Gustav will be moving over very warm water in the northwestern Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions, so it is very likely to become a hurricane some time today. It could even become a major hurricane by the time it reaches western Cuba. One intensity model gives a 28% chance of an increase in strength of 30 knots or more in the next 24 hours. There is still wide disagreement among models on the final landfall point, so all interests in the northern Gulf of Mexico should remain alert.
Tropical Storm Hanna is somewhat disorganized as it passes north of the Leeward Islands. Maximum winds are 50 mph as of 11 am. Gradual strengthening is likely with the storm possibly becoming a hurricane by the middle of the weekend.
Gustav Economic Impacts
- After opening higher, natural gas prices are up a little less than 2% in mid day trading.
- WSJ Environmental Capital reviews yesterday's counterintuitive energy price action.
- StormWire says Gustav is Worst Threat to Oil Industry since Katrina