Like a Stopped Clock, WaPo Finally Gets One Right

Despite a sorry history of giving excessive op-ed space to climate "experts" George Will and Bjorn Lomborg, the WaPo finally gets it right for once. In today's Outlook/used-to-be Book World section, Neil Irwin, an economics reporter, gives the authors of Superfreakonomics some of their own medicine (How Freakonomics got super, freaky and scary):

Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner are to blame for the global financial crisis.

See, back in 2005, they wrote "Freakonomics," a wildly successful book brimming with interesting stories about why incentives matter and how actions have unintended consequences. Indeed, incentives do matter, and actions (or publications) do have unintended consequences: Their book made economists around the world more inclined to come up with cute little analyses of the business of being a drug dealer or the impact of a first name on a child's success. And that distracted them, so they didn't notice the giant housing and credit bubbles that in hindsight were plain to see. A global collapse ensued.

More seriously, Irwin exposes the book's errors on prostitution and drunk walking before taking on the climate issue:

Both of those problems are mild compared with the ones in the penultimate chapter, in which the authors bring their oh-so-clever approach to the climate debate. The standard strategy for preventing potentially catastrophic global warming, one advanced by an overwhelming consensus of climate scientists and environmental economists, is to put in place policies to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide humankind emits. That's apparently too conventional for Levitt and Dubner, who spend the vast majority of their chapter (with time taken out for potshots at Al Gore) examining the work of scientist/entrepreneur Nathan Myhrvhold's crew, a group that is exploring the idea of pumping sulfur into the upper atmosphere and other neat tricks that just may be cheaper, easier ways to combat global warming.

It would be great if one of those schemes turns out to work. Fantastic, even. But Levitt and Dubner seem to simply presume that because one of them might work, Gore et al. are foolish to push to reduce emissions. It is like a family declining to save for college because their 10-year-old Little Leaguer with a decent arm may end up getting a full baseball scholarship.

This review follows closely after Elizabeth Kolbert's demolition of the book in the current New Yorker. Kolbert takes off from the Freakos' analysis of the 19th century New York horse manure crisis to conclude:

To be skeptical of climate models and credulous about things like carbon-eating trees and cloudmaking machinery and hoses that shoot sulfur into the sky is to replace a faith in science with a belief in science fiction. This is the turn that “SuperFreakonomics” takes, even as its authors repeatedly extoll their hard-headedness. All of which goes to show that, while some forms of horseshit are no longer a problem, others will always be with us.

Kolbert held an online discussion of the subject on November 11.

Climate Collapse: Fiction Fodder

Post-apocalyptic dystopias have long been a theme of science fiction, and the growing public awareness of global warming has recently been finding expression in fiction. A trilogy (Forty Signs of Rain, Fifty Degrees Below, and Sixty Days and Counting) by Kim Stanley Robinson, completed in 2007, was set in a climate-changed Washington, DC.

The latest example of the genre, Far North by Marcel Theroux, is reviewed in today's WaPo:

Marcel Theroux's homespun tale about a solitary frontier survivor conjures up a monolithic world that's ominous and deeply memorable. He depicts a bleak Earth transformed, perhaps a century or two from now, by global warming and a society reduced to a mostly empty, radioactive husk; the remnant peoples are violent, ignorant and few and far between. Against the gray backdrop of abandoned towns, poisoned cities and occasional wildlife, a tough, hardy frontierswoman named Makepeace struggles to eke out a living on the strange and swiftly changing land.

The book is being published Tuesday (June 9) in the U.S. after having been released in the U.K. in March; it was reviewed by the Telegraph and the Independent at that time. The book was also reviewed recently by Strange Horizons.

In March, the author was the host of a documentary about Japan on BBC, "In Search of Wabi Sabi":

Thomas Friedman: Geo-Greenism Giveaway The World Is Hot, Flat, and Crowded

New York Times columnist and book-writing machine Thomas Friedman has written a new book, to be published Sept. 8, focusing on the twin energy and climate crises and their interrelationships. Friedman has sometimes been criticized in the past for being too enthusiastic a cheerleader for globalization, overgeneralizing, extrapolating and exaggerating trends in such books as "The Lexus and the Olive Tree" and, most recently, "The World Is Flat". However, he is certainly an entertaining writer on crucially important topics. His previous books have been very popular; "The World Is Flat" was a #1 bestseller, and he has won three Pulitzer prizes and a National Book Award. (See ReviewsOfBooks.com for links to reviews of "The World Is Flat".)

The new book, called "Hot, Flat, and Crowded", is subtitled "Why We Need a Green Revolution - And How it Can Renew America". According to the promotional material,

Friedman proposes that an ambitious national strategy—which he calls "Geo-Greenism"—is not only what we need to save the planet from overheating; it is what we need to make America healthier, richer, more innovative, more productive, and more secure.

Of particular interest to meteorologists and climatologists interested in bringing the real science to a clearly confused public is this question raised in the discussion guide available on the author's web site:

In chapter five, Friedman describes the controversy that ensued when meteorologist Heidi Cullen tried to educate her audience about global warming. What is the best way to inform those who tune out such messages, which they believe are tantamount to “politicizing the weather”?

It remains to be seen, of course, whether Friedman "gets it" on the climate issue, but preliminary indications sound like the author is promoting the thesis long supported by this Climate Capitalist: "It's the economy, stupid." No matter what the wingnuts, ideologues, and crackpots want to believe about the Big Climate conspiracy, global warming is ultimately an economic issue. The global marketplace, if it's allowed to function without the current bias toward outmoded CO₂-generating technologies, will determine that the cost of inaction is much more than the cost of attacking the problem. If you don't believe that, how's your GM stock doing lately? Here's a clue, if you don't watch such things: GM recently hit a 50-year (not a typo) low.

As a promotion for Friedman's new book, the publisher is offering free downloads of the audiobook of "The World Is Flat" and a preview of "Hot, Flat, and Crowded" in exchange for signing up for their email newsletter. The offer is good only through next Monday, August 11.

Today's Friedman column, Learning to Speak Climate, is a dispatch from the front, so to speak; it's an account and interpretation of his viewing of glaciers in Greenland. The previous one was about a visit to an ice research center above the Arctic Circle.

Friedman earlier this year discussed climate change with the founders of Google. Last year, he was the keynote speaker at the MIT celebration of the publication of all MIT courses online through OpenCourseware. The introduction to the MIT lecture alludes to the 2003 Yale Commencement address which the Climate Capitalist attended. At the 2007 Aspen Ideas Festival, Friedman delivered the presentation "Green is the New Red, White, and Blue" (Part I, Part II, and Part III).

Colbert Conquers Carbon Conspiracy

Update: The Intersection science blog recently reviewed Roston's book.

Interview with author Eric Roston on last night's Report:

Mediarology: Six Degrees on NGC, AMS on iTunes, Challenger on TWC

New shows available in audio and video, online and on TV

Coming soon to the National Geographic Channel is Six Degrees Could Change the World, based on the book, Six Degrees, which was just released in the U.S. after being published last year in the U.K. The show premieres this Sunday, the 10th, at 8 p.m. DC time, 9 p.m. Pacific. Streaming videos are available on the show's web site.

The American Meteorological Society (AMS), the country's oldest and largest organization of professional meteorologists, has gone multimedia. There are now four programs in the AMS Video Journal series on the Research Channel. The full set of shows are also available in both audio and video format for downloading free of charge from iTunes. The AMS appears to be the first professional scientific society to appear on iTunes U, the educational section of Apple's podcast web site. The presentations currently available include:

Click here to read entire post.

551.5: Book Nook

551.5 is the Dewey Decimal System classification for meteorology.

In his post last weekend, Ground Truth, Andrew points out that seeing is believing: Because climate change "exists beyond our field of vision it's hard to be completely convinced of its existence, and therefore of the necessity of addressing it." Andrew Revkin expressed similar thoughts in his Dot Earth blog last month.

A new climate change book, published last year in the U.K., was released in the U.S. yesterday by National Geographic. It aims to address precisely that problem. Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, by Mark Lynas, takes the dry data and analyses of climate science and puts them into human terms by describing the specific effects of each degree of warming predicted in the current range of scenarios documented in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from 1°C to 6°C:

Click here to read entire post.

Counting Down to a Rain-Free RecordWeather music works its way up the charts

Now

Sunny, warm, a little more humid. With a large high pressure ridge still dominating, this afternoon's weather map shows virtually no rain anywhere east of the Mississippi. Here in the Washington metro area, bright sunshine and southerly breezes have pushed temperatures back into the 80s for the first time in a week; by 4pm, National was at 82°, 14° above average.

At post time, we are roughly 7 hours from tying the 1995 record of 33 consecutive days without measurable rain. Whether the streak lasts through tomorrow is a little more problematic, but the chances for precipitation look better for Friday. Fortunately, conditions in this area are not as dire as in large portions of the Southeast, where residents are "Facing Tough Choices".

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some clouds, warm. Clouds will be scattered to broken overnight with lows in the low 60s downtown and the mid and upper 50s in the 'burbs. Some mist or fog is possible in the early morning hours. Tomorrow will have increasing clouds in the afternoon but only a 30% chance of showers and continued warm temperatures, highs 76-79°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology

If you're bored watching grass die, the Discovery Channel premieres a new series tonight called "Storm Chasers". The show pairs up tornado researcher Dr. Josh Wurman and his Doppler on Wheels (featured in Nancy Mathis' book "Storm Warning") with an IMAX filmmaker and the TIV (Tornado Intercept Vehicle), which looks like it escaped from a steroid explosion at the BattleBot lab. The program is scheduled for 10pm on Wednesdays, with repeats Friday nights at 8 and midnight, Mondays at 10, and Tuesdays at 2am.

The Weather Channel CD compilation of Weather on the 8's smooth jazz, which Jason posted about yesterday, has risen to number 60 for sales in the music category and number 1 for jazz compilations at Amazon.

TIV photo from Discovery Channel

DC: Dehydration City

Now

Mostly sunny, hot, humid. Weather news hasn't taken a holiday for Columbus Day. The record heat was a factor in yesterday's Army Ten-Miler, although not as major as in Chicago, where the Marathon was shut down early.

In a repetition of a familiar pattern recently, however, this morning's haze and mist kept the noon temperature over 10° below yesterday's. On the other hand, by 4pm the 91° at Dulles had broken the record there by 6°, and several other regional reporting locations, including downtown Baltimore at 92°, had reached or exceeded 90° again. National had at least tied the record with 88°. At this point, we are only 3 days from the latest 90° ever recorded in Washington, on the 11th in 1919.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Very warm, humid. Tonight will again be warm and humid with lows in the upper 60s downtown to the low 60s in the 'burbs. Some morning clouds and fog will give way to mainly sunny skies in the afternoon tomorrow with highs near record levels at 86-91°. There is a very slight (20%) chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is watching an area of storminess in the northwestern Caribbean, but a reconnaissance flight was canceled today and tentatively rescheduled for tomorrow.

The WaPo science three-quarter page today features the experimental Aerosonde technology for investigating the lowest levels of a tropical storm more safely and more economically than by manned aircraft.

Image © Aerosonde Pty Ltd

Political Science

Yesterday's WaPo Outlook section gave the entire front page above-the-fold space to an op-ed by Bjorn Lomborg, "Chill Out", on the subject of climate change policy. "Who is Bjorn Lomborg?": The misinformation watchdog group Media Matters addressed this question when Lomborg was featured in the WaPo last spring. The scientific accuracy of Lomborg's recent book, "Cool It", was discussed in a WaPo review last month. For more analysis of Lomborg's credibility, including the filing of formal scientific dishonesty charges, see the critiques of climate scientists and a Danish biologist. Many of the (as of last count, 176) online comments to the piece are quite instructive, as well.

Same ol' Sol

Now

Mostly sunny, warm, humid. Probably one reason October is Matt's favorite month is that it has, on average, by far the highest number of clear days (10.7, over 10% higher than its nearest rival, September, although the month just ended had 15 clear days).

That's not the case today as persistent clouds overnight and even some morning drizzle have kept the low so far today to the balmy midnight reading of 68°. On the other hand, a more southerly than easterly wind has allowed an abundance of sunshine to push temperatures into the low and even mid 80s in some places this afternoon. Humidity has also increased; dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s are nearly 10° higher than yesterday.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid. Some low clouds and patchy fog are likely to form again tonight; lows will be in the mid 60s downtown to the upper 50s in the 'burbs. Any morning clouds should burn off in time to produce a mainly sunny day tomorrow with highs 83-87°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the Columbus Day weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

There are no active storms in the tropical Atlantic or eastern Pacific, but the National Hurricane Center is still keeping an eye on a low pressure area in the eastern Gulf. The reconnaissance flight scheduled for today was called off, but this system still has some potential for development. Meanwhile, another area a little east of the Bahamas is encountering more favorable upper level winds and could become a tropical depression in the next couple of days.

The Gray team at Colorado State have revised their hurricane season forecast (again).

Book Sale

Get 'em while they're hot: As a public service, we waive the usual Amazon referral fee to note that the Oxford University Press has several weather-related books in its Fall Sale:

• Oxford Dictionary of Weather
• Understanding Weather: A Visual Approach
• Hurricanes of the North Atlantic

None of these titles come with any recommendation from the management, staff, or advertisers of CapitalWeather.com, but this is a very well respected publisher, especially in the area of reference books.

Crowds of Clouds Create Capital Cooling

Now

Partly sunny, mild. A nearly stationary front extending northeastward off the Atlantic coast from a weak low pressure area in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has helped some cloudiness encroach westward into the National Capital region this afternoon. This has held temperatures down somewhat from earlier forecast levels. Mid afternoon readings were generally in the mid 70s, and humidity was a little higher with dewpoints near or a little over 60°. Precipitation on radar is confined to the southeastern corner of Virginia and eastern North Carolina. The main short-term forecast problem revolves around how persistent these clouds are likely to be.

Infrared satellite image at 3:40 this afternoon from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Considerable cloudiness, mild. Lows tonight under mostly cloudy skies will be generally in the low 60s, ranging to the upper 50s where fewer clouds persist, mainly to the west. Highs tomorrow under variable clouds will be 75-80°, but into the low 80s if more sun emerges.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

A reconnaissance flight this afternoon investigating the area of storminess near Florida (Jerry wannabe) found a weak circulation in the eastern Gulf of Mexico about 115 miles west-southwest of St. Petersburg. Thunderstorms, as shown on the Tampa radar, remain rather scattered and disorganized, but the system has the potential to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone in the next couple of days.

Presentation: Hurricanes and Global Warming

The DC chapter of the American Meteorological Society has posted an announcement of the presentation next week by Chris Mooney on "Storm World, Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle over Global Warming". RSVP is required by Monday.

For background on the topic (besides Mooney's excellent book), see Monday's posting by Kevin Trenberth on the nature.com Climate Feedback blog. Trenberth wrote a feature article, "Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes" in the July Scientific American. The SciAm article was critiqued by wunderground.com's Jeff Masters in his blog.

More Heat, Less Humidity, Some Light

Now

Warm, humid, widely scattered thunderstorms. Following yesterday's much-needed, if not exactly drought-busting rains (National 0.98", Dulles 0.54"), today's storm activity has been considerably lighter and mainly confined to east of I-95. National reported thunder for several hours and even some frequent lightning at mid afternoon, but no rain as of post time. A north to northeasterly wind indicates that the nearly stationary front is over the Eastern Shore and southeastern Virginia, but humidities are still quite muggy with dewpoints within a degree or two of 70°.

A few isolated storms are possible into the evening hours, then gradual clearing overnight. For the hotter and drier outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a tropical wave about 950 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. This area shows some signs of organization and has the potential to develop more in the next couple of days.

Some more light is being shed on the issue of a possible hurricane/global warming link described in Chris Mooney's just-published book, "Storm World". The discussion continues with the publication today of a peer-reviewed paper, "Heightened Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic: Natural Variability or Climate Trend?" in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. This is a formal publication of data presented in a forum at the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society in January. The analysis by Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Peter Webster of Georgia Tech indicates that there has been a significant increase (see chart to the right) in Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone activity in the last century.

In press reports (see AP, via WaPo), however, an NHC "official" is quoted as saying that the research is "sloppy science". The reason this is controversial is (1) the sample size is so small, even over 100 years, and (2) there have been major improvements in observational technology over that time, most notably aircraft reconnaissance beginning in 1944 and satellite surveillance in 1970. Chris Landsea of the National Hurricane Center has some very interesting charts in a paper published in the May 1 issue of EOS, the Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. He shows, for example, that in the record-breaking season of 2005, storms were observed over nearly all of the Atlantic Ocean. In the previous record year of 1933, however, no storms were observed over the central Atlantic, where data was presumably much more limited.

Holland and Webster are not unaware of this possible effect and take it into account in their analysis. One point they make is that storms in the open ocean were less likely to be missed in the pre-satellite era because unsuspecting ships would accidentally encounter them. The most convincing argument, however, is that there are indeed several jumps in the storm frequency, but they occur at different points than the changes in technology.

This debate is likely to continue for a long time. Of all the possible connections to global warming, tropical cyclones are probably the most difficult to definitively analyze.

Chart by Steve Deyo, © UCAR

Summer Reruns

Now

Sunny, cooler, much less humid. The weather sometimes goes in cycles. Here's the PM Update from exactly one month ago: "The cold front which passed through in the early morning hours has brought with it sunny, cooler, and less humid conditions for the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low to mid 80s, dewpoints were in the much more comfortable 50s, and a refreshing northwesterly breeze was gusting to 25 mph at times."

Those words apply equally well today. At post time, National and Dulles are both at 84°, and the dewpoints are New-England-like 52° and 49° respectively. Even the light rainfall amounts from the frontal passage were comparable, although the exact totals this time were: National 0.06", Dulles 0.08", BWI 0.00".

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Book Nook

As PM Update also posted exactly a month ago, Chris Mooney, author of the new book, "Storm World", will be at Politics and Prose tomorrow night at 6:00. The book is profiled in the latest Wired magazine and was recently reviewed in the LaTi and IHT. The author was interviewed about the book in the HouChro earlier this week.

DC: Drier, Cooler

Now

Sunny, cooler, less humid. The cold front which passed through in the early morning hours has brought with it sunny, cooler, and less humid conditions for the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the low to mid 80s, dewpoints were in the much more comfortable 50s, and a refreshing northwesterly breeze was gusting to 25 mph at times.

Yes, we did have thunderstorms in the area. National Airport reported thunder or light rain in 8 separate hourly observations overnight, but the grand total of precipitation was only the minimum amount to verify a rain forecast, 0.01". Dulles didn't fare much better with a mere 0.04", and BWI had only 0.17".

Tonight and Tomorrow

Open the windows! Mostly clear and cooler conditions with comfortable humidity will prevail overnight; lows will range from the low 60s in the city to the low 50s in the outlying areas. Tomorrow will be sunny and seasonably warm with low humidity and highs 83-88°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Climate Corner/Book Nook

The latest post over where the Real Climatologists hang out is an extensive review of a new book by Chris Mooney coming out in a couple of weeks (July 9), "Storm World". The book tackles one of the most controversial subjects related to climate change, the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. Despite Mooney's previous politically-oriented book, the Real folks say that this is "a thoughtful, non-partisan, and scientifically and historically accurate review of the emergent science." To meet the author, mark the date of July 21, when the Storm World tour arrives at Politics and Prose right here in Spin City.

The book is scheduled to be featured in the July issue of Wired magazine. It was also mentioned briefly in the recent summer reading roundup of the BoGlo.

Not a Day at the Beach

Now

Clear, warm. Dry northeasterly breezes between high pressure over New England and low pressure nearly stationary off the Carolina coast, together with an early-August equivalent sun angle, are bringing spectacularly fine spring weather to the Washington metro area this afternoon. Temperatures have reached the mid and upper 60s throughout the region. On the Outer Banks, where PM Update spent a relaxing week, however, conditions are not quite so fine.

Our clear and dry conditions will continue through at least tomorrow, with gradually warming temperatures.

Surface weather map this afternoon from IntelliWeather.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, warmer. Tonight will be clear, but chilly for the season, with lows in the mid to upper 40s in the city and near 40 in the cooler burbclaves. Tomorrow will be much like today, but with a little less wind and a little more warmth, highs in the low to mid 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Mediarology

The Weather Channel, which is celebrating its 25th anniversary, without apparent fanfare has rebranded its weekly "Climate Code" series under the less provocative existing "Forecast Earth" name. The 30-minute climate news segment is now packaged in a 1-hour block with traditional Forecast Earth programming. This week's feature, to be repeated on Saturday, covers solar energy in the first section and the newest generation of weather satellites, GOES-R, which is scheduled for launch in 2014, in the second half-hour. See the WaPo's TV Week magazine cover article for more on TWC's anniversary, including some local connections: Rich Johnson (Baltimore native), Carl Parker (Go Terps!), Mike Seidel (Salisbury, 1980-83 and '89-'92), Alexandra Steele (ABC-7).

551.5: Book Nook

With misinformation so readily available these days from cable noise, squawk radio, and their ilk on the web, it may seem quaint to mention a dead-tree product, but we forego our usual Amazon commission to note that the Oxford University Press Spring Sale includes the Encyclopedia of Climate and Weather at over $200 off. While PM Update can't personally vouch for the book set itself, we can certainly approve of the editor's initials, as well as his apparent coining of the term "mediarology".

March of the Penguins

Now

Sunny, cold. Washington's penguin-friendly weather continued today with temperatures struggling to reach the 40s. Under bright March sun, highs were only 40° at National, 41° at Dulles (low of 11° tied a record), 38° at BWI. After another chilly day tomorrow, more seasonable temperatures are on tap for the weekend.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, cold. Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the low 20s downtown to the mid and upper teens in 'burbland. Tomorrow will be sunny and continued cold, highs 40-43°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Mediarology

Kim Stanley Robinson, author of the just-published third volume in a near-future climate change trilogy set right here in Spin City, was interviewed today on WAMU's Kojo Nnamdi show. Robinson has won numerous science fiction awards, including the Nebula and Hugo for his Mars colonization trilogy. Streaming audio is available on the program's web site.

Beginning Sunday night, The Weather Channel is featuring "Tornado Week" with 2 new episodes of "Storm Stories" (including the 100th of the series) and nightly reports "Live From Tornado Alley."

Chilly Thrills

**Snow Advisory expires 7 PM **

Now

Light snow ending, very cold. Courtesy of some late-season Arctic air and a lingering clipper system, Washington snow lovers were treated to some extra frosting on the end of this year's late-starting winter. Despite seasonally frigid temperatures, accumulations were generally light, except well west of the immediate metro area. National reported 2" at 6pm (0.15" liquid), increasing the season's total by over 20%. Dulles had 1.4" and BWI 0.8". To the west, Frostburg MD had 10", and amounts were as high as 5.5" in Frederick Co. MD.

Today's highs so far were 28° at National, 30° at Dulles, 27° at BWI. National's high was an impressive 25° below the long-term average and only 1° above the lowest recorded maximum for the date.

Following a couple more cold days, more springlike conditions are on tap by the weekend.

Picture of snow at the beach from the Bethany Cam.

Tonight and Tomorrow

SchoolCast:
Decreasing clouds, cold. Any remaining light snow or flurries will be ending this evening, with clouds decreasing after midnight and lows in the low 20s in town to the upper teens in 'burbland. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and continued chilly for the season, with highs in the low 40s.

Killer Tornado

It may seem a little out of season, but yesterday was the publication date of "Storm Warning: The Story of a Killer Tornado" by local author and former journalist Nancy Mathis. The book is about the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City tornado. The author will be presenting a talk at the next meeting of the DC Chapter of the American Meteorological Society at 7pm on Monday, March 19 at the AAAS in Washington. The meeting is free and open to the public, but RSVP is required.

Windy Cold At Bat; Wintry Mix On Deck

*Winter Storm Watch in Effect Late Saturday Night Through Sunday Night*

Now

Windy, cold. We're in the late innings, but winter isn't ready to put away the bat just yet. Winds peaking as high as 55 mph overnight have made it feel a lot colder than the near 40° temperatures this afternoon in the Washington metro area, especially after the relatively balmy experience of 3 consecutive days above average (and above freezing). Highs were 41° at National, 39° at Dulles, and 38° at BWI.

A low pressure area just now becoming organized in the central Rockies will deepen and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes, bringing with it the threat of some wintry precipitation in the Mid Atlantic region Sunday.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, less windy, cold. Under clear skies and diminishing winds, lows tonight should be from the low 20s downtown to the mid and upper teens in 'burbland. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and continued cold, less windy than today with highs 42-45°

For the outlook through the rest of the weekend, including Sunday's potential wintry mix, scroll down to Camden's post below.

Tropical Topics

Winter may be still batting, but tropical season is just over 90 days away. Here at PM Update, we're getting in the mood by starting to read Ivor van Heerden's "The Storm", a scientist's on-the-scene report of the Katrina experience. From the tone of the introduction, it appears that he will be pulling no punches in his analysis of what went on.

Meanwhile, yesterday the National Hurricane Center published their annual post mortem analysis of forecast accuracy for last year's storm season. The good news: Atlantic track forecast accuracy set new records in the range from 12-72 hr., beat each individual dynamical model, and only slightly trailed the consensus models. The bad news: Intensity forecasting continues to be a formidable problem. Intensity accuracy was close to the average of the last 5 years, but skill levels (improvement over average conditions, or climatology and persistence) were "down sharply."

Chart of hurricane track forecast accuracy in nautical miles at 24, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hr., years 1990-2006, from NHC

Blast From the Past

Now

Sunny, breezy. Temperatures have been falling slightly this afternoon under northwesterly winds gusting over 30 mph at times, but the main change has been in the humidity. While the temperature fell 1° in 6 hours from 9am to 3pm, the dewpoint plunged from 50° all the way to 22° (and 4 more degrees in the next hour). In the meantime, the high for the day reached 56° early in the afternoon.

While dropping only to near average January levels, temperatures in the next couple of days will seem especially cold after the warm spell we've been experiencing. There is even the possibility of some scattered flurries to go along with the more wintry temperatures.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, cold, flurries possible. Under clear skies tonight, lows will range from the low 30s downtown to mid and upper 20s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and seasonably cold, with highs near 44°. There is a 30% chance of some light snow flurries or sprinkles, especially in the afternoon.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Reasoning By Analogy

Analogies are always imperfect, so forecasting from past analogs is a lot like driving while looking in the rear view mirror. Nevertheless, looking at past patterns can provide what the math guys call an "existence proof" and therefore give some clues as to which of the infinite number of possible states of the atmosphere are "preferred." The recent pattern of an upper-level low pressure trough in the West and a high pressure ridge in the East is similar in a lot of ways to the pattern of January 1950, which was by far the all-time warmest January in the 130+ years of official records in Washington. The monthly average of 48° that month was more than 1° higher than the second highest January in 1932 and more than 4° higher than the third place holder, 1890. January 1950 was responsible for 5 daily temperature records which stood until this year. The record for the 6th is the one which was broken on Saturday.

The chart shows the daily highs and lows for January 1950, along with the trend of the month-to-date average for that year and the average for this year so far. Note that after building warmth in the first week, January 1950 went through a series of progressively cooler cycles through the second and third week, finally culminating in the all-time warmest Washington January day, 79° on the 26th. That day was so spectacular that it got its own article in the Monthly Weather Review. The pattern finally broke down during the middle of February.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Mediarology: Capitol Climate

Today's Diane Rehm Show on WAMU (88.5 FM) featured a discussion of the prospects of climate policy action in the new Congress. Guests were: John Fialka, environment and energy reporter for "The Wall Street Journal"; Felicity Barringer, reporter, New York Times; Sen. Jeff Bingaman, (D-NM), new chair of the Senate Energy Committee; James Connaughton, chair, White House Council on Environmental Quality. Streaming audio is available online, and the show is scheduled to be rebroadcast tonight at 9:00.

Also from NPR were reports yesterday on the impact of this winter's temperatures on central Maine and an interview with Robert Henson, author of "The Rough Guide to Climate Change".

24 Days and Counting

Now

Clear, mild. After a frosty start, it's a brilliantly sunny mid March day here in the Washington metro area. The official high was 56°, equal to the climatological average high for March 16-18. This is now the 24th consecutive day of above-average temperatures, and there are at least several more on tap. The PM Update mobile unit observed numerous walkers, joggers (note to spellcheck: not jokers!), and bicyclists enjoying the conditions along Beach Drive in the Kensington-Bethesda area early this afternoon.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Continued seasonably mild; some increase in clouds. Under mainly clear skies, low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s downtown to near freezing in the 'burbies. Clouds will increase somewhat tomorrow, particularly late in the day, with highs near 60°

For the outlook through the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below.

The Trend is Your Friend?

The trend is definitely not your friend if you're a snow-lover. As we've cautioned many times, however, "past performance is no guarantee of future results". Matt recapped December in his Tuesday post. The chart to the right summarizes the temperature part of the story. Note the 2 daily record highs, but also the fact that the linear trend (dashed line) of the highs is actually slightly upward, despite the usual downward trend of the average during the month.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Science Fact and Fiction

Dan poses the intriguing question of what Washington would be like under a different climate in his earlier post. For a really far out consideration of this question, check out the science fiction section of the new CapitalWeather.com store. Kim Stanley Robinson's trilogy is based right here in a future DC. The second volume comes out in paperback at the end of the month and is available for pre-order; the third book is scheduled for release in February.

In case you missed it, let me repeat that this is fiction, although the first one (I haven't yet read the other two) is much more plausible than, say, "The Day After Tomorrow." Unlike some people who run energy industry lobbying operations from their $1.2 million Potomac homes, we are extremely careful here at CapitalWeather.com to separate fact from fiction. Like alternative histories, however, alternative futures can often provide interesting and useful insights.

Why Ask Why?

Now

Sunny, cool. In a more average December, it would be considered a thaw, but the low 50s in the Washington metro area this afternoon feel cold compared to the balmy records yesterday. Highs were 52° at National, 51° at Dulles and BWI. The relatively mild and dry conditions are likely to continue for a couple more days.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Clear, cool. Under clear skies and light winds, lows tonight will be near 34° in the city to the mid and upper 20s in cooler 'burbland. Tomorrow will be much like today, but with less breeze and highs again near 50°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the holiday weekend, scroll down to Jason's post below.

ISO Snow

"Why ask why, when all that's true
The sky is blue, blue for no reason"
Bonnie Raitt, Blue For No Reason, from Fundamental

The snow lovers keep asking why, but the facts on the ground are that there is very little snow around so far this season. It may be no consolation, but they should be aware that they are not alone in being frustrated. The national plot of major reporting stations shows virtually zilch, nada, bupkis throughout the continental U.S. A more comprehensive view derived from satellite data is a little more interesting, but still limited to the western mountains and fringe northern border areas.

Until patterns are more favorable, you're going to have to be satisfied with virtual snow. The current (January/February) issue of American Scientist has an article, "The Formation of Snow Crystals", by the "Snowflake Man", Prof. Kenneth G. Libbrecht, professor of physics and chairman of the Physics Department at Caltech and author of "The Snowflake". The article itself is limited to subscribers, but there are several interesting links, including some animated computer simulations of snowflake growth. Libbrecht's work is also featured in today's WaPo KidsPost, online and carbon-based edition.

Snow crystal images from American Scientist