Climate Catfight 2.0: Long Term Vs. Short Term

The Weekday program on KUOW radio in Seattle today had a discussion of the disagreement between many broadcast meteorologists and climatologists on the subject of global warming.

The participants:

• John Coleman is a weather forecaster in San Diego. He is one of the founders of The Weather Channel.
• Bob Henson is a science writer for the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, who trained as a meteorologist. His book "Weather on the Air" about the history of TV weather is coming out in June.
• Nate Mantua is the co–director for the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group and a professor at the School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences.

PM Update: April Temperature Drops to Third Warmest

April 21 Midnight Update: Today's temperatures:

High           57
Low            53
Average        55
Departure      -3
Month-to-date  61.3 

The high and low were within less than 2 hours of each other (9:20 and 11:06 pm, respectively). This month drops to fourth place, behind 1985.

April 20 PM Update: Today's temperatures:

High           69
Low            47
Average        58
Departure       0
Month-to-date  61.6 

Original post:
Following the coldest day of the month on Sunday the 18th and a slightly below normal Monday, Washington's average temperature for April has dropped to 61.8°. This makes April 2010 the third warmest April so far, behind 1981 and 1994. Near average temperatures forecast the rest of this week will likely further erode the month-to-date average.

Airlines Get Their Ashes Kicked Venting Volcano Costs Continue Climbing

Leading airline analyst Helane Becker estimates the airlines' total loss so far from the Iceland volcanic ash cloud is $1.5 billion, including cargo business losses:



CNBC reporter Phil LeBeau and airline analyst Robert McAddo also examine the issue:

More Turbulence in Weather Mediasphere

Ken Kaye reports in the Florida Sun-Sentinel's hurricane blog that long-time Weather Channel tropical expert Steve Lyons is leaving that position. Rick Knabb, formerly a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, will replace Lyons for the 2010 hurricane season, which begins in less than 6 weeks. Lyons will be the meteorologist in charge of the San Angelo, Texas office of the National Weather Service.

Dr. Lyons posted the following to his Facebook page:

I've really enjoyed my 12 hurricane seasons at The Weather Channel. I thank all of you for your viewing support, web interactions and for joining my facebook page. I'm returning to the National Weather Service where I will help make weather forecasts that save lives and property. I am extremely excited about my new opportunity; I’ll see you in the Lone Star State soon! Sincerely, Dr. Steve

The Weather Channel's announcement stated, in part,

Geoffrey Darby, executive vice president of programming for The Weather Channel, said, "Rick brings tremendous experience to this role and is no stranger to high profile hurricane activity, having worked with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) during the record-setting 2005 Atlantic season. He will help lead our on-air and cross-platform tropical coverage, providing continuous updates as hurricanes and tropical storms develop."

As a senior hurricane specialist at NHC from 2005-2008, he prepared and issued official forecasts and warnings during the 2005 hurricane season with Hurricanes Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma. Perhaps most notably, Dr. Knabb signed the advisory announcing that Katrina had become a major hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico. He also served as NHC's science and operations officer from 2001-2005.

Most recently, Dr. Knabb has been deputy director and director of operations of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and NWS Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii. While there, he led the development and implementation of the first-ever joint CPHC/FEMA hurricane preparedness course for emergency managers. Throughout his career in NOAA, in addition to personally preparing and issuing more than 200 official tropical cyclone operational forecast packages, Dr. Knabb has been involved in emergency management, military and academia collaboration, technology incorporation, and public speaking and media interviews.

Image: New Weather Channel tropical expert Rick Knabb, from Florida Sun-Sentinel

Temperature Update: Washington on Track for Warmest April

Following 2 days of slightly below average temperatures, yesterday was again warmer than average in Washington, DC. Halfway through the month, April temperatures are still averaging above the record monthly levels of 1981.

DC's April Heat Sets 140-Year Record

Image (click to enlarge): April 1-7, 2010 average temperature in Washington, DC vs. 10 warmest Aprils since 1871; CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data, background image © Kevin Ambrose

National Weather Service data confirm that Washington's summer-like heat in the first week of April was unprecedented in 140 years of records dating back to 1871. Steve Zubrick of the NWS office in Sterling, VA has reported to CapitalClimate that the April 1-7 average temperature not only exceeded the modern record in 1981 by over 4°, but it also surpassed by over 2° the 65.4° average in the very warm early April of 1929. (The daily record highs of 94° and 93° on the 7th and 8th in 1929 still stand. Temperatures cooled considerably later in the month, however, and 1929 ended with an average of 57.6°, which is now only the 29th warmest April.)

In the records of Dulles Airport dating back only to 1962, this year's April 1-7 average of 67.7° smashed by over 7° the previous record of 60.4° in 1988.

It was also the warmest first week of April in Baltimore.

For detailed data, see the previous posts:

• DC Demolishes 80-Plus-Year April Heat Record
• Washington Continues on Pace to Record First Week of April
• No Fooling: Early April Temperature Record Predicted, Without Extremes

PM Update: DC Demolishes 80-Plus-Year April Heat Record

April 8, Midnight update: The midnight (1 am, EDT) lows:

Washington National 56°
Washington Dulles   56°
Baltimore/BWI       55° 

April 8, AM Update: This morning's low of 69° is 9° above the record warm minimum for April 8. In the unlikely event that this reading were to hold through the approach of a strong cold front this evening, it would tie the all-time April warm minimum on April 19, 1896.

Dulles Airport has already tied 1 and set 2 record warm minimums in the last 3 days:

April 5 51 (tie)
April 6 61 
April 7 65 

This morning's low of 67° is 14° above the current record of 53° set in 1983 and is 1° above the all-time April record warm minimum of 66° in 1977.

5 PM Update: Today's high of 90° brings the average for the first week of April up to 67.6°, over 4° above the old record. Other highs, including a new record by 7° at Dulles:

Washington Dulles   91° 
Baltimore/BWI       90° 

2 PM Update: As of 2:00, the highs are (new record at Dulles):

Washington National 88°
Washington Dulles   89° 
Baltimore/BWI       88° 

Original post:
Following a low of 63°, the Washington, DC noon temperature is now up to 79°. This clinches a record high average temperature for the first week of April since at least 1930, when records began at or near the current location of National Airport. With an expected high in the upper 80s, the average for April 1-7 will be close to a remarkable 4° above the previous record in 1981.

For previous history, see the earlier post below.