Washington Wonders: Will We or Won't We? Showers possible, then continued dry

Now

Sunny, warm, humid. With only 3 days so far this month with measurable rain (average for September is 7.2) and none in the past 12 days, the Washington metro area is wondering if we'll get anything significant out of a frontal system that's barely moving out of the Ohio Valley. (In the 18 hours ending early this afternoon, it moved only across the state of Ohio.) By mid afternoon, a line of thunderstorms had fired up across far western Maryland and eastern West Virginia, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Allegany County until 4:45. East of the mountains, however, activity has been minimal at best in the dry tongue extending across the central Mid Atlantic region.

Temperatures this afternoon are running a couple of degrees less warm at regional observing stations with fewer 90s than in the last couple of days, but humidity is still noticeable with dewpoints mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

Infrared satellite image at 3:30 this afternoon from Unisys

Tonight and Tomorrow

Warm and humid, chance of showers. Warm and humid conditions will continue with a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms through this evening and overnight lows from the upper 60s downtown to the mid 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy in the morning and a little cooler, with decreasing clouds and lower humidity in the afternoon. Highs will be 78-83°.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

Tropical Storm Karen is a little weaker today with maximum winds of 60 miles per hour as of 5pm, and further slow weakening is likely as it continues on a west-northwesterly track which should keep it from threatening land.

TD 13 was promoted to Tropical Storm Lorenzo early this afternoon in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Its maximum winds are now around 70 mph, and it is expected to hit the Mexican coast as a hurricane.

Capitol Climate

Today's WaPo has several items of interest in the climate policy area:

• "Kaine, O'Malley Urge U.S. Action on Global Warming": Both local governors testified yesterday at a Senate Environment and Public Works Committee hearing on the effects of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. The Dog Bites Man Award goes to this article for the statement, "One contrary note in the hearing came from Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okla.), who has said he thinks climate change is a hoax."
• "The Climate Change Peril That Insurers See": An op-ed piece co-authored by state insurance officials from Montana and Florida discusses the economic implications of global warming on the insurance industry in widely differing venues.
• "White House Taking Unearned Credit for Emissions Cuts": The administration is playing games with data and semantics on the subject of mandatory vs. voluntary emission controls.