Heat Records Demolish Cold Records for 13th Consecutive Month;January Ends With Incredible Ratio of [Update] 29 to 1 in Contiguous U.S.

Feb. 1, AM Update: The National Climatic Data Center reports an additional 123 new high temperature records on January 31 (vs. 0 cold records). This brings the ratio for the month to nearly 22 to 1 and the ratio for the lower 48 states to 29 to 1. The chart has been updated.

Midnight Update: The record temperatures on January 30 extended into the Midwest, where Omaha tied its all-time January temperature record and several long-term daily records were smashed by as much as 10°. The National Weather Service reports:

New temperature records were set today, January 30th, 2012 across eastern Nebraska. Omaha's new record is 69 degrees, which breaks the previous record of 60 set in 1974. This also ties the all time high in January, which was reached January 25, 1944. In Lincoln, the new record high is 70, breaking the previous record of 60 set in 1931. And in Norfolk, the new record high is 67, breaking the previous record of 57 set in 1992.

Original post:
A very mild January 2012 is ending with more new high temperature records being set in the Mid Atlantic region and the Northeast. Washington Dulles has at least tied broken the daily record for January 31 with 66° (old record 65° in 1993). By mid afternoon, the 54° at Bridgeport CT exceeded the old record of 53° set in 1974. At Islip NY, where the climate history extends back only to 1986, the temperature of 52° before noon broke the old record of 51° set in 1988. The 63° at Georgetown DE exceeded by 3° the record of 60° in 1974.

The 63° at Atlantic City NJ tied the record from 1988 in a climate history which began back in 1874.

This is now the 13th consecutive month that new high temperature records have exceeded low temperature records in the U.S., since cold records eked out a ratio of 1.5 to 1 vs. heat records in December 2010. The preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center through January 30 show heat records crushing cold records by a ratio of 20.7 to 1, nearly as high as the incredible 22.2 to 1 last August. Without the 25% of total January cold records set in Alaska, the ratio for the contiguous 48 states is 27.5 to 1. With meteorological winter now two-thirds over, the ratio for the season as a whole is at 6.2 to 1.

Image (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for December 2010 through January 30, 2012, seasonal ratio for summer and fall 2011, winter 2011-2012 to date, and annual ratio for 2011 and 2010
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.

Dallas Deluge Demolishes Daily Downpour Data; New January Daily Rainfall Record, Second Wettest January

Following last year's exceptional drought, the climate pendulum has jumped to the opposite extreme, bringing record rainfall and floods to portions of north Texas. Although the National Weather Service reports that the heavy rain has ended, the 3.54" of rain so far today at Dallas is nearly 3 times the old record for the date of 1.28" in 1973. The daily total is also an all-time January daily record, exceeding the 3.15" on January 4, 1998, and it's the second-highest daily total for any winter day (December-February), behind the 4.22" on December 20, 1991.

The January 2012 monthly total to date of 6.04" is approaching 4 times the normal amount of 1.66". It also surpasses the 5.58" in January 2007 to become the second wettest January, behind 9.07" in 1932.

Note: Although the Dallas/Ft. Worth climate record is considered continuous back to 1898, data have been collected at several locations in the area:

• 1898-1940: Downtown Fort Worth
• 1940-1953: Fort Worth Meacham Field
• 1953-1974: Greater Southwest International Airport
• 1974-present: Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport

Image (click to enlarge): 24-hour rainfall totals ending 1 pm CST, January 25, 2012, in the Dallas region, from National Weather Service

Gas Bubble: Coal Market Share for U.S. Electricity Generation Declines from 50% to 43% in 2 Years

The good news: Electricity generation from coal is declining sharply in the U.S., from 50% 2 years ago to 43% today.

The bad news: The reason for the drop is that there is a "virtually infinite" supply of natural gas. The lowest gas prices in at least a decade ($2.34 Friday morning) are making coal-fired power plants uneconomical. Out of 350 gigawatts of coal capacity, roughly 50 gigawatts are at risk for replacement by cheap gas.

Kenneth Hersh, NGP Energy Capital Management Co. CEO was interviewed on CNBC Friday morning (January 20):

Mid-Winter 2012 Temperature Update: Heat Records Crushing Cold Records by Over 6 to 1

At the midpoint of meteorological winter (December-February), new high temperature records are outnumbering low temperature records in the U.S. by a ratio of 6.2 to 1, according to preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center. Thanks to an incredible ratio of nearly 34 to 1 in the first half of January, the seasonal ratio is the highest since the over 11 to 1 value last summer. The total count of 2545 new heat records for the first 6 weeks for winter outnumbers the total cold records in the last 6 months of 2011.

The preliminary analysis from NOAA/NCEP data for December 1-January 16 shows the warmest temperatures relative to average (as much as 8°C above) in western Canada, extending southeastward across most of the U.S. The only area in the country with substantially below-average temperatures includes New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for December 2010 through January 16, 2012, seasonal ratio for summer and fall 2011, winter 2011-2012 to date, and annual ratio for 2011 and 2010;
- U.S. temperature departure from climatological average, December 1, 2011 to January 16, 2012
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
U.S. average temperature map from NOAA/NCEP via ESRL

Minneapolis Ties Record for Latest Sub-Zero Temperature; New Record Missed by 1 Hour

12:30 AM CST Update: It's semi-official; the preliminary daily climate summary for January 18 reports a low temperature of -1° at the Twin Cities. St. Cloud hit -9° tonight after having been -3° in the morning.

Original post:
The temperature this winter has remained above 0° at Minneapolis through January 17 (Tuesday), at least tying the record for latest below-zero reading, on January 18 in 1889 and 2002. After the morning low of +2°, the temperature was at 0° as of 11 pm CST and falling. The midnight temperature was -1°, so the record was missed by 1 hour. The National Weather Service reported earlier:

The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures failed to drop below zero.

In the Twin Cities, the long term average for the first below zero reading is December 9th. The least number of below zero days was 2, back in the winter of 2001-2002. January 18th is the latest date on record during the winter season that the Twin Cities has experienced its first below zero temperature (set back in 1889 and 2002).

The temperature Wednesday morning (January 18th) failed to drop below zero, and is expected to remain above zero for the rest of the day, so this record has been tied. The "latest sub-zero temperature" record is expected to be broken tomorrow (January 19th) when temperatures drop below zero at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport early Thursday morning.

Mankato has also not dropped below zero this winter, as of January 17th. However, the low temperature is expected to drop below zero Thursday morning, ending the streak there as well. The least number of below zero days for a given winter in Mankato was 6 back in the winter of 1982-1983.

St Cloud, Albert Lea and Eau Claire have already seen below zero days this winter. As of January 17th, St. Cloud and Albert Lea have all dropped below zero 3 times. Eau Claire has dropped below zero 2 times so far.

Breaking News: Keystone Pipeline Rejected

CNBC has confirmed within the past hour that the Obama administration will reject the application for the TransCanada Keystone XL oil sands pipeline. Energy prices are generally unaffected:


Other reports:
NPR: Reports: Obama Administration Will Reject Keystone Pipeline Proposal
NY Times: State Dept. to Put Pipeline on Hold, Officials Say
BBC: Keystone XL oil pipeline plan 'to be rejected'
Politico: Keystone XL pipeline to be rejected by Obama administration

Torrid Start to 2012: First 8 Days of Heat Records More Than 2X Total Cold Records for Entire Summer

Think it was hot last summer? In relative terms, the first 8 days of 2012 have been even more scorching. The 1,367 new daily high temperature records set so far in January have been more than double the total number of cold records set in the entire summer of 2011. Compared to the amazing ratio of more than 11 to 1 for heat records vs. cold records in the summer, the ratio so far this month has been more than 3 times as high, at 36 to 1.

In fact, there have been as many all-time January monthly high temperature records (38) as daily low temperature records. Although these were focused in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa, monthly records were also set in Montana, Oregon, Idaho, and Wyoming.

The record setting high temperatures have been particularly intense in the northern Plains and upper Midwest, where many old records in century-plus climate histories were broken by double digits. As the map shows, however, records have been broken from coast to coast in most states except the extreme northeast and Florida.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Monthly total counts of daily high temperature and low temperature records set in the U.S. for January 2011 through December 2011 and January 1-8, 2012; CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
- Locations of daily high temperature records broken (marked with "X") or tied, January 1-8, 2012, from NCDC.