Disorganized Danny Diminishes Danger: Weak Tropical Storm Expected to Bypass East Coast

A low-pressure trough to the west has provided wind shear and dry air to keep Tropical Storm Danny at minimal strength. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance this afternoon indicates the storm's maximum winds remain at 40 mph with some higher gusts. After stalling earlier in the day, Danny was moving north at 6 mph from a position about 330 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of 5 pm.

A more north-northeasterly track and increase in forward speed is likely to take the storm east of the Outer Banks early Saturday and offshore of New England Saturday night, then near the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Some slight strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours, but the storm will be moving into an area of unfavorable conditions for development, and it is expected to lose its tropical characteristics within 36 hours.

Rainfall in excess of 80 mm is expected in portions of the Maritimes.

Image (click to enlarge): Tropical Storm Danny forecast track from National Hurricane Center; Rainfall forecast from The Weather Network

Danny Develops: Tropical Storm Potential Threat to East Coast

Tropical Storm Danny developed this morning from an area of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the Bahamas. The storm is expected to develop into a hurricane which could potentially threaten the East Coast within 3 to 5 days.

At 11 am EDT, the storm was moving west-northwest at 18 mph from a position about 775 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Forward speed is expected to decrease through tomorrow. Based on NOAA aircraft reconnaissance, maximum winds are 45 mph; some slow strengthening is possible in the next couple of days, and the storm could become a hurricane off the North Carolina coast.

The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a 30% or greater probability of tropical storm force winds along much of the East Coast from North Carolina northward.