PM Update: Tropical Attention Shifts to Atlantic Coast

5 pm Update: Hannah Weakens, Ike and Josephine Strengthen;
Florida declares state of emergency

Aircraft reconnaissance confirmed that Hanna weakened further this afternoon to maximum winds of 65 mph as it meandered slowly southward near the southern Bahamas. Some strengthening along with a turn to a more northwesterly direction are expected. Hanna could become a hurricane again in the next couple of days.

The complexity of the upper level circulation pattern around Hanna means that there is greater uncertainty in the intensity forecast than usual. However, Hanna is still expected to reach the Southeast U.S. coast somewhere from central Florida to the Carolinas as a Category 1 hurricane by the weekend. In anticipation of Hanna's arrival, CNN reports that Florida has already declared a state of emergency.

Tropical Storm Ike's maximum winds increased to 65 mph as it trucked along in the tradewinds at a brisk 17 mph. It has a good chance of becoming a hurricane within 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Josephine now has winds estimated at up to 50 mph as it moves westward away from the Cape Verde Islands. Josephine has very favorable water temperatures and wind shear conditions, so it is expected to become a hurricane within a couple of days.

Original post:
As Gustav loses its tropical identity, a new storm has formed in the Atlantic, so there are still three active tropical cyclones. The one with the most immediate threat to land is Hanna, which is expected to reach the Southeast U.S. coast and interior Mid Atlantic area after affecting the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Gustav weakened to a depression overnight. Tropical advisories are no longer being issued on the storm, but it's still expected to be a prolific rain maker in the interior of the Gulf Coast Region.

Hurricane Hanna was downgraded to a tropical storm. It's still being bashed by some upper level wind shear aided by the outflow from Gustav. Hanna is still capable of producing heavy rains over the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Little change is expected in Hanna's 70 mph maximum winds through tonight, but it has a better chance of strengthening tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Ike has strengthened a little to maximum winds of 60 mph. It could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Josephine developed from Tropical Depression 10 this morning near the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. It has maximum winds of 40 mph, and it has a chance of becoming a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Triple Tropical Trouble: Gustav, Hanna, Ike

Gustav Weakens, Hanna and Ike Strengthen

11 pm Update:

• Gustav has weakened to a tropical storm. Maximum winds are down to 60 mph.
  
• Hurricane Hanna has been meandering and is expected to move little through Tuesday. Maximum winds are still 80 mph.
  
• Tropical Storm Ike remains at 50 mph, continues moving west.

8 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav has continued to weaken today as it moves further inland. At 8 pm, the storm was a minimal Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. It was located in central Louisiana, moving northwest at 14 mph. Gustav will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Louisiana, as well as southern and western Mississippi, northeastern Texas, Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southeastern Oklahoma. Isolated amounts up to 20 inches are possible.

Hanna has strengthened to a hurricane with maximum winds of 80 mph. It is now nearly stationary near the Caicos Islands. It is expected to gradually begin moving northwestward toward the central Bahamas in the next couple of days, eventually reaching the Southeast Coast.

As expected, Tropical Depression 9 became Tropical Storm Ike with maximum winds of 50 mph. It is located well out in the Atlantic, about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Ike's westerly track is likely to bring the storm near the southern Bahamas as a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.

As if that wasn't enough tropical excitement, a tropical wave even further out in the Atlantic, about 200 miles from the Cape Verde Islands, is showing signs of organization. It could pop out as Tropical Depression 10 at any time in the next couple of days. If it develops further, it would be Tropical Storm Josephine.

Original post:
The three levels of tropical cyclone are tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. We now have all three active in the Atlantic basin. As Hurricane Gustav moves inland (scroll down to the previous post for details), Tropical Storm Hanna is looking much better organized this morning, and Tropical Depression 9 has formed about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

As of 11 am, Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened to maximum winds of 60 mph. It's moving west southwest around 5 mph towards the southeastern and central Bahamas. The future development of Hanna and its track are tricky. They depend on its interaction with a complex upper level circulation pattern, including the outflow from the weakening Gustav to the west. The current forecast, however, has Hanna strengthening to a hurricane over the Bahamas and threatening the Southeast Coast later in the week.

The just-issued initial advisory on Tropical Depression 9 puts its strength at 35 mph, but it is expected to become Tropical Storm Ike later today. The National Hurricane Center forecast takes the storm generally westward toward the Bahamas as a hurricane.

Images: Hanna satellite image from The Weather Channel (upper), Hanna (middle) and Ike (lower) tracks from National Hurricane Center

Downgraded Gustav Makes Landfall

11 am Update: Hurricane Gustav made landfall around 9:30 CDT near Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 70 miles southwest of New Orleans. Maximum winds are still 110 mph, but the storm is expected to weaken further as it moves inland.

Economic/political impacts

• Although U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday, oil prices have been dropping sharply in overseas trading.
  
• Politicians are struggling with the political ramifications of Gustav in relation to the disrupted opening of the Republican National Convention today.

Original post:
Hurricane Gustav was downgraded to Category 2 this morning as it approached landfall on the Louisiana coast west of New Orleans. Maximum winds are 110 mph, and the storm is continuing to move northwest at 16 miles per hour. The center of Gustav is located about 80 miles south southwest of New Orleans and about 20 miles from Port Fourchon on the Louisiana coast. On this track, the storm will make landfall within the next 2 hours, or by about 10 am local time.

Based on the diminished strength of the storm and its distance west of the city, the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports that "Corps of Engineers chiefs say they anticipate no storm surge flooding due to Hurricane Gustav."

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track forecast from HAMweather (lower)

PM Update: Gustav Slightly Weaker, Still Dangerous

Hanna still weak, but bears watching.

Late PM Update: Hurricane Gustav is holding its Category 3 strength with 115 mph maximum winds as it approaches the Louisiana coast. Forward speed is slightly lower at 16 mph toward the northwest. At 11 pm, the storm was centered about about 220 miles southeast of New Orleans. On this track, Gustav will make landfall in the daylight hours Monday morning.

The lowest pressure, which had been dropping, has leveled off at 954 mb. Dropsonde observations show that drier air is moving into the center of the storm at middle and upper levels. Therefore, little change in intensity is likely before landfall.

8 pm Update:Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Gustav are about to reach the coast of southeastern Louisiana, and hurricane force winds will reach the coast after midnight. The maximum strength of Gustav is unchanged, but reconnaissance indicates that the extent of hurricane force winds has expanded, especially in the northwest quadrant. The storm remains on track for landfall on the Louisiana coast on Monday.

Some intensification may occur tonight, but that is likely to be limited; satellite imagery indicates that dry air is wrapping into the circulation from the west and south.

5 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav remains a Category 3 storm at 5 pm with maximum winds of 115 mph. Some fluctuation in intensity may occur overnight, but the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.

The storm is located about 215 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi and is moving northwest at 18 mph. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the west, so the Hurricane Warning has been extended westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts to east of High Island, Texas. Warnings now extend all the way from the Alabama/Florida border to east of High Island.

Although some strengthening is possible before landfall, several factors are working against it:

• Southerly wind shear at upper levels
  
• Dry air to the south and west
  
• Lower oceanic heat content as the storm moves away from the very warm Loop Current

Hanna Update

Ordinarily, a possible hurricane threat to the Southeast coast would get more attention, but Hanna has been overshadowed by big brother Gustav. Plagued by persistent wind shear, Hanna has remained a weak tropical storm. As of 5 pm today, maximum winds were 45 mph. It was moving west at 10 mph from a position about 140 miles east of the Bahamas.

Hanna's future is subject to some complicated interactions with the upper level flow pattern, but its prospects are strong enough for it to threaten the Bahamas as a tropical storm and potentially the Southeast U.S. coast as a hurricane later in the week.

Original post:
Hurricane Gustav has maximum winds of 115 mph as of 2 pm, based on aircraft reconnaissance. The storm continues to move northwest at 17 mph from a position about 270 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. Gustav remains a dangerous Category 3 storm and some re-intensification, possibly to Category 4, is likely before the storm makes landfall as a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane force winds currently extend up to 50 miles, and tropical storm winds up to 200 miles, from the center.

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track forecast from HAMweather (middle), Hanna track forecast from National Hurricane Center (lower)

Major Hurricane Gustav Weakens, Expected to Restrengthen

Heading for Gulf Coast Landfall Monday

11 am Update: Hurricane Gustav's maximum winds remain at 120 mph as of 11 am. The storm is moving slightly faster, 17 mph, toward the northwest. Satellite images show a more ragged appearance, consistent with the storm's weakening since yesterday. The circulation is also showing the weakening effects of some wind shear. The wind shear is likely to reduce as the storm moves, but it will also be moving over relatively cooler waters. Therefore, some intensification is forecast, but it is likely to be slow to occur. The latest models are showing a westward shift in the landfall point on the Louisiana coast, but the official forecast is not yet reflecting that shift.

Original post:
Hurricane Gustav weakened overnight to a Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 120 mph. It's moving northwest from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico at a speed of 16 mph toward a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Monday. The most likely target of the center is southeastern to western Louisiana, but strong winds, heavy rain, and an extremely dangerous storm surge are likely some distance to the east of the center. Storm surges could be as much as 18-25 feet above normal tidal levels near and to the east of the center. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cameron, Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track from HAMweather (lower)

PM Update: Gustav Now Extremely Dangerous Category 4

Strengthening Possible Before Gulf Coast Landfall

11 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav has emerged into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico after crossing western Cuba. Winds have decreased to 140 mph, but the storm is likely to intensify again over the Gulf. It continues on track to reach the northern Gulf Coast Monday afternoon. The most likely point of landfall is the Louisiana coast west of the Mississippi River.

8 pm Update: At 8 pm, Hurricane Gustav remains an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm as it crosses western Cuba. Maximum winds remain at 150 mph. Some strengthening to Category 5 is possible. The center is located about 65 miles west southwest of Havana, moving northwest at 15 mph. On its current track, it is expected to make landfall on the northern Gulf Coast on Monday as a major hurricane.

5 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav is now a very strong Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 150 mph as it approaches western Cuba. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for a large portion of the northern Gulf Coast, from High Island, Texas eastward to the Alabama/Florida border. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued eastward from there along the coast of the Florida panhandle.

The eye of the storm was located about 130 miles east northeast of the western tip of Cuba, and the storm was moving northwest at 15 mph. The latest forecast track brings Gustav a little more quickly to landfall on the northern Gulf Coast. The minimum central pressure reported by aircraft reconnaissance is 942 mb.

Original post:
Aircraft reconnaissance has found that Hurricane Gustav is now an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 145 mph. A special advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm locates Gustav just east of the Cuban Isle of Youth and 155 miles east of the western tip of Cuba. An unofficial report showed a sustained wind of 140 mph as the western edge of the eyewall reached the Isle of Youth. Minimum pressure is estimated at 945 mb. Additional strengthening is likely, with the storm possibly reaching Category 5 in the vicinity of western Cuba.

Images: Gustav track from HAMweather (upper), Gustav radar from The Weather Channel (lower)

Dangerous Hurricane Gustav Approaches Cuba, Heading for U.S. Landfall Monday

Hurricane Gustav strengthened rapidly overnight and is now a Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. It's approaching western Cuba on a northwesterly path at 14 mph. The current track will bring Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico by early Sunday and to a landfall on the northern Gulf Coast Monday morning. Although the storm's strength is likely to fluctuate crossing Cuba, further intensification is likely in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Gustav will reach a maximum strength of Category 4.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the lower Florida Keys, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of western Cuba.

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track forecast from National Hurricane Center (lower)

Hurricane Gustav Begins Intensification Likely to be Major Threat in Gulf

11 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav's maximum winds have increased to 80 mph as it moves through the Cayman Islands. As of 11 pm, the center of Gustav is about 25 miles west southwest of Little Cayman Island, moving northwest at 10 mph. Further strengthening is forecast for the next two days.

Original post:
On the third anniversary of Katrina, Hurricane Gustav is developing into a potential major threat to the northern Gulf Coast. Moving westward from Jamaica over some of the warmest water in the entire Atlantic basin, Gustav has re-intensified to a hurricane this afternoon. At 3:15, it was upgraded to a Category 1 storm with winds up to 75 mph, based on aircraft reconnaissance.

Gustav is expected to continue intensifying, possibly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3) by the time it reaches western Cuba this weekend. One index of intensification is showing a 35% chance of an increase of up to 30 knots in wind speed during the next 24 hours.

At 5 pm, a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the lower Florida Keys. Various watches and warnings remain in effect for the Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, and Jamaica.

Gustav Economic Impacts

Videos from CNBC:

• ConocoPhillips CEO on Gustav
  
• Trading Gustav
  
• Gustav, the Gulf and Oil
  
• Entergy's Gustav Preparations
  
• Gulf Coast Businesses Prepare for Gustav

Images: Gustav track forecast (upper) from National Hurricane Center, Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for the Gulf of Mexico (middle) and Caribbean (lower) shows possibility for major development of Hurricane Gustav. Source: AOML/NOAA

PM Update: Gustav Near Hurricane Force

Tropical Storm Gustav is strengthening early this afternoon to near hurricane force. Maximum winds are 70 mph at 2 pm, based on aircraft reconnaissance, and the storm could become a Category 1 hurricane at any time. The storm has also expanded somewhat today; tropical storm force winds extend up to 140 miles from the center. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected.

The latest advisory places the center of Gustav 125 miles east southeast of Grand Cayman, moving west northwest at 11 mph. On its current track, the storm will pass near or over the Cayman Islands today, over western Cuba Saturday, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico Sunday.

Gustav Leaving Jamaica, Hanna Disorganized Both Expected to Strengthen

Tropical Storm Gustav weakened slightly overnight from its encounter with Jamaica, but it is now moving away from the island and is expected to strengthen today, possibly rapidly. Maximum winds at 11 am were at 65 mph. The center of the storm was located about 165 miles away from Grand Cayman Island and headed in that direction at 8 mph. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of western Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for central Cuba.

Gustav will be moving over very warm water in the northwestern Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions, so it is very likely to become a hurricane some time today. It could even become a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. One intensity model gives a 28% chance of an increase in strength of 30 knots or more in the next 24 hours. There is still wide disagreement among models on the final landfall point, so all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should remain alert.

Tropical Storm Hanna is somewhat disorganized as it passes north of the Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are 50 mph as of 11 am. Gradual strengthening is likely with the storm possibly becoming a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.

Gustav Economic Impacts

• After opening higher, natural gas prices are up a little less than 2% in mid day trading.
  
• WSJ Environmental Capital reviews yesterday's counterintuitive energy price action.
  
• StormWire says Gustav is Worst Threat to Oil Industry since Katrina

CNBC video reports this morning:

• Gustav & the Ports
• Anadarko Prepares for Gustav
• Gustav & New Orleans Tourism
  
• Gustav: Worst Case Scenario

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel, Gustav and Hanna forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Gustav Grinds On, Hanna Holds On

Late PM Update: Gustav is still a strong Tropical Storm as it moves westward along the south side of Jamaica with maximum winds of 70 mph as of 11 pm. There is still wide disagreement among models on the storm's intensity, but it is expected to be a major hurricane as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico.

Hanna has strengthened to 50 mph this evening; it's expected to become a hurricane by Saturday.

8 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Gustav is now near the south coast of Jamaica, about 15 miles west of Kingston. Movement is toward the west at 7 mph, and maximum winds are still 70 mph. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, and the warning for Jamaica remains in effect.

Update: Added wind probability chart, link to Jamaica Gleaner.

Tropical Storm Gustav continues to bear down on Jamaica late this afternoon after making landfall on the eastern tip of the island around 2 pm. Maximum winds are still at 70 mph. As of 5 pm, the center of Gustav is located only 15 miles east northeast of Kingston. It's moving west around 6 mph.

The storm's expected track has now prompted a Hurricane Watch to be issued for portions of western Cuba. There has been little change in the official track or intensity forecast, but there are large uncertainties in both. The National Hurricane Center says

IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. IN FACT...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE FORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF LOUISIANA.

The bottom chart on the right shows that, between Gustav and Hanna, there is at least a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds in the next 5 days along the entire Gulf Coast and along the Atlantic Coast as far north as North Carolina.

This means that interests along the entire western and northern Gulf Coast need to keep a close eye on this storm. The governors of Louisiana and Texas have already issued disaster declarations in order to facilitate storm preparations. The Jamaica Gleaner reports on how Jamaicans are preparing for the storm in their own unique way.

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to maintain minimum strength of 40 mph as it moves west northwest and then northwest away from the northern Leeward Islands.

In the always volatile energy markets today, oil prices dropped and natural gas gave up nearly all of its gains of the last 2 days as it fell over 6% by the close. For a discussion of Gustav's potential impacts on the Gulf of Mexico energy industry and the city of New Orleans, see today's videos from CNBC:

• Tracking Gustav's Path
  
• Gearing Up for Gustav
• Are We Prepared for Gustav?

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel, Gustav forecast track and wind probabilities from National Hurricane Center

Breaking News: Hello, Hanna! Gustav's Rain Hits Jamaica

Early PM Update: Tropical Storm Gustav, still just below hurricane strength, is bringing heavy rain to Jamaica. At 2 pm, the storm was around the eastern tip of the island, about 40 miles east of Kingston. It's moving to the west at 5 mph and is expected to continue on that course with some increase in forward speed the rest of today. A reconnaissance flight is currently measuring conditions near and around Gustav.

Original post:
Tropical Depression 8 has just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna with maximum winds of 40 mph as of 11 am. It's located a little over 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west northwest at 12 mph. Hanna is expected to gradually reach hurricane force as it moves northwestward and then more westward, possibly threatening the Bahamas or Florida later on.

Tropical Storm Gustav remains just under hurricane force as it moves westward toward Jamaica and then the Cayman Islands. Maximum winds are 70 mph, and the forward speed is around 5 mph.

Gustav Restrengthening, Targets Jamaica New Depression Could Become Hanna

9:30 am Update: Tropical Depression 8 (Tropical Storm Hanna wannabe) is looking much more impressive on satellite imagery (shown to the right) in the last couple of hours.

Original post:
Late last evening, one of The Weather Channel meteorologists was saying, "Don't pay attention to that blob to the south, that's not Gustav." The disruption caused by interaction with land can cause tropical cyclones, especially weak ones, to reorganize, and that's essentially what has happened to Gustav. It's looking a lot healthier today after regrouping to the south of its original track. The new course is likely to take it over or even to the south of Jamaica.

After weakening to as low as 45 mph, Tropical Storm Gustav is regaining strength this morning and is now up to 70 mph. The storm is likely to be back to hurricane force later today. Its restrengthening and the more southerly track have prompted a Hurricane Warning to be issued for Jamaica.

At 8 am, the storm was located about 80 miles east of Kingston, Jamaica. It was nearly stationary, but expected to resume a west southwest motion. The official forecast has now moved more to the west, but it still brings Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane.

Meanwhile, as the possibility was noted last night, Tropical Depression 8 has formed east of the Leeward Islands. It has the potential to become Tropical Storm Hanna later today. On its current path, it will move well north of the islands, but a turn to the west could possibly threaten the Bahamas or Florida later on.

Images, top to bottom: Caribbean satellite view and Gustav's track so far (The Weather Channel), Gustav's forecast track and TD 8's forecast track (National Hurricane Center)

Gustav Gradually Gaining ;Currently Weakened, Expected to Strengthen

8 pm Update: Tropical Storm Gustav has weakened slightly again this evening; maximum winds are now 45 mph as it moves west around 7 mph. The current position is 65 miles south of Guantanamo, Cuba. Slow strengthening is still expected.

Meanwhile, as all the attention has been focused on Gustav, a low pressure area which has made its way to a position about 375 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has shown high potential for development. It could become a tropical depression as early as tonight or tomorrow. If it develops further, it would become Tropical Storm Hanna.

Later PM Update: Showing the limitations of intensity forecasting, even at short time scales, Tropical Storm Gustav has weakened further this afternoon from its interaction with Haiti. A reconnaissance flight has found that maximum winds at 5 pm are down to 50 mph.

It has also slowed to a forward speed of only 3 mph, which should delay its reintensification. Conditions are very favorable for strengthening, and it is likely to be back to hurricane force south of Cuba by late tomorrow or Friday. However, there is still a wide disagreement among intensity models.

After an early jump based at least in part on news of the storm, natural gas prices have closed somewhat lower, but still up 2.7% for the day.

PM Update: Cuban radar early this afternoon, displayed to the right, is showing Tropical Storm Gustav's center of circulation moving away from the southwestern tip of Haiti. At 2 pm, the center was about 90 miles east southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, moving west at 5 mph. The forecast track remains virtually identical to the one in the previous advisory. Maximum winds are still at 60 mph, but the storm is likely to regain hurricane strength in the next day or two.

Natural gas prices have eased from their opening highs; they are now up a little more than 2%.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Gustav is gradually moving away from Haiti today. The storm weakened from its interaction with the mountainous terrain of Haiti overnight, and the maximum winds are now 60 mph. High-resolution satellite and Cuban radar images show that the storm is again becoming better organized, however.

Current movement is toward the west northwest at 5 mph, and the forecast track continues to aim Gustav toward the Gulf of Mexico as a potentially strong hurricane. Although interests in the Gulf need to be prepared, there is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The National Hurricane Center said this morning,

THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES. INDEED...IF ONE LOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

Despite the uncertainty, energy markets have continued to react to the threat. Natural gas prices rose over 4% this morning for a 2-day gain of about 10%.

PM Update: Gustav Gunning for Gulf Hurricane Makes First Landfall

Late PM Update: Earlier this evening, Cuban radar showed a well-defined eye for Gustav, but later radar and satellite imagery pictured a more ragged structure, so the storm was downgraded to a tropical storm at 11 pm. Maximum winds are still estimated at 70 mph, and restrengthening is likely tomorrow as the storm moves more over water. There has been little change in the forecast track, which takes Gustav between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba by Thursday. At that point, it could reach as high as Category 2, and the official forecast brings it to near Category 4 at 72 hours (Friday night).

8 pm Update: Maximum winds for Hurricane Gustav remain at 75 mph as of the latest advisory. The center was located about 60 miles west of Port Au Prince, Haiti and about 155 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely tonight, but it should strengthen again as it moves back over the water of the Windward Passage tomorrow. As shown in the second chart on the right, Gustav will be moving over an area with some of the highest Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) in the Atlantic basin.

5 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav has weakened over southwestern Haiti to 75 mph. It may weaken further to below hurricane strength overnight before moving back over water east of Cuba. The upper level environment is also favorable for development, with very low wind shear. Gustav is moving toward the northwest at a little slower pace, about 10 mph. Jeff Masters reports in his blog that Gustav tied the record of Humberto from last year for the fastest time from initial advisory to Category 1 hurricane.

Natural gas prices ended trading slightly down from their highs, but still up 5.3% for the day.

Original post:

Hurricane Gustav made its first landfall on southwestern Haiti early this afternoon. The storm is still at Category 1 strength with maximum winds of 90 mph. Some weakening is likely from the interaction of Gustav's relatively small circulation with Haiti, but then restrengthening is expected over the warm waters between Haiti and southeastern Cuba. There is a large uncertainty in position and intensity after day 3, but the official track takes the storm over the far western tip of Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Gustav's potential threat to the Gulf is helping to keep natural gas prices near the high for the day, up 6.6%.

In other tropical news, Stu Ostro does his usual thorough and colorful job of reviewing "Fay's nine lives" at The Weather Channel blog.

Images: Gustav forecast track from National Hurricane Center, TCHP from NOAA/AOML, U.S. Natural Gas fund 5-day prices from BigCharts.com, via Fidelity Investments

Hurricane Heads for Haiti Gustav Strengthens, Likely to be Major

Update: As of 11 am, Hurricane Gustav remains at 90 mph strength. A Hurricane Warning has been extended to eastern Cuba. Based on the expected intensification and track heading into the Gulf of Mexico, oil prices are higher in this morning's trading, and natural gas is up over 6%.

As expected, Tropical Storm Gustav continued to strengthen overnight, becoming a Category 1 hurricane. By 8 am, maximum winds were 90 mph, and further strengthening to Category 2 is possible before Hurricane Gustav makes landfall on southwestern Haiti today. The current movement is toward the northwest at 9 mph, but a turn to a more westerly track is forecast. This will keep the storm more over very warm water, which should lead to further intensification. The official intensity forecast has Gustav becoming a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the northwestern Caribbean within a few days.

Late PM Update: Gustav Nearly a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Gustav has strengthened through this evening; it now has maximum winds of 70 mph. Hurricane warnings have been extended in Haiti and a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for Jamaica. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) notes that Gustav now has a "well-defined eye." NHC expects that the next aircraft reconnaissance at 2 am will find that the storm has become a hurricane.

The track still remains somewhat uncertain, but the official forecasts have been moving more westerly than northerly, giving the storm more time over water. This would imply a greater strengthening. Two major models, in fact, are keeping Gustav away from most of Cuba and increasing it to major hurricane force within 5 days.

Fay's Phenomenal Florida Floods Fading Gustav Getting Going?

5 pm Update: Although the appearance of Tropical Storm Gustav has become somewhat ragged during the day, maximum winds are still 60 mph at 5 pm, based on the latest aircraft reconnaissance data. Movement is toward the northwest at 14 mph; the storm is expected to be near or over Haiti during the day tomorrow. There is still significant uncertainty in the track, and the latest official forecast brings Gustav more to the west and over Cuba.

PM Update: At 2 pm, the National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gustav. Maximum winds are already around 60 mph, and some strengthening is likely in the next 24 hours. Hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for major portions of the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

Original post:

Whatever this tropical season lacks so far in sheer number of storms or in extreme intensity, it's making up for in persistence. Fay's long reign as a tropical storm came to an end late Saturday evening when it was downgraded to a tropical depression, but its rains have continued. As the 7-day precipitation map shows, nearly the entire state of Florida except for the western panhandle was drenched with torrential amounts of precipitation.

As the center of the remnants continued to move through east central Mississippi this morning, heavy rains were rotating into that western panhandle area as well. Flash flood watches are in effect for that portion of Florida, as well as parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and eastern Louisiana. Flood warnings are in effect in areas of northern Florida and southern Georgia.

Meanwhile, an area of storms which had persistently tracked westward into the central Caribbean was looking very impressive on satellite imagery today. It has now become Tropical Depression 7, and it could develop into Tropical Storm Gustav if data from aircraft reconnaissance this afternoon provide support for that interpretation. According to the Tropical Atlantic recon decoder, peak surface winds were estimated a few minutes ago as high as 41 kt. (47 mph).

Some storm total amounts from Fay in northern Florida through yesterday afternoon rival the amounts that fell through the end of last week on the east coast of Florida. They include:

OFFICIAL NWS ASOS SITES. STORM TOTALS (08/21/08- 4 PM EDT 08/24/08)

TALLAHASSEE (TLH) 11.44
PANAMA CITY (PFN) 1.53
ALBANY (ABY) 4.97
DOTHAN (DHN) 4.32
APALACHICOLA (AAF) 2.54
PERRY (40J) 13.64
CROSS CITY (CTY) 8.83
MARIANNA (MAI) 2.99

TALLAHASSEE NWS FORECAST OFFICE: 15.12 (THROUGH 2PM 08/24/08)


COCORAHS OBSERVERS (72 HOUR TOTALS ENDING 7 AM 08/24/08)

WACISSA 1.1 SW (FL-JF-3) 17.79
TALLAHASSEE 5.7 SE (FL-LN-4) 17.67
TALLAHASSEE 6.1 SE (FL-LN-33) 17.07
TALLAHASSEE 14.2 NE (FL-LN-31) 16.88
TALLAHASSEE 6.1 NE (FL-LN-13) 16.41
TALLAHASSEE 0.6 SE (FL-LN-23) 15.99
TALLAHASSEE 8.3 N (FL-LN-22) 15.90
TALLAHASSEE 2.8 N (FL-LN-26) 15.39
TALLAHASSEE 4.3 N (FL-LN-17) 14.96
MONTICELLO 0.2 ESE (FL-JF-1) 14.57
TALLAHASSEE 1.3 SW (FL-LN-10) 14.53
TALLAHASSEE 6.1 E (FL-LN-15) 13.88
TALLAHASSEE 3.5 N (FL-LN-25) 13.69
TALLAHASSEE 3.1 NW (FL-LN-29) 13.64
TALLAHASSEE 2.6 WNW (FL-LN-8) 12.63
TALLAHASSEE 5.7 NNE (FL-LN-20) 12.59
TALLAHASSEE 1.8 NW (FL-LN-12) 12.56
TALLAHASSEE 3.3 SSE (FL-LN-28) 12.54
MONTICELLO 3.6 WSW (FL-JF-5) 12.38
MADISON 8.3 NN3 (FL-MS-2) 11.80
CRAWFORDVILLE 2.5 NE (FL-WK-4) 10.74
ST MARKS 8.2 SW (FL-WK-2) 9.58
ST MARKS 9.2 W (FL-WK-1) 9.54
MIDWAY 6.9 SW (FL-LN-18) 6.13
WEWAHITCHKA 1.6 SW (FL-GF-2) 2.35
PORT ST JOE 0.6 SE (FL-GF-1) 1.75


NWS COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS (72-HR TOTALS ENDING 8 AM 08/24/08)

ST MARKS NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE (SMNF1) 17.53
DOWLING PARK (DOWF1) 12.62
QUITMAN (QTMG1) 10.78
BRISTOL (BRLF1) 10.50
VALDOSTA (VDSG1) 8.29
TALLAHASSEE AIRPORT (TASF1) 8.79
CROSS CITY (CRSF1) 8.52
BLAKELY (BLKG1) 7.35
DONALSONVILLE (DNVG1) 7.15
FORT GAINES (FTGG1) 6.75
LEESBURG (LEEG1) 6.51

RIVER GAGES (08/21/08 - 2 PM EDT 08/24/08)

THOMASVILLE (TMLG1) 19.14
HAVANA (HVNF1) 16.67
WACISSA (WACF1) 15.17
PERRY (PERF1) 14.81
ASHEVILLE (ASHF1) 13.07
DOWLING PARK (DOUF1) 10.00
NEWTON (NEWG1) 9.62
LURAVILLE (LURF1) 9.14

UNOFFICIAL PUBLIC OBSERVATIONS (STORM TOTAL)

THOMASVILLE .1 N (THROUGH 8/24 8AM) 27.50
TALLAHASSEE 5 E (THROUGH 8/23 5PM) 22.00
TALLAHASSEE (OLD BAINBRIDGE ROAD) (THROUGH 8/24 8AM)13.60
THOMASVILLE 3E (THROUGH 8/24 9AM) 13.50
FSU METEOROLOGY (THROUGH 8/24 1PM) 12.23
MOULTRIE (THROUGH 8/24 NOON) 8.71
DOTHAN 1.8 WNW (THROUGH 8/24 9AM) 4.90
DOTHAN 2 W (THROUGH 8/23 630PM) 4.46

Tropical Update: Gustav Wannabe?

A stormy area which moved westward into the central Caribbean has become better organized this morning. It has now been designated as Tropical Depression 7. Satellite images have shown well-defined curved bands of convection and the possible development of an eye. If aircraft reconnaissance confirms the impressive appearance of this feature, it could become Tropical Storm Gustav later today. At this point, there is considerable uncertainty in the track forecast, but the official path takes what would then be Gustav at tropical storm strength to the northern coast of Cuba by Friday.