Hanna Rainfall: Deep, but Narrow

Total rainfall for 24 hours ending 8 am, Sept. 8, 2008



Eastern Region


Eastern Maine


Southern Maine/New Hampshire


Southern New England


New York City Region


Philadelphia Region


Washington DC/Baltimore Region


Southern Virginia

Dangerous Hurricane Ike Threatens Bahamas, Cuba, Florida Keys

Hurricane Ike has maintained its Category 4 strength as it heads through the southeastern Bahamas toward eastern Cuba. Aircraft reconnaissance this morning has found little change in the central pressure or the maximum winds of 135 mph.

At 11 am, the center of Ike was located very near Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas. The storm's generally westward track will bring it near or over eastern Cuba tonight. As Ike continues westward, the storm will weaken somewhat over Cuba, but it is expected to regain strength after it moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Florida Keys, and evacuations have been ordered.

Tropical Storm Hanna continues to race off to the northeast, leaving behind widespread heavy rains and flooding. The storm has now lost its tropical characteristics as it moves northeast at 36 mph toward the Canadian Maritimes. Heavy rainfall warnings are in effect for New Brunswick, portions of Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland.

The center was located about 60 miles north of Chatham, Massachusetts at 11 am. On its current track, the remnants of Hanna will pass over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and on into the North Atlantic, reaching a position northwest of Ireland late in the week.

Images (top to bottom): Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, Ike and Hanna forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Hanna Brings Flooding Rains

The following rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Hanna were reported for the 3 hours ending at 5 pm:

Washington National 0.49"
Dulles 1.20"
Baltimore-Washington International 0.11"

Reports for the 6 hours ending at 2 pm were:

Washington National 2.98"
Dulles 3.85"
Baltimore-Washington International 1.50"
Richmond 1.54"

Here are some preliminary storm total rainfall amounts, reported by the National Weather Service:

MARYLAND

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
BALTO/WASH INTL 1.61 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
JACKSONVILLE 2.83 300 PM 9/6 COCORAHS OBSERVATION
TOWSON 2.00 152 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
NANJEMOY 5.00 157 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
NEW MARKET 3.21 300 PM 9/6

...HARFORD COUNTY...
FALLSTON 2.71 154 PM 9/6 SPOTTER
BEL AIR 2.00 217 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
ROCKVILLE 3.63 215 PM 9/6 COCRAHS OBSERVATION

...PRINCE GEORGE`S COUNTY...
OXON HILL 2.56 230 PM 9/6

...ST. MARY`S COUNTY...
PARK HALL ESTATES 1.77 145 PM 9/6 COCRAHS OBSERVATION

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
SMITHSBURG 1.36 145 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.24 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
REAGAN NATIONAL 3.62 300 PM 9/6 DCA AIRPORT

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
ALEXANDRIA 6.35 253 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
OAKTON 7.83 303 PM 9/6 MESONET
ANNANDALE 7.04 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
FAIRFAX 5.90 225 PM 9/6 SKYWARN
ANNANDALE 5.89 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
RAVENSWORTH 5.50 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
WASH DC/DULLES 4.66 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
MIDLAND 3.75 215 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...KING GEORGE COUNTY...
KING GEORGE 4.37 245 PM 9/6

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
STERLING 5.50 155 PM 9/6 NWS STERLING
LUCKETTS 4.00 230 PM 9/6
LOVETTSVILLE 2.19 200 PM 9/6 SKYWARN

...MADISON COUNTY...
SHELBY 2.08 145 PM 9/6 IFLOWS GAGE

...PAGE COUNTY...
BIG MEADOWS WAYSIDE 2.32 145 PM 9/6 IFLOWS GAGE

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
WOODBRIDGE 8.34 300 PM 9/6 COCORAHS OBSERVATION
HAYMARKET 3.05 230 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

NORTH CAROLINA

...ALAMANCE COUNTY...
BURLINGTON 2.95 145 PM 9/6 BUY ASOS

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
FAYETTEVILLE 4.62 145 PM 9/6 FAY ASOS
SPRING LAKE 2.65 200 AM 9/6 FORT BRAGG

...FORSYTH COUNTY...
WINSTON SALEM 0.83 145 PM 9/6 INT ASOS

...GUILFORD COUNTY...
GREENSBORO 1.32 145 PM 9/6 GSO ASOS

...HALIFAX COUNTY...
ROANOKE RAPIDS 1.87 145 PM 9/6 RZZ ASOS

...JOHNSTON COUNTY...
EMIT 5.42 1230 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...MOORE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN PINES 6.68 100 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...NASH COUNTY...
ROCKY MOUNT 2.57 145 PM 9/6 RWI ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
CHAPEL HILL 4.96 145 PM 9/6 IGX ASOS

...SCOTLAND COUNTY...
LAURINBURG 5.74 145 PM 9/6 MEB ASOS

...WAKE COUNTY...
RALEIGH 5.19 145 PM 9/6 RDU ASOS
RALEIGH 4.77 200 PM 9/6 NWS OFFICE

...WAYNE COUNTY...
GOLDSBORO 2.19 200 AM 9/6

Hanna Moving Up East Coast Ike Threatens Bahamas, Cuba, Florida

5 pm Update: At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Hanna was centered near Cambridge, Maryland on the Delmarva peninsula. Hanna continues to race off to the northeast at 28 mph. Rain has mostly ended in the Washington, DC metro area, but heavy rain continues from extreme northeastern Maryland through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and into New England.

Reconnaissance has shown that Hurricane Ike is back to extremely dangerous Category 4 with maximum winds of 135 mph. Ike is continuing to move toward the west southwest at 15 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and eastern Cuba. Although Ike could still threaten southern Florida, it's looking increasingly likely that the storm will move on past Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

2 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Hanna has now moved to near Williamsburg, Virginia, approaching the lower Chesapeake Bay. Maximum winds are still 50 mph, and the storm is moving northeast at 25 mph. Little change in strength is expected today, but Hanna will be losing tropical characteristics by Sunday.

Based on aircraft reconnaissance reports, Hurricane Ike has regained Category 3 strength with winds of 115 mph. Ike continues on a west southwest track at 15 mph, heading toward the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Ike is a fairly compact storm, with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds up to 125 miles.

Original post:
After making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border around 3:20 am, Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly moving up the U.S. East Coast. At 11 am, the center of Hanna was near Emporia in southern Virginia. The storm is moving north northeast at an accelerating rate of 24 mph. This track will take the storm to the vicinity of southern New England by tonight and the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday night.

Maximum winds are down to 50 mph, but tropical storm winds extend as far as 200 miles from the center, with the strongest winds in the eastern portion of the storm. A Tropical Storm Warning extends along the Mid Atlantic coast to southern New England. Warnings and watches, including Flash Flood Warnings, have been issued for the local areas affected.

Hurricane Ike has been lowered to a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 110 mph as it continues moving west southwest toward the Bahamas, with a turn more toward the west expected on Sunday. Ike is then expected to pass near or over the northern coast of Cuba, eventually reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Although fluctuations in strength are likely, Ike is expected to regain major hurricane status in the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Josephine was downgraded to a depression Friday night, and the last advisory was issued for the storm early Saturday. Maximum winds are down to 30 mph, and further slow weakening of the remnants is expected over the next two days.

Images (top to bottom): Tropical Storm Hanna radar and satellite views from The Weather Channel, Hanna and Hurricane Ike track forecasts from National Hurricane Center.

PM Update: Hanna Near Hurricane Strength;Fifth Consecutive U.S. Landfall to Tie a Record

11 pm Update:Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly toward landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including New York Harbor and Long Island Sound. Maximum winds are still 70 mph. The center is moving north at 20 mph from a position about 140 miles south southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina.

5 pm Update: Tropical Storm Hanna's circulation has become more symmetric during the day, and the latest aircraft reconnaissance confirms that it is just below hurricane strength. The storm's effects are now reaching the coast of the Carolinas as it moves northward at 20 mph. The center was located about 240 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina at 5 pm.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Merrimack River, Massachusetts, and various other watches and warnings remain in effect from the Southeast through the Mid Atlantic. See the link in the original post below for local watches and warnings.

Despite all the focus on Hanna, Hurricane Ike remains a dangerous Category 3 storm. The first reconnaissance of Ike this afternoon has put the maximum winds a little lower, at 115 mph, but restrengthening is likely in the next couple of days. Ike continues on a generally westerly course. There is a large uncertainty in the eventual track, but it's looking increasingly likely that Ike could move on into the Gulf of Mexico after threatening either southern Florida or Cuba.

Josephine continues to weaken; it's down to 40 mph.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna has continued to become better organized today, and aircraft reconnaissance has found maximum winds of 70 mph as of 2 pm. On the other hand, the center has been located farther east than earlier reported. The storm is now moving north at 20 mph from a position 310 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina.

Various watches and warnings are in effect for large portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts, including the Chesapeake Bay. Local watches and warnings have been issued by National Weather Service offices in the affected areas.

Jeff Masters points out in his blog that Hanna will be the fifth consecutive named storm to hit the U.S. this season. That ties a record which has been matched 5 times in the past, most recently in 2004:

2004 (Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne)
2002 (Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Isidore)
1985 (Gloria, Henri, Isabel, Juan, and Kate)
1979 (Bob, Claudette, David, Elena, and Frederic)
1971 (Doria, Edith, Fern, Ginger, Heidi)

If Ike makes a landfall in the U.S. as well, it would set a new record.

Scroll down to the previous post for details on major Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Josephine.

Images (top to bottom): Tropical Storm Hanna satellite image from The Weather Channel; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Hanna Accelerates Toward U.S. CoastWarning Area Extended Northward

Watches and Warnings from Southeast to Mid Atlantic

11 am Update: The Tropical Storm Warning for Hanna has been extended northward and is now in effect from Altahama Sound, Georgia all the way to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including all of Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Potomac, Washington, DC, and Delaware Bay. Local watches and warnings have been issued by National Weather Service offices in the affected areas.

Although Hanna is looking better organized, maximum winds remain at 65 mph. Movement is toward the north at 20 mph from a position 375 miles south southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Ike and Josephine have both weakened slightly. Ike's forecast path has been shifted a little to the south, which could bring it around the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna is accelerating toward the Southeast U.S. coast this morning. Maximum winds remain at 65 mph. The center of Hanna's broad circulation was about 425 miles south of Wilmington, NC at 8 am, headed northwest at 18 mph. The track is expected to turn more toward the north today, along with an increase in forward motion.

Tropical storm watches and warnings and a hurricane watch are in effect for a large portion of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts from Georgia to New Jersey. Although Hanna could become a minimal hurricane before landfall, that is increasingly unlikely.

In the Mid Atlantic region, Maryland, DC, and Virginia governments responded to flash flood and tropical storm watches with emergency preparations for the expected heavy rain and wind. This provoked the usual asinine commentary from the anonymously ethereal rabble.

Hurricane Ike continues to be a major storm, although it has dropped a notch overnight to Category 3. Maximum winds are 125 mph. Although some weakening is forecast in the short term, Ike should still be a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and then possibly southern Florida, Haiti, or Cuba.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak, but maximum winds are up a little to 50 mph.

Images (top to bottom): Hanna satellite view from The Weather Channel; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Tropical Storm Hanna Watches and Warnings Extended

11 pm Update: Tropical Storm Hanna continues to move northwest toward the Southeast U.S. coast. At 11 pm, it was moving at 14 mph from a position 540 miles south of Wilmington, NC. Maximum winds are still 65 mph, although satellite images show that Hanna is a little better organized than earlier in the day. Another reconnaissance flight will check out the area in a few hours.

Hurricane Ike is still a major Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 135 mph. It's moving on a due west course at a speed of 14 mph with a turn more toward west southwest expected on Friday. The forecast track continues to take the storm through the Bahamas with a possible landfall in southern Florida by early next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak; maximum winds are 45 mph.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna has been attempting to organize its circulation pattern today while maximum winds remain at the strong tropical storm level, 65 mph. Although Hanna could potentially reach hurricane force before landfall, that is unlikely.

A Hurricane Watch has been extended for portions of the Carolinas, however, in recognition that there is very little difference between a strong tropical storm and a minimal hurricane. Tropical storm warnings and watches have also been extended from as far south as the Georgia coast to New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac, and Washington, DC.

Hurricane Ike is still a Category 4 storm, but maximum winds are now a little lower at 135 mph. Ike is expected to fluctuate in intensity, but it should still be a very strong hurricane when it arrives in the vicinity of the Bahamas late in the weekend. After that, Ike could do anything from remaining out to sea to hitting Florida or Cuba, or even moving on into the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak with winds of only 45 mph.

Images (top to bottom): 24-hour precipitation forecast ending 8 pm Saturday from National Weather Service; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Tropical Trio: Southeast Watches Haggard Hanna Powerful Ike Stronger, Josephine Weakens

This morning's tropical trio review finds a weakened Tropical Storm Hanna still capable of threatening the Southeast Coast, an even stronger Hurricane Ike, and a weaker Josephine.

Tropical Storm Hanna's satellite appearance this morning is looking extremely disheveled. Very dry air to the north has choked off the convection at the core of the storm. Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development through today, but strengthening to hurricane force is still possible as the storm moves northwestward at a faster rate toward the Southeast U.S. coast. Tropical storm and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the Georgia coast through the Carolinas.

Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Ike strengthened even more overnight to as high as 145 mph, but it's down slightly in the latest advisory to 140 mph. It is expected to remain strong as it continues in a westerly direction generally toward the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to weaken a little more as it moves west northwest. Some fluctuation in strength is possible, but the storm is expected to remain weak.

Hurricane Forecasting Science

Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Center was interviewed last night on NPR's All Things Considered on the subject of hurricane track and intensity forecasting.

Hurricane Ike Goes Major, Now Extremely Dangerous Category 4

While Hanna has been getting its act together near the Bahamas, Hurricane Ike further out in the Atlantic has been rapidly intensifying. As of 8 pm, Ike was a major Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 115 mph. By 11 pm, it was a Category 4 at 135 mph. Ike has gone from tropical storm to Category 4 in 12 hours. This is now the third major hurricane of the season. Ike's generally westward track should bring it near the Bahamas this weekend.

Tropical Storm Hanna's maximum winds are 65 mph as of 11 pm. It is expected to regain hurricane strength in the next couple of days as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. Various hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Bahamas. After hammering Haiti with more flooding rains, Hanna has caused power outages in the Bahamas.

Josephine has weakened again, and it is expected to continue doing so. Its maximum winds are now down to 50 mph.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, tracks of Ike, Hanna, and Josephine from National Hurricane Center

Tropical Triplets Trek On Hanna Targets Southeast Coast

5 pm Update: Ike Becomes a Hurricane, Hanna Accelerates Northward, Josephine Weakens

Ike has strengthened to a hurricane with maximum winds of 80 mph. It is forecast to become a major hurricane as it moves generally westward toward the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Hanna remains at 60 mph, but it is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves northwestward near the Bahamas, then more northward toward the Southeast coast. The most likely landfall is in the Carolinas. Rain from Hanna is predicted to be as much as 3" in portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by Saturday.

Tropical Storm Josephine has been weakened by strong wind shear and dry air. It now has maximum winds of 60 mph and is forecast to weaken further by tomorrow. At this point, Josephine is unlikely to become a hurricane.

11 am Update:

• Hanna has become larger, but not stronger, and is now turning northward at 6 mph.
  
• Ike is nearly a hurricane at 70 mph.
  
• Josephine is also a little stronger with winds of 65 mph.

Earlier post:
The triple tropical storms Hanna, Ike, and Josephine continue at much the same strength this morning, although Josephine has intensified a little.

Tropical Storm Hanna, with maximum winds of 60 mph, has been moving erratically, but it seems to be completing a tight loop. As the upper level circulation pattern to the north becomes readjusted, Hanna is expected to gradually turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed and strengthen. On the forecast track, it will pass through the Bahamas and approach the Southeast Coast by Friday. Landfall is possible as a hurricane anywhere from south-central Florida to the Carolinas, but the most likely target at this point is South Carolina. Once inland, a weakening Hanna should bring moderate to heavy rain through the Mid Atlantic area and the Northeast.

Tropical Storm Ike has maximum winds of 65 mph and continues moving west northwestward from a position about 835 miles east northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Josephine, which has strengthened a bit to winds of 60 mph, is further east in the Atlantic, about 220 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Josephine is also moving west northwest.

Images (top to bottom): 24-hour precipitation forecast ending 8 pm Saturday from National Weather Service; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Tropical Attention Shifts to Atlantic Coast

5 pm Update: Hannah Weakens, Ike and Josephine Strengthen;
Florida declares state of emergency

Aircraft reconnaissance confirmed that Hanna weakened further this afternoon to maximum winds of 65 mph as it meandered slowly southward near the southern Bahamas. Some strengthening along with a turn to a more northwesterly direction are expected. Hanna could become a hurricane again in the next couple of days.

The complexity of the upper level circulation pattern around Hanna means that there is greater uncertainty in the intensity forecast than usual. However, Hanna is still expected to reach the Southeast U.S. coast somewhere from central Florida to the Carolinas as a Category 1 hurricane by the weekend. In anticipation of Hanna's arrival, CNN reports that Florida has already declared a state of emergency.

Tropical Storm Ike's maximum winds increased to 65 mph as it trucked along in the tradewinds at a brisk 17 mph. It has a good chance of becoming a hurricane within 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Josephine now has winds estimated at up to 50 mph as it moves westward away from the Cape Verde Islands. Josephine has very favorable water temperatures and wind shear conditions, so it is expected to become a hurricane within a couple of days.

Original post:
As Gustav loses its tropical identity, a new storm has formed in the Atlantic, so there are still three active tropical cyclones. The one with the most immediate threat to land is Hanna, which is expected to reach the Southeast U.S. coast and interior Mid Atlantic area after affecting the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Gustav weakened to a depression overnight. Tropical advisories are no longer being issued on the storm, but it's still expected to be a prolific rain maker in the interior of the Gulf Coast Region.

Hurricane Hanna was downgraded to a tropical storm. It's still being bashed by some upper level wind shear aided by the outflow from Gustav. Hanna is still capable of producing heavy rains over the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. Little change is expected in Hanna's 70 mph maximum winds through tonight, but it has a better chance of strengthening tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Ike has strengthened a little to maximum winds of 60 mph. It could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Josephine developed from Tropical Depression 10 this morning near the Cape Verde Islands in the far eastern Atlantic. It has maximum winds of 40 mph, and it has a chance of becoming a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Triple Tropical Trouble: Gustav, Hanna, Ike

Gustav Weakens, Hanna and Ike Strengthen

11 pm Update:

• Gustav has weakened to a tropical storm. Maximum winds are down to 60 mph.
  
• Hurricane Hanna has been meandering and is expected to move little through Tuesday. Maximum winds are still 80 mph.
  
• Tropical Storm Ike remains at 50 mph, continues moving west.

8 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav has continued to weaken today as it moves further inland. At 8 pm, the storm was a minimal Category 1 hurricane with winds of 75 mph. It was located in central Louisiana, moving northwest at 14 mph. Gustav will continue to bring heavy rains to portions of Louisiana, as well as southern and western Mississippi, northeastern Texas, Arkansas, southern Missouri, and southeastern Oklahoma. Isolated amounts up to 20 inches are possible.

Hanna has strengthened to a hurricane with maximum winds of 80 mph. It is now nearly stationary near the Caicos Islands. It is expected to gradually begin moving northwestward toward the central Bahamas in the next couple of days, eventually reaching the Southeast Coast.

As expected, Tropical Depression 9 became Tropical Storm Ike with maximum winds of 50 mph. It is located well out in the Atlantic, about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Ike's westerly track is likely to bring the storm near the southern Bahamas as a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.

As if that wasn't enough tropical excitement, a tropical wave even further out in the Atlantic, about 200 miles from the Cape Verde Islands, is showing signs of organization. It could pop out as Tropical Depression 10 at any time in the next couple of days. If it develops further, it would be Tropical Storm Josephine.

Original post:
The three levels of tropical cyclone are tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane. We now have all three active in the Atlantic basin. As Hurricane Gustav moves inland (scroll down to the previous post for details), Tropical Storm Hanna is looking much better organized this morning, and Tropical Depression 9 has formed about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

As of 11 am, Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened to maximum winds of 60 mph. It's moving west southwest around 5 mph towards the southeastern and central Bahamas. The future development of Hanna and its track are tricky. They depend on its interaction with a complex upper level circulation pattern, including the outflow from the weakening Gustav to the west. The current forecast, however, has Hanna strengthening to a hurricane over the Bahamas and threatening the Southeast Coast later in the week.

The just-issued initial advisory on Tropical Depression 9 puts its strength at 35 mph, but it is expected to become Tropical Storm Ike later today. The National Hurricane Center forecast takes the storm generally westward toward the Bahamas as a hurricane.

Images: Hanna satellite image from The Weather Channel (upper), Hanna (middle) and Ike (lower) tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Gustav Slightly Weaker, Still Dangerous

Hanna still weak, but bears watching.

Late PM Update: Hurricane Gustav is holding its Category 3 strength with 115 mph maximum winds as it approaches the Louisiana coast. Forward speed is slightly lower at 16 mph toward the northwest. At 11 pm, the storm was centered about about 220 miles southeast of New Orleans. On this track, Gustav will make landfall in the daylight hours Monday morning.

The lowest pressure, which had been dropping, has leveled off at 954 mb. Dropsonde observations show that drier air is moving into the center of the storm at middle and upper levels. Therefore, little change in intensity is likely before landfall.

8 pm Update:Tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Gustav are about to reach the coast of southeastern Louisiana, and hurricane force winds will reach the coast after midnight. The maximum strength of Gustav is unchanged, but reconnaissance indicates that the extent of hurricane force winds has expanded, especially in the northwest quadrant. The storm remains on track for landfall on the Louisiana coast on Monday.

Some intensification may occur tonight, but that is likely to be limited; satellite imagery indicates that dry air is wrapping into the circulation from the west and south.

5 pm Update: Hurricane Gustav remains a Category 3 storm at 5 pm with maximum winds of 115 mph. Some fluctuation in intensity may occur overnight, but the storm is expected to remain a major hurricane at landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.

The storm is located about 215 miles south southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi and is moving northwest at 18 mph. The forecast track has shifted slightly to the west, so the Hurricane Warning has been extended westward along the Louisiana and Texas coasts to east of High Island, Texas. Warnings now extend all the way from the Alabama/Florida border to east of High Island.

Although some strengthening is possible before landfall, several factors are working against it:

• Southerly wind shear at upper levels
  
• Dry air to the south and west
  
• Lower oceanic heat content as the storm moves away from the very warm Loop Current

Hanna Update

Ordinarily, a possible hurricane threat to the Southeast coast would get more attention, but Hanna has been overshadowed by big brother Gustav. Plagued by persistent wind shear, Hanna has remained a weak tropical storm. As of 5 pm today, maximum winds were 45 mph. It was moving west at 10 mph from a position about 140 miles east of the Bahamas.

Hanna's future is subject to some complicated interactions with the upper level flow pattern, but its prospects are strong enough for it to threaten the Bahamas as a tropical storm and potentially the Southeast U.S. coast as a hurricane later in the week.

Original post:
Hurricane Gustav has maximum winds of 115 mph as of 2 pm, based on aircraft reconnaissance. The storm continues to move northwest at 17 mph from a position about 270 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi. Gustav remains a dangerous Category 3 storm and some re-intensification, possibly to Category 4, is likely before the storm makes landfall as a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane force winds currently extend up to 50 miles, and tropical storm winds up to 200 miles, from the center.

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel (upper), Gustav track forecast from HAMweather (middle), Hanna track forecast from National Hurricane Center (lower)

Gustav Leaving Jamaica, Hanna Disorganized Both Expected to Strengthen

Tropical Storm Gustav weakened slightly overnight from its encounter with Jamaica, but it is now moving away from the island and is expected to strengthen today, possibly rapidly. Maximum winds at 11 am were at 65 mph. The center of the storm was located about 165 miles away from Grand Cayman Island and headed in that direction at 8 mph. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of western Cuba and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for central Cuba.

Gustav will be moving over very warm water in the northwestern Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions, so it is very likely to become a hurricane some time today. It could even become a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. One intensity model gives a 28% chance of an increase in strength of 30 knots or more in the next 24 hours. There is still wide disagreement among models on the final landfall point, so all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should remain alert.

Tropical Storm Hanna is somewhat disorganized as it passes north of the Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are 50 mph as of 11 am. Gradual strengthening is likely with the storm possibly becoming a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.

Gustav Economic Impacts

• After opening higher, natural gas prices are up a little less than 2% in mid day trading.
  
• WSJ Environmental Capital reviews yesterday's counterintuitive energy price action.
  
• StormWire says Gustav is Worst Threat to Oil Industry since Katrina

CNBC video reports this morning:

• Gustav & the Ports
• Anadarko Prepares for Gustav
• Gustav & New Orleans Tourism
  
• Gustav: Worst Case Scenario

Images: Gustav satellite view from The Weather Channel, Gustav and Hanna forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center