Hanna Brings Flooding Rains

The following rainfall totals from Tropical Storm Hanna were reported for the 3 hours ending at 5 pm:

Washington National 0.49"
Dulles 1.20"
Baltimore-Washington International 0.11"

Reports for the 6 hours ending at 2 pm were:

Washington National 2.98"
Dulles 3.85"
Baltimore-Washington International 1.50"
Richmond 1.54"

Here are some preliminary storm total rainfall amounts, reported by the National Weather Service:

MARYLAND

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
BALTO/WASH INTL 1.61 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
JACKSONVILLE 2.83 300 PM 9/6 COCORAHS OBSERVATION
TOWSON 2.00 152 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
NANJEMOY 5.00 157 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
NEW MARKET 3.21 300 PM 9/6

...HARFORD COUNTY...
FALLSTON 2.71 154 PM 9/6 SPOTTER
BEL AIR 2.00 217 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
ROCKVILLE 3.63 215 PM 9/6 COCRAHS OBSERVATION

...PRINCE GEORGE`S COUNTY...
OXON HILL 2.56 230 PM 9/6

...ST. MARY`S COUNTY...
PARK HALL ESTATES 1.77 145 PM 9/6 COCRAHS OBSERVATION

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
SMITHSBURG 1.36 145 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

VIRGINIA

...ALBEMARLE COUNTY...
CHARLOTTESVILLE 2.24 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...ARLINGTON COUNTY...
REAGAN NATIONAL 3.62 300 PM 9/6 DCA AIRPORT

...CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...
ALEXANDRIA 6.35 253 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...FAIRFAX COUNTY...
OAKTON 7.83 303 PM 9/6 MESONET
ANNANDALE 7.04 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
FAIRFAX 5.90 225 PM 9/6 SKYWARN
ANNANDALE 5.89 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
RAVENSWORTH 5.50 300 PM 9/6 MESONET
WASH DC/DULLES 4.66 300 PM 9/6 AIRPORT

...FAUQUIER COUNTY...
MIDLAND 3.75 215 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...KING GEORGE COUNTY...
KING GEORGE 4.37 245 PM 9/6

...LOUDOUN COUNTY...
STERLING 5.50 155 PM 9/6 NWS STERLING
LUCKETTS 4.00 230 PM 9/6
LOVETTSVILLE 2.19 200 PM 9/6 SKYWARN

...MADISON COUNTY...
SHELBY 2.08 145 PM 9/6 IFLOWS GAGE

...PAGE COUNTY...
BIG MEADOWS WAYSIDE 2.32 145 PM 9/6 IFLOWS GAGE

...PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY...
WOODBRIDGE 8.34 300 PM 9/6 COCORAHS OBSERVATION
HAYMARKET 3.05 230 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

NORTH CAROLINA

...ALAMANCE COUNTY...
BURLINGTON 2.95 145 PM 9/6 BUY ASOS

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
FAYETTEVILLE 4.62 145 PM 9/6 FAY ASOS
SPRING LAKE 2.65 200 AM 9/6 FORT BRAGG

...FORSYTH COUNTY...
WINSTON SALEM 0.83 145 PM 9/6 INT ASOS

...GUILFORD COUNTY...
GREENSBORO 1.32 145 PM 9/6 GSO ASOS

...HALIFAX COUNTY...
ROANOKE RAPIDS 1.87 145 PM 9/6 RZZ ASOS

...JOHNSTON COUNTY...
EMIT 5.42 1230 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...MOORE COUNTY...
SOUTHERN PINES 6.68 100 PM 9/6 SPOTTER

...NASH COUNTY...
ROCKY MOUNT 2.57 145 PM 9/6 RWI ASOS

...ORANGE COUNTY...
CHAPEL HILL 4.96 145 PM 9/6 IGX ASOS

...SCOTLAND COUNTY...
LAURINBURG 5.74 145 PM 9/6 MEB ASOS

...WAKE COUNTY...
RALEIGH 5.19 145 PM 9/6 RDU ASOS
RALEIGH 4.77 200 PM 9/6 NWS OFFICE

...WAYNE COUNTY...
GOLDSBORO 2.19 200 AM 9/6

Hanna Moving Up East Coast Ike Threatens Bahamas, Cuba, Florida

5 pm Update: At 5 pm, Tropical Storm Hanna was centered near Cambridge, Maryland on the Delmarva peninsula. Hanna continues to race off to the northeast at 28 mph. Rain has mostly ended in the Washington, DC metro area, but heavy rain continues from extreme northeastern Maryland through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York and into New England.

Reconnaissance has shown that Hurricane Ike is back to extremely dangerous Category 4 with maximum winds of 135 mph. Ike is continuing to move toward the west southwest at 15 mph. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for portions of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos, and eastern Cuba. Although Ike could still threaten southern Florida, it's looking increasingly likely that the storm will move on past Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

2 pm Update: The center of Tropical Storm Hanna has now moved to near Williamsburg, Virginia, approaching the lower Chesapeake Bay. Maximum winds are still 50 mph, and the storm is moving northeast at 25 mph. Little change in strength is expected today, but Hanna will be losing tropical characteristics by Sunday.

Based on aircraft reconnaissance reports, Hurricane Ike has regained Category 3 strength with winds of 115 mph. Ike continues on a west southwest track at 15 mph, heading toward the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. Ike is a fairly compact storm, with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 45 miles and tropical storm force winds up to 125 miles.

Original post:
After making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border around 3:20 am, Tropical Storm Hanna is rapidly moving up the U.S. East Coast. At 11 am, the center of Hanna was near Emporia in southern Virginia. The storm is moving north northeast at an accelerating rate of 24 mph. This track will take the storm to the vicinity of southern New England by tonight and the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday night.

Maximum winds are down to 50 mph, but tropical storm winds extend as far as 200 miles from the center, with the strongest winds in the eastern portion of the storm. A Tropical Storm Warning extends along the Mid Atlantic coast to southern New England. Warnings and watches, including Flash Flood Warnings, have been issued for the local areas affected.

Hurricane Ike has been lowered to a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 110 mph as it continues moving west southwest toward the Bahamas, with a turn more toward the west expected on Sunday. Ike is then expected to pass near or over the northern coast of Cuba, eventually reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Although fluctuations in strength are likely, Ike is expected to regain major hurricane status in the next couple of days.

Tropical Storm Josephine was downgraded to a depression Friday night, and the last advisory was issued for the storm early Saturday. Maximum winds are down to 30 mph, and further slow weakening of the remnants is expected over the next two days.

Images (top to bottom): Tropical Storm Hanna radar and satellite views from The Weather Channel, Hanna and Hurricane Ike track forecasts from National Hurricane Center.

PM Update: Hanna Near Hurricane Strength;Fifth Consecutive U.S. Landfall to Tie a Record

11 pm Update:Tropical Storm Hanna is moving rapidly toward landfall on the coast of the Carolinas. The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Watch Hill, Rhode Island, including New York Harbor and Long Island Sound. Maximum winds are still 70 mph. The center is moving north at 20 mph from a position about 140 miles south southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina.

5 pm Update: Tropical Storm Hanna's circulation has become more symmetric during the day, and the latest aircraft reconnaissance confirms that it is just below hurricane strength. The storm's effects are now reaching the coast of the Carolinas as it moves northward at 20 mph. The center was located about 240 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina at 5 pm.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward to Merrimack River, Massachusetts, and various other watches and warnings remain in effect from the Southeast through the Mid Atlantic. See the link in the original post below for local watches and warnings.

Despite all the focus on Hanna, Hurricane Ike remains a dangerous Category 3 storm. The first reconnaissance of Ike this afternoon has put the maximum winds a little lower, at 115 mph, but restrengthening is likely in the next couple of days. Ike continues on a generally westerly course. There is a large uncertainty in the eventual track, but it's looking increasingly likely that Ike could move on into the Gulf of Mexico after threatening either southern Florida or Cuba.

Josephine continues to weaken; it's down to 40 mph.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna has continued to become better organized today, and aircraft reconnaissance has found maximum winds of 70 mph as of 2 pm. On the other hand, the center has been located farther east than earlier reported. The storm is now moving north at 20 mph from a position 310 miles south of Wilmington, North Carolina.

Various watches and warnings are in effect for large portions of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts, including the Chesapeake Bay. Local watches and warnings have been issued by National Weather Service offices in the affected areas.

Jeff Masters points out in his blog that Hanna will be the fifth consecutive named storm to hit the U.S. this season. That ties a record which has been matched 5 times in the past, most recently in 2004:

2004 (Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne)
2002 (Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Isidore)
1985 (Gloria, Henri, Isabel, Juan, and Kate)
1979 (Bob, Claudette, David, Elena, and Frederic)
1971 (Doria, Edith, Fern, Ginger, Heidi)

If Ike makes a landfall in the U.S. as well, it would set a new record.

Scroll down to the previous post for details on major Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Josephine.

Images (top to bottom): Tropical Storm Hanna satellite image from The Weather Channel; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Hanna Accelerates Toward U.S. CoastWarning Area Extended Northward

Watches and Warnings from Southeast to Mid Atlantic

11 am Update: The Tropical Storm Warning for Hanna has been extended northward and is now in effect from Altahama Sound, Georgia all the way to Sandy Hook, New Jersey, including all of Chesapeake Bay, the tidal Potomac, Washington, DC, and Delaware Bay. Local watches and warnings have been issued by National Weather Service offices in the affected areas.

Although Hanna is looking better organized, maximum winds remain at 65 mph. Movement is toward the north at 20 mph from a position 375 miles south southwest of Wilmington, North Carolina.

Meanwhile, Ike and Josephine have both weakened slightly. Ike's forecast path has been shifted a little to the south, which could bring it around the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna is accelerating toward the Southeast U.S. coast this morning. Maximum winds remain at 65 mph. The center of Hanna's broad circulation was about 425 miles south of Wilmington, NC at 8 am, headed northwest at 18 mph. The track is expected to turn more toward the north today, along with an increase in forward motion.

Tropical storm watches and warnings and a hurricane watch are in effect for a large portion of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts from Georgia to New Jersey. Although Hanna could become a minimal hurricane before landfall, that is increasingly unlikely.

In the Mid Atlantic region, Maryland, DC, and Virginia governments responded to flash flood and tropical storm watches with emergency preparations for the expected heavy rain and wind. This provoked the usual asinine commentary from the anonymously ethereal rabble.

Hurricane Ike continues to be a major storm, although it has dropped a notch overnight to Category 3. Maximum winds are 125 mph. Although some weakening is forecast in the short term, Ike should still be a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and then possibly southern Florida, Haiti, or Cuba.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak, but maximum winds are up a little to 50 mph.

Images (top to bottom): Hanna satellite view from The Weather Channel; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

PM Update: Tropical Storm Hanna Watches and Warnings Extended

11 pm Update: Tropical Storm Hanna continues to move northwest toward the Southeast U.S. coast. At 11 pm, it was moving at 14 mph from a position 540 miles south of Wilmington, NC. Maximum winds are still 65 mph, although satellite images show that Hanna is a little better organized than earlier in the day. Another reconnaissance flight will check out the area in a few hours.

Hurricane Ike is still a major Category 4 storm with maximum winds of 135 mph. It's moving on a due west course at a speed of 14 mph with a turn more toward west southwest expected on Friday. The forecast track continues to take the storm through the Bahamas with a possible landfall in southern Florida by early next week.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak; maximum winds are 45 mph.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Hanna has been attempting to organize its circulation pattern today while maximum winds remain at the strong tropical storm level, 65 mph. Although Hanna could potentially reach hurricane force before landfall, that is unlikely.

A Hurricane Watch has been extended for portions of the Carolinas, however, in recognition that there is very little difference between a strong tropical storm and a minimal hurricane. Tropical storm warnings and watches have also been extended from as far south as the Georgia coast to New Jersey, including the Chesapeake Bay, tidal Potomac, and Washington, DC.

Hurricane Ike is still a Category 4 storm, but maximum winds are now a little lower at 135 mph. Ike is expected to fluctuate in intensity, but it should still be a very strong hurricane when it arrives in the vicinity of the Bahamas late in the weekend. After that, Ike could do anything from remaining out to sea to hitting Florida or Cuba, or even moving on into the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Josephine remains weak with winds of only 45 mph.

Images (top to bottom): 24-hour precipitation forecast ending 8 pm Saturday from National Weather Service; Hanna, Ike, and Josephine forecast tracks from National Hurricane Center

Tropical Trio: Southeast Watches Haggard Hanna Powerful Ike Stronger, Josephine Weakens

This morning's tropical trio review finds a weakened Tropical Storm Hanna still capable of threatening the Southeast Coast, an even stronger Hurricane Ike, and a weaker Josephine.

Tropical Storm Hanna's satellite appearance this morning is looking extremely disheveled. Very dry air to the north has choked off the convection at the core of the storm. Conditions are expected to be unfavorable for development through today, but strengthening to hurricane force is still possible as the storm moves northwestward at a faster rate toward the Southeast U.S. coast. Tropical storm and hurricane watches are in effect for portions of the Georgia coast through the Carolinas.

Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Ike strengthened even more overnight to as high as 145 mph, but it's down slightly in the latest advisory to 140 mph. It is expected to remain strong as it continues in a westerly direction generally toward the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Josephine continues to weaken a little more as it moves west northwest. Some fluctuation in strength is possible, but the storm is expected to remain weak.

Hurricane Forecasting Science

Christopher Landsea of the National Hurricane Center was interviewed last night on NPR's All Things Considered on the subject of hurricane track and intensity forecasting.

Hurricane Ike Goes Major, Now Extremely Dangerous Category 4

While Hanna has been getting its act together near the Bahamas, Hurricane Ike further out in the Atlantic has been rapidly intensifying. As of 8 pm, Ike was a major Category 3 storm with maximum winds of 115 mph. By 11 pm, it was a Category 4 at 135 mph. Ike has gone from tropical storm to Category 4 in 12 hours. This is now the third major hurricane of the season. Ike's generally westward track should bring it near the Bahamas this weekend.

Tropical Storm Hanna's maximum winds are 65 mph as of 11 pm. It is expected to regain hurricane strength in the next couple of days as it approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. Various hurricane and tropical storm warnings are in effect for the Bahamas. After hammering Haiti with more flooding rains, Hanna has caused power outages in the Bahamas.

Josephine has weakened again, and it is expected to continue doing so. Its maximum winds are now down to 50 mph.

Images (top to bottom): Hurricane Ike satellite view from The Weather Channel, tracks of Ike, Hanna, and Josephine from National Hurricane Center