Sixes Wild, Rain on the Way Return of the Nino?

Now

Cloudy, cool. No less than 6 out of the 10 local NWS Regional Roundup stations were reporting temperatures of 66° at mid afternoon today; the other 4 were a few degrees higher. After some very light rain (trace at National, 0.02" at Dulles) early this morning, skies are overcast throughout the area with rain on regional radar mainly south of Richmond.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Rain, cool. The chance of rain will increase from about 40% through midnight to near 100% by tomorrow morning. Rain or showers are likely to continue through early afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the low 60s, highs tomorrow in the low 70s.

For the outlook through Friday and the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

Storm Eight remains tropically depressed, with top winds of 35 mph as of 5pm, continuing to move away from the Cape Verde Islands. It is still expected to become a hurricane as it turns more northwestward this weekend.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for much of coastal eastern and southern Newfoundland from Post-Tropical Storm (Tempete Post-Tropicale) Florence. The major impact was being felt on the southern coast this afternoon. Some power outages were reported in St. John's as the storm moved eastward, brushing by Cape Race.

Photo of wind and rain in St. John's NL today from CBC

El Nino Returns?

NOAA issued an unscheduled El Nino advisory today, announcing that increasing Pacific Ocean temperatures in the last 2 weeks have led to a weak El Nino condition. This event is expected to continue into 2007, and it has the potential to become moderate this winter. Expected El Nino effects this winter

include warmer-than-average temperatures over western and central Canada, and over the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while drier-than-average conditions can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.

Little Sunshine Miss

Now

Partly Sunny. The decreasing clouds promised by yesterday's PM Update missed the schedule by about 6 hours, but some sun has broken through the overcast in most of the Washington metro area this afternoon. Despite the sun and a more southerly wind component, temperatures are near where they were yesterday at this time, mainly in the upper 60s. The nearest rain is in southwestern Pennsylvania.

Surface weather map and satellite picture at 2pm today from HPC/NCEP/NWS

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, cool. Clouds will increase again tonight as a low pressure area now in the lower Great Lakes approaches from the west with vigorous upper-air support. This will increase the chances of rain during the day tomorrow to 50% by late afternoon. Lows tonight will be near 60 downtown to the mid and upper 50s in the 'burbs; highs tomorrow will be near 69°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The newest player on the 2006 tropical scene is Tropical Depression 8. It formed this morning from a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa yesterday. Maximum winds of 30 mph increased to 35 mph as of 5pm.

Hurricane Florence is accelerating to the northeast as it becomes extratropical, or as they say in the Great North, "post-tropical". The last tropical advisory was issued at 5pm. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the eastern peninsulas and southern coast of Newfoundland. Although thousands remained without power this morning, Bermuda was returning to normal today, with minimal damage and no reports of injuries from the storm.

Tropical Storm Gordon continues to move north-northwest in the central Atlantic with maximum winds of 65 mph as of 5pm. It is expected to be no threat to land as it remains east of longitude 60W. (Bermuda is near 65W.)

Mediarology

The excellent PBS NOVA program on Katrina, "The Storm That Drowned a City", is being rebroadcast tonight on WETA, channel 26, at 8pm.

The dcrtv blog reports that weather will be broadcast along with community announcements and emergency information on the new radio station owned by the City of Fairfax on 1650 AM.

DC Damp, Cool Florence's Fury Bashes Bermuda

Now

Damp. The light rain and drizzle brought only a trace of accumulation to National and 0.02" to Dulles this morning. The low overcast and east winds have kept the temperature from getting beyond the upper 60s this afternoon, however.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Decreasing clouds, cool. Clouds will decrease by morning with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Tomorrow will feature a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low 70s.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

Hurricane Florence moved northward a little to the west of Bermuda this morning with maximum winds of 90 mph. The Bermuda airport reported sustained winds near hurricane force and gusts to 90 mph. Electric power was out for at least 23,000 customers. There were no immediate reports of injuries, but Jim Cantore was shown being dropped to his knees on The Weather Channel by heavy wind gusts this morning. The storm is expected to turn more eastward in the next couple of days, passing just southeast of Newfoundland. The storm's large size means that dangerous surf conditions will affect much of the East Coast, especially the Outer Banks.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 7 formed northeast of the Leeward Islands. It had maximum winds near tropical storm force at 35 mph this morning. Based on Air Force reconnaissance this afternoon, the storm was just upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon with peak winds of 45 mph. It is predicted to turn northward and pass east of Bermuda by this weekend.

Mediarology

Did you ever wonder what shoes the weathercaster wears? Check out the discussion on the MediaLine message board.

Summer Continues Going Out Like a Lamb

Now

Excellent. Temperatures in the Washington metro area were mainly in the low 80s at mid afternoon, although a few spots were only in the upper 70s. Dewpoints are quite pleasant, and the radar is dry for hundreds of miles in all directions.

Tonight and Tomorrow

More of same. Lows tonight under mostly clear skies will be near 65° downtown to some upper 50s in the cooler 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny with highs much like today's, in the low 80s.

Scroll down to Josh's post below for the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range.

Tropical Topics

Florence's expected strengthening has been delayed; maximum winds were still 50 mph through the 5pm advisory. The storm's large breadth, however, means that tropical storm force winds extend as much as 400 miles from the center. The forecast track continues to show it moving northward near, and to the west of, Bermuda. Recent forecasts have been bringing the track gradually closer to the island.

Climate Clues

A new study published in today's issue of the journal Nature offers more insight into the feedbacks associated with global warming, and the news is not good for advocates of complacency. The article, "Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to climate warming", describes the results from a new, more accurate, method of measuring the release of methane from thawing permafrost. The data show that the rate of methane emission may be 5 times as large as previously estimated. This is especially significant for the greenhouse gas budget of the atmosphere because tremendous quantities (tens of billions of tons) of methane have been stored in permafrost for tens of thousands of years, and methane is 23 times as effective in trapping heat as CO₂. The original article requires a subscription, but Nature has published an online news article discussing the results. Other news articles are available from:

• The Beeb: "Methane bubbles climate trouble"
  
• National Geographic: "Methane Belches in Lakes Supercharge Global Warming, Study Says"
  
• New Scientist: "Siberia's pools burp out nasty surprise"

(Both the Paper of Watergate and All the News That Fits We Print seem to have been content to join the Benton Crier in reprinting the Associated Press story online.)

Fine Late Summer Weather

Now

Improving. This morning's gloomy haze and mist have yielded to mainly sunny skies and temperatures in the pleasant mid 70s with only marginally muggy dewpoints in the low 60s. Radar at mid afternoon showed some very isolated showers from near Charlottesville to the Annapolis vicinity.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Very fine. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will be in the low 60s downtown to the mid and upper 50s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny and pleasant with seasonable highs in the low 80s.

Tropical Topics

Florence was looking more organized today, and the storm's strength increased to maximum winds of 50 mph this morning. It is still expected to become a hurricane, possibly by tomorrow, but the forecast track turns it northward near longitude 67W (southwest of Bermuda) this weekend.

Mediarology

Capitalweather.com's Andrew Freedman reports that The Weather Channel is starting a broadband climate channel called One°. You can display a preview with Dr. Heidi Cullen at their web site. The online channel is part of TWC's new "initiative to disseminate information on climate change and global warming", as described by Broadcasting & Cable's web site.

As part of this initiative, a new program called "The Climate Code" hosted by Dr. Cullen will begin broadcasting October 1. It will air at 5pm ET on Sundays.

In addition to weekly interviews with other scientists, policy makers, and opinion leaders, The Climate Code will feature segments highlighting different aspects of the world's climate. The features will examine what people can do to help the environment; debunk some of the popular myths around the climate; look at how scientific understanding has changed in recent decades; and explore technological advances that can benefit everyone.

Cullen's recent presentation to the National Association of Black Journalists in Indianapolis was reviewed by Boston Globe columnist Derrick Z. Jackson.

Photo of Heidi Cullen from climate.weather.com

Bad Hair Day

5:20 Update: Some bright sun is now breaking through here north of the Beltway in MoCo.

Now

Cloudy, damp. The heavy rains of this morning have been replaced this afternoon by a drizzle, heavy at times, which is hard to pick up on radar but is very noticeable on your glasses if you go out walking in it. National picked up a very respectable 1.73" of rain by 11am, and Dulles had 1.34". This means that in the last 5 days the total precipitation has already exceeded the average amount for September by over 0.6". Temperatures in the mid 60s and dewpoints to match have put the relative humidity near 100%, and fog has been very prominent in the Live Shot to the right. Here at Afternoon Blog Central in MoCo, however, the sky has been brightening quite a bit in the last hour or so.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Gradual dryout. Drizzle and possibly a shower or two should taper off overnight. Lows will be near where they are now in many places, mainly in the low 60s. Tomorrow will see gradually decreasing clouds and highs in the upper 70s.

Tropical Topics

TD 6 was named Florence as of 11am this morning. It was a minimal tropical storm with top winds of 40 mph; winds have increased to 45 mph as of the 5pm advisory. Florence is notable at this point for being rather large in area. This means that it will be slow to develop, but with favorable conditions, it could develop into a major hurricane, as some models are now suggesting. The expected track puts it well east of the Bahamas as a hurricane this weekend.

Photo of TD 6 around 7am this morning from NOAA GOES satellite, via NASA GSFC in Greenbelt.

"I Want My TWC"

If you couldn't find The Weather Channel at the usual channel 30 spot on Comcast Montgomery analog cable this morning, it's been moved to channel 98. The move is part of a large game of musical chairs to make room for MASN coverage of the Nats, along with the extra $2 a month being added to your bill as a result. Comcast's own CN8 news/entertainment channel is replacing News Channel 8. Among the other moves: banishing HBO from channel 38 to digital only. Comparable changes are also being made in the digital channel lineup and on other Comcast systems.