Bertha Barrels On: Day 14

Described by the National Hurricane Center as a "powerful system with a large wind field", Tropical Storm Bertha continued churning generally eastward in the Atlantic today. Maximum winds are about 70 mph, and the storm has now turned to the southeast at 5 mph from a position about 360 miles northeast of Bermuda. A couple more days of tropical storm status are likely.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain active for this early in the season. A tropical wave which is now about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands has become well organized, and a reconnaissance flight was sent out this afternoon to investigate. At 6 pm, the Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, which indicated that the system is not yet ready to be classified as a tropical depression, but it could become so in the near future.

Another stormy area, in the southwestern Caribbean, has shown signs of organization, and it could develop further before it moves into Central America tomorrow.

An area of disorganized storm activity over Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to develop, but it could bring much-needed drought relief to parts of the Southeast with some locally heavy rains.

Tropical Storm Bertha Sets New Record

Longest-lived Atlantic July Tropical Storm

6:45 Update: More historical data included.

The National Hurricane Center announced this afternoon that Tropical Storm Bertha has set the record for the longest time as a named tropical cyclone during July in the Atlantic. At 12½ days, Bertha has exceeded the 12¼ days for storm #2 in 1916.

Claudette in 1979 originated on July 15 and lasted until July 29, but it was a tropical storm for only 2 brief periods during that time. It did make landfall on the southeast Texas coast, where it caused torrential rains, including a U.S. 24-hour record of 42 inches at Alvin, Texas. The flooding made Claudette the 10th costliest tropical storm in U.S. history up to that time, with damages of $400 million.

Bertha 1996 was also a long-lived storm. It became a tropical storm on the morning of July 5 and was a hurricane from the 7th through the 12th, when it made landfall. It quickly became extratropical, but it retained tropical storm force winds for several more days.

The longest-lived pre-July storm appears to be the would-have-been "B" storm of 1934. It originated in the far western Caribbean on June 4, looped around Central America, the Yucatan, and the Gulf of Mexico, and made landfall as a hurricane on the coast of Louisiana. It then went up the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, turned east to pass almost directly over the Washington, DC area and went back off the New Jersey coast and over Long Island and Cape Cod. Including the extratopical phase, it lasted 17½ days.

Although conditions have been favorable for intensification, Bertha remains a tropical storm with maximum winds of about 70 mph. It continues to move away from Bermuda on a north northeast track at about 9 mph, leaving behind extensive power outages.

As for Cristobal wannabe, the area of thunderstorms 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become less organized during the day, and the likelihood of tropical depression development has decreased.

Bertha Bothers Bermuda Cristobal Wannabe Waiting in Wings

5 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Bertha has now passed by Bermuda and is located about 65 miles northeast of the island. The strongest winds, however, will be moving over the area in the next couple of hours. Maximum winds are 70 mph, and the storm is moving north at a slightly faster pace, about 9 mph.

3 pm Update: A reconnaissance flight has found near hurricane-force winds in a rainband to the southwest of the center of Tropical Storm Bertha. This band will be moving over Bermuda in the next couple of hours, so the Tropical Storm Warning for the island has been extended to a Hurricane Watch. Winds have gusted as high as 68 mph at the airport.

Tropical Storm Bertha, with maximum winds of 65 mph, is moving northward at 7 mph as of 11 am this morning. The center of the storm is about 60 miles east southeast of Bermuda, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. Winds at Wade International Airport are currently 31 mph, gusting to 46 mph. Gusts as high as 55 mph have been reported. Elsewhere on the island, winds in excess of 60 mph have been observed. Several airlines have cancelled departures today.

The tropical wave which is now about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming more organized, and it could become a tropical depression at any time in the next day or so. If it becomes named, it would be called Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Bertha Bogs Down, Nears Another Record

Hurricane Bertha has diminished both in strength and forward motion over the weekend. It's now a tropical storm with maximum winds of 65 mph. After some meandering, Tropical Storm Bertha is now drifting generally north northwest at about 3 mph. The 11 pm position is about 160 miles southeast of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. The storm's passage slightly to the east is likely to bring some much-needed rain; as much as 2-4" could fall from the outer bands of the storm.

Jeff Masters reports in his blog that Bertha's 6 days as a hurricane make it the fourth longest-lived July hurricane. As a named storm for 10 days so far, however, it is almost certain to break the 12-day record for longest-lived July named storm.

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave far out in the Atlantic, about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands, is under favorable conditions for development. It could easily become tropically depressed at any time in the next couple of days.

Bertha Strengthens Slightly, Heads Into Lazy Weekend

Based on Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance reports, the 5 pm advisory put Hurricane Bertha's maximum winds at 90 mph; no significant short-term change is expected. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Bermuda.

The Category 1 storm's forward speed is only 5 mph. It's headed north northwest from a position 270 miles southeast of Bermuda. A gradual northward turn is still expected, but weak steering currents could lead to considerable meandering in the coming days.

This Just In

A page A1 above-the-fold article in today's high-fiber edition of WaPo contains the startling news, "EPA Won't Act on Emissions This Year". How shocking that a Republic-con administration of oil executives would take no action on CO₂! It took two staff reporters, plus two researchers, to figure this out? Where have you been the last eight years while this bunch of thugs has been giving the entire world the finger?

The EPA is releasing an Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking at 1:30 today.

Hurricane Bertha Slows Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda

Hurricane Bertha remains a Category 1 storm today with maximum winds estimated at 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Bertha has slowed its forward speed to 6 mph, heading northwest from a position about 310 miles south southeast of Bermuda. The first reconnaissance flight is scheduled into the storm later today.