21 Days and CountingRainless streak expected to extend into next week

Now

Partly sunny, warm, humid. Today is the 21st consecutive rainless day since a mere 0.15" fell in the official precipitation bucket at National Airport on Sept. 14. It's not as bad as what The Weather Channel has taken to calling the "desert southeast", but the latest drought monitor map shows the Severe Drought category (dark brown) extending northward from Virginia across DC and most of Maryland, while the Extreme Drought area is pushing into southern Virginia toward the Richmond area. Fairfax City (not County) is now the latest local jurisdiction to impose water restrictions.

Temperature-wise, the retreat westward of the center of high pressure to the north of the area has shifted the wind more to the east. This has kept enough clouds around to prevent temperatures from reaching the more optimistic forecast levels. Although Dulles, Leesburg, and BWI had all reached or exceeded 80° by mid afternoon, many other locations were still in the upper 70s. National was at 80° by 4pm with scattered clouds at around 3200 ft. Dewpoints are actually a couple of degrees lower than yesterday, but still in the noticeably humid range.

U.S. Drought Monitor map released yesterday by NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid. Tonight will be continued warm and humid with some low clouds and patchy fog by morning; lows will be from the upper 60s downtown to the low 60s in the 'burbs. Morning clouds tomorrow will give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon with highs 82-86°

For the outlook through the rest of the Columbus Day weekend, scroll on down to Camden's post below.

Energy Watch

The latest post at The Weather Channel's Forecast Earth blog, "$1.8 BILLION FOR MARYLAND POWER LINES?", is an interesting analysis of the tradeoffs between investment in long-distance power transmission and smart grid technologies. The post is by Jigar Shah, Chief Strategy Officer of SunEdison, which is based in Beltsville. The company is "North America's largest solar energy service provider." The transmission line in question is intended to bring more coal-generated power from the Midwest into the state. According to their latest report, Pepco currently derives 54% of power from coal and only 3.8% from renewable sources, of which 0% is solar.

Mediarology

This week's Forecast Earth broadcast (5pm Saturday and Sunday) is focused on nuclear energy.

CNN's Rob Marciano is the latest broadcast meteorologist to jump into the political crossfire over global warming.

DC: Desiccated Community

Now

Mostly sunny, warm, humid. Increased humidity and nearly calm winds produced some dense fog overnight in the Washington metro area. Visibilities plunged as low as half a mile at National, a quarter of a mile at Dulles, and an eighth of a mile in heavy drizzle at BWI.

The return of the sun, however, has pushed temperatures mainly to the mid and upper 80s by mid afternoon, although the river-cooled south wind is keeping National several degrees lower. Dulles at least tied the record for the date with 87° at 4pm and again the following hour. Traditional hotspot Culpeper reached 91° by 2pm. The dewpoint reached 70° by noon at National and has remained within 1° of there all afternoon.

Once again, no significant rain is in sight, and a regional government committee has issued a drought watch. On Tuesday, Loudoun County imposed mandatory water restrictions.

CapitalWeather.com chart of visibility (blue) and relative humidity (green) noon yesterday through early afternoon today from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid. Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight; AC usage at the typical start of the heating season seems like sacrilege, but the hum of the compressor will likely be heard in many neighborhoods. Lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70° in the city and in the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Some locally dense fog is again likely after midnight. Any morning fog or clouds will give way to a mostly sunny afternoon tomorrow with highs 83-87°. (Tomorrow's record high of 90° at Dulles is also the all-time October high.)

For the outlook through the Columbus Day weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

The tropical Atlantic is still relatively quiet; the reconnaissance flight scheduled for the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon was canceled.

Mediarology: Hype Alert

The Weather Channel's Stu Ostro tries to apply some scientific sense to the media's Niño/Niña obsession in a blog post today, "Oh No! La Nina is Coming!"

Same ol' Sol

Now

Mostly sunny, warm, humid. Probably one reason October is Matt's favorite month is that it has, on average, by far the highest number of clear days (10.7, over 10% higher than its nearest rival, September, although the month just ended had 15 clear days).

That's not the case today as persistent clouds overnight and even some morning drizzle have kept the low so far today to the balmy midnight reading of 68°. On the other hand, a more southerly than easterly wind has allowed an abundance of sunshine to push temperatures into the low and even mid 80s in some places this afternoon. Humidity has also increased; dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s are nearly 10° higher than yesterday.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, humid. Some low clouds and patchy fog are likely to form again tonight; lows will be in the mid 60s downtown to the upper 50s in the 'burbs. Any morning clouds should burn off in time to produce a mainly sunny day tomorrow with highs 83-87°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the Columbus Day weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

There are no active storms in the tropical Atlantic or eastern Pacific, but the National Hurricane Center is still keeping an eye on a low pressure area in the eastern Gulf. The reconnaissance flight scheduled for today was called off, but this system still has some potential for development. Meanwhile, another area a little east of the Bahamas is encountering more favorable upper level winds and could become a tropical depression in the next couple of days.

The Gray team at Colorado State have revised their hurricane season forecast (again).

Book Sale

Get 'em while they're hot: As a public service, we waive the usual Amazon referral fee to note that the Oxford University Press has several weather-related books in its Fall Sale:

• Oxford Dictionary of Weather
• Understanding Weather: A Visual Approach
• Hurricanes of the North Atlantic

None of these titles come with any recommendation from the management, staff, or advertisers of CapitalWeather.com, but this is a very well respected publisher, especially in the area of reference books.

DC: Drought Continues

Now

Mostly sunny, warm. With Thursday's rain focused mainly to the north and west of the Beltway (only a trace at National), the month just ended finished out in the top 5 of driest Septembers in Washington. As Dan details below, this first week of October is getting off to a dry start as well.

As high pressure centered over extreme eastern Canada slides slowly off the coast, a more easterly wind has brought in a little more humidity, a few more clouds, and very slightly cooler temperatures this afternoon in the metro area. By mid afternoon, temperatures at local reporting stations were generally in the mid 70s and dewpoints were in the comfortable mid 50s.

24-hour precipitation ending Friday morning from NWS Precipitation Analysis shows amounts up to 0.5" (dark blue) across much of Montgomery and Fairfax Counties with a few higher amounts, but much less across DC and to the south and east.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm, becoming a little more humid. Under scattered to broken clouds, lows tonight will range from the upper 50s in the city to the low and mid 50s in the 'burbs. There is a chance of some fog in low lying areas. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with highs 76-80° and a little more humidity.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the Columbus Day weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

Melissa developed near the Cape Verde Islands on Friday, briefly became a tropical storm over the weekend and quickly dissipated. Neither the remnants of Karen nor Melissa are expected to redevelop.

The only other significant area of interest in the Atlantic is over the Bahamas, Florida, and the adjacent Atlantic. Some slow subtropical development is considered possible for this system in the next couple of days.

Making Lemonade Out of Lemons

For an idea about what to do with all this excess sunshine (although the temperatures are a bit warm), check out the article about the rechargeable jacket in the Sept. 24 New Yorker (article not available online). The Solar JKT from fashion designer Zegna of Italy comes with solar panels on the collar for recharging an iPod (spellcheck suggests "Izod", probably not compatible with Zegna) or cell phone.

Washington Wonders: Will We or Won't We? Showers possible, then continued dry

Now

Sunny, warm, humid. With only 3 days so far this month with measurable rain (average for September is 7.2) and none in the past 12 days, the Washington metro area is wondering if we'll get anything significant out of a frontal system that's barely moving out of the Ohio Valley. (In the 18 hours ending early this afternoon, it moved only across the state of Ohio.) By mid afternoon, a line of thunderstorms had fired up across far western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Allegany County until 4:45. East of the mountains, however, activity has been minimal at best in the dry tongue extending across the central Mid Atlantic region.

Temperatures this afternoon are running a couple of degrees less warm at regional observing stations with fewer 90s than in the last couple of days, but humidity is still noticeable with dewpoints mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

Infrared satellite image at 3:30 this afternoon from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm and humid, chance of showers. Warm and humid conditions will continue with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms through this evening and overnight lows from the upper 60s downtown to the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy in the morning and a little cooler, with decreasing clouds and lower humidity in the afternoon. Highs will be 78-83°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Storm Karen is a little weaker today with maximum winds of 60 miles per hour as of 5pm, and further slow weakening is likely as it continues on a west-northwesterly track which should keep it from threatening land.

TD 13 was promoted to Tropical Storm Lorenzo early this afternoon in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Its maximum winds are now around 70 mph, and it is expected to hit the Mexican coast as a hurricane.

Capitol Climate

Today's WaPo has several items of interest in the climate policy area:

• "Kaine, O'Malley Urge U.S. Action on Global Warming": Both local governors testified yesterday at a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the effects of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. The Dog Bites Man Award goes to this article for the statement, "One contrary note in the hearing came from Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okla.), who has said he thinks climate change is a hoax."
• "The Climate Change Peril That Insurers See": An op-ed piece co-authored by state insurance officials from Montana and Florida discusses the economic implications of global warming on the insurance industry in widely differing venues.
• "White House Taking Unearned Credit for Emissions Cuts": The administration is playing games with data and semantics on the subject of mandatory vs. voluntary emission controls.

Warm Washington Wednesday Cooler weekend ahead

Now

Sunny, warm, humid. It's another warm and somewhat humid afternoon in the Washington metro area. By mid afternoon, several regional locations had reported temperatures of 90° or more, although National had reached only 88°. Dewpoints are generally in the mid and upper 60s.

The month overall is now 1.6° above the long-term average, but the mean of 73°, which will undoubtedly be reduced by the weekend, is well below the 75° achieved just 2 years ago and significantly below the all-time warmest September of 77.1° in 1980 (pdf file).

A slowly approaching cold front provides this week's only (slim) hope for rainfall late tomorrow or early Friday.

CapitalWeather.com chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm and humid, chance of showers. There is a slight chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms through this evening, especially over and to the west of the Blue Ridge. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to near 70° in the city to the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will feature variable cloudiness and highs in the mid to upper 80s with a 40% chance of showers or thunderstorms by evening.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

Despite yesterday's indications of limited strengthening, Tropical Storm Karen was approaching hurricane strength in the eastern Atlantic this morning with peak winds of 70 mph. The predicted northwesterly track, however, continues to keep it away from land areas.

Tropical Depression 13 is near tropical storm strength and meandering slowly in the southern Gulf, expected to eventually make landfall in eastern Mexico. As of the 5pm advisory, it had still not strengthened and was nearly stationary.

There are several other areas of interest. A new low pressure area near Key West is being watched for possible development as it moves northeastward toward the Atlantic coast of Florida. A couple of tropical waves in the far eastern Atlantic also have the potential for development in the next couple of days.

Capitol Climate: National Security

The House Committee on Science and Technology's Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight is holding a hearing tomorrow on "The National Security Implications of Climate Change". A former Army Chief of Staff and a former Director of Central Intelligence are scheduled to testify. The CNA Corporation (operator of the Center for Naval Analyses) recently issued a report on the subject based on the input of a blue-ribbon panel consisting of eleven retired 3+ star admirals and generals.

The subject is also the theme of an upcoming episode of The Weather Channel's Forecast Earth, previously postponed due to storm coverage.

September's Still Sultry

Now

Sunny, warm, more humidity. The calendar says fall, but it's still summery in the Washington metro area. By mid afternoon, at least half a dozen official reporting stations in the region had reached the 90° level, including Dulles at 91° (only 1° short of the record). Traditional hot spot Culpeper reached 95°. At 4pm, temperatures of 80°+ blanketed the entire East Coast and even extended into southern Canada. Humidity has also noticeably increased, although the dewpoints in the low 60s or less are not oppressive.

Temperature chart at 4pm today from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Mostly clear, very warm. Tonight will be mostly clear with lows only down to the upper 60s in the city and the low 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be sunny, a little warmer and more humid with highs 88-91°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week and into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The PaBePo's Storm King has suggested that if Jerry was a storm "about nothing", then it should be followed by . . . Kramer! The National Hurricane Center has stuck to the script, however, and named the next storm Karen. As of the 5pm advisory, the new tropical storm had maximum winds holding steady at 40 mph. Although some intensification is expected, it is not likely to reach hurricane strength. The storm is quite far south in the eastern Atlantic, but its expected more northerly track could keep it away from all land areas.

An Air Force flight this afternoon was investigating the area of showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite images this morning indicated that this may be developing into a tropical depression.

In the ongoing search for the new Hurricane Center Director, the Miami Herald's Martin Merzer reports today that interim director Ed Rappaport has taken himself out of the running for the top spot.