May 2009 Fourth Warmest on Record

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported on Monday that May 2009 had the fourth warmest global average temperature in 130 years of data. Most land areas were above average in temperature, with the warmest readings relative to average in Alaska, Iceland, the western contiguous U.S., and much of Europe and Asia.

Cooler-than-average regions included New Zealand, Canada, and parts of western and central Asia and Australia. Large portions of Canada were 2-5°C (4-9°F) below average.

Sea surface temperatures were above average over most of the oceans; the notable exceptions were parts of the northeastern Pacific and central Atlantic.

Precipitation patterns during May were generally mixed, according to NCDC:

During May 2009, above-average precipitation fell over areas that included southeastern Asia, the southeastern contiguous U.S., northeastern Brazil, east central Australia, and parts of Russia, northern Europe, and northern India. Drier-than-average conditions were present across the Hawaiian Islands, Alaska's panhandle, the central U.S., northeastern South America, southern Europe, eastern Asia, and most of Australia.

Images (click to enlarge): May global temperature departures from average since 1880, May 2009 land and sea surface temperature departures, May 2009 precipitation departures, all from NOAA/NCDC

Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Nears Record

In a Tropical Update report Tuesday evening, The Weather Channel's tropical expert Dr. Steve Lyons reported that the eastern Pacific hurricane season is nearing a modern record for latest start. Since the beginning of the satellite observation era in 1965, the latest beginning of the season in that region was June 20, which is now only 4 days away.

As of 5 pm PDT, however, the National Hurricane Center was identifying an area about 350 miles off the coast of Mexico as having a high probability (over 50%) of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

Image (click to enlarge) from National Hurricane Center

Major New U.S. Report Assesses Climate Change, Future Impacts

June 17 Update: News conference video is available here (Lubchenco's comments come near the end, after 54:30):



11 pm Update:
At a news conference this afternoon presenting the results of the report, NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco called it a "game-changer":

The findings are a game-changer. Much of the foot-dragging in addressing climate change is a reflection of the perception that climate change is way down the road . . . This report demonstrates, provides the concrete scientific information that says unequivocally that climate change is happening now, and it's happening in our own back yards and it affects the kinds of things that people care about.

Original post:
The U.S. Government's Global Change Research Program, a joint activity of 13 departments and agencies, this afternoon released a report, Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. The report "summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future." It is the "first report in almost a decade to provide an extensive evaluation of climate change impacts on the United States at the regional level." The 189-page report is available online to download in full or in part, and is also being published by Cambridge University Press.

The report's key findings:

1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
   
2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
   
3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
   
4. Climate change will stress water resources.
   
5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
   
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
   
7. Threats to human health will increase.
   
8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
   
9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
   
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.

Image (click to enlarge): Atmospheric CO₂ content and global average temperatures since 1880 from U.S. Global Change Research Program

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Continues to Accelerate Decline Now Beyond 2007 Record Pace

The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported last week that the Arctic sea ice melt season had gained momentum in May following a slow start. (The rate of decline in April was the third slowest on record.) The latest chart of sea ice extent now shows that the current measurement exceeds even the record-setting pace of 2007.

As Herr Hare points out, however, that hasn't stopped the denialists from declaring the exact opposite.

Image (click to enlarge): Time series of Arctic sea ice extent as of June 9, from NSIDC

Global Warming Doesn't Make Sense? Try Gravity

In an infinite world of Googling Monkeys, all forms of BS (Blog Science) should be equally likely, but anti-gravity blogs are far fewer than anti-global-warming blogs. Why is that the case? New Scientist magazine points out "Seven things that don't make sense about gravity".

Maybe the anti-gravity true believers have all taken a long walk on a short pier.

Tuesday's Twin Thunderstorms: DC's Double Dose of Downpours June Rainfall Ahead of Last Year's Pace

Images (click to enlarge): CapitalClimate chart of 2009 vs. 2008 monthly precipitation from National Weather Service (NWS) data, 24-hour precipitation amounts and 60-day percentage of average precipitation ending at 8 am June 10 from NWS

June 11 Update: Note that the Dulles record for June 10 was particularly vulnerable, since it was one of only a handful of June days with records below 1". The remaining ones are:

June  8 0.96"
June  9 0.66"
June 14 0.91"
June 23 0.48" 

The all-time June daily record is 10.67" on June 21, 1972.

Midnight update: Additional daily amounts for Wednesday, June 10:

Washington National 0.48"
Washington Dulles   1.16" (1.04" in the hour ending 10 pm)
Baltimore (BWI)     0.15"                 

As of Tuesday's total, Washington National was already above the long-term average for the entire month of June. Wednesday's amount at Dulles was a new daily record for June 10, exceeding the 0.83" in 1963, the year the airport first opened. The year-to-date total at Dulles of 25.21" is now ahead of last year's near-record pace and nearly 40% above average.

Original post:
Tuesday's early morning and afternoon rush hour rounds of thunderstorms have added to the growing 2009 precipitation excess in the Washington-Baltimore region. Daily/monthly/year-to-date rainfall totals through June 9 are:

Washington National 0.89"/3.48"/20.75"
Washington Dulles   0.24"/4.27"/24.05"
Baltimore (BWI)     0.37"/2.74"/22.02"                  

Despite a droughty debut, the year is now 3.73" above average at Washington National. For the first month since January, June's total is now running over an inch above 2008's near-record rainfall rate.

North Pole at 85°F Several Heat Records Set in Alaska

The city of North Pole near Fairbanks was one of several locations in Alaska setting record daily high temperatures on Thursday (June 4). The National Climatic Data Center reported the following records in the state:

                PREV
RECORD  PREV    YEAR  LOCATION
85.0    84.0    1993  NORTH POLE
83.0    78.0    1958  ANNETTE WSO AP
82.0    80.0    1980  NORTHWAY AP
71.0    70.0    1997  ELFIN COVE  

The National Weather Service issued the following record report:

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR 

FAIRBANKS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS CLOSE...85 DEGREES, BUT 
NO RECORD TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE SO 
FAR THIS MONTH AND YEAR. 

EAGLE...86 AND NORTHWAY...82 AIRPORTS BOTH BROKE THEIR RECORD  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 

EAGLE AIRPORTS OLD TEMPERATURE WAS 84 SET IN 2007 AND NORTHWAY 
AIRPORTS 80 WAS SET IN 1980. 

EIELSON AIR FORCE BASE TIED THEIR 1997 HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 
DEGREES. 

A HANDFUL OF REMOTE LOCATIONS LIKE GOOD PASTURE RIVER HIT 
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...THERE IS NO HISTORICAL RECORDS FOR  
THESE LOCATIONS.