Early Spring Sets New Temperature Records From Minnesota to Maine, Into Canada 122-Year Marks Smashed

March 19 Update: Toronto has broken the high temperature record for March 19; as of 4 pm EDT, the temperature is 19°C:
High of 18 breaks Toronto warm weather record

The temperature of 16°C at Ottawa also smashes the record of 12.4°C in 1986.

Image (click to enlarge): High temperatures for March 17, from Unisys

Evening Update: More records on March 18:

Wausau WI    62 (61, 1918/1903)
Rochester MN 60 (tied 1945) 

Toronto's period of record (1938-2009) is somewhat shorter, but today's high temperature of 18°C was just short of the record 18.9°C. in 1966. Tomorrow's forecast high temperature of 18°C, if it occurs, will easily break the record of 14.2°C set on March 19, 1986.

Several Canadian locations set records on March 17 (Canada basks in record high temperatures). Records were set in Montreal, Ottawa, and Halifax as well as in places as far apart as Manitoba and New Brunswick. So far, March has been the warmest on record in many places following a very warm winter.

Original post:


2 PM Update: Added records for New York, Maine

Early spring warmth has set or tied daily temperature records across the northern Midwest, New York, and New England in the past week. New records reported by the National Weather Service include (old record and date in parentheses):

March 17
Sault Ste. Marie MI 58 (56, 1946)
Massena NY          61 (59, 1990)
Portland ME         64 (62, 1990)
Bangor ME           62 (tied 1936)
Caribou ME          54 (45, 2007)
Houlton ME          55 (tied 1936)

March 16
Sault Ste. Marie MI 62 (56, 2003)
Bangor ME           60 (58, 1927)
Caribou ME          57 (48, 1971)
Houlton ME          56 (52, 1973)
Millinocket ME      59 (54, 1946)

March 15
Duluth MN           60 (57, 1995)
Sault Ste. Marie MI 63 (52, 1990)
Caribou ME          54 (51, 1977)

March 14
Eau Claire WI          66 (65, 1973)
Minneapolis MN         64 (62, 1878/1973/1990)
International Falls MN 54 (tied 1911)
Caribou ME             51 (50, 1996)

March 13
Sault Ste. Marie MI 62 (58, 1995)
Sault Ste. Marie MI 44 (38, 1946/1929) record warmest minimum

March 11
Sault Ste. Marie MI 50 (47, 2007)
Sault Ste. Marie MI 41 (39, 1902) record warmest minimum

March 9
Sault Ste. Marie MI 55 (49, 1898/2000)

Note that Sault Ste. Marie has set 5 records in the last 7 days. Only 2 days in February were below average, and none in March. The last 8 consecutive days have each been at least 20° above average. The monthly average for March through the 17th is an amazing 16.7° above average. The long-term average for this time of year is a low of 15 and a high of 32. Records began at Sault Ste. Marie in 1888.

Caribou has also had only 2 days below average since Feb. 1. Every day except one from Feb. 8 through March 8 was at least 10° above average. February overall averaged 10.7° above average, and March is continuing to average the same amount of warmth.

Image (click to enlarge): March 2010 daily temperatures at Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan from National Weather Service

Washington Weathercaster Revolving Door Continues to Spin

The churn in the local broadcasting market fed by falling revenues has brought another new face to Washington weathercasting. Following the recent departure of veteran meteorologist Bob Ryan, the 11 pm report on WRC-TV, Channel 4, last night was delivered by Justin Drabick. Drabick's presentation showed a familiarity with local geography undoubtedly acquired during an early career spent on Maryland's Eastern Shore.

After graduation in 2004 from Millersville University, he spent 5 years at WMDT, Channel 47, the ABC affiliate in Salisbury. In December, he moved to WBOC, the Salisbury CBS/Fox affiliate broadcasting on channels 16 and 21. Drabick holds a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist seal from the American Meteorological Society.

Image: Justin Drabick from Flickr

Justin Drabick's first broadcast on WBOC-TV from YouTube:

U.S. Temperature Review: 29th Coldest February Caps 18th Coldest Winter

See here for other seasonal weather posts.

The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) preliminary analysis, posted last week, shows that U.S. February 2010 average temperatures were the 29th coldest out of 116 years of records. Meteorological winter (December 2009-February 2010) was the 18th coldest.

Nationwide, the average temperature was 32.4°F, or 2.2° below the long-term average in February. The coldest temperatures relative to average were across much of the Deep South. Temperatures were also below average in the Plains and Mid Atlantic area. For the South and Southeast, it was the 7th coldest February. Southern states which had their top 10 coldest Februaries included:

• 4th coldest: Florida
• 5th coldest: Louisiana
• 6th coldest: Alabama, Georgia, and Texas
• 7th coldest: Arkansas
• 8th coldest: Mississippi, South Carolina

In the Mid Atlantic region, both Maryland and Virginia had their 20th coldest February. Delaware had its 23rd coldest, and it was the 16th coldest for West Virginia.

The warmest readings were found in the Pacific Northwest and northern New England. States having top 10 warmest Februaries were:

• 3rd warmest: Maine
• 5th warmest: New Hampshire
• 6th warmest: Washington

Images (click to enlarge): U.S. February average temperature since 1895, statewide temperature ranks for February 2010 and winter 2009-2010 (December-February); from NCDC

Spring Storm Registers Record Rainfall

Image (click to enlarge): Southern New England 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, March 15, 2010, from National Weather Service

March 15 PM Update: More record reports:

Boston blew away its record for March 14 with 3.40", far exceeding the 1.93" in 1958. This was also only slightly below the all-time March daily record rainfall of 3.49" on March 18, 1968, making it the second wettest March day in Boston history. The last time a 3" calendar day rainfall occurred in Boston was on May 13 and 14, 2006.

Worcester's 1.75" broke the March 14 record of 1.39" in 1986.

Portland, Maine had 2.27", breaking the record of 2.17" in 1951.

Providence tied its record for March 14 with 1.28".

Image (click to enlarge): Mid Atlantic region 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, March 14, 2010, from National Weather Service

March 14 PM Update: The daily rainfall record at Philadelphia was extended to 2.57". Here are some other new daily rainfall records for March 13 (old record and date in parentheses):

Mt. Pocono PA   1.04" (1.00", 1920)
Newark NJ       3.99" (2.71", 1993)
Central Park NY 3.86" (2.61", 1953)
La Guardia NY   2.88" (2.38", 1993 & 1953)

The new record for Newark is almost 50% above the old one, and it also sets a new all-time daily record for March since daily data began in 1929. The 2.42" at Islip, NY was just short of the 2.49" measured in 1984.

Original post:
A massive spring storm moving slowly along the Atlantic Coast is bringing some record rainfalls to the Mid Atlantic region:

• As of 4 pm, the daily rainfall of 2.30" at Philadelphia had already broken the March 13 record of 1.91" set in 1984.
• Also as of 4 pm, the 2.24" at Baltimore (BWI) was close to the 2.45" associated with the 11.3" of snow in the superstorm of 1993. An additional 0.08" fell in the following hour, bringing the daily total to 2.32".
• The 1.93" at Martinsburg, WV yesterday broke the March 12 record of 1.83" set in 1968.

In the immediate Washington DC area, amounts have been somewhat lighter, with 0.50" so far at Washington National and 0.21" at Dulles.

Retail Details: Don't Blame the Weather!

Despite snowstorms hammering the Mid Atlantic, Northeast, and even parts of the South in February, retail sales figures announced today were much better than expected, up 0.3% (0.8% excluding autos):



From the high-fiber media:

• Associated Press: Retail sales rise unexpectedly in February
• Financial Times: US retail sales show surprise rise
• Business Week: Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in February
• Wall St. Journal: Retail Sales Post Strong Gain
• WaPo: MIA

Winter 2009-2010 Snowfall Review

For related posts, see:

• Record Snow
• Washington DC Weather Records
• Winter Weather

The Washington, DC 2009-10 snowfall season kicked off on December 5 with a slushy mess; officially, only 0.2" of frozen precipitation was measured. This was followed 2 weeks later by a record-setting storm on the 18th-19th. The 15" on the 19th broke the December daily record, and the storm total of 16.4" pushed the monthly total to a new December record of 16.6". After peaking at 16", snow depth on the ground declined rapidly in the following week, disappearing by the 26th.

Except for 1" on the 8th, January remained virtually snowless until the 30th, when 6.4" fell. The monthly total was slightly more than 1" above average.

The bulk of the winter's snow total fell in February. The 3.3" on the 2nd-3rd was quickly followed by 17.8" on the 5th-6th. This storm was the 4th largest of all time in Washington and the 2nd biggest at the current National Airport location.

Another 10.8" was reported in the blizzard of Feb. 9-10. The additional snow from this storm set the all-time seasonal snowfall record at all 3 major Washington area reporting locations (Washington National, Dulles, and Baltimore BWI). After peaking at 21" on the 11th, the snow coverage was slow to melt, reaching a trace on the 23rd. The 22 days with measurable snow on the ground set a new modern record for February. Following the epic amounts of the first 10 days of the month, only 0.1" of snow fell on each of the 15th and 27th.

Although March snowfall in Washington is rare, it's far from unprecedented (see "Not the March of the Penguins"). In fact, 7 out of the other 10 biggest snow seasons in Washington had significant measurable snow in March (an 8th one, 2002-03, had 0.1"). So, despite the statistical odds against it, there is still a possibility of extending the record seasonal total.

Given the excessive snowfall this winter, it seems like a good time to revisit an analysis from 4 years ago on the relationship between snowfall and temperature. The chart to the right shows the February monthly snowfall plotted vs. the average temperature. When the data for the last 6 years through 2010 are included, the relationship actually weakens: The percentage of variance in the snowfall accounted for by temperature declines from 25.1% to 24.5%.

Notice how far off the trend line the point for 2010 is located. In fact, all 5 of the Februaries with snowfall over 20" are significantly warmer than their snow amounts would indicate. Out of the 140 years of records, February 2010 was as warm as, or warmer than, 36 of them. In other words, over 25% of previous Februaries were equal to or colder than this year's.

Images (click to enlarge):

• Washington, DC 2009-10 daily snowfall (blue bars) and snow depth on the ground (green-shaded area)
• Top seasonal snow totals by month
• February average temperature vs. total monthly snowfall, 1888-2010

CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data, background photo © Kevin Ambrose (permission to reproduce granted under Creative Commons License provided full attribution is made with linkage to this web page)

Winter 2009-2010 Temperature Review

Following a very warm November, Washington, DC temperatures remained above average into the first few days of meteorological winter 2009-10 (December-February). The peak of 13° above average was reached on December 3, when 65° was observed, the second-highest of the winter. Temperatures cooled toward the middle of the month; the coldest day was the 19th at 12° below average. The coldest minimum was 23° on the 30th. December overall was 1.6° below average, the coldest since 2005, but the average of 37.9° was well above the 31.8° in 2000.

A cold first half of January was counter-balanced by a warmer second half. Although temperatures turned cold again for the last 3 days, the month averaged 0.4° above the long-term mean. This made it the most nearly normal January in nearly a quarter of a century. The warmest day was the 25th at 22° above average. The day's high of 68° was the warmest of the winter, but 7° below the record for the date. The 3rd and the 30th were tied for coldest of the month at 14° below average. The lowest minimum was 16° on both the 3rd and 31st.

Cold temperatures persisted into February, which was the coldest month of the winter. Readings were at or below average every day through the 18th. Following a slightly warmer than normal spell ending the 24th, temperatures cooled again through the end of the month, averaging 34.2°, which was 3.9° below normal. This was the coldest February since 2007, when the average was 30.9°. The warmest days, the 19th and 24th, were each only 2° above average, and the coldest was the 7th, which was 12° below. The warmest maximum was 50° on the 21st, and the coldest minimum was 16° on the 7th.

In the longer term, given that both December and February were below average, the winter overall averaged 1.7° colder than the long-term mean. This was slightly colder than the -1.5° departure in 2004, but only half as much as the -3.5° in 2003. Including September and October, 4 out of the last 6 months since the beginning of fall have been below average.

Following last winter's minimal -0.2° departure, this was the second winter in a row to be colder than average, but only the 2nd out of the last 6. Of the 11 winters so far this century, 5 have been colder than normal, but the overall winter average from 2000-2010 is 0.7° above normal.

Images (click to enlarge): Washington, DC daily, monthly, and seasonal temperature departures from average for: December 2009, January 2010, February 2010, January 2009-February 2010, winter 2000-2010; CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data (permission to reproduce granted under Creative Commons License provided full attribution is made with linkage to this web page)