Dolly Dying Last Advisory Issued on Tropical Storm

Another July tropical record falls

The last National Hurricane Center advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly was issued this afternoon, and the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression. Maximum winds were 35 mph as it continued moving west northwest at 14 mph. Although the wind circulation has weakened, the remnants of Dolly will continue to generate very heavy rains and flooding through Friday in southern Texas and northeastern Mexico.

With the 4.5 days Dolly was a named storm, 3.75 days from Cristobal, and 17.25 days from Bertha, this July has had a total of 25.5 named storm days. This breaks the record for July tropical storm activity of 25.25 set in 2005.

Tropical Storm Dolly Continues to Organize

Tropical Triple Sets Another July Record

11 pm Update: Watches have been upgraded to Warnings for Mexican and Texas coasts.

Tropical Storm Dolly continues to become better organized in the Gulf of Mexico. Although the strength remains level with maximum winds of 50 mph, an increase in intensity remains likely in the next 24 hours. Watches remain in effect for the northern Mexican and southern Texas coasts. Movement is to the west northwest at 18 mph, but a gradual decrease in speed is expected.

Latest satellite image of Dolly from Wunderground.com

The Associated Press reports that the governor of Texas has activated 1200 National Guard troops and other emergency personnel in southern Texas.

Cristobal continues to move northeast, away from the coast, at 13 mph; a turn to a more easterly direction is forecast. Maximum winds are 65 mph with some weakening predicted by late tomorrow.

Jeff Masters in his WunderBlog says that the tropical triple of Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly on the 19th set a record for the first time there were 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic on the same day in July. He probably meant to refer to the 20th (Sunday).

Bye-Bye Bertha; Hello Dolly

The stormy area moving westward across the Caribbean in recent days has evolved into the fourth named storm of this young tropical season. Based on aircraft reconnaissance, Tropical Storm Dolly has maximum winds of 45 mph as of 5 pm Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Dolly for the Yucatan Peninsula from the Mexico/Belize border to Campeche. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Belize from Belize City northward. The storm is moving northwest at 14 mph. The forecast track takes Tropical Storm Dolly across Yucatan tonight and into the southern Gulf of Mexico tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to move on a track parallel to the North Carolina coast. Maximum winds remain near 45 mph, and little change in strength is forecast. A Tropical Storm Warning for Cristobal is in effect from Cape Lookout, NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border.

The last tropical advisory was issued on Tropical Storm Bertha this morning as it became a strong extratropical storm with winds still at 70 mph. It continues to head northeast toward Iceland at the rapid rate of 36 mph.

Bertha Back to Hurricane Strength

Tropical Storm Bertha strengthened today back to hurricane force, with maximum winds of 75 mph. Hurricane Bertha is now moving more rapidly, at 22 mph to the northeast. This track is expected to continue with increasing speed as Bertha begins to lose tropical characteristics over the weekend. The current forecast path has Bertha approaching Iceland as an extratropical storm early next week.

Meanwhile, a couple other areas are being watched for possible tropical development. The thunderstorm activity off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina has continued to increase, and a reconnaissance flight is tentatively scheduled for tomorrow. The low pressure area now moving westward through the central Caribbean has not become any better organized, but a reconnaissance flight was sent there this afternoon. Both of these areas have the potential to become tropical depressions in the near future.

The Jamaica Meteorological Service issued a statement this afternoon warning of the possibility of flash flooding and gale force winds.

Image: Hurricane Bertha from International Space Station, via NASA.

Bertha Bears Down on Top Ten

As Tropical Storm Bertha continues to move away from land in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has pointed out that it could become one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical storms in history if it survives to the weekend. Extracted from the NHC historical database, here are the 10 all-time longest-lived storms (in calendar days) from depression through extratropical stage:

Year Days Storm
1899 33 NOT NAMED
1971 30 GINGER
1969 26 INGA
1926 23 NOT NAMED
1957 23 CARRIE
2000 23 ALBERTO
2002 23 KYLE
2004 23 IVAN
1893 21 NOT NAMED
1966 21 INEZ

Bertha originally became a tropical depression on July 3. The storm is now located about 450 miles east northeast of Bermuda. After moving southeastward for a while, it's now moving east at a faster rate of 12 mph. Maximum winds are around 60 mph, and little change in strength is expected.

Elsewhere, a low pressure area which has now moved westward into the southeastern Caribbean has shown increased thunderstorm activity, and an aircraft reconnaissance flight was scheduled to investigate it this afternoon.

Closer to home, the stormy area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico yesterday has moved across Florida and now about 75 miles east of Jacksonville. It has a moderate chance to develop as it drifts slowly northward.

Bertha Barrels On: Day 14

Described by the National Hurricane Center as a "powerful system with a large wind field", Tropical Storm Bertha continued churning generally eastward in the Atlantic today. Maximum winds are about 70 mph, and the storm has now turned to the southeast at 5 mph from a position about 360 miles northeast of Bermuda. A couple more days of tropical storm status are likely.

Elsewhere, the tropics remain active for this early in the season. A tropical wave which is now about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands has become well organized, and a reconnaissance flight was sent out this afternoon to investigate. At 6 pm, the Hurricane Center issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement, which indicated that the system is not yet ready to be classified as a tropical depression, but it could become so in the near future.

Another stormy area, in the southwestern Caribbean, has shown signs of organization, and it could develop further before it moves into Central America tomorrow.

An area of disorganized storm activity over Florida and the northeast Gulf of Mexico is unlikely to develop, but it could bring much-needed drought relief to parts of the Southeast with some locally heavy rains.

Tropical Storm Bertha Sets New Record

Longest-lived Atlantic July Tropical Storm

6:45 Update: More historical data included.

The National Hurricane Center announced this afternoon that Tropical Storm Bertha has set the record for the longest time as a named tropical cyclone during July in the Atlantic. At 12½ days, Bertha has exceeded the 12¼ days for storm #2 in 1916.

Claudette in 1979 originated on July 15 and lasted until July 29, but it was a tropical storm for only 2 brief periods during that time. It did make landfall on the southeast Texas coast, where it caused torrential rains, including a U.S. 24-hour record of 42 inches at Alvin, Texas. The flooding made Claudette the 10th costliest tropical storm in U.S. history up to that time, with damages of $400 million.

Bertha 1996 was also a long-lived storm. It became a tropical storm on the morning of July 5 and was a hurricane from the 7th through the 12th, when it made landfall. It quickly became extratropical, but it retained tropical storm force winds for several more days.

The longest-lived pre-July storm appears to be the would-have-been "B" storm of 1934. It originated in the far western Caribbean on June 4, looped around Central America, the Yucatan, and the Gulf of Mexico, and made landfall as a hurricane on the coast of Louisiana. It then went up the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys, turned east to pass almost directly over the Washington, DC area and went back off the New Jersey coast and over Long Island and Cape Cod. Including the extratopical phase, it lasted 17½ days.

Although conditions have been favorable for intensification, Bertha remains a tropical storm with maximum winds of about 70 mph. It continues to move away from Bermuda on a north northeast track at about 9 mph, leaving behind extensive power outages.

As for Cristobal wannabe, the area of thunderstorms 800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become less organized during the day, and the likelihood of tropical depression development has decreased.

Bertha Bothers Bermuda Cristobal Wannabe Waiting in Wings

5 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Bertha has now passed by Bermuda and is located about 65 miles northeast of the island. The strongest winds, however, will be moving over the area in the next couple of hours. Maximum winds are 70 mph, and the storm is moving north at a slightly faster pace, about 9 mph.

3 pm Update: A reconnaissance flight has found near hurricane-force winds in a rainband to the southwest of the center of Tropical Storm Bertha. This band will be moving over Bermuda in the next couple of hours, so the Tropical Storm Warning for the island has been extended to a Hurricane Watch. Winds have gusted as high as 68 mph at the airport.

Tropical Storm Bertha, with maximum winds of 65 mph, is moving northward at 7 mph as of 11 am this morning. The center of the storm is about 60 miles east southeast of Bermuda, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 140 miles. The Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Bermuda. Winds at Wade International Airport are currently 31 mph, gusting to 46 mph. Gusts as high as 55 mph have been reported. Elsewhere on the island, winds in excess of 60 mph have been observed. Several airlines have cancelled departures today.

The tropical wave which is now about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is becoming more organized, and it could become a tropical depression at any time in the next day or so. If it becomes named, it would be called Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Bertha Bogs Down, Nears Another Record

Hurricane Bertha has diminished both in strength and forward motion over the weekend. It's now a tropical storm with maximum winds of 65 mph. After some meandering, Tropical Storm Bertha is now drifting generally north northwest at about 3 mph. The 11 pm position is about 160 miles southeast of Bermuda. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. The storm's passage slightly to the east is likely to bring some much-needed rain; as much as 2-4" could fall from the outer bands of the storm.

Jeff Masters reports in his blog that Bertha's 6 days as a hurricane make it the fourth longest-lived July hurricane. As a named storm for 10 days so far, however, it is almost certain to break the 12-day record for longest-lived July named storm.

Meanwhile, an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave far out in the Atlantic, about 1500 miles east of the Windward Islands, is under favorable conditions for development. It could easily become tropically depressed at any time in the next couple of days.

Bertha Strengthens Slightly, Heads Into Lazy Weekend

Based on Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance reports, the 5 pm advisory put Hurricane Bertha's maximum winds at 90 mph; no significant short-term change is expected. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Bermuda.

The Category 1 storm's forward speed is only 5 mph. It's headed north northwest from a position 270 miles southeast of Bermuda. A gradual northward turn is still expected, but weak steering currents could lead to considerable meandering in the coming days.

Hurricane Bertha Slows Tropical Storm Watch for Bermuda

Hurricane Bertha remains a Category 1 storm today with maximum winds estimated at 85 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Bermuda. Bertha has slowed its forward speed to 6 mph, heading northwest from a position about 310 miles south southeast of Bermuda. The first reconnaissance flight is scheduled into the storm later today.

Weaker Hurricane Bertha Heading Northwestward

5 pm Update: Hurricane Bertha remains at Category 1, with maximum winds down slightly to 85 mph. It continues to move northwest at 10 mph from a position about 425 miles southeast of Bermuda. Bermuda remains within the large cone of uncertainty. The Small Craft Warning for Bermuda has been extended through Saturday. The forecast calls for conditions to "become increasingly unsettled this weekend as Bertha approaches."

After regaining Category 2 strength yesterday, Hurricane Bertha weakened back to Category 1 overnight. As of 11 am, maximum winds were 90 mph, and the storm was headed toward the northwest at 9 mph. It is now located a little less than 500 miles southeast of Bermuda, where a Small Craft Warning is in effect through Friday night. A gradual turn toward the north and slowdown in forward speed are still expected, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in the path and intensity, which could still strengthen in the next 24 hours.

Bertha Bounces Back

Hurricane Bertha has restrengthened this afternoon; it is now back up to Category 2 as of 5 pm, with max winds of 105 mph. Additional strengthening is expected, but with slow weakening after a couple of days. Movement is toward the northwest at 12 mph. A turn to the north is still forecast, but there is a large uncertainty in the future track.

Hurricane Bertha Fluctuating, Still Category 1

After weakening somewhat overnight, Hurricane Bertha is still a minimal Category 1 storm today with peak winds of 75 mph. Some increase in intensity is forecast in the short term, with weakening thereafter. The current track is toward the west northwest at 12 mph, but a gradual turn to a more northerly direction, along with a slowdown in forward speed, is expected. There is a great deal of ambiguity for both the path and the intensity, especially beyond 72 hours; the "cone of uncertainty" has evolved into a rather large circle.

Hurricane Bertha Weakens to Category 1

11 pm Update: Bertha is still Category 1, maximum winds of 80 mph. A gradual turn to the north is expected, but the forecast path has shifted slightly to the west.

Hurricane Bertha weakened further today and is now Category 1 with maximum winds of 85 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 12 mph, and a gradual turn to a more northerly direction is expected. As the storm weakens further, it should be a tropical storm as it moves southeast of Bermuda.

Hurricane Bertha Weakens; Still Category 2

Hurricane Bertha maintained Category 3 strength overnight, but weakened this morning to Category 2. At 11 am, maximum winds were 105 mph. More weakening is expected in the next 24 hours. The storm's track is now more toward the northwest, and the forecast has shifted the path further to the east of Bermuda.

Bodacious Bertha Category 3

Update (11 pm):Hurricane Bertha has increased to maximum winds of 120 mph as of the latest advisory. It continues to move toward the west northwest at 12 mph, but a gradual turn toward the northwest and north is still expected.

Correction (8:40 pm): The statistics on early season major hurricanes from the National Hurricane Center shown below apparently included only the Saffir-Simpson scale at landfall, so there were other occurrences, as well (for example, Emily became Category 3 on July 15, 2005). A more correct description of the list below would be: "All storms originating before August 1 which made landfall as Category 3 or higher since 1851." Clearly, that does not apply, at least yet, to the current case.

As of 5 pm, Hurricane Bertha is now classified as a major hurricane, Category 3, with winds up to 115 mph. It is continuing toward the west northwest at a decreased speed of 12 mph. A gradual turn toward a more northerly track is expected. Some fluctuation in intensity is likely in the next couple of days.

Except for Dennis in 2005, this is the first July Category 3 storm since Allen in 1980 and Celia in 1970, but these storms each formed originally on July 31. The previous earliest Category 3 or higher was Audrey in 1957.

All storms originating before August 1 reaching Category 3 since 1851 (from National Hurricane Center):
Date ---- NAME ---------- Saffir-Simpson scale
6 04 1934 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
6 25 1957 AUDREY . . . . .SSS=4
6 29 1916 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 04 2005 DENNIS . . . . .SSS=3
7 13 1909 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 27 1936 NOT NAMED . . . SSS=3
7 31 1970 CELIA . . . . . SSS=3
7 31 1980 ALLEN . . . . . SSS=3

Bertha Burgeoning: First Hurricane of 2008

At 5 am this morning, Tropical Storm Bertha became the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2008 season. It continues to exceed strength expectations with maximum winds increasing to 90 mph as of 11 am. It could reach Category 2 today or tonight. The track remains west northwest, but the forward speed has lowered to 15 mph.

Hurricane Bertha track from IBISEYE and Google Maps

Bertha Boogying Briskly; Some Strengthening Seen

Tropical Storm Bertha has strengthened today, with maximum winds now 60 mph. It continues to move west northwestward at a brisk pace, about 20 mph. The track should turn more northerly in the next couple of days, but there is still some disagreement among the models on the pace of that turn. Threats to land are still too early to determine, but the most likely target at this point, if any, would be Bermuda.

Bertha Gradually Strengthens

Tropical Storm Bertha is moving more westward than originally forecast and gradually strengthening. Maximum sustained winds are now 50 mph, and little change in strength is expected today, but it is forecast to become a minimal hurricane as it moves north of the Lesser Antilles in a few days.

Tropical Storm Bertha track from IBISEYE.