Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Lee Rainfall Breaks Every All-Time Record from 24 Hours to a Week at Jackson MS


Image (click to enlarge): Storm total rainfall in the Jackson, Mississippi region ending 7 am CDT, Sept. 6, 2011, from National Weather Service

The torrential rains from Tropical Storm Lee have broken precipitation records for every interval from 24 hours to one week at Jackson, Mississippi. Jackson climate records date back to 1896. The National Weather Service reports:
THE FOLLOWING JACKSON PRECIPITATION RECORDS WERE BROKEN DURING THIS 
RAINFALL EVENT...

*ALL TIME 24 HOUR RAINFALL RECORD (10.68" FROM 9/4 9 AM - 9/5 9 AM)
PREVIOUS RECORD: 8.50" FROM 4/6/2003 11 AM - 4/7/2003 11 AM

*ALL TIME 2-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (10.82")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 8.54" ON APRIL 11-12 1979

*ALL TIME 3-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (11.15")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 9.81" ON APRIL 11-13 1980

*ALL TIME 4-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (11.15")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 9.82" ON APRIL 11-14 1980

*ALL TIME 5-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (11.15")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 9.82" ON APRIL 11-15 1980

*ALL TIME 6-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (11.15")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 10.45" ON APRIL 8-13 1980

*ALL TIME 7-DAY RAINFALL RECORD (11.15")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 10.55" ON APRIL 7-13 1980

*SEPTEMBER 4TH DAILY RAINFALL (5.12")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 2.37" IN 1949

*SEPTEMBER 5TH DAILY RAINFALL (5.70")
PREVIOUS RECORD: 1.48" IN 1906

Arctic Sea Ice Melt Equals 2007 Record Pace

After lagging somewhat in August, the current Arctic total sea ice extent has caught up with the record low area of early September 2007. This puts it very close to the all-time record low at the 2007 seasonal minimum. The average ice extent for last month was the second lowest for August, behind only 2007. The chart (click to enlarge) from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) shows data through Sept. 5.

The NSIDC reports:
Arctic sea ice extent averaged for August 2011 reached the second lowest level for the month in the 1979 to 2011 satellite record, and has now fallen below the minimum daily extents in 2010 and 2008, previously the third- and second-lowest Arctic sea ice extents in the satellite record.

Talk to the Invisible Hand: "On Climate Change, the Market Has Spoken"

Stephen Colbert likes to say, for example, that movie X must be better than movie Y because "the market has spoken." All good satire is grounded in truth, however, and Mr. Market is speaking up on the issue of climate change. This week's issue of Businessweek (Sept. 5-11) has an editorial subtitled, "Where GOP naysayers err on climate change." In sharp contrast to the drivel that appears on the editorial pages of the Wall Street Journal, it takes a non-ideological view:
On at least one subject, the free market and its traditional political supporters have been thrust into conflict. That subject just happens to be the most important one facing the planet. A number of Republican Presidential candidates have made questioning the legitimacy of climate change a significant part of their campaign strategy. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann dispute whether global warming is man-made. Perry suggests that climate is affected by many variables, which scientists can manipulate “so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects.” Mitt Romney is on the fence. Only Jon Huntsman Jr. has declared definitively that he “trust[s] scientists on global warming.”

Politicians have been known to dissemble about risk because voters don’t generally like to hear bad news. The insurance industry makes its money telling it to you straight—how long you’ll likely live, what price your home will fetch, whether to repair or trade in your car. For this reason it’s worth noting that insurers already factor climate change into their models for measuring, pricing, and distributing risk. Insurers have no incentive to lie. If they are more scared than they should be in pricing risk, shareholders will punish them. If they aren’t scared enough, nature will do the job.
Follow the link to see the full text.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Record Rainfall From Lee Approaches Exceeds Double Digits on Gulf Coast


Image (click to enlarge): Tropical Storm Lee rainfall totals through 7 pm CDT, Sept. 3, from National Weather Service

Sept. 5, 11 pm Update: Updated storm totals of 10" or more reported by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center:
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN INCHES THROUGH 1 PM CDT 

...ALABAMA...
TILLMANS CORNER 4.3 WNW 11.74
MOBILE 10.2 WSW 11.62
GRAND BAY 0.6 NW 11.32
ORANGE BEACH 3.0 ENE 10.50
FOLEY 2.0 SSW 10.39
THEODORE 3.7 WNW 10.31

...FLORIDA...
MILTON 1.4 NNE 10.03

...LOUISIANA...
HOLDEN 15.43
N.O. CAROLLTON 14.32
MAUREPAS 13.63
PONCHATOULA 4 SE 13.22
CONVENT 2 S 13.04
RESERVE 0.5 SSE 12.43
GRAY 0.5 ENE 12.15
MARRERO 1.9 E 11.21
MONTICELLO 3.0 ENE 10.91
NEW ORLEANS/MOISANT 10.80
PONCHATOULA 11.8 E 10.59
MERAUX 0.8 WNW 10.10

...MISSISSIPPI...
FLORENCE 0.9 E 13.45
WAVELAND 1.1 NW 13.20
SAUCIER 6.4 ESE 11.75
GULFPORT 2.0 NE 11.71
LONG BEACH 0.7 S 11.59
PASS CHRISTIAN 5.0 N 11.31
RICHLAND 0.3 WSW 11.25
PHILADELPHIA 5.4 E 11.18
PEARL 3.4 ESE 11.14
JACKSON WFO 11.13
KILN 6.6 N 10.90
GULFPORT-BILOXI 10.78
Sept. 4, 11 pm Update: Updated official totals of 5" or more through 7 pm CDT:
HOLDEN              13.93   
N.O. CAROLLTON 12.97
MAUREPAS 11.97
CONVENT 2S 11.55
N.O. AUDUBON 11.42 THROUGH 7PM
GALLIANO 11.40
LIVINGSTON 11.24
N.O. ARMSTRONG 10.72 THROUGH 7PM
PASCAGOULA 10.70 THROUGH 7PM
SLIDELL CITY 10.62
COVINGTON 10.46
TERRYTOWN 3S 9.86
BILOXI 9.79 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. LAKEFRONT 9.48 THROUGH 7PM
PONCHATOULA 4SE 9.42
BAPTIST 9.31
GULFPORT AIRPORT 9.13 THROUGH 7PM
BOOTHVILLE 8.93 THROUGH 7PM
BAYOU MANCHAC PT 8.80 (I)
ROBERT 8.50
DENHAM SPRINGS 8.40
OCEAN SPRINGS 8.24
BATON ROUGE 8.17 THROUGH 7PM
ABITA RIVER 8.05
DONALDSONVILLE 4SW 7.82
B.R. SHERWOOD 7.79
MANDEVILLE 7.72
GONZALES 7.63
SLIDELL AIRPORT 7.52 THROUGH 7PM
BAYOU SORREL LOCK 7.26
BUSH 6.70
B.R. CONCORD 6.39
BOGALUSA 6.10
MCCOMB 5.87 THROUGH 7PM
KILLIAN 5.50 (I)
SUN 5.32
PLAQUEMINE 2N 5.03
Original post:
A report from the National Weather Service this evening shows rainfall amounts from Tropical Storm Lee approaching double digits along the Gulf Coast. Precipitation reports over 5" are shown below. The daily amounts of 4.95" through 5 pm today at New Orleans and 5.59" at Baton Rouge have already set new records for the date.
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GIVEN IN INCHES. TOTALS BEGIN AT 7AM THURSDAY   
MORNING AND END AT 7AM THIS MORNING UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.
INCOMPLETE DATA IS NOTATED WITH AN (I) BEHIND THE OBSERVATION.

OFFICIAL NWS OBSERVATIONS
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS/CO-OP SITES

PASCAGOULA 9.59 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. AUDUBON 9.58 THROUGH 7PM
N.O. CAROLLTON 8.82
GALLIANO 8.80
N.O. LAKEFRONT 7.87 THROUGH 7PM
SLIDELL CITY 7.77
N.O. ARMSTRONG 7.63 THROUGH 7PM
BOOTHVILLE 7.19 THROUGH 7PM
GULFPORT 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
BILOXI 6.78 THROUGH 7PM
3S TERRYTOWN 6.74
4SW DONALDSONVILLE 6.13
BATON ROUGE 5.95 THROUGH 7PM
B.R. SHERWOOD 5.85
SLIDELL AIRPORT 5.62 THROUGH 7PM
KILLIAN 5.50
GONZALES 5.47
BAYOU MANCHAC 5.30 (I)

Thursday, September 1, 2011

U.S. Heat Records Continue Crushing Cold: Incredible 22 to 1 Ratio in August

When new daily high temperature records overwhelmed low temperature records by well over 20 to 1 in the first 9 days of August, it was impressive enough, but the amazing excess has continued right through the end of the month. The over 3000 daily heat records swamped the 142 cold records by 22.2 to 1. In fact, the excess of heat records over 3000 was more than the total number of cold records!

For meteorological summer (June-August) as a whole, the ratio increased to 11.4 to 1 from 8.4 to 1 through July, and the year to date is now at 3.4 to 1, more than 50% above the average for the previous decade.

Texas accounts for 1343 of the heat records in August, but Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, and Kansas are also well represented. Despite the moderating maritime influence of the Gulf of Mexico, the 95° at Key West Naval Air Station (KNQX), Florida on the 5th, 10th, and 13th set new records for each date and also tied the all-time highest temperature. In all, Key West set or tied temperature records on 12 days out of the month.

The 47 new and 53 tied all-time high temperature records were focused mainly in the first week of the month, but Texas made a strong showing in the final few days, with Ft. Hood breaking its old record of 108° for the second time at 112° on the 27th and then tying it the next day. Houston (109°) and Austin (112°) also tied all-time records.

Preliminary data from ESRL/NOAA through August 30 show that temperatures over the entire contiguous U.S. and adjacent Canada were above or within less than 0.5°C of the 1981-2010 average with the exception of immediate coastal California and Washington.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratios of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for July 2010 through August 2011. Data from NOAA National Climatic Data Center, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
- Decadal average ratios of heat records to cold records, from University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
- Preliminary August 2011 U.S. temperature departure from 1981-2010 average from ESRL/NOAA

Exceptional Texas Drought Exceeds 80%;
Mainstream Media Chronic Climatological Challenge Continues

Although slowing from its rapid pace of early spring, the spread of Exceptional Drought, the highest of 4 categories, has continued through the end of summer in Texas. The latest Drought Monitor, released this morning and based on data through August 30, shows that over 80% of the state is now rated D4 (Exceptional):



A chart posted a couple of days ago by John Nielsen-Gammon, the Texas State Climatologist, shows how extreme this year's conditions have been relative to history going back to 1895 (h/t to MT):

The PBS News Hour last night devoted nearly 8 minutes to the subject:

Watch the full episode. See more PBS NewsHour.


Although moderator Gwen Ifill and NPR correspondent and Texas native Wade Goodwyn correctly recognized this as the "worst drought in Texas history", the word "climate" was not even uttered. (Neither was it mentioned in the 3 minutes of coverage on the flooding from Hurricane Irene.) With the governor of the state embarked on a vicious anti-science campaign, shouldn't the question at least have been asked? Apparently the reporters have bought into the inane prayer meme:
GWEN IFILL: As you talk to people, to farmers, to ranchers, to people who depend on rain, do they have any innovative or alternative ideas about how to cope with this crisis, other than to get down on their knees and pray for rain?

WADE GOODWYN: Not really.
Some of the viewers evidently did get the message, anyway:

Doug Stewart said:
I listened and watched in shock tonight and Gwen Hill and Wade Goodwyn, both whom I have long respected, discussed the drought in Texas puzzled while failing to connect the dots to make the connection between global warming and CO2 production. Wade's only solution was to pray for rain. What has happened to your courage and objectivity?
Gordon Pricd said:
Again, a story on the Texas drought - and not a mention of climate change. Given the position of Governor Perry - that climate science is essentially fraudulent - isn't a question journalistically justifiable. Indeed, demanded?

If climate change is no longer a topic that can be credibly raised in the context of some of the worst-ever droughts and floods in the nation's history - major items on the same program - then that's a story all on it's own.
rrjim said:
Most inane coverage and questioning by Gwen Ifil I could imagine. Worst draught in Texas history, Governor of Texas running for president who doesn't "believe in" global warming. But not one question about climate change and maybe the connection? Why is that?

North Pole Webcam Displays 2011 Ice Melt



From NOAA/PMEL:
Deployed on an ice floe at the North Pole in Summer 2011 as part of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.

In 2011, melt was very rapid in July, and the web cam tipped over on July 23 in the melted snow and ice.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.