Tropical Storm Debby: Earliest 4th Atlantic "Named" Storm by 11 Days

Continuing the record early pace of the 2012 Atlantic tropical season, Tropical Storm Debby, named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at 5 pm today, is the earliest 4th named storm or equivalent of the season. According to the NHC historical storm database (dating back to 1851) and counting tropical cyclones prior to the introduction of names in 1950 as well as subtropical cyclones, the previous earliest 4th storm was Dennis, which originated on July 4, 2005. The average date for the 4th Atlantic storm of the tropical season is September 1.

Atlantic Tropical Season Quick Start: Beryl is Earliest "B" Storm on Record

May 26, 5 PM Update: The chart shows the date of formation for the second named Atlantic tropical cyclone of the season from 1950 through 2012. The average date through 2011 was August 1, so Beryl is nearly 10 weeks earlier than average.

Original post:
Although it's a hybrid subtropical storm, Beryl, which was named late Friday evening (May 25), is the earliest second storm of the tropical season on record in the Atlantic basin since names were assigned beginning in 1950. The previous earliest, and only other second storm as early as May, was Barry in 2007. Although it originated on May 31, Barry didn't reach tropical storm force until June 1. Prior to Barry, the earliest was Beulah on June 15, 1959. The latest was Bonnie on September 17, 1992.

Unanticipated Consequences: Hurricane Irene Claims Another Life

Hurricane Irene was 6 months ago, but its effects linger. From today's high-fiber edition of WaPo:

Calvert man is crushed by fallen tree’s root ball
By Carol Morello, Sunday, February 26,7:27 PM

A Calvert County man died Saturday afternoon when a root ball the size of a small car rolled onto him while he was cutting up a toppled tree, authorities said.

Brian W. Buck, 50, of Lusby was working on an oak tree that fell last August during Hurricane Irene, said Lt. Steve Jones of the Calvert County Sheriff’s Office. When a large log rolled into the hole where the tree once stood, Buck jumped into the hole to retrieve the log.

A root ball estimated to weigh more than 10 tons then rolled into the hole, crushing Buck. A backhoe operator was summoned to lift the root ball, Jones said. Buck was pronounced dead at the scene.

Irene's Impact: Costs Estimated $7 Billion, $3 Billion Insured

CNBC this afternoon reported that Hurricane Irene's economic impacts are likely to reach $7 billion, of which only $3 billion are covered by insurance. Out of 10 extreme weather events this year each costing a billion dollars or more, Irene ranks second or third.

Worldwide, the first 6 months of 2011 have already broken the record for natural disaster losses.

Great Hurricane of 1944: Irene's Billion-Dollar Grandma?

An analysis published by Blue Hill Observatory shows that 247 tropical cyclones have affected New England in some form since official records began in 1851. Of those, 90 have been hurricanes, but only 15 have made direct landfall on New England or Long Island, an average of less than 1 every 10 years. Only 6 have made landfall after 1944. The most recent was Bob on 8/19/1991. The others were Carol (1954), Edna (1954), Donna (1960), Belle (1976), and Gloria (1985).

As the forecast path of an intensifying Hurricane Irene has veered northeastward toward Long Island and New England, it has invited comparisons with the Great Hurricane of 1944. The extended forecast discussion on Tuesday from the NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center said:

AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL 

THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP 

DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH 

TRACK AND POSSIBLE 

INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE 

GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. 

The 1944 storm, first detected as a fully developed hurricane northeast of the Windward Islands on September 9, skirted the coast near Cape Hatteras before making landfall over eastern Long Island, passing over southeastern New England, and moving along the coast of Maine as an extratropical storm. At its maximum intensity, it was a Category 4 storm east of the Bahamas, diminishing to Category 1 at landfall.

The Monthly Weather Review describes the aircraft observation of the storm on the 12th east of the northern Bahamas:

A weather officer aboard an army reconnaissance plane which became involved in the storm estimated the wind at about 140 miles per hour. He reported turbulence so great that with the pilot and copilot both at the controls
the plane could not be kept under control, and several times it was feared it would be torn apart or crash out of control. When they returned to base it was found that 150 rivets had been sheared off on one wing alone.

Although the Great Hurricane remained offshore before reaching Long Island, it brought very strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Mid Atlantic coast. Highest winds at Cape Hatteras were 110 mph, and the barometer reached 947 mb (27.97 inches of mercury). As the storm moved east of Norfolk on September 14, the highest wind speed downtown was 73 mph, gusting to 90 mph. The 3.97" of rainfall set a record for the date which still stands. The lowest barometric pressure at Norfolk was 985.7 mb (29.11 inches of mercury). The sustained wind speed of 134 mph at Cape Henry in Virginia Beach was an all-time Virginia state record.

Inland, precipitation amounts were much lighter. Both Washington, DC (2.51") and Baltimore (3.15") set still-standing daily records from a stalled frontal system on the 13th, when the storm was still off the coast of Georgia, but received only token amounts from the hurricane itself (0.19" at Washington, Baltimore not available).

Further north, there was considerable damage along the New Jersey coast (see photos), although the center of the storm remained offshore. The University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography reports:

During the storm, New York City saw sustained hurricane force winds of 130 km/h (81 mph) with gusts up to 158 km/h (99 mph). Damages consisted of power outages, some lasting 10 days, and downed trees throughout the city. In nearby Long Island, damages totaled $1 million (1944 USD) on the eastern half of the island alone. The beach eroded up to 6 m (20 ft) in some places, causing houses to be taken by the sea. In Connecticut, the most significant storm impact was the heavy, widespread rainfall. Totals of around 178 mm (7 in) were seen in the Hartford area, but the city of Bridgeport saw the greatest official total at 272.8 mm (10.7 in). Tobacco and fruit damage in Connecticut totaled to about $2 million (1944 USD) with similar overall damage costs occurring in Rhode Island. Greater than $5 million (1944 USD) in damage done on Cape Cod can be attributed to lost boats, as well as fallen trees and utility damage.

Wind records to date were set at Atlantic City (91 mph from northeast), New York (99 mph), and Block Island (88 mph from southeast). The 3.94" of rain on the 13th and the 3.82" from the hurricane on the 14th combined to help make the month the 4th wettest September at Central Park, New York.

Total storm damage was estimated at $100 million, equivalent to roughly $1.2 billion in current dollars. Considering the limitations of observational and warning technology, the death toll from the storm on land was relatively low at 46. However, loss of life was much higher at sea, particularly in the early stages of the storm. Despite being warned that it was steaming directly into the hurricane, the destroyer USS Warrington (DD 383) lost power and sank on the 13th:

The water rushing into her vents caused a loss of electrical power which set off a chain reaction. Her main engines lost power, and her steering engine and mechanism went out. She wallowed there in the trough of the swells - continuing to ship water. She regained headway briefly and turned upwind, while her radiomen desperately, but fruitlessly, tried to raise HYADES. Finally, she resorted to a plain-language distress call to any
ship or shore station. By noon on the 13th, it was apparent that WARRINGTON'S crewmen could not win the struggle to save their ship, and the order went out to prepare to abandon ship. By 1250, her crew had left WARRINGTON and she went down almost immediately, stern first.

Out of the ship's complement of 20 officers and 301 men, only 5 officers and 68 men were rescued. Two Coast Guard cutters, a minesweeper, and the Lightship Vineyard Sound were also sunk by the storm.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Hurricane Irene projected threat level as of 11 am, August 25, from The Weather Channel
- Tracks of hurricanes making direct landfall on Long Island or New England, 1851 to present, from Blue Hill Observatory
- Full track of Great Hurricane of 1944, from North Carolina State University
- Mid Atlantic and New England track of 1944 hurricane, from North Carolina State University
- Total precipitation, September 12-15, 1944, by Paul Kocin, via NWS/HPC
- Building damage on Seaside Ave., Atlantic City, from Monthly Weather Review
- Paving damage on Seaside Ave., Atlantic City, from Monthly Weather Review

Irene Threat to New York, Northeast: Prof. Mandia Interview on CNBC

Prof. Scott Mandia tries to convey the specific risk of Hurricane Irene and the general threat of tropical storms to New York City and the Northeast while Brian Sullivan, formerly of Faux, interrupts on CNBC this evening:

Energy Market Shrugs Off NOAA's Above-Normal 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook

May 20 Update: Dr. Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seaosnal hurricane forecaster, conducted an online chat at USA Today's Science Fair blog this afernoon.

Original post:
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced its 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook at 11:30 this morning, calling for an above-normal level of activity:

• 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
• 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
• 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

The major factors affecting the tropical season include:

• Reduced wind shear and lower surface pressure over the tropical Atlantic
• Higher pressure in the upper atmosphere over the eastern Atlantic
• Warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures
• Stronger African easterly jet stream

As this video from CNBC at 11:45 shows, Mr. Market couldn't care less. "Til it happens, we're just going to play it by ear", said a veteran trader.



If you think the market mechanism is a rational way to set energy policy, have I got a deal for you:

Note that the horizontal scale covers just a little over 2 and a half hours. The offering price for LinkedIn was $45. This is for a company which has no earnings and revenues which are about 1/30 of the IPO offering price.

Update: From someone who should know a thing or two about Internet bubbles, Henry Blodgett, see:
CONGRATULATIONS, LINKEDIN! You Just Got Screwed Out Of $130 Million

Early Start to Tropical Season?

April 25 Update: NASA has a recap of the storm's demise (System 91L):
Fizzled Tropical Prospects: The Atlantic Low

April 21, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center has lowered the chances for tropical development from this system to 10%.

Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters agrees that the likelihood of development is low.

Original post:
Nearly 6 weeks before the traditional June 1 opening of tropical season in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center this afternoon issued a "Special Tropical Weather Outlook" for a low pressure area northeast of Puerto Rico:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER.  IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC.  ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. 

The NASA visible satellite image (click to enlarge) shows the storm at 17:45 UTC (1:45 pm EDT) today. The center of circulation is west of the largest area of clouds.

There has only been one named storm (or equivalent in the pre-naming era) in April since Atlantic tropical cyclone records began in 1851. That was Ana, which formed on April 18, 2003. There was one tropical cyclone in February 1952 and one in March 1908.

Super Cyclone Giri Strongest on Record to Hit Myanmar; Tropical Season Remains Active

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) has issued its last warning on Tropical Cyclone Giri after it made landfall earlier today on the coast of Myanmar (formerly Burma). The cyclone, which was a 60 mph tropical storm yesterday morning in the Indian Ocean, had reached the maximum Category 4 level of 155 mph within 24 hours. Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground reports that this was the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall on Myanmar.

Masters points out that although Giri was 20 mph stronger than devastating Cyclone Nargis in 2008, it fortunately struck a less populated area of the coast. Nargis killed an estimated 138,000 people.

NASA reports that the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite observed heavy rainfall rates of around 2" per hour before the storm reached maximum strength.

The UK Met Office notes that the Northern Hemisphere tropical season is still in full force worldwide: Tropical storm season remains active

Images (click to enlarge): TRMM satellite rainfall analysis of Cyclone Giri over the Bay of Bengal, from NASA; Cyclone Giri track from Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Record Pace of 2010 Hurricane Season Continues

5 PM Update: As of 5 pm EDT, Julia has weakened slightly to Category 3 (125 mph), but Igor remains at Category 4.

Original Post:
Although there has been minimal direct effect on the U.S., the 2010 hurricane season has been setting records for storm intensity. In his WunderBlog this morning, Dr. Jeff Masters notes the significance of Hurricane Julia's intensification to Category 4.

• Along with Hurricane Igor, which reached the maximum intensity of the Category 4 range last night, there are now 2 Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. The only other time this has happened was with the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four on September 16, 1926. On that occasion, the double Category 4 storms only overlapped for 6 hours. However, Julia became a Category 4 at 5 am this morning and is expected to remain at least at this intensity through the rest of Wednesday. Although Igor has weakened slightly, it is also expected to remain near its current strength for at least the next 24 hours.
• Another record, already set by Julia, is that it is now the strongest hurricane to develop this far east in the Atlantic (longitude 31.8W). Hurricane Earl was also the fourth strongest hurricane so far north.
• This season so far has the third highest number of Category 4 storms, behind 2005 and 1999, which had 5 each, but today is the earliest that a fourth Category 4 storm has formed. Julia's development beat Hurricane Gert of 1999 by 3 hours on the same date, September 15.
• The pace of Category 4 storms (4 in 20 days) is also a new record, beating the previous shortest span of 24 days in 1999.

Image (click to enlarge): GOES satellite infrared image shortly before 2 pm today (September 15) shows 3 tropical cyclones lined up along and near latitude 20N in the Atlantic and Caribbean: Tropical Storm Karl (left, over Yucatan Peninsula), Category 4 Hurricane Igor (right-center, between 50W and 60W longitude), Category 4 Hurricane Julia (right), from CIMSS/University of Wisconsin

Bonnie Lies Over the Ocean, Colin Lies Over the Sea; Revised 2010 Hurricane Forecast Still Shows Strong Season

Evening Update: Reconnaissance has determined that Colin has strengthened back to a tropical storm with peak winds of 60 mph. The official National Hurricane Center forecast track indicates a possible threat to Bermuda and then later to the Canadian maritimes, although the path of the center is currently expected to pass west of Bermuda and southeast of Newfoundland.

PM Update: As of 2 pm, the remnants of Colin are now getting a 70% chance of regenerating, and an Air Force reconnaissance flight has been sent to investigate.

Original post:
Following a strong early showing by Hurricane Alex, Tropical Storm Bonnie fizzled in the Gulf of Mexico after crossing southern Florida. The remnants of Tropical Storm Colin are now about 300 miles north of the Virgin Islands, where they are given a 50% chance of regaining tropical storm status.

As the usual peak of the hurricane season approaches, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center has lowered the high end of its forecast. The current prediction sets a 70% probability of:

• 14-20 Named Storms
• 8-12 Hurricanes
• 4-6 Major Hurricanes

A Major Hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher.

Yesterday, the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University released its revised hurricane season forecast:

• 18 Named Storms
• 10 Hurricanes
• 5 Major Hurricanes

Earlier, WSI, a division of The Weather Channel, also lowered its forecast to a similar range:

• 19 Named Storms
• 11 Hurricanes
• 5 Major Hurricanes

Although slightly lower than earlier forecasts, these all indicate a more active season than average. Overall, NOAA is forecasting a 90% chance of an above-average hurricane season. In addition to record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, this is also a reflection of the development of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is associated with a reduction in the wind shear in the Atlantic Basin which weakened Bonnie and Colin. There is also a long-term trend for more active hurricane seasons which began in 1995.

Images (click to enlarge): NOAA revised 2010 hurricane season forecast and associated climatic factors from Climate Prediction Center

First 2010 Atlantic Basin Tropical Depression Forms Possible Threat to Gulf of Mexico

The tropical wave which has been moving westward across the Caribbean has been declared a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center as of 6 pm EDT. If it develops further, it will become Tropical Storm Alex. This could happen as early as tonight or Saturday.

The forecast track brings the storm across the Yucatan Peninsula and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend. Based on the expected track, there is at least a 5% chance of tropical storm force winds nearly anywhere in the western half of the Gulf in the next 5 days.

Summary information at 6 pm:

LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W

ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES  

Image (click to enlarge): Probability of tropical storm winds for the 5 days beginning 2 pm EDT, June 25, 2010, from National Hurricane Center

Earlier this afternoon, CNBC reviewed the possible impacts of a tropical storm on the BP oil gusher cleanup and oil markets. "The timing couldn't be worse."

First Hurricane of 2010 Reaches Category 2 Strength Tropical Wave Has 50% Potential For Development

June 22 Update: The Caribbean tropical wave has not become better organized today, so the chances of development in the next 48 hours have been reduced to 20%. However, environmental conditions are likely to become more favorable for slow development as it continues to move westward.

Original post:
Celia, which became the first hurricane of the 2010 Eastern Pacific season early Sunday afternoon, has reached Category 2 strength as of 8 pm EDT today. The storm is centered a little over 500 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. It is moving west at about 8 mph. Although a more northerly track is expected later in the week, Celia is likely to remain well offshore.

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Basin, a strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean is now given a 50% chance of developing into a depression in the next 48 hours. If a storm does develop, it has the potential of eventually moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico.

Image (click to enlarge): Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook as of 8:15 pm EDT, June 21, from National Hurricane Center

2010 Hurricane Outlook: Heckuva Season, Brownie!

The 2010 hurricane season outlook, released this morning by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, calls for an 85% chance of above-average tropical activity. This would make the upcoming season the busiest since the record year of 2005, which had 28 named storms. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco said, "If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record." The forecast includes a 70% probability of the following ranges (historical averages in the middle and right columns):

	Forecast	Long-term	1995-2009
Named Storms	14-23	11	14.5
Hurricanes	8-14	6	8
Major Hurricanes	3-7	2	4

The major factors expected to produce the high level of tropical activity are:

• Favorable upper level winds: Wind shear (change in wind with height) is expected to be low since the El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have dissipated.
• Warm sea surface temperatures: Atlantic Ocean temperatures are at record high levels, as much as 4° above average.
• Continuing high activity era: Eight of the 15 seasons since 1995 are in the top 10 list for named storms.

As far as storm landfalls are concerned, NOAA's outlook says that "it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season."

Weather Channel video report on the hurricane season outlook is here:



Possible impacts of the hurricane season on oil and natural gas prices were discussed within the past hour on CNBC:



From Reuters:
US govt warns of worst hurricane season since 2005

From Palm Beach Post Eye on the Storm blog, including a video clip of the NOAA announcement:
Another prediction of a “really bad season”

2010 Hurricane Season Outlook Delayed Stupid Pet Tricks Mock Hansen

The Florida Sun-Sentinel Storm Center blog reports that NOAA's 2010 hurricane season outlook, scheduled to be released today, has been delayed until next week. No reason was given. Last year's outlook was announced on May 21. Hurricane season begins officially on June 1.

Hurricane Preparedness Week begins on Sunday, May 23, with a focus on the history of notable storms. Other topics include the triple threats of storm surge, high winds, and inland flooding; the forecast process; preparedness; and taking action.

The Central Pacific hurricane season outlook, released yesterday, calls for a below-average tropical cyclone threat to Hawaii. It predicts a "70% chance of a below normal season, a 25% chance of a near normal season, and only a 5% chance of an above normal season."

Meanwhile, a ClimateWire article, reposted by the New York Times, considers the effects of a hurricane on the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico:
Researchers Ponder a Hurricane Hitting the Oil-Slicked Gulf of Mexico

NOAA talking points list a number of open questions, such as whether the oil plume could affect storm formation by suppressing evaporation of Gulf water and how a hurricane could change the size and location of the oil slick. There's little information about what would happen if a hurricane hit the spill, experts said.

Still, several scientists are worried that a hurricane could drive oil inland, soiling beaches and wetlands and pushing polluted water up river estuaries.

In the Stupid Pet Tricks department, NBC Miami reports that a right-wing political lobbying organization, The National Center for Public Policy Research, is using the opportunity to mock climate scientist James Hansen (and conflate weather with climate) by having a chimpanzee roll dice to predict the number of hurricanes for the season:
No Monkey Business: Primate Predicts Busy Hurricane Season

More Turbulence in Weather Mediasphere

Ken Kaye reports in the Florida Sun-Sentinel's hurricane blog that long-time Weather Channel tropical expert Steve Lyons is leaving that position. Rick Knabb, formerly a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, will replace Lyons for the 2010 hurricane season, which begins in less than 6 weeks. Lyons will be the meteorologist in charge of the San Angelo, Texas office of the National Weather Service.

Dr. Lyons posted the following to his Facebook page:

I've really enjoyed my 12 hurricane seasons at The Weather Channel. I thank all of you for your viewing support, web interactions and for joining my facebook page. I'm returning to the National Weather Service where I will help make weather forecasts that save lives and property. I am extremely excited about my new opportunity; I’ll see you in the Lone Star State soon! Sincerely, Dr. Steve

The Weather Channel's announcement stated, in part,

Geoffrey Darby, executive vice president of programming for The Weather Channel, said, "Rick brings tremendous experience to this role and is no stranger to high profile hurricane activity, having worked with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the record-setting 2005 Atlantic season. He will help lead our on-air and cross-platform tropical coverage, providing continuous updates as hurricanes and tropical storms develop."

As a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005-2008, he prepared and issued official forecasts and warnings during the 2005 hurricane season with Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Perhaps most notably, Dr. Knabb signed the advisory announcing that Katrina had become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. He also served as NHC's science and operations officer from 2001-2005.

Most recently, Dr. Knabb has been deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. While there, he led the development and implementation of the first-ever joint CPHC/FEMA hurricane preparedness course for emergency managers. Throughout his career in NOAA, in addition to personally preparing and issuing more than 200 official tropical cyclone operational forecast packages, Dr. Knabb has been involved in emergency management, military and academia collaboration, technology incorporation, and public speaking and media interviews.

Image: New Weather Channel tropical expert Rick Knabb, from Florida Sun-Sentinel

2010 Hurricane Season Forecast: More Active

The WaPo's wishcasting Washington weather weenies are still generating a hype-o-cane of hyperventilation over the minimal possibility of some of the weather s-word on Saturday, but Bloomberg's Business Week reports that WSI Corp. has issued their early outlook for the 2010 hurricane season. They are predicting an above-average number of named storms, making this year much more active than 2009:

         Total storms Hurricanes Major
2010      13             7         3
2009       9             3         2
Average   11             6         2  

WSI's statistical landfall model suggests that Georgia and the Carolinas are the most likely areas to see a hurricane landfall in 2010.

WSI will issue a hurricane season update on April 12; the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center will issue its outlook in May.

Disorganized Danny Diminishes Danger: Weak Tropical Storm Expected to Bypass East Coast

A low-pressure trough to the west has provided wind shear and dry air to keep Tropical Storm Danny at minimal strength. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance this afternoon indicates the storm's maximum winds remain at 40 mph with some higher gusts. After stalling earlier in the day, Danny was moving north at 6 mph from a position about 330 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as of 5 pm.

A more north-northeasterly track and increase in forward speed is likely to take the storm east of the Outer Banks early Saturday and offshore of New England Saturday night, then near the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. Some slight strengthening is possible in the next 24 hours, but the storm will be moving into an area of unfavorable conditions for development, and it is expected to lose its tropical characteristics within 36 hours.

Rainfall in excess of 80 mm is expected in portions of the Maritimes.

Image (click to enlarge): Tropical Storm Danny forecast track from National Hurricane Center; Rainfall forecast from The Weather Network

Danny Develops: Tropical Storm Potential Threat to East Coast

Tropical Storm Danny developed this morning from an area of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the Bahamas. The storm is expected to develop into a hurricane which could potentially threaten the East Coast within 3 to 5 days.

At 11 am EDT, the storm was moving west-northwest at 18 mph from a position about 775 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras. Forward speed is expected to decrease through tomorrow. Based on NOAA aircraft reconnaissance, maximum winds are 45 mph; some slow strengthening is possible in the next couple of days, and the storm could become a hurricane off the North Carolina coast.

The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows a 30% or greater probability of tropical storm force winds along much of the East Coast from North Carolina northward.

Wild William Wanes, Waxes Hurricane Bill Fluctuates in Strength, Threatens Bermuda, Maritimes

After having reached Category 4 with maximum winds of 135 mph, Hurricane Bill weakened to as low as 120 mph this morning and is now back up to 125 mph. The storm continues on a path which should take it between the East Coast of the U.S. and Bermuda, then close to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. At 5 pm, the Bermuda Weather Service upgraded its Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning, and a Hurricane Watch is also in effect. High waves and dangerous rip currents are likely to affect Bermuda and much of the U.S. East Coast in the next couple of days.

The storm is moving steadily northwest at 18 mph from a position a little less than 600 miles south of Bermuda. A more northerly turn is expected by Saturday.

Image (click to enlarge): Hurricane Bill forecast track from National Hurricane Center