emergency mngr
Fritch          TX      13      public
3 S Darrouzett  TX      12.5    trained spotter
Dumas           TX      12      law enforcement
Bushland        TX      12      public
6 SW Amarillo   TX      12      trained spotter 

Original Post:
The ongoing blizzard in the Texas panhandle is threatening to break some all-time Texas snowfall records. These are the current snowfall records at Amarillo, from the National Weather Service:

Max for 24 hours: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934
Max for a single storm: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934
Max for one month: 28.7 inches in February 1903
Max measured snow depth: 17.0 inches on February 26, 1903
Max for a season: 50.9 inches in 1918-19

The NWS at Amarillo reports:

GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. THE NWS OFFICE NOW HAS OVER 13 INCHES
ON THE GROUND WITH 3-4 FOOT DRIFTS AND A MAX GUST TO 58 MPH. THE SE
TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN WITH SNOW AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THESE AREAS
MIGHT END UP WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 8 INCH SIDE THAN THE 14 INCH
SIDE OF THEIR RANGE. AT THE END OF THE DAY...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ALONG A PALO DURO CANYON TO AMARILLO TO
STINNETT TO PERRYTON LINE.

SOME RECORDS SEEM TO BE IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION TODAY. THE FIRST IS
AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT AMARILLO OF 20.6 INCHES FROM
MARCH 25-26 1934. WE WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE OR SURPASS THIS
NUMBER BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OTHER IS THE ALL-TIME STATE OF TEXAS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF
25 INCHES IN FOLLETT SET MARCH 28 2009. SOMEWHERE IN THE
PERRYTON/STINNETT/BORGER/AMARILLO AREA COULD APPROACH THIS VALUE BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  

Record Low Mid-Atmospheric Pressure Predicted for Midwest Blizzard

The maximum intensity for the developing Midwest blizzard is nearly 2 days away, but a major forecast model is predicting mid-atmospheric pressures at least as low as any observed during February in the region since systematic upper-air observations began in 1948. Based on data from this morning, the NOAA/NCEP GFS model is predicting super-low pressures by Tuesday morning near the middle of the atmosphere above the storm. The map above shows the predicted height (meters) of the level at which the pressure is 500 mb, or roughly half the value at the surface. The small circle near the Missouri-Arkansas border is labeled 528, or 5280 meters (approximately 3 miles). The values inside the circle would be even lower. According to historical data from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, the 500 mb height has never been as low as 5280 meters in that region since 1948. Here is a list of the top 10 lowest observations in February at latitude 35 N, longitude 90 W:

Date       Meters
1991,2,15, 5287
1964,2,19, 5314
1978,2,21, 5318
1984,2,28, 5323
1965,2,25, 5334
1970,2, 3, 5345
1971,2, 9, 5357
2010,2,15, 5357
1958,2, 2, 5361
1984,2, 5, 5361 

Looked at another way, the composite forecast from an ensemble of GFS forecast runs made from last night's data indicates that the 500 mb height departure from the long-term average will be as much as 5 standard deviations by Monday night (chart to the right, click to enlarge). For a purely randomly distributed event, a negative departure from average of 4.5 standard deviations would occur only 3 times in a million.

Next Storm Threatens Wichita All-Time Monthly Snow Record [Update: Record Broken]

February 26, 9 AM CST Update: The Wichita daily record snowfall of 4.8" yesterday, plus 2" so far today, brings the monthly total to 21", which breaks the record.

February 25, 8 PM CST Update: The heaviest snow appears to be passing south of Wichita. The National Weather Service reports just 1.9" so far today.

4 PM CST Update: The latest National Weather Service updated forecast calls for over 14" of snow at Wichita. This could exceed the old monthly record by an incredible 8":



Original Post:
It's still getting itself organized over the Rockies, but the next Midwest storm is threatening to bring heavy snow to Kansas for the second time within a week. The current forecast is calling for 6-12" of new snow for Wichita. If this verifies even slightly above the low end of the range, it could push the current monthly total of 14.2" above the all-time monthly record of 20.5" set exactly 100 years ago.

Second Biggest Snowstorm on Record at Wichita

8 PM CST Update: Unofficial reports of 12" or more of snow in Kansas have been added below.

Original post:
The latest National Weather Service storm total report from Wichita, Kansas indicates that the 14.2" so far is the second biggest snowstorm since records began in 1888. According to the latest hourly report, snow has now ended. Elsewhere in Kansas, unofficial reports were as high as 18". From the NWS:

.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.    
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0440 PM     HEAVY SNOW       WICHITA MID CONTINENT A 37.66N 97.44W   
02/21/2013  M14.2 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   OFFICIAL NWS OBS  
  
            OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR WICHITA THROUGH 440 PM.  

0448 PM     HEAVY SNOW       NASHVILLE               37.44N 98.42W   
02/21/2013  M18.0 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT   
  
0448 PM     HEAVY SNOW       SPIVEY                  37.45N 98.17W   
02/21/2013  M14.0 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER   
  
0448 PM     HEAVY SNOW       KINGMAN                 37.65N 98.11W   
02/21/2013  M14.0 INCH       KINGMAN            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR   

The NWS chart shows the previous top 20 snowstorms at Wichita:



This storm will also make February 2013 a top-20 snowiest month and the 5th snowiest February at Wichita:



[Update] Here are some unofficial reports of 12" or more:

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET  
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE  
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.  
  
SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT  
  
 INCHES  LOCATION                 ST  COUNTY           TIME  
 ------  -----------------------  --  --------------   -------  
 18.00   NASHVILLE                KS  KINGMAN          0448 PM  
 14.20   WICHITA MID CONTINENT A  KS  SEDGWICK         0440 PM  
                 OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR WICHITA  
                 THROUGH 440 PM.  
 14.00   NORWICH                  KS  KINGMAN          0503 PM  
                 7 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL SINCE EARLY THIS  
                 MORNING WITH TOTAL OF 14 INCHES ON GROUND.  
 14.00   SPIVEY                   KS  KINGMAN          0448 PM  
 14.00   KINGMAN                  KS  KINGMAN          0448 PM  
 14.00   CLEARWATER               KS  SEDGWICK         0348 PM  
 14.00   WICHITA MID CONTINENT A  KS  SEDGWICK         0346 PM  
                 OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR WICHITA.  
 14.00   CLEARWATER               KS  SEDGWICK         0245 PM  
 13.50   HUTCHINSON               KS  RENO             0554 PM  
                 STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGED FROM 12 TO 15  
                 INCHES IN THE HUTCHINSON AREA.  
 13.10   HUTCHINSON               KS  RENO             1142 AM  
 13.00   8 E KINGMAN              KS  KINGMAN          0644 PM  
 13.00   ELLSWORTH                KS  ELLSWORTH        0429 PM  
                 STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.  
 13.00   N LYONS                  KS  RICE             0404 PM  
                 SNOWFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE COUNTY RANGE FROM  
                 12 TO 14 INCHES.  
 13.00   MCPHERSON                KS  MCPHERSON        1203 PM  
 12.80   1 E HAYSVILLE            KS  SEDGWICK         0457 PM  
 12.50   WICHITA MID CONTINENT A  KS  SEDGWICK         0246 PM  
                 OFFICIAL STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL SO FAR FOR  
                 WICHITA.  
 12.00   4 ESE MARQUETTE          KS  MCPHERSON        0535 PM  
 12.00   MCPHERSON                KS  MCPHERSON        0534 PM  
                 STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WAS 11.8 INCHES WITH  
                 DEPTH AT 11.0 INCHES.  
 12.00   SALINA                   KS  SALINE           0438 PM  
                 SNOW TOTAL WAS REPORTED TO BE 11.7 INCHES  
 12.00   LYONS                    KS  RICE             1016 AM  
                 DRIFTS OF UNSPECIFIED DEPTH ALSO REPORTED.  
 12.00   5 N EL DORADO            KS  BUTLER           0930 AM  
                 RURAL REPORTS OF 12 INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF  
                 EL DORADO.  

SnowNoGettin': Washington on Track for Record Lowest 3-Year Total Snowfall, Largest 3-Year Decrease

As the massive snowfalls of the 2009-1010 season fade into the rear-view mirror, Washington DC is close to ending meteorological winter with a near-record low 3-year snow total. With the latest nor'easter bombing out well offshore, there is no Presidents' Day snowfall this year, and model indications are that there will be little, if any, snow in the next 10 days. That would end meteorological winter with a puny 1.5", the lowest since the 0.1" in November 1997 through February 1998. For the past 3 years, the winter total of 13.4" is likely to be the second lowest on record, ahead of the 14.1" in the 3-year interval ending in 2008-09. This means that two of the three lowest 3-year totals will be the periods immediately preceding and following the record season of 2009-2010.

For the entire season (including all months), assuming no more snow in February, the highly erratic month of March would have to contribute nearly 5" for the 3-year seasonal total to exceed the current record low for the period ending in 1998-99.

Comparing consecutive 3-year totals, the current amount of 13.6" is a massive 54.6" less than the 3-year total ending last year, which included the record high season. This is over 13" more than the 3-year decrease observed in 1901-02, the current record decrease.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Washington 3-year snow totals ending at season indicated
- Lowest Washington 3-year winter-only (November-February) snow totals
- Lowest Washington 3-year snow totals (2013 to date)
- Largest decreases in consecutive 3-year Washington snow totals (2013 to date)
CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data; background image © Kevin Ambrose