October Snow: Historical Context

The current October snowfall in the northeastern U.S. has certainly been impressive, particularly in the areal extent, but the historical record shows that autumn snowstorms were both earlier and more frequent in the mid-19th century. In his definitive history, "Early American Winters", David Ludlum lists records of early season snowfalls in 21 of the 50 years from 1821 to 1870, including many in September and several in late August. The mid-1830's were particularly prolific, with 3 events before the middle of October in 1836, including at least "some snow" as far south as South Carolina.

1821: Oct. 25-26, Salem MA: "sufficient to cover the ground"

1823: Sept. 29, Worcester County MA: "snow in several parts of the county"

1829: Sept. 3, Sherburne VT: "an inch and a half deep"

1832: Aug. 25-26, New Hampshire: "White Mountains covered by snow apparently several inches deep"

1833: Oct. 30, Somerset PA: "Two inches snow, the fourth fall of the autumn"
Oct. 29-30, Philadelphia PA: "Houses whitened by snow"

1835: Sept. 30, northern New England: 6-12" in Franklin County, Vermont; 6" at Kilkenny New Hampshire

1836: Sept. 28: Hamilton NY 4", Bridgewater NY 3", Rochester NY 1"
October 5-6: Onondaga County NY 2 feet, Auburn NY 24-26" Cortland NY 18", Hollidaysburg PA 26", Sideling Hills MD 10", Loudoun County VA 5", Yorkville SC "some snow"
October 11-12: Hamilton NY 35" "measured as it fell", Madison NY 12", Bridgewater NY 18", Oxford NY 12"

[More reports to be added later]

White Christmas? Record Snowfalls in Northwest, Northeast

Image: Current snow depth as of 7 am EST today from Intellicast/WSI (click to enlarge)

The recent snowstorms have set daily snowfall records at several locations in the Pacific Northwest and New England.

Dec. 22:
Caribou, ME . . . . . . 12.4" (11.6", 1969)
Spokane, WA. . . . . . . 3.8" (2.1", 1952)
Lewiston, ID . . . . . . 2.4" (1.6", 1938)
Boise, ID. . . . . . . . 4.7" (2.4", 1988)
Missoula, MT . . . . . . 3.4" (2.5", 1993)

Dec. 21:
Portland, ME. . . . . . 14.5" (12.4", 1933)
Bangor, ME . . . . . . . 9.7" (7.0", 1995)
Hartford, CT . . . . . . 5.0" (2.6", 1975)
Worcester, MA. . . . . . 8.0" (6.0", 1954)
Burlington, VT . . . . . 9.1" (7.8", 1910)
Albany, NY . . . . . . . 6.6" (5.7", 1887) [Records began 1884]
LaGuardia Airport, NY. . 2.0" (1.7", 1962)
Buffalo, NY. . . . . . . 7.4" (4.0", 1914)
Pendleton, OR. . . . . . 7.4" (3.0", 1938)
Seattle-Tacoma Airpt, WA 3.0" (2.6", 1967)

The Dec. 20-22 storm was one of the top 5 snowstorms since 1940 at Portland, OR Airport:
1. 1950 JANUARY 22.0 INCHES
2. 1968-69 DEC-JAN 14.8 INCHES
3. 1951 MARCH 12.9 INCHES
4. 2008 DECEMBER 12.4 INCHES ******
5. 1980 JANUARY 11.4 INCHES
6. 1995 FEBRUARY 11.0 INCHES
7. 1964 DECEMBER 10.7 INCHES

In downtown Portland, where records date to 1880, this year's storm is not in the top 10:
1. 1893 JAN-FEB 31.8 INCHES
2. 1916 JAN-FEB 27.9 INCHES
3. 1884 DEC 22.3 INCHES
4. 1943 JAN 19.2 INCHES
5. 1919 DEC 17.5 INCHES
6. 1937 JAN-FEB 16.8 INCHES
7. 1980 JAN 16.3 INCHES
8. 1950 JAN 16.1 INCHES
9. 1890 JAN 13.2 INCHES
10. 1956 JAN 13.0 INCHES

DECEMBER 20-22 2008 SNOWSTORM.................10.0 INCHES

For some analysis of why extreme snowfalls, even for an entire season, may not have much significance for climate, see this earlier post regarding last season's records:

Shoveling Out From a Snow Job

Inauguration Weather Update: Coat Check Contrarian Indicator

With a little over a month to go, it's still too early to make a specific weather forecast for the Presidential Inauguration on January 20. In the meantime, however, here's a contrary indicator for cold weather from Monday's WaPo business section:

When a Coat Rack Is a Peacekeeper

Remembering the coat check chaos that erupted at President Reagan's coldest-ever inaugural in 1985, hotels and other venues have stocked up on hundreds of additional coat racks and thousands of coat hangers.

For what it's worth, despite a cold start, December here in the Nation's Capital is now averaging just 1.2° below the long-term "normal" with only a trace of snow so far. Stay tuned for more information as the weather crystal ball becomes less murky.

For inauguration weather background, see these previous posts:

• Inauguration Weather Update
  
• Political Climate: Inauguration Weather

Inauguration Weather Update

The National Climatic Data Center has some inauguration weather factoids in a special report from the 2001 Inaugural. Among the stats are the following:

• Average Noon Temperature when a Republican President is sworn in is 40.4 F.
  
• Average Noon Temperature when a Democratic President is sworn in is 33.0 F.

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center surveyed the history of inclement inaugural weather, also in 2001.

For more details on inauguration weather, see this earlier post.

Image: Benjamin Harrison inauguration, from Library of Congress via National Climatic Data Center

Political Climate: Inauguration Weather

Today's WaPo includes a graphic representation of presidential inauguration weather (click to enlarge):


Weather doesn't follow a 4-year cycle, so here are CapitalClimate charts of the detailed January 20 Washington, DC, temperature and precipitation records since 1933:





Note the large temperature range, from a high of 70° in 1951 (not an inauguration year) to a low of -2° for Reagan's second inaugural in 1985, the coldest inauguration in history. The long-term averages of 42° for a maximum and 27° for a minimum are equal to the coldest of the year in Washington.

The record precipitation for the date of 1.77" fell in 1937. An inch or more also occurred in 1979 and 1988, with 1995 close behind at 0.99". In all, 39 out of the last 78 years since 1930, or exactly 50%, have had at least a trace of precipitation on January 20.

The maximum snowfall on the date was 3.8" in 1975, although 7" fell the day before Kennedy's inauguration in 1961. At least a trace of snow fell in 23 years, or just under 30% of the time. Of those, 17 had measurable amounts, and 1" or more was observed 9 times. The maximum amount of snow on the ground was the 8" in 1961. There has been a trace or more of snow on the ground in 25 of the years since 1930, and 19 of those had at least an inch.

So, the bottom line of inauguration weather history is: If you're planning to attend the events, particularly those outdoors, be prepared with a variety of clothing and footwear.

Other references on inauguration weather history:

• National Weather Service, Presidential Inaugural Weather
• Maryland Weather, Inaugural weather can be d'icey

"Huge Snowfall Shuts Down D.C. Area"

Floral St. in Washington, Feb. 19, 1979. Click image to enlarge. (Photo © Washington Post, via WeatherBook.com.)

The greatest snowstorm in more than half [a] century left the Washington area smothered under at most two feet of snow yesterday -- a magnificent white menace that virtually imprisoned the city and sent road crews battling to reopen streets for this morning's commuters. [Washington Post, page A1, Feb. 20, 1979]

Today is the anniversary of the second-largest Washington snowstorm of the 20th Century. Now known as Presidents' Day I, following the Presidents' Day II storm of 2003, the storm was originally known as the Washington's Birthday storm.

Click here to read entire post.

Hanging Out on H Street

Now

The 3 H's of haze, heat, and humidity are hanging out in the Washington metro area this afternoon. As Matt noted earlier, this is hardly unusual for a DC July. Temperatures are mainly in the upper 80s, and dewpoints are in the upper 60s to low 70s. A weak band of scattered thundershowers well to the west has dissipated.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight will be warm and humid with lows in the upper 70s downtown to the low and mid 70s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will again be warm and humid, but with a little better chance (30%) of afternoon or evening thunderstorms and highs near 90.

Look for Larson's Long-Range late tonight/tomorrow for the extended outlook.

Tropical Topics

The low pressure area associated with some storms in the western Gulf of Mexico has remained over land, between Houston and San Antonio, so no tropical development is expected. However, it is bringing heavy rain and some gusty winds to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast and adjacent Gulf of Mexico.

An Accident at Sea Can Spoil Your Whole Day

Fifty years ago today, the Italian luxury passenger liner Andrea Doria sank after colliding the night before with the Swedish liner Stockholm in fog near Nantucket, killing 51 people. The event was the first major televised disaster, and it marked the end of the golden era of passenger ship travel. The roles of weather and the possible misuse of the then relatively new technology of radar are examined tonight in a new episode of the PBS "Secrets of the Dead" series. The program is broadcast locally on WETA, channel 26, at 8pm.

Image of Andrea Doria travel poster from PBS

Bridging the Seasons

Yesterday's high of 77 in Baltimore tied the record set in 1978, and the high of 77 also in Washington was only 1 degree short of the record set in 1948. It was a perfect day for 13,000 people to attend a simulcast of Porgy and Bess on the Mall.

As Jason said earlier, the air behind the cold front which passed through the Washington metro area last evening is still above normal for this time of year. Temperatures by mid afternoon today were in the mid to upper 60s, compared with a normal high for the date of 60. Nov. 6 (yesterday) is also the earliest date in the fall which has never reached 80. The low has failed to break 40 officially yet this season, although the normal low is now 42. In fact, every date in November has a record low below 30 degrees. Total heating degree days through yesterday were 50% below normal for the month and 27% below normal so far this season.

The tropics remain quiet.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight will be mostly clear, lows in the upper 40s city, low 40s 'burbs. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy with clouds increasing late in the day and highs near 70.

Eye in the Sky

The WaPo reports today that Bethesda-based Lockheed Martin is one of 3 companies each receiving a $10 million 6-month contract for the definition and risk reduction phase of development for the next generation of operational weather satellites, GOES-R. The new series of satellites is scheduled for launch in 2012. It will have significantly faster imaging and higher spatial resolution than current satellites.

A Troubled Bridge

The current issue of Weatherwise Magazine, which also has a redesigned web site, notes that today is the anniversary of the collapse of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge on Puget Sound in 1940. The bridge, which began oscillating as soon as it opened on July 1, eventually collapsed spectacularly 4 months later. Although wind caused the fatal oscillation, it was only in the range of 30-40 mph ahead of a Pacific storm entering the Northwest. The lessons learned from the bridge disaster have contributed to much safer designs for today's suspension bridges. PBS NOVA has a video of the bridge on their web site.

Hello, Columbus

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

Some peeks of sunshine through the clouds have pushed temperatures in the Washington DC metro area above the most pessimistic forecasts for today. At mid afternoon, temperatures were from the upper 60s to a few readings of 70. Radar shows a broken area of showers from northwest of Charlottesville south and east to near Richmond. The clouds in our area are associated with a stationary front extending from near the Outer Banks to just offshore of Cape Cod and northward to Nova Scotia. Some weak disturbances along the front are likely to produce some rain or showers as an area of spin ("vorticity") makes its way northeastward from the lower Ohio Valley. The heaviest precipitation is likely to be to the east of the metro area. However, the high amount of moisture in the air along with a source of upper-level energy and the already saturated ground combine to produce a threat of some flooding. At this point, we are less than 1.5" away from breaking the all-time October maximum precipitation record of 8.81".

Tonight and Tomorrow

Tonight will be cloudy with lows in the upper 50s and showers or occasional rain developing by morning. Rain is likely tomorrow with highs around 63. The most likely time for precipitation is from late morning through tomorrow evening.

Tropical Beat

Vince's brief reign as a hurricane has ended; peak winds this morning were down to 45 mph as the result of northwesterly shear and cool water temperatures around 22C (72F). It is now close to being Tropically Depressed at 40 mph. Vince is the earliest 20th "named" storm by 17 days. The only other one recorded since 1851 occurred on 10/26/33. That 1933 system was a tropical storm; it was followed by a minimal tropical storm (35 kt) which formed on Nov. 15 and lasted barely 48 hours.

The other areas of activity in the Atlantic are (1) an area of showers and storms from the eastern Caribbean, across the Lesser Antilles, and into the Atlantic, and (2) a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Neither of these appear favorable for tropical development.

Columbus' Hurricanes

Columbus' first voyage to the New World was made near the peak of hurricane season, but David Ludlum, in his classic book Early American Hurricanes 1492-1870 says, "the outstanding meteorological fact of the First Voyage is simply that no hurricanes or severe storms were encountered in the West Indies despite the fact that the fleet of three small vessels traversed an area of tropical storm activity at the season of their most frequent occurrence." Was this luck, as it is sometimes described? On the 500th anniversary of the famous voyage in 1992, 2 researchers looked at the record of known tropical storms and hurricanes from 1896 through 1989 in a paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. They found that only 4 times in those 104 years would the center of a storm have passed within 100 km of Columbus' fleet. Only one of those storms would have been a hurricane.

Bob Sheets and Jack Williams, in their book Hurricane Watch, describe how Columbus was not so fortunate on his later voyages. On his second trip, in 1495, Columbus and his crew became the first Europeans known to have experienced a hurricane, and 2 of his 3 ships were sunk off the coast of Hispaniola. He applied that experience on his fourth and final voyage in 1502, when he noted the signs of an approaching storm. He sent a message to the governor of the new Spanish colony requesting him to hold a fleet of 30 ships in the harbor at the capital of Santo Domingo. The ships had been preparing to sail back to Spain with cargoes of gold. He also asked permission to shelter his own four ships in port. The requests were denied because of political rivalry between the governor and Columbus, and the Spanish fleet set sail right into the path of the storm. Twenty-one of the ships sank, and 500 sailors were lost. A few of the surviving ships made it back to the damaged port of Santo Domingo; only one returned safely to Spain. Meanwhile, Columbus took shelter along the south coast of the island. Three of his ships lost their anchors, but all were able to ride out the storm safely.

Good afternoon, Charlottesville

Currently

Last night's rain showers were widely scattered and mainly confined to the south of the Washington metro area. The official rain bucket collected a minimal 0.01". As a weak low pressure area moves slowly off the Carolina coast, skies have cleared in the area. Temperatures were into the upper 50's by noon and lower 60's at 2pm. Here on the admittedly non-standard CapitalClimate Weather Patio, it's 65. In southern Virginia, where clouds and some light rain prevail, temperatures are only in the upper 40's.

Outlook

Under mainly clear skies, temperatures should be in the low 40's tonight, with highs tomorrow near 60.

NatCast
Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, 7:05pm on April 14, RFK
Outlook for the Nats' home opener: Light, mainly easterly breeze at game time; temperature 54, falling to about 50 by the 7th inning stretch. No rain!

Founding Father, Monticello Meteorologist

Today is the 262nd anniversary of the birth of Thomas Jefferson. The third President of the United States was a dedicated weather observer, recording the temperature at Monticello every day at dawn and at 4pm. He also recorded wind direction and speed and precipitation. The Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm of January 27-28, 1772, was so-named in recognition of the fact that it was recorded by both future presidents. Jefferson, who had just returned from his honeymoon, reported a snow depth of about 3 feet. According to David Ludlum's "Early American Winters", this was "the greatest snowstorm in the history of the middle and lower Potomac Valley." In 1776, Jefferson began to recruit volunteer weather observers around the state of Virginia. This was the forerunner of today's Cooperative Weather Program. The Thomas Jefferson award is the highest award for volunteer weather observation. No more than 5 of these awards are presented each year for "unusual and outstanding achievements." As President, Jefferson also created the Coast Survey (now the National Geodetic Survey), the country's first civilian scientific agency and the oldest component of what is now NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Current conditions in Charlottesville:
Clear skies, temperature 58.