Slight Respite from Humidity, But More Heat Ahead

Now

Hot, a little less humid. The brightness of the sunshine and the sharpness of the shadows are signs that drier air has been gradually filtering into the region. Dewpoints in the immediate metro area were in the low 60s by mid afternoon, although the southern fringes of the region were still at or near 70°. Meanwhile, the extra sun has helped push temperatures to 90° or above at nearly all locations; Dulles and National were both 91° at 4pm. The nearest thunderstorms on radar are scattered between Charlottesville and Richmond and along the Virginia Eastern Shore.

The heat is likely to build through the rest of the week as more humidity returns as well.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Hot. Skies will be mainly clear tonight with lows in the low 70s to near 70° downtown and in the mid to upper 60s in the burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny and hot with highs 90-94°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Depression 3 developed overnight and quickly became Tropical Storm Chantal north of Bermuda this morning. The storm has strengthened to maximum winds of 50 mph as it scoots off to the northeast on its way to brushing by Newfoundland early tomorrow. It is likely to lose its tropical characteristics in the next 24 hours.

The tropical wave now about 520 miles east of the southern Windward Islands was less organized this morning, but it still has the potential to become tropically depressed in the next couple of days.

Cool Guys

This week's episode of the WaPo's Secret Worlds of Summer series profiles the "Faces Behind the Freeze".

More Heat, Less Humidity, Some Light

Now

Warm, humid, widely scattered thunderstorms. Following yesterday's much-needed, if not exactly drought-busting rains (National 0.98", Dulles 0.54"), today's storm activity has been considerably lighter and mainly confined to east of I-95. National reported thunder for several hours and even some frequent lightning at mid afternoon, but no rain as of post time. A north to northeasterly wind indicates that the nearly stationary front is over the Eastern Shore and southeastern Virginia, but humidities are still quite muggy with dewpoints within a degree or two of 70°.

A few isolated storms are possible into the evening hours, then gradual clearing overnight. For the hotter and drier outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a tropical wave about 950 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This area shows some signs of organization and has the potential to develop more in the next couple of days.

Some more light is being shed on the issue of a possible hurricane/global warming link described in Chris Mooney's just-published book, "Storm World". The discussion continues with the publication today of a peer-reviewed paper, "Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend?" in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. This is a formal publication of data presented in a forum at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in January. The analysis by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Peter Webster of Georgia Tech indicates that there has been a significant increase (see chart to the right) in Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity in the last century.

In press reports (see AP, via WaPo), however, an NHC "official" is quoted as saying that the research is "sloppy science". The reason this is controversial is (1) the sample size is so small, even over 100 years, and (2) there have been major improvements in observational technology over that time, most notably aircraft reconnaissance beginning in 1944 and satellite surveillance in 1970. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center has some very interesting charts in a paper published in the May 1 issue of EOS, the Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. He shows, for example, that in the record-breaking season of 2005, storms were observed over nearly all of the Atlantic Ocean. In the previous record year of 1933, however, no storms were observed over the central Atlantic, where data was presumably much more limited.

Holland and Webster are not unaware of this possible effect and take it into account in their analysis. One point they make is that storms in the open ocean were less likely to be missed in the pre-satellite era because unsuspecting ships would accidentally encounter them. The most convincing argument, however, is that there are indeed several jumps in the storm frequency, but they occur at different points than the changes in technology.

This debate is likely to continue for a long time. Of all the possible connections to global warming, tropical cyclones are probably the most difficult to definitively analyze.

Chart by Steve Deyo, © UCAR

Anticipation: Keeping Us WaitingScattered afternoon and evening storms expected

** Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect Until 8 PM **

Now

Warm, humid, chance of thunderstorms. After days of anticipation of rain, humidity has crept up a little bit more overnight. A substantial area of thunderstorms moving southeastward from eastern West Virginia and the Maryland panhandle was keeping itself together, but weakening as it crossed I-81 by mid afternoon, giving the best prospect in recent days for some storms in the metro area. Temperatures are quite warm, exceeding 90° in most places shortly after noon, with some southern spots like Fredericksburg and Stafford reaching the mid 90s.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, chance of thunderstorms, some possibly severe. Based on the approaching area of storms, the chance of rain has increased to 50% through this evening. Some storms may be locally severe. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s downtown to the upper 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny, warm, and humid with highs 89-94° and a 30% chance of afternoon or evening thundershowers.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Under the Radar

It doesn't seem to have been reported in the press, but the aptly-named Rep. Flake of Arizona kept the vote on a science appropriations bill waiting on Thursday by submitting a series of amendments. Among them was one to remove $720K in funding for a Doppler radar system at the Meteorology Dept. of Valparaiso University in Indiana. According to his remarks, Mr. Flake apparently still believes as he was taught that

"the best way to tell the weather was to stick your arm out the window of the vehicle as we were going down a farm road."

The amendment was defeated by voice vote. See p. H8628 of the Congressional Record for details.

More Political Science

The Union of Concerned Scientists has announced the winner of the Scientific Integrity Editorial Cartoon Contest. The UCS web site has a handy alphabetical list by agency, including Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and NASA. Among the several NOAA examples of political interference are:

• Taking sides on the hurricane intensity issue
• Selective approval of global warming media interviews
• Requiring "minders" at interviews

Check out the new Hill Heat site for the latest news on Capitol Hill climate change activities.

More Mugginess

Now

Warm, a little more humid. Under the influence of southeasterly to southerly breezes, temperatures have returned to the 90° range in the Washington metro area with National reaching at least 90° and Dulles 92°. Humidity levels have also been generally higher today, although mid afternoon dewpoint readings were only in the low 60s in most places. On radar, shower activity is widely scattered and generally confined to the mountains of West Virginia.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, slight chance of showers. There is a very slight chance of an isolated shower through this evening. Overnight lows will range from the low 70s downtown to the upper 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be much like today with a slight chance (20%) of afternoon or evening thundershowers and highs 88-92°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topix

Palm Beach Post opinion columnist Frank Cerabino offered his take on the Proenza affair at the National Hurricane Center yesterday: "Complaining up a storm at the NOAA". Among his suggestions for improving the work environment:
"8 - 9 a.m. - Bagels, cage-free omelets made to order and fresh brewed Colombian coffee flown in daily on a hurricane hunter plane.
9 - 9:30 a.m. - Sharing time. Staffers swap stories about children, or discuss highlights of TV shows from the previous evening."

DC: Deficits Continue

Now

Warm, a little more humid. Weak southerly flow both aloft and at the surface east of the low pressure area stuck over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is bringing in slightly more humid air this afternoon. Temperatures in the mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are not oppressive for late July, however. Shower activity is extremely spotty through the entire Mid Atlantic region.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, slight chance of showers. Humidity will continue to gradually increase through tomorrow. After a slight chance of showers through this evening, lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70° downtown and in the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be a little warmer with highs 86-90° and a slight chance (20%) of afternoon or evening thundershowers.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Precipitative Poverty

The 60-day map of precipitation percentage of average from the National Weather Service shows widespred areas of 25-50% (dark orange) across the region. Through central Loudoun Co., much of southern Maryland, and the Northern Neck of Virginia, red areas indicate only 10-25% of average.

Tropical Topix

The National Hurricane Center has implemented a new Experimental Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook.

Yesterday's WaPo Federal Diary reviewed the recent management turmoil at the National Hurricane Center. Diarist Stephen Barr astutely notes, "the NOAA team found that problems at the hurricane center run deeper than any concerns about [ousted former Director] Proenza." The agency report says,

"Simply replacing the director will not resolve the center's workplace issues. If staff morale and long-standing organizational issues are not addressed, they will hinder the center's longer-term ability to accomplish its mission."

Mediarology

The Weather Channel's "Heat Week" continues tonight on Abrams and Bettes and Evening Edition.

Summer Reruns

Now

Sunny, cooler, much less humid. The weather sometimes goes in cycles. Here's the PM Update from exactly one month ago: "The cold front which passed through in the early morning hours has brought with it sunny, cooler, and less humid conditions for the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low to mid 80s, dewpoints were in the much more comfortable 50s, and a refreshing northwesterly breeze was gusting to 25 mph at times."

Those words apply equally well today. At post time, National and Dulles are both at 84°, and the dewpoints are New-England-like 52° and 49° respectively. Even the light rainfall amounts from the frontal passage were comparable, although the exact totals this time were: National 0.06", Dulles 0.08", BWI 0.00".

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Book Nook

As PM Update also posted exactly a month ago, Chris Mooney, author of the new book, "Storm World", will be at Politics and Prose tomorrow night at 6:00. The book is profiled in the latest Wired magazine and was recently reviewed in the LaTi and IHT. The author was interviewed about the book in the HouChro earlier this week.

Chance of Storms, Then Cooler Weekend Ahead Watch Out for Falling Googlenopes

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Effect until 10pm *

Now

Warm, humid, scattered thunderstorms. Yesterday's forecast indicated that the chance of showers would increase today, but for many places, that increase has only been from none to slim. A midafternon storm brought strong winds and some downed trees to areas south of the Beltway, but National picked up only 0.05" of rain, and even about 20 minutes of a heavy thunderstorm was good for just 0.07" at Dulles. In this part of MoCo just a few miles north of the Beltway, the rain was barely enough to dampen the ground, despite the grumble of thunder. In the storm to the south, Quantico reported a wind gust to 63 mph.

Temperatures, which had reached at least 92° at National before the storm, were mainly in the 70s by 4pm where it had rained.

There is a chance of thunderstorms through this evening. Tomorrow will be a transition day on the way to what until this very moment was a Googlenope: "spectacular July weekend weather".

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid, chance of showers, then turning cooler. The chance of showers or thunderstorms, some possibly severe, is 50% through this evening. Mostly cloudy and humid conditions will continue overnight with lows in the mid 70s downtown to some upper 60s in the 'burbs. Clouds will decrease tomorrow along with lower humidity and highs 84-87°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Geek Chic

Ever wonder what kind of gear Sue Palka has at home? Today's WaPo Home section is packed with information for the home weather geek, from basic gear to weather vanes and data sources, including "a mind-numbingly comprehensive and entertaining look at Washington's weather."

Political Science

Today's House hearing on the Proenza affair at the National Hurricane Center was mainly a snoozefest, adding little to what is already known on the subject. Adm. Lautenbacher was clearly much more at home in the Congressional spotlight than ousted Director Proenza, but hardly any new light was shed on what really occurred. Committee Republicans were so persistent in their party-line refrain of, "Nothing to see here but a personnel matter, just move on," that it just raised more questions about what might have been covered up. The Academy Award for Most Juvenile Whining goes to former committee chairman [Non-]Sensenbrenner, who repeatedly attempted to derail the proceedings at the outset with demands that Proenza not be allowed to testify because his prepared remarks were not submitted in advance. Failing that, he then demanded that the Admiral be allowed to pull rank by testifying first. For more of the tedious details, check out the Miami Herald, "Proenza defiant despite critical storm center report".