Seasonal Update: Winter 2008-2009 Weather Forecast

The Winter 2009-2010 outlook is here.
Other seasonal forecasts, including the current winter energy forecast, are also available.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center announced today the official outlook for meteorological winter (December-January-February). With the expected absence of any strong El Niño/La Niña effects from Pacific Ocean temperatures, conditions are likely to be variable. Temperatures, however, are forecast to be near or above normal everywhere in the continental U.S. Precipitation is forecast to be higher than normal in parts of the central Plains, and drier conditions are likely in the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and portions of the Southwest.

Near equal chances of cooler or warmer than normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic areas. Near equal chances of wetter or drier than normal precipitation amounts are also predicted, although central and southern Virginia and the Maryland and Virginia Eastern Shore are expected to be drier than normal.

In contrast to many media outlets and web sites which hype their winter snow outlooks to increase their broadcast ratings or page views, NOAA recognizes that there is absolutely no scientific basis for such predictions:

"Snow forecasts are heavily dependent upon winter storms and are generally not predictable more than several days in advance."

One broadcaster's view of the winter outlook for the Washington, DC region:

Capitol Climate Change: LA Waxes Detroit Ding Dong, Dingell's Gone

In another sign that change is coming to Washington, Rep. Henry Waxman of California today replaced the venerable Rep. John Dingell of Michigan as chairman of the powerful House Energy and Commerce and Committee. Dingell, age 82, has held the chairmanship whenever Democrats have controlled the House since 1981. As a representative from Michigan, Dingell has consistently supported the interests of the auto industry on energy and environmental issues. Waxman, on the other hand, has been an advocate for stronger action on clean energy and climate legislation.

Following the Democratic Caucus vote which elected him Chairman, Rep. Waxman issued the following statement:

I am honored by the vote of the Democratic Caucus. We are at a unique moment and have an opportunity that comes only once in a generation. I will work with all parts of our Caucus and across the aisle to deliver the change that the American public expects us to deliver.

I have worked with Chairman John Dingell for 34 years. He has been a true legislative champion. I will always admire and respect him and his many legislative accomplishments.

From around the Internets:

• Politico: Waxman dethrones Dingell as chairman
  
• NYti: Longtime Head of House Energy Panel Is Ousted
  
• Baltimore Sun, Waxman to chair House energy, commerce panel
  
• MSNBC, OUT WITH THE OLD?
  
• AP, Waxman topples Dingell; House Dems go greener
  
• Bloomberg, Waxman Defeats Dingell for Control of Energy Panel
  
• Globe and Mail, It's the little things
  
• Seattle PI, New environmental cast in D.C. signaled by election today of Waxman, Stevens' defeat
  
• WSJ Environmental Capital, Waxing Nostalgic: Does Waxman Victory Mean Slam Dunk for Climate Bill?
  
• Nature.com blog, In a year of change, Democrats take down one of their own

Political Climate: Inauguration Weather

Today's WaPo includes a graphic representation of presidential inauguration weather (click to enlarge):


Weather doesn't follow a 4-year cycle, so here are CapitalClimate charts of the detailed January 20 Washington, DC, temperature and precipitation records since 1933:





Note the large temperature range, from a high of 70° in 1951 (not an inauguration year) to a low of -2° for Reagan's second inaugural in 1985, the coldest inauguration in history. The long-term averages of 42° for a maximum and 27° for a minimum are equal to the coldest of the year in Washington.

The record precipitation for the date of 1.77" fell in 1937. An inch or more also occurred in 1979 and 1988, with 1995 close behind at 0.99". In all, 39 out of the last 78 years since 1930, or exactly 50%, have had at least a trace of precipitation on January 20.

The maximum snowfall on the date was 3.8" in 1975, although 7" fell the day before Kennedy's inauguration in 1961. At least a trace of snow fell in 23 years, or just under 30% of the time. Of those, 17 had measurable amounts, and 1" or more was observed 9 times. The maximum amount of snow on the ground was the 8" in 1961. There has been a trace or more of snow on the ground in 25 of the years since 1930, and 19 of those had at least an inch.

So, the bottom line of inauguration weather history is: If you're planning to attend the events, particularly those outdoors, be prepared with a variety of clothing and footwear.

Other references on inauguration weather history:

• National Weather Service, Presidential Inaugural Weather
• Maryland Weather, Inaugural weather can be d'icey

A Breath of Fresh Air

ClimateScienceWatch notes that President-Elect Obama has stated in writing, "In an Obama Administration, the principle of scientific integrity will be absolute. I will never sanction any attempt to subvert the work of scientists."

Meanwhile, Sunday's WaPo reports, Obama Positioned to Quickly Reverse Bush Actions:

Transition advisers to President-elect Barack Obama have compiled a list of about 200 Bush administration actions and executive orders that could be swiftly undone to reverse White House policies on climate change, stem cell research, reproductive rights and other issues . . .

One potential target for reversal mentioned in the article is the Bush Administration's refusal to grant California a waiver to allow regulation of greenhouse gases from automobiles.

The N.Y. Times has a similar report, Obama Weighs Quick Undoing of Bush Policy.

Today's Forecast: "Hot, Flat, and Crowded"

Author Thomas Friedman's recent lecture presented by Politics and Prose in Washington, DC, is available as a streaming webcast. Copies of the PowerPoint slides are included.

Paloma Stalls Over Cuba, Weakening to Tropical Depression

After making landfall on the southern coast of Cuba Saturday evening, Hurricane Paloma weakened rapidly, becoming a tropical storm by 7 am today. Late this afternoon, the storm was downgraded to a tropical depression. As of 4 pm, maximum winds are down to 35 mph, and further weakening is expected through tonight.

Tropical Depression Paloma is barely moving toward the north at 1 mph, and a slow northward drift will keep the storm or its remnants near the north coast of Cuba on Monday. Additional rains of 1 to 2 inches are forecast over central and eastern Cuba and the Bahamas.

Category 4 Hurricane Paloma Ties, Sets November RecordsExtremely Dangerous Storm Approaching Cuba

7 pm Update: Major Hurricane Paloma made landfall near Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba, around 6:20 pm as a strong Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 125 mph. Winds have now decreased to 120 mph, and further weakening is expected over the next couple of days.

4 pm Update: As of 4 pm, maximum winds have increased to 145 mph, making Paloma the second strongest Atlantic hurricane in November. Little decrease in strength is expected before landfall.

Original post:

Major Hurricane Paloma has intensified to Category 4, with maximum winds of 140 mph. Paloma is now tied for the second strongest November hurricane in the Atlantic basin. The strongest was Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which reached maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Hurricane Michelle, which followed a very similar track in 2001, also had peak winds of 140 mph in November, although that storm formed in the last few days of October. Also tied for second place is Hurricane Greta of 1956.

Jeff Masters notes in his blog that this is the first time in history that major hurricanes have occurred in 5 separate months of the same season: Bertha (July), Gustav (August), Ike (September), Omar (October), Paloma (November). The only other season with as many as 4 was the notorious 2005 of Katrina and friends.

Some weakening is likely in the short term, but Paloma is expected to make landfall on the southern coast of central Cuba as a major hurricane. Hurricane Warnings continue in effect for the southern and northern coasts of central Cuba. After making landfall tonight and crossing Cuba, the storm is forecast to weaken and stall south of the Bahamas.

At 1 pm, Paloma was centered about 65 miles southwest of Santa Cruz del Sur, Cuba, moving east northeast at 9 mph. This track is expected to continue through Sunday with some decrease in forward speed after landfall.

Images: Radar from Instituto de Meteorologia de Cuba, Infrared satellite view from NOAA, Paloma forecast track from National Hurricane Center, Lenny and Michelle tracks from NOAA Coastal Services Center