Upcoming Storm: A Mix, a Mess, or a Miss?

Now

Clear, seasonably cold. January is closing out the books on a cold note in the Washington metro area, with afternoon temperatures reaching only the low and mid 30s despite abundant sunshine; highs were 34° at National, 33° at Dulles and BWI. A storm system just beginning to organize itself along the Gulf Coast will bring increasing cloudiness and some wintry precipitation into the picture for tomorrow into Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, cold, some snow likely developing. Clouds will increase tonight with lows in the low to mid 20s. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy in the morning with some snow likely developing in the afternoon, highs around 35°.

Analysis

Not a lot has changed since Dan's early afternoon update, so I won't repeat his post. The latest models have continued to support the notion of a storm track suppressed to the south of the Mid Atlantic area. Although there are some differences in the intensity of the storm development, both major U.S. models keep the heaviest precipitation from central and southeastern Virginia southward, where it would be mostly in liquid form. At this point, the observed storm system is extremely weak, and the models don't provide a lot of upper air energy support, so any major development is likely to take place well offshore, after precipitation has ended in this area. We're adjusting our snow accumulation potential chart to reflect the likelihood of lower amounts.

For the details of the rest of the week and the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

CapitalWeather.com chart, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Mediarology

Reliable sources tell us Larry King (CNN, 9pm) is scheduled to be focusing on climate change tonight. Expected guests: Inhofe, Boxer, Cullen.

Capitol Climate

Yesterday's House and Senate hearings on global warming policy were reviewed in a WaPo article today, "Lawmakers on Hill Seek Consensus on Warming". PM Update's favorite quote, from committee chairman Waxman: "All of us have a right to our own opinions as to the seriousness of global warming. We don't have the right to our own science."

Also covering the subject, among about 550 others, were the SF Chron, AP (via BoGlo), NYT, ChiTri, LATi, UK Guardian, Reuters, and the Financial Times.

A Flurry of Interest

Now

Variable cloudiness, seasonably cold. Southerly winds ahead of a "clipper" low pressure system moving eastward from the Great Lakes have pushed temperatures into the seasonable lower 40s this afternoon, despite considerable cloudiness at times. A band of snow showers extending from just north of the Mason-Dixon line southwestward to the West Virginia panhandle gave a trace of precipitation to Hagerstown and was moving into Frederick at mid afternoon. This band is likely to provide some scattered flurries to the Washington metro region, especially the northern portions through Baltimore and northeastern Maryland. A new cold shot will follow tonight into tomorrow, with the likelihood of some mixed precipitation later in the week.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Scattered flurries, turning colder. After a 30% chance of snow flurries through this evening, skies will clear later tonight with lows in the low 20s downtown to the upper teens in the 'burblands. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 30s.

Looking Beyond

This afternoon's models, while still waffling on the details, are confirming the likelihood that a projected storm for Thursday into Friday is likely to be a mixed precipitation event, with some accumulation of snow and ice possible. The exact track and precipitation amounts from a storm which doesn't yet exist have varied from run to run, but one factor which has been quite consistent since at least late Saturday is the lack of a mechanism to hold enough cold air in place and in enough depth for a significant all-snow event in this area, although some might consider any measurable amount to be significant at this point in the season. (For the model-watchers out there, don't forget when looking at a 2-dimensional map that the atmosphere is a dynamically evolving 3-dimensional compressible fluid. Just reading off green shading and red and blue lines at a point in time doesn't give the whole picture.)

For the details of the rest of the week and the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Capitol Climate: "Atmosphere of Pressure"

The House Oversight and Government Reform committee hearing on government climate science integrity opened this morning with a bipartisan complaint from both Chairman Waxman and Ranking Member Davis of Virginia that the Administration did not fully comply with the committee's request for documents. C-SPAN cut away from the hearings for the House session, but promised to broadcast the hearings later; check your listings. The prepared testimony from the witnesses is posted on the committee web site.

On the Senate side, the Committee on Public Works held a hearing today to provide a "Senators' Perspectives on Global Warming". Twelve Senators were confirmed to present their views on the subject.

C-SPAN-3, the "Oldies Channel", is scheduled to re-broadcast several old speeches and hearings on climate change, beginning tonight at 8:00.

Watching a Wintry Washington Week

Now

Sunny, cold. A weak low pressure wave which gave some scattered snow flurries to the region yesterday, mainly to the east of the metro area, deepened rapidly well offshore to help pump in colder temperatures today. Readings struggled to reach freezing in most locations with a brisk northwesterly breeze; highs were 33° at National, 32° at Dulles, 31° at BWI.

The month has now dropped out of the top 10 warmest Januaries. As Jason has already noted, this week is likely to be the coldest so far this season, with at least one chance of some wintry precipitation later in the week.

Surface weather map at 7am today from HPC/NCEP/NWS shows a deep low off the Atlantic coast

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear and cold, then slight chance of flurries. Tonight will be mostly clear and cold with diminishing winds. Lows will be near 20 in the city to the mid teens in the 'burblands. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and continued cold with a 30% chance of snow flurries, mainly late in the day, highs near 37°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the Snow Lover's Crystal Ball, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Capitol Climate

The House Oversight and Government Reform committee is holding a hearing tomorrow "regarding political interference in the work of government climate change scientists." The witness list includes a NASA scientist, a former staff member at the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, the Director of the Scientific Integrity Program of the Union of Concerned Scientists, and science policy researcher Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. of the University of Colorado. Montgomery County Congressman Chris Van Hollen is a member of the committee.

Freshly Frozen Friday

Now

Partly cloudy, cold. As advertised, the arctic attack last night was sharp, but it was a glancing blow to the Mid Atlantic area. Lows in the teens (15° at both National and Dulles) were the coldest so far this season, but winds shifting to a more southerly direction by noon have allowed readings to rebound to freezing or slightly above (still about 10° below average). The high of 33° means that we have still had only 1 day with a high at or below 32° this month, compared with the 30-year average of 5.2. Tomorrow's mildness will also be short-lived, however. The next icy blast looks longer-lasting, but less intense locally, at least to begin with.

Temperature chart at 7am today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Not as cold. Skies will be mostly to partly cloudy tonight with lows in the mid 20s downtown and near 20° in the outer 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and seasonably mild with highs in the upper 40s.

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Climate Corner

The draft report of the IPCC, scheduled to be released next Friday, continues to leak like a Greenland moulin. ABC News reported it had obtained a copy of the draft. ABC (Australia) also covered the story: "UN panel strengthens climate warning". Reuters distributed a report, "Warming to raise seas for 1,000 years". Where is the Paper of Watergate? So far, the only hit on a search of "IPCC" at the WaPo is for the online AP story we linked to a few days ago.

The political noise machine is predictably already gearing up for full attack mode. The Letters section of the noted science journal West Salem Coulee News is also chiming in.

Mediarology

Last Sunday's Climate Code on the Weather Channel (at its new time of 5:30) featured a survey of the 10 greenest large cities in the U.S. from SustainLane. Your Nation's Capital is number 12 in the rankings, one position behind Charm City. The program is repeated tomorrow evening at 5:30, 7:30 and 11:30.

14K Cold

Now

Scattered flurries, cold. The scattered flakes flying around the Washington metro area today created a flurry of interest, but not much else, in this snow-starved season. To the west, a couple of inches were reported over the ridges. Temperatures leveled out at mid afternoon in the upper 30s as Arctic air settled in over the region; technically, the high was 39° near midnight. (Friendly memo to Topper: Your presentation at 11pm of temperatures falling all day had PM Update scratching its head wondering what it had missed yesterday.)

The more "industrial strength" chill, as described by Bob R, moves in overnight, although considering the quick rebound likely on Saturday, it seems to be more of the "home office" variety. Another, stronger icy blast is in the pipeline for late weekend arrival.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Flurries possible, clearing, colder. A few scattered flurries are possible (30% chance) as temperatures continue to fall overnight, with lows near 20° in the city and low to mid teens in the 'burbosphere. Tomorrow will be sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 20s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

It's All Relative

Recent temperatures have been much more January-like, and there is more of that on tap, but the fact remains that, with only a week remaining, the month has yet to put together a string of more than 3 consecutive below-average days. Although it won't last, the earlier warm readings have kept the month to date average of 43.4° in the top 10 of all Januaries in Washington. Heating degree days, a measure of the amount of fuel required for heating, are down 28% from average.

As noted in yesterday's Today in Weather History, the long-term averages have now begun their gradual climb toward the annual peak in August. For the snow lovers, however, there's still February to look forward to.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Threat Level: Elevated for Cold

Now

Variable cloudiness, seasonably cold. After some scattered flurries, temperatures have peaked out near 40° in the Washington metro area. Colder and drier air will be moving in late tomorrow and into Friday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, turning colder. Mostly cloudy skies tonight will give way to more sunshine tomorrow afternoon as colder air filters into the region. There is a chance of scattered flurries as the cold air moves in. Lows tonight will be from near 30° downtown to the mid and upper 20s in the 'burbosphere. Highs tomorrow will be near 37°, but turning colder late in the day and at night.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Hollywood Report

"An Inconvenient Truth" has been nominated for an Academy Award in the documentary category. The movie trailer is available online in Google Video, along with several other related videos. (Flash 7 or higher required, running time 1:37). See the 50-foot wall of water crush New York . . . Not!

Weather Humor

The Weather Channel, specifically, the Climate Code, was cited as the #1 item in the Colbert Report Threatdown last night, beating out even CNN, for reporting the truth about a phony Barack Obama story, and the "tree-huggers" of "The Wizard of Oz". The reason, of course, was its hidden agenda: Bears!

Video is available at ComedyCentral.com. (Look for the Threatdown Media Edition.) For TiVo fans, the segment begins at 0:13 of the show. The program is repeated tonight at 8:30. Make your own weather Threatdowns and submit them via the image upload function of the Comments section. The most humorous will appear in a future PM Update.

The Onion reported this story in its Jan. 24 Daily Dispatch:

Northeast Stunned By Freak January Snowfall
SYRACUSE, NY--"I've seen some freak weather, but this definitely tops them all," said area resident Mary Baloh, whose garden was slightly set back by the 1.5-inch snowfall.

Sunday's Snow Mostly Memory

Now

Sunny, seasonable. Temperatures have been very near seasonable averages in the Washington metro area under partly cloudy skies this afternoon after some scattered light flurries this morning. Conditions will remain similar through tomorrow as the next cold shot prepares to arrive for the end of the week.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, seasonably cold. Skies will be partly cloudy through tomorrow with lows tonight in the upper 20s downtown to the low 20s in the 'burbosphere. There is a slight chance of scattered flurries through tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow: around 40°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Sunday's Snow

Sunday's snow event was forecast very well by CapitalWeather.com, based on reports submitted by commenters. For a map of submitted reports, see here. Official reports were: National 1.2", Dulles 1.6", BWI 0.9". Pictures of the event uploaded by site visitors are available at Flickr. Thank you, submitters!

One Degree of Separation

With the release in 10 days of the long-awaited IPCC climate report, leaks have already begun on its contents. An AP report, headlined "Report has 'smoking gun' on climate", has been widely published today, including in the silicon-based WaPo. The NYT also had a piece, "New Warnings on Climate Change" by environmental reporter Andrew Revkin on Saturday. The radical contrarians should be delighted to hear that the draft report says it is only somewhat more than "90 percent likely that global warming since 1950 has been driven mainly by the buildup of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases."

Transcripts and audio files of a briefing last week on the background to the IPCC report are available at the National Environmental Trust web site.

Meanwhile, one of the USA Today Weather Guys, an AMS Seal holder, has published a remarkably non-paranoid (meaning for this issue, not for him) post on the Heidi Cullen "controversy". Andrew's Undercast posted yesterday got a tip of the Rabett ears from the somewhat mysterious, but very insightful, Prof. Rabett, to whom we linked last week on the global warming/El Niño issue. Also showing considerable insight are the comments to Andrew's post from Brian of Erie.

Today's WaPo has a front-page article discussing how "Internal Rifts Cloud Democrats' Opportunity on Warming".