Spring Storm Registers Record Rainfall

Image (click to enlarge): Southern New England 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, March 15, 2010, from National Weather Service

March 15 PM Update: More record reports:

Boston blew away its record for March 14 with 3.40", far exceeding the 1.93" in 1958. This was also only slightly below the all-time March daily record rainfall of 3.49" on March 18, 1968, making it the second wettest March day in Boston history. The last time a 3" calendar day rainfall occurred in Boston was on May 13 and 14, 2006.

Worcester's 1.75" broke the March 14 record of 1.39" in 1986.

Portland, Maine had 2.27", breaking the record of 2.17" in 1951.

Providence tied its record for March 14 with 1.28".

Image (click to enlarge): Mid Atlantic region 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, March 14, 2010, from National Weather Service

March 14 PM Update: The daily rainfall record at Philadelphia was extended to 2.57". Here are some other new daily rainfall records for March 13 (old record and date in parentheses):

Mt. Pocono PA   1.04" (1.00", 1920)
Newark NJ       3.99" (2.71", 1993)
Central Park NY 3.86" (2.61", 1953)
La Guardia NY   2.88" (2.38", 1993 & 1953)

The new record for Newark is almost 50% above the old one, and it also sets a new all-time daily record for March since daily data began in 1929. The 2.42" at Islip, NY was just short of the 2.49" measured in 1984.

Original post:
A massive spring storm moving slowly along the Atlantic Coast is bringing some record rainfalls to the Mid Atlantic region:

• As of 4 pm, the daily rainfall of 2.30" at Philadelphia had already broken the March 13 record of 1.91" set in 1984.
• Also as of 4 pm, the 2.24" at Baltimore (BWI) was close to the 2.45" associated with the 11.3" of snow in the superstorm of 1993. An additional 0.08" fell in the following hour, bringing the daily total to 2.32".
• The 1.93" at Martinsburg, WV yesterday broke the March 12 record of 1.83" set in 1968.

In the immediate Washington DC area, amounts have been somewhat lighter, with 0.50" so far at Washington National and 0.21" at Dulles.

Retail Details: Don't Blame the Weather!

Despite snowstorms hammering the Mid Atlantic, Northeast, and even parts of the South in February, retail sales figures announced today were much better than expected, up 0.3% (0.8% excluding autos):



From the high-fiber media:

• Associated Press: Retail sales rise unexpectedly in February
• Financial Times: US retail sales show surprise rise
• Business Week: Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Rose in February
• Wall St. Journal: Retail Sales Post Strong Gain
• WaPo: MIA

Winter 2009-2010 Snowfall Review

For related posts, see:

• Record Snow
• Washington DC Weather Records
• Winter Weather

The Washington, DC 2009-10 snowfall season kicked off on December 5 with a slushy mess; officially, only 0.2" of frozen precipitation was measured. This was followed 2 weeks later by a record-setting storm on the 18th-19th. The 15" on the 19th broke the December daily record, and the storm total of 16.4" pushed the monthly total to a new December record of 16.6". After peaking at 16", snow depth on the ground declined rapidly in the following week, disappearing by the 26th.

Except for 1" on the 8th, January remained virtually snowless until the 30th, when 6.4" fell. The monthly total was slightly more than 1" above average.

The bulk of the winter's snow total fell in February. The 3.3" on the 2nd-3rd was quickly followed by 17.8" on the 5th-6th. This storm was the 4th largest of all time in Washington and the 2nd biggest at the current National Airport location.

Another 10.8" was reported in the blizzard of Feb. 9-10. The additional snow from this storm set the all-time seasonal snowfall record at all 3 major Washington area reporting locations (Washington National, Dulles, and Baltimore BWI). After peaking at 21" on the 11th, the snow coverage was slow to melt, reaching a trace on the 23rd. The 22 days with measurable snow on the ground set a new modern record for February. Following the epic amounts of the first 10 days of the month, only 0.1" of snow fell on each of the 15th and 27th.

Although March snowfall in Washington is rare, it's far from unprecedented (see "Not the March of the Penguins"). In fact, 7 out of the other 10 biggest snow seasons in Washington had significant measurable snow in March (an 8th one, 2002-03, had 0.1"). So, despite the statistical odds against it, there is still a possibility of extending the record seasonal total.

Given the excessive snowfall this winter, it seems like a good time to revisit an analysis from 4 years ago on the relationship between snowfall and temperature. The chart to the right shows the February monthly snowfall plotted vs. the average temperature. When the data for the last 6 years through 2010 are included, the relationship actually weakens: The percentage of variance in the snowfall accounted for by temperature declines from 25.1% to 24.5%.

Notice how far off the trend line the point for 2010 is located. In fact, all 5 of the Februaries with snowfall over 20" are significantly warmer than their snow amounts would indicate. Out of the 140 years of records, February 2010 was as warm as, or warmer than, 36 of them. In other words, over 25% of previous Februaries were equal to or colder than this year's.

Images (click to enlarge):

• Washington, DC 2009-10 daily snowfall (blue bars) and snow depth on the ground (green-shaded area)
• Top seasonal snow totals by month
• February average temperature vs. total monthly snowfall, 1888-2010

CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data, background photo © Kevin Ambrose (permission to reproduce granted under Creative Commons License provided full attribution is made with linkage to this web page)

Winter 2009-2010 Temperature Review

Following a very warm November, Washington, DC temperatures remained above average into the first few days of meteorological winter 2009-10 (December-February). The peak of 13° above average was reached on December 3, when 65° was observed, the second-highest of the winter. Temperatures cooled toward the middle of the month; the coldest day was the 19th at 12° below average. The coldest minimum was 23° on the 30th. December overall was 1.6° below average, the coldest since 2005, but the average of 37.9° was well above the 31.8° in 2000.

A cold first half of January was counter-balanced by a warmer second half. Although temperatures turned cold again for the last 3 days, the month averaged 0.4° above the long-term mean. This made it the most nearly normal January in nearly a quarter of a century. The warmest day was the 25th at 22° above average. The day's high of 68° was the warmest of the winter, but 7° below the record for the date. The 3rd and the 30th were tied for coldest of the month at 14° below average. The lowest minimum was 16° on both the 3rd and 31st.

Cold temperatures persisted into February, which was the coldest month of the winter. Readings were at or below average every day through the 18th. Following a slightly warmer than normal spell ending the 24th, temperatures cooled again through the end of the month, averaging 34.2°, which was 3.9° below normal. This was the coldest February since 2007, when the average was 30.9°. The warmest days, the 19th and 24th, were each only 2° above average, and the coldest was the 7th, which was 12° below. The warmest maximum was 50° on the 21st, and the coldest minimum was 16° on the 7th.

In the longer term, given that both December and February were below average, the winter overall averaged 1.7° colder than the long-term mean. This was slightly colder than the -1.5° departure in 2004, but only half as much as the -3.5° in 2003. Including September and October, 4 out of the last 6 months since the beginning of fall have been below average.

Following last winter's minimal -0.2° departure, this was the second winter in a row to be colder than average, but only the 2nd out of the last 6. Of the 11 winters so far this century, 5 have been colder than normal, but the overall winter average from 2000-2010 is 0.7° above normal.

Images (click to enlarge): Washington, DC daily, monthly, and seasonal temperature departures from average for: December 2009, January 2010, February 2010, January 2009-February 2010, winter 2000-2010; CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data (permission to reproduce granted under Creative Commons License provided full attribution is made with linkage to this web page)

New February and All-Time Monthly Snowfall Record for New York

March 1 Update: The preliminary monthly climate report for February confirms a snowfall of 20.9" for the Feb. 25-26 storm and 36.9" for the month.

Midnight Update: The latest report from the National Weather Service shows a storm total snowfall of 20.9" for Central Park, unchanged from late this afternoon. Unofficially, this is the 4th largest snowstorm since records began at New York's Central Park in 1869, exceeding the 20.2 inches on January 7-8, 1996, and just 0.1" less than the infamous blizzard of 1888. The 3 top snowfalls are:

• 26.9 inches: February 11-12, 2006
• 26.4 inches: December 26-27, 1947
• 21.0 inches: March 12-14, 1888

6 PM Update: Another 0.1" has fallen later this afternoon, bringing the February total to 36.9".

The average temperature so far this month in Central Park is 33.1°, or 1.2° below normal. This is nearly 5° warmer than in 2007 when 3.8" or barely 10% as much snow fell. Total precipitation, however, is more than double the normal for the month.

Original post:
The National Weather Service has announced within the last few minutes that the February monthly snowfall record and all-time monthly snowfall record for Central Park, New York were both broken in the previous hour:

...RECORD FEBRUARY SNOWFALL SET AT CENTRAL PARK IS ALSO THE RECORD
MONTHLY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY...

A SNOWFALL RECORD HAS BEEN BROKEN FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. AS OF
1:00 PM...THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE MONTH IS 36.8 INCHES. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 27.9 INCHES SET IN 1934.

AN ALL TIME MONTHLY RECORD SNOWFALL OF 36.8 INCHES WAS SET AT
CENTRAL PARK NY AS OF 1:00 PM. THIS BREAKS THE ALL TIME SNOWIEST
MONTH RECORD FOR CENTRAL PARK. THE OLD RECORD WAS 30.5 INCHES SET
BACK IN MARCH 1896.

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL...AND THE MONTHLY TOTAL FOR CENTRAL PARK WILL
BE UPDATED AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. CENTRAL PARK SNOW RECORDS DATE
BACK TO 1869. 

New All-Time Monthly Snowfall Record for Pittsburgh

Feb. 27 Update: From the National Weather Service:

AS OF 3 AM TODAY...THE MONTHLY SNOWFALL TOTAL HAS REACHED 46.8   
INCHES. FEBRUARY 2010 RANKS AS THE SNOWIEST MONTH EVER. THE PREVIOUS   
RECORD FOR SNOWIEST MONTH WAS 40.2 IN JANUARY OF 1978.  
  
THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WAS 25.3 IN 2003. THE NORMAL FOR   
FEBRUARY IS 8.5 INCHES.  
  
THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON SO FAR IS 75.0 INCHES.  THIS RANKS   
AS THE 5TH SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD.   

Evening Update:
Note that the average temperature so far this month has now increased to 26.1° (3.9° below normal). This is over 5° warmer than in 2007, when just over one-third as much snow fell. The largest daily total of 11.4" fell on Feb. 5, a day which averaged above freezing and 5° above normal.

Original post:
The National Weather Service announced within the last hour that Pittsburgh has broken its record for snowiest month ever (measurements began in 1884). The 0.8" of snowfall today from the back edge of the powerful storm pounding the northeast has pushed the total for February to 40.8", just over the previous record of 40.2" in January 1978.

Several more inches of snow accumulation are forecast for tonight, Friday, and Friday night.

From the NWS:

THE TOP 5 SNOWIEST MONTHS...

40.8 FEBRUARY 2010.
40.2 JANUARY 1978.
36.3 DECEMBER 1890.
34.1 MARCH 1993.
32.3 NOVEMBER 1950.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WAS 25.3 IN 2003. THE NORMAL FOR 
FEBRUARY IS 8.5 INCHES.

THE TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE SEASON SO FAR IS 69.0 INCHES.  THIS RANKS 
AS THE 8TH SNOWIEST SEASON ON RECORD.

THE SNOWIEST SEASONS...

82.0 1950-51.
78.5 1913-14.
76.8 1993-94.
76.0 1960-61.
74.5 1995-96.
72.1 1992-93.
70.7 1969-70.
69.0 2009-10.
40.6 NORMAL.

NORMAL FOR THE REST OF FEBRUARY IS ABOUT 1 INCH, MARCH 7.9 
INCHES, AND APRIL 1.5 INCHES.    

Bob Ryan Leaves WRC Channel 4

See Mediarology for the latest developments.

Feb. 27 Update: Video of Bob Ryan's goodbye broadcast from YouTube:



Midnight Friday Update: Bob Ryan made an emotional "final weekend forecast" and farewell to his audience and colleagues Jim Vance and Doreen Gentzler around 12:20 Saturday morning at the end of the Olympics-delayed local news broadcast.

Although he made no mention of future plans, dcrtv.com reported on Thursday that Ryan's speculated move to Channel 7 (WJLA) may be delayed by a contract non-compete clause. Such restrictions can potentially run as long as 6 months.

Original post:
The dcrtv blog reports that veteran weatherman Bob Ryan will be leaving NBC affiliate WRC-TV (Channel 4) on Friday after 31 years at the station. Ryan's departure, announced as a retirement, leaves open the possibility of his joining forces with long-time weatherman Doug Hill at ABC's WJLA, Channel 7, although no deal has been announced. Ryan, the dean of Washington TV meteorologists, has always been a class act since the Climate Capitalist first viewed his weathercast on WCVB-TV shortly after Ryan began his career in Boston.

Here is Ryan's bio from the undoubtedly soon-to-be defunct web page of NBC-4:

Bob Ryan has been News4’s Chief Meteorologist since 1980 making him the longest-serving weathercaster in Washington. His weather reports air weekdays on News4 at 5, 6 and 11 and on NBCWashington.com. And, listeners to NPR affiliate WAMU-FM can hear Ryan’s forecasts afternoons during All Things Considered.

Ryan’s career began in Cambridge, Mass. where he was involved in cloud physics research with Arthur D. Little, Inc. A side job as a broadcast meteorologist turned into a fulltime job as principal meteorologist for Boston’s WCVB-TV. In 1978, Ryan became the first meteorologist to regularly appear on NBC’s Today show.

As Chief Meteorologist, Ryan has initiated and supported many unique programs at NBC4. For 25 years, his annual Almanac provided weather and environmental information while raising more than $500,000 for local children’s charities. He also created the 4WINDS (Weather Interactive Demonstration Schoolnet) Network that placed more than 400 interactive weather stations in area schools. In 2006, that system was upgraded and expanded to become Weather Plus Neighborhood Network. Hundreds of thousands of kids who grow up in the Washington area enjoy a hands-on introduction to meteorology from these systems.

Ryan was also co-investigator for a project that brought NASA and NBC4 together to lead one of the first television weather sites on the Internet, WeatherNet4. Today, NBC4’s strong web weather presence takes the shape of weatherplus.com, a website and a cable channel which provides round-the-clock forecasts and weather information.
Ryan is also actively involved professionally in his science. In 1996, he was elected president of the American Meteorological Society; he is the only broadcaster to have led this prestigious organization. Ryan has also served the AMS as Chair of the Committee of Broadcast Meteorology, Commissioner of Professional Affairs and member of the Council of the Society. He has also served on the Board of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate for the National Academy of Science two committees of the National Research Council, and the Advisory Committee of the Geoscience Directorate of the National Science Foundation. Ryan’s expertise has been called upon repeatedly to testify before various committees of Congress

During his career, Ryan has received numerous awards, including regional Emmys for Weathercasting and the Ted Yates Emmy for outstanding service to the community. His alma mater, the University of Albany, presented him with a "Distinguished Alumni" award, and the AMS gave him The Charles Franklin Brooks Award for his outstanding service.

Despite these awards and his distinguished career, Ryan is proudest of his role as husband and father. He and his family reside in Northern Virginia.

From dcrtv's mailbag, here is a copy of the email distributed this afternoon at WRC:

Bob Ryan has been an important fixture in our newsroom for 31 years. He has covered everything from tornadoes to hurricanes and of course the occasional blizzard. Millions of area residents have come to depend on his forecast. After much discussion with him, Bob has decided it is time for a change. So Friday will be his last day at NBC4. We can't thank him enough for his dedication and passion. He will certainly be missed. Bob asked me to share the following note with you: "Even for a snow loving meteorologist this has been some winter. And for this snow loving and every other kind of weather loving meteorologist this has been some ride. It’s also been more fun than one person should have over 30 years in the same job with some of the same friends and colleagues for 20-30 years. But this winter’s snows are now pausing and so will I. Yogi Berra said, 'When you come to a fork in the road take it.' I’m going to take that great philosopher’s advice. This fork leads to more time with my wonderful wife Olga, who has had to deal with more storm related power outages and unshoveled walks alone than any spouse should ever have to put up with. I have had the wonderful fortune to work for and with many of the most dedicated people I know, who care deeply about what we do and why we do it. I may not have the opportunity after Friday to sit next to Doreen, Vance, Wendy, Jim or have the fun of interacting with my long time colleagues Tom, Veronica and Chuck and so many of you. But I will always have great affection for everyone here and you will be in my thoughts as you have been part of my professional life. If anyone asks, tell them let’s meet upstairs at Guapo’s when the snow melts, after this winter we all need a beverage and I know I still owe Collins another Jameson"