tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-43831098101858618422024-03-14T00:11:26.392-04:00CapitalClimateA <a href="http://planet3.org/">Planet3.0</a> blog <br>
Science & Society: Weather, Climate, Policy, and Capital <br>From the perspective of over half a century of weather watching
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<a href="http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/">CapitalClimate Home</a>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.comBlogger1547125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-86910894722964107322018-05-23T17:05:00.000-04:002019-03-20T15:28:21.387-04:00A Half Century of Climate Change: Personal PerspectiveOn the occasion of the 50th reunion of the Class of 1968:<br />
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I aspire to be "a man who knows that the world is not given by his fathers, but borrowed from his children" [Wendell Berry].<br />
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During the more than 70 years we have borrowed the world, fossil fuels have steadily increased global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. In 1946 it was 310 parts/million (ppm), 9% above pre-industrial levels, rising continually to above 400 ppm today for the first time in human history, over 40% above pre-industrial levels.<br />
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CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas. At 0.04% of the total atmosphere, it might seem insignificant. What does this have to do with a 50th reunion? Actually, it enables our existence and ability to celebrate this occasion. Understanding it also had a profound impact on my own life so far.<br />
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Almost a century before we were born, in 1859, John Tyndall discovered that CO2 and water vapor absorb heat (infrared radiation). Paraphrasing Tyndall:<br />
<blockquote>The atmosphere admits of the entrance of the solar heat, but greenhouse gases check its exit; and the result is a tendency to accumulate heat at the surface of the planet.<br />
</blockquote>Otherwise, Earth would be a lifeless ice ball with an average temperature below –19°C/-2°F.<br />
With each decade since 1968, climate science research has become more conclusive, but U.S. national policy reaction has become more resistive. Shortly after our 10th reunion, a National Academy of Sciences report (1979) concluded that increasing atmospheric CO2 would likely cause climate changes. In the summer of our 20th reunion in 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen confirmed that observations showed human activity was in fact increasing global temperatures. In the 30th reunion year of 1998, Yale PhD Michael Mann published the famous "hockey stick" graph that showed an unprecedented rise in global temperatures over the last century compared to the previous millennium. The Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions was also adopted that year, but the U.S. Senate rejected it. While 35th reunion classmates celebrated with White House selfies, yet another decade was squandered as a presidential administration run by fossil fuel advocates actively worked to suppress climate research and its policy implications. In the latest decade, the Paris climate agreement pledged 195 countries to non-binding targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but the U.S. repudiated it in 2017.<br />
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Yale’s role in my involvement with the climate issue was tangential, but tangible. Far more important than long-forgotten math theorems were the critical thinking skills sharpened through rigorous study of subjects as varied as: history of the novel, causes of the Civil War, roots of tragedy and comedy (food, sex, and money!).<br />
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My interest in weather, math/physics major, and threat of the draft led to a NOAA Corps commission in 1969. I spent a year of that service programming weather models at the National Weather Service (NWS). Following my meteorology MS at MIT in 1974, I returned to NWS for 5 years, before wandering off to the computer industry at IBM and AOL. Through the miracle of stock options, I retired early and taught computer programming at the University of Maryland. After the internet bubble burst, I rediscovered my first love of weather by blogging on local weather and climate. I have become more concerned with climate science and policy the more I learned.<br />
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Every decade that passes without major CO2 emissions reduction makes the climate change problem more difficult. I'm trying to communicate this issue (<a href="http://twitter.com/capital_climate">twitter.com/capital_climate</a>) for the benefit of my daughter (Duke '00), son (Yale '03), and granddaughter (Yale '38?). What are we doing to preserve the world we’ve borrowed from the children and grandchildren we all cherish and those yet unborn?<br />
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Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-46201533028586740372014-03-16T17:43:00.000-04:002014-03-23T19:43:45.029-04:00Washington DC Climate: March 2014<b>Latest update:</b> March 23<br />
For daily updates most days around 6 pm EDT:<br />
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March is on track for an average temperature of 42.7°, which would be 4.1° below the long-term average and the coldest since 1993, when it was 42.2°. Precipitation remains below average.<br />
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Washington DC daily temperature departures from normal and monthly average to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgISWOEVxLPtupRLWUFyRY7NTPYddYlwxXN5X8N3e3y5N4_-odqCvpMnYgR59QmC4gxzx8vvapM9kH7U3jhFp8UGGpGF29CfVgvGUObp3fey-0LrukFqe41qpD_GtrFoQ9G-s3xn8a9fFE/s1600/dca.temp.mar14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgISWOEVxLPtupRLWUFyRY7NTPYddYlwxXN5X8N3e3y5N4_-odqCvpMnYgR59QmC4gxzx8vvapM9kH7U3jhFp8UGGpGF29CfVgvGUObp3fey-0LrukFqe41qpD_GtrFoQ9G-s3xn8a9fFE/s400/dca.temp.mar14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Washington DC daily precipitation and monthly departure from normal to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGde8EciHceyYSQycxj8YJuhcES5fgwAub0kx1vYMXy1YZ9-2p8ly9n-ddMwMqc1esV5NKayrnvIoIyVVYZfj23W61_uAt4oKaK9W3enisF4h81pqIGN1e7UY76hXyoyUrAfYKSOOJPFY/s1600/dca.precip.mar14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGde8EciHceyYSQycxj8YJuhcES5fgwAub0kx1vYMXy1YZ9-2p8ly9n-ddMwMqc1esV5NKayrnvIoIyVVYZfj23W61_uAt4oKaK9W3enisF4h81pqIGN1e7UY76hXyoyUrAfYKSOOJPFY/s400/dca.precip.mar14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data. Background image from <a href="http://www.weatherbook.com">Kevin Ambrose</a>.</i>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-52792689935844535712014-02-28T17:10:00.000-05:002014-03-03T17:31:38.615-05:00Washington DC Climate: February 2014<b>Latest update:</b> February 28<br />
For daily updates most days around 5 pm EST:<br />
<a href="https://twitter.com/capital_climate" class="twitter-follow-button" data-show-count="false">Follow @capital_climate</a><br />
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Final February charts:<br />
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Washington DC daily temperature departures from normal and monthly average to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKReW7Qwm37BdKViDqMrTahopdL4orgkv3IHjXRMvavhhEMqapUDFlcGC1Q_D5dElO4OmkiWVx_dYUSMRtWZb7u7QgbyOFRJAEwZTtyd2rkNRcL6OrUoYSQRxD3fEhk2NovN_ACXiojR0/s1600/dca.temp.feb14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKReW7Qwm37BdKViDqMrTahopdL4orgkv3IHjXRMvavhhEMqapUDFlcGC1Q_D5dElO4OmkiWVx_dYUSMRtWZb7u7QgbyOFRJAEwZTtyd2rkNRcL6OrUoYSQRxD3fEhk2NovN_ACXiojR0/s400/dca.temp.feb14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Washington DC daily precipitation and monthly departure from normal to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieMR9eKk0qWCFIQE2vMHrWvqaqqoXBjBVdyq7llenkUy_jPS-ZZl7KJ5KJmvTm7Nw1Jrf-ujebSzp8HS9JFqIdhS2wVNVVJ3BsRtIFmPvJvW6zMBt-UoyV4u2Gyso59EVh462AOdwCuCI/s1600/dca.precip.feb14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieMR9eKk0qWCFIQE2vMHrWvqaqqoXBjBVdyq7llenkUy_jPS-ZZl7KJ5KJmvTm7Nw1Jrf-ujebSzp8HS9JFqIdhS2wVNVVJ3BsRtIFmPvJvW6zMBt-UoyV4u2Gyso59EVh462AOdwCuCI/s400/dca.precip.feb14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data. Background image from <a href="http://www.weatherbook.com">Kevin Ambrose</a>.</i>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-81666914799749932592014-02-03T23:54:00.001-05:002014-02-03T23:54:41.545-05:00Top 3 Warmest Januaries Across AlaskaFrom National Weather Service Alaska (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8-df9LKtscIxh7JVMQTjAc1GZcfbHvIxzU-uf7seaF2kW4f2hFVStlEuTiE9sdcAJKsdbRW-WFXdw-DxBgcbQ12whxEySzQbkVS6HCstsT0eqFUhdoQAhlXpCHl7-LpNS6soKU8WhG-4/s1600/ak.temp.jan14.records.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8-df9LKtscIxh7JVMQTjAc1GZcfbHvIxzU-uf7seaF2kW4f2hFVStlEuTiE9sdcAJKsdbRW-WFXdw-DxBgcbQ12whxEySzQbkVS6HCstsT0eqFUhdoQAhlXpCHl7-LpNS6soKU8WhG-4/s640/ak.temp.jan14.records.jpg" /></a></div>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-6945655077834525262014-01-31T17:51:00.000-05:002014-02-07T17:56:14.134-05:00Washington DC Climate: January 2014Washington DC daily temperature departures and monthly average to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7ez_tps8K33UTJ464Azc8qcUiv250az9_hS8Wd10WAlLmUglEwJ7U25n9wHMZhDr2vvsQY6VWxRmr57mY2WQH7flM-Qx22bD2IcKRIsIpHzpmPnw_RxSPvQyJikWoFF7mW4j_Ff-Sb08/s1600/dca.temp.jan14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7ez_tps8K33UTJ464Azc8qcUiv250az9_hS8Wd10WAlLmUglEwJ7U25n9wHMZhDr2vvsQY6VWxRmr57mY2WQH7flM-Qx22bD2IcKRIsIpHzpmPnw_RxSPvQyJikWoFF7mW4j_Ff-Sb08/s400/dca.temp.jan14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Washington DC daily precipitation and monthly departure to date (click to enlarge):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicDomZ3MUc9MHR5dgSJXnLIJ0ndxB7nWZLjIKcEGGdUzOLo3-xxxSA2Fv3-MNC1r6CMVV2isgGX8yqQOQRWeWeBSTSunqQ64tR-USK5Z5iklPtgz9d7_G0obkCoEGaIh87hKD0q-cNRrM/s1600/dca.precip.jan14.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicDomZ3MUc9MHR5dgSJXnLIJ0ndxB7nWZLjIKcEGGdUzOLo3-xxxSA2Fv3-MNC1r6CMVV2isgGX8yqQOQRWeWeBSTSunqQ64tR-USK5Z5iklPtgz9d7_G0obkCoEGaIh87hKD0q-cNRrM/s400/dca.precip.jan14.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data. Background image from <a href="http://www.weatherbook.com">Kevin Ambrose</a>.</i>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-80724516007297003612014-01-19T18:42:00.000-05:002014-01-19T21:12:26.698-05:00Omaha Crushes 119-Year Temperature Record<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZUhW7yQi4-fdKCKS44s1U7d2jOiuE9XCq0Jt95jaU8PAjUB5W2UM6tEcr9DFPczRfWUEeXmWzq3lGwfWdy6EQ3o6uUKhJQ05F13mv263j1LcNqRyy4NMy7FgJ-NIBLhwpgAUmu59AdI/s1600/temp.us.011914.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOZUhW7yQi4-fdKCKS44s1U7d2jOiuE9XCq0Jt95jaU8PAjUB5W2UM6tEcr9DFPczRfWUEeXmWzq3lGwfWdy6EQ3o6uUKhJQ05F13mv263j1LcNqRyy4NMy7FgJ-NIBLhwpgAUmu59AdI/s400/temp.us.011914.gif" /></a></div><br />
<i>Image (click to enlarge): U.S. temperatures at 3 pm CST, January 19, 2014, from Unisys </i><br />
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<b>9 PM Update:</b> Added Hastings, Broken Bow, Imperial NE and Salina, Russell KS<br />
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<b>Original post:</b><br />
A mid-winter mini-heatwave tied or broke long-standing high temperature records across at least 3 states on January 19, according to preliminary reports from the National Weather Service (NWS). The 65° at Omaha absolutely crushed the previous record for the date of 60°, which dated back 119 years to 1895. Omaha is one of the original official Weather Bureau observing sites whose climate history began in 1871. An 1895 record also fell at Lincoln, where it was 66°.<br />
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The preliminary records reported by the NWS (POR indicates the year in which the period of record began):<br />
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<table border="1"><tr><td> </td><td> Location </td><td> Record </td><td> Previous </td><td> Date </td><td> POR </td></tr>
<tr><td> NE </td><td> Lincoln </td><td> 66 </td><td> 65 </td><td> 1895 </td><td> 1887 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Norfolk </td><td> 66 </td><td> 66 </td><td> 1921 </td><td> 1888 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Omaha </td><td> 65 </td><td> 60 </td><td> 1895 </td><td> 1871 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> McCook </td><td> 68 </td><td> 66 </td><td> 1997 </td><td> 1896 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Chadron </td><td> 61 </td><td> 60 </td><td> 2003 </td><td> 1895 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Grand Island </td><td> 68 </td><td> 62 </td><td> 1997 </td><td> 1895 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Hastings </td><td> 67 </td><td> 62 </td><td> 1921 </td><td> 1894 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Broken Bow </td><td> 65 </td><td> 64 </td><td> 1951 </td><td> 1894 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Imperial </td><td> 66 </td><td> 66 </td><td> 1911 </td><td> 1893 </td></tr>
<tr><td> KS </td><td> Hill City </td><td> 69 </td><td> 66 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> 1896 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Salina </td><td> 68 </td><td> 68 </td><td> 2003 </td><td> 1894 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Russell </td><td> 69 </td><td> 69 </td><td> 1986 </td><td> 0 </td></tr>
<tr><td> IA </td><td> Sioux City </td><td> 65 </td><td> 59 </td><td> 1921 </td><td> 1889 </td></tr>
</table>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-65583269313442945582013-12-06T17:31:00.000-05:002013-12-06T17:32:18.559-05:00It Hasn't Cooled Since 1989;Washington December Daily Low Temperature Records<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyGeb4bwQunQq9ExfK0ZlnBa48zeDDkhh1qdl3q0pe1RxZcakuNmN1tZ6p-zcDe6uVLNw63-ibP-xtj_c9VrASlm-QMwscJVl5VEbOizosc8bIMbccSqKnWevnrwpbHSBQolkV_bR1OKg/s1600/dca.temp.dec.daily_lows.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhyGeb4bwQunQq9ExfK0ZlnBa48zeDDkhh1qdl3q0pe1RxZcakuNmN1tZ6p-zcDe6uVLNw63-ibP-xtj_c9VrASlm-QMwscJVl5VEbOizosc8bIMbccSqKnWevnrwpbHSBQolkV_bR1OKg/s400/dca.temp.dec.daily_lows.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpayD-EYwnKD98ihXLgxK7kAbMtagX7NkA7Ejiy5Q1MA2J70E9O0QHXusWU-f9s2S6i5eMrTsFhoOZZMyAgPLY9Er_bD9-BqRTxgeRIfdFxpiy-3lx-moO06HV7m6iODNpwd5gPhL2d8/s1600/dca.temp.dec.daily_lows.decadal.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjxpayD-EYwnKD98ihXLgxK7kAbMtagX7NkA7Ejiy5Q1MA2J70E9O0QHXusWU-f9s2S6i5eMrTsFhoOZZMyAgPLY9Er_bD9-BqRTxgeRIfdFxpiy-3lx-moO06HV7m6iODNpwd5gPhL2d8/s400/dca.temp.dec.daily_lows.decadal.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>Images (click to enlarge): December daily record low temperatures for Washington, DC, by year of occurrence; Number of December daily record lows per decade; CapitalClimate charts from National Weather Service data</i><br />
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If you can remember the last time Washington, DC set a daily record low temperature in December, you've been hanging around too long in Babble-On on the Potomac. It was the first year of the G.H.W. Bush administration when a record low of 7° was set on December 23, 1989. The high of 22° that day was also a record low maximum for the date. Since then, there have been no new December record daily lows in the decades of the 1990s, 2000s, or so far in the 2010s. The only other decade with no December cold records was the 1950s.<br />
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Here are some other statistics of Washington December low temperature records:<br />
- Half (15) of the daily records were set over 100 years ago, from 1872 through 1904, and 2 more were set 99 years ago.<br />
- The 1880s had the most records of any decade with 7, followed by the 1910s with 5. Interestingly, all of the 1880s records occurred in even-numbered years.<br />
- Except for the 1980s (4 records), no decade since the 1910s has had more than 2 records.<br />
- The all-time coldest December temperature was -13° on December 31, 1880. This was just 2° warmer than the all-time Washington low of -15° on February 11, 1899. It was also a record -7° on December 30, 1880. These are the only December dates with lows below 0°.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-33541166448861028732013-09-29T21:08:00.000-04:002013-09-30T12:42:53.842-04:00Rain's Early Fall Smashes Pacific Northwest Precipitation Records<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Mk1Hhv-hKslptOffhCJSLOTRA5fK1Hwxgu8uqV8VFxTlJxzZUW50TYu1q_Vw8E3okBp66cew99BWVdLp3qROVKqrsm8wmhBeHt9_lLak7IVzFvTQbTPd6labOBBMQqeMVf-gQUrYBHw/s1600/precip.oregon.092913.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2Mk1Hhv-hKslptOffhCJSLOTRA5fK1Hwxgu8uqV8VFxTlJxzZUW50TYu1q_Vw8E3okBp66cew99BWVdLp3qROVKqrsm8wmhBeHt9_lLak7IVzFvTQbTPd6labOBBMQqeMVf-gQUrYBHw/s400/precip.oregon.092913.jpg" /></a></div><br />
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<b>September 30 Update:</b> September monthly precipitation records have also been set in Oregon at Eugene, Hillsboro, McMinnville (second highest), Portland (downtown and airport), and Salem, as well as at Vancouver, Washington. Details have been added below.<br />
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<b>Original post:</b><br />
Driven by persistent abnormally low pressure in the northeastern Pacific, an early onset of the rainy season is smashing precipitation records for September in the Pacific Northwest. Through this morning, Astoria, Oregon had broken century-plus records for all-time wettest September (by over 1"), wettest September day (by almost 1"), and wettest 2-day and 3-day totals for September. These records were further extended by the 2.00" which had fallen through 4 pm this afternoon, tying the daily record for Sept. 29 from 1951 and bringing the monthly total to date to 10.10", which is just 0.10" less than 500% of normal.<br />
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The rainfall map above shows that large parts of coastal Oregon have seen precipitation for the month of September to date (through the 28th) which is over 400% of average, with some areas over 600%.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Nzk0_3nd9vtMyYaCHHhkcO0SsJZcx2XL99_sMhstAuOw-YfgWYJJTRJMYM8NUDZnxSha-kQaubTTWixYYgjXa0wQYyq-MUIZl-WQyKofYba86tBdD2SRCGA0TYWmLeKjUErGVxfazeU/s1600/500mb.anomaly.sd.092913.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Nzk0_3nd9vtMyYaCHHhkcO0SsJZcx2XL99_sMhstAuOw-YfgWYJJTRJMYM8NUDZnxSha-kQaubTTWixYYgjXa0wQYyq-MUIZl-WQyKofYba86tBdD2SRCGA0TYWmLeKjUErGVxfazeU/s320/500mb.anomaly.sd.092913.gif" /></a></div><br />
The map to the right (click to enlarge) shows the pressure pattern Saturday evening over North America near the middle of the atmosphere, expressed as the standard deviation of the height of the 500 mb level. There is a huge area of greater than 3 standard deviations below average along the coast and offshore of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. (Note that in a randomly distributed "bell curve", 99.7% of all observations would be within 3 standard deviations of the average.)<br />
<br />
<br />
The National Weather Service (NWS) report for Astoria: <pre>AS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING...OVER 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ON
ASTORIA AIRPORT THIS WEEKEND. THIS RAINFALL HAS SHATTERED NUMEROUS
SEPTEMBER RECORDS...REMARKABLE CONSIDERING THAT RECORDS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN ASTORIA SINCE 1890.
RAINFALL RECORDS BROKEN IN ASTORIA
----------------------------------------
1. ALL-TIME WETTEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD...
1. SEP 2013......... 9.70 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1906......... 8.66 INCHES.
3. SEP 1920......... 8.55 INCHES.
4. SEP 1905......... 7.38 INCHES.
2. WETTEST SEPTEMBER DAY ON RECORD...
1. SEP 28 2013...... 3.56 INCHES.
2. SEP 16 1997...... 2.67 INCHES.
3. SEP 30 1953...... 2.41 INCHES.
4. SEP 13 1935...... 2.27 INCHES.
3. WETTEST 2-DAY TOTAL FOR SEPTEMBER...TOP 2 NOW SET IN 2013.
1. SEP 28-29 2013... 5.16 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 27-28 2013... 4.55 INCHES.
3. SEP 3-4 1913..... 3.46 INCHES.
4. SEP 16-17 1997... 3.42 INCHES.
4. WETTEST 3-DAY TOTAL FOR SEPTEMBER...
1. SEP 27-29 2013... 6.15 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 2-4 1913..... 4.31 INCHES.
3. SEP 15-17 1997... 4.16 INCHES.
</pre>In Washington state, daily rainfall records were set for September 28 at Seattle-Tacoma, Olympia, Hoquiam, and Quillayute. An inspection of National Climatic Data Center records indicates that the 2.93" at Olympia was not only more than triple the old record, it was also an all-time daily record for September, well above the 1.67 on Sept. 17, 2010. Olympia records began in 1948. The NWS reports: <pre>A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.93 INCHES WAS SET AT OLYMPIA WA AIRPORT ON
SEP 28TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.82 SET IN 1971.
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.71 INCHES WAS SET AT SEATTLE-TACOMA WA
AIRPORT ON SEP 28TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 0.83 SET IN 1948.
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.78 INCHES WAS SET AT HOQUIAM WA AIRPORT ON
SEP 28TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.02 SET IN 1962.
A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.93 INCHES WAS SET AT QUILLAYUTE WA AIRPORT
ON SEP 28TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.32 SET IN 1971.
</pre>The NWS reported on September 30 that several other locations in Washington and Oregon have set September rainfall records: <pre>1. ASTORIA (1890)...
1. SEP 2013......... 10.51 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1906......... 8.66 INCHES.
3. SEP 1920......... 8.55 INCHES.
4. SEP 1905......... 7.38 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 2.14 INCHES.
2. EUGENE (1890)...
1. SEP 2013......... 6.16 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1927......... 5.21 INCHES.
3. SEP 1911......... 4.91 INCHES.
4. SEP 1986......... 4.65 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.29 INCHES.
3. HILLSBORO (1929)...
1. SEP 2013......... 6.10 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1945......... 3.68 INCHES.
3. SEP 1982......... 3.46 INCHES.
4. SEP 1977......... 3.43 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.26 INCHES.
4. MCMINNVILLE (1894)...
1. SEP 1996......... 7.58 INCHES.
2. SEP 2013......... 5.58 INCHES AND COUNTING
3. SEP 1901......... 4.83 INCHES.
4. SEP 1914......... 4.28 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.31 INCHES.
5. PORTLAND AIRPORT (1940)...
1. SEP 2013......... 5.06 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1986......... 4.30 INCHES.
3. SEP 1982......... 3.98 INCHES.
4. SEP 1945......... 3.96 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.47 INCHES
6. PORTLAND DOWNTOWN (1872)...
1. SEP 2013......... 6.21 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1927......... 5.52 INCHES.
3. SEP 1911......... 5.19 INCHES.
4. SEP 1969......... 4.87 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.54 INCHES.
7. SALEM (1872)...
1. SEP 2013......... 6.63 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1927......... 5.52 INCHES.
3. SEP 1911......... 5.19 INCHES.
4. SEP 1969......... 4.87 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.28 INCHES.
7. VANCOUVER, WA (1896)...
1. SEP 2013......... 4.98 INCHES AND COUNTING.
2. SEP 1911......... 4.88 INCHES.
3. SEP 1925......... 4.46 INCHES.
4. SEP 1927......... 4.35 INCHES.
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL: 1.56 INCHES.
</pre><br />
<br />
<br />
Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-32402095422588212762013-08-13T14:54:00.002-04:002013-08-13T14:57:41.822-04:00Super Summer Soaker Phloods Philadelphia Rainfall Record; Second Extreme in 3 Years <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimulwElvcGa6kJh4Kzv0Ayjwn8ytGITzlNglM4FyfViGu7uL8ts4McT0NfpNWkLaVZedHwVIM_B1PLeLlJ-BOcs7n-KOCjQM0jzH89gpToQA1TNFK9CDQB0C4V8KVFZTY-1-ygDnZsLO8/s1600/precip.phl.summer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimulwElvcGa6kJh4Kzv0Ayjwn8ytGITzlNglM4FyfViGu7uL8ts4McT0NfpNWkLaVZedHwVIM_B1PLeLlJ-BOcs7n-KOCjQM0jzH89gpToQA1TNFK9CDQB0C4V8KVFZTY-1-ygDnZsLO8/s400/precip.phl.summer.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikMIYUzJCUQZgmu4aRJIIITeDDyWcMPVpr69jlJLB1HBiiRTXk-kGX9tTQmGWQpQRffKC7AUMlq8eRh5YlGRUIHruuNbZ8g2NmWPBktQBXqpqADUGNK_PNvtfUa0utuYJovcK8vbBnXqM/s1600/precip.phl.081313.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikMIYUzJCUQZgmu4aRJIIITeDDyWcMPVpr69jlJLB1HBiiRTXk-kGX9tTQmGWQpQRffKC7AUMlq8eRh5YlGRUIHruuNbZ8g2NmWPBktQBXqpqADUGNK_PNvtfUa0utuYJovcK8vbBnXqM/s400/precip.phl.081313.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>Images (click to enlarge): Top 10 wettest summers in Philadelphia, CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service (NWS) data; Philadelphia precipitation percentage of normal for 90 days ending August 12, 2013, from NWS<br />
</i><br />
There's a good reason if the Philadelphia Phanatic is looking greener than usual lately. After the summer rainfall record was broken just 1 day into August, another 2.02" this morning has pushed the Philadelphia seasonal precipitation total even further into record territory. With over 2 weeks left, the unofficial June-August rainfall total of 27.56" is barely less than 3" above the old record of 24.58" set just 2 years ago. The seasonal total to date is 245% of the climatological average for the entire 3 summer months.<br />
<br />
Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-52012899217470623342013-07-18T13:59:00.001-04:002013-07-19T10:47:05.983-04:00San Juan Swamps Century-Plus Rainfall Record<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcK2B8Tv-6TuxzCMKGA4Uwws1jLfUnwbo5q5ztL507vi7BYNP5qyKrLoUuwNwz4JEWeurNI2ccXf7czuLJae9IqusVqsXDYIk4bdpZlBRvOfibAtysxAY_Jrw2rQf8JZDdafsJxE6SCzg/s1600/precip.pr.071813.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcK2B8Tv-6TuxzCMKGA4Uwws1jLfUnwbo5q5ztL507vi7BYNP5qyKrLoUuwNwz4JEWeurNI2ccXf7czuLJae9IqusVqsXDYIk4bdpZlBRvOfibAtysxAY_Jrw2rQf8JZDdafsJxE6SCzg/s400/precip.pr.071813.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>Image (click to enlarge): Puerto Rico 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, July 19, 2013, from National Weather Service</i><br />
<br />
<b>Midnight Update:</b> The final daily rainfall for San Juan is 9.23", the second highest for any day on record.<br />
<br />
The year-to-date rainfall total is now 185% of normal and only about 8" below the normal for the entire year. If San Juan were to tie the record low rainfall for each of the remaining 5 months in the year, it would still finish 2013 less than 1" below normal.<br />
<br />
<b>5 PM Update:</b> It's baaack! With 0.67" more in this hour, the total of 9.11" is now the second highest for any day in San Juan history and a little more than half an inch from the top spot. Moderate rain continues.<br />
<br />
<b>4 PM Update:</b> Rain ended with only 0.02" in the past hour, but less than half an inch in the rest of the day would make second place on San Juan's all-time daily record list. The NWS reports that more is on the way.<br />
<br />
The monthly total of 11.64" also breaks the old July record of 11.08" just 2 years ago.<br />
<br />
<b>3 PM Update:</b> Another 1.91" in the past hour brings the San Juan daily rainfall total to 8.42", which is the second highest for any summer day and the 4th highest of all time.<br />
<br />
<b>2 PM Update:</b> With light rain continuing to fall, the daily total so far is now 6.51", which is the 10th highest for any day in any month. The previous top 10 San Juan daily rainfall amounts: <pre>15-Aug 9.67 in 1944
18-Sep 8.84 in 1989
14-Dec 8.84 in 1910
10-Sep 8.20 in 1996
11-Nov 7.92 in 1931
13-Sep 7.39 in 1928
15-Apr 7.10 in 1988
25-Nov 7.07 in 1979
12-Dec 6.96 in 1981
7-Apr 6.19 in 1915 </pre><b>Original Post:</b><br />
Puerto Rico should get a lot of heavy downpours in the summer with tropical cyclones, right? Well, with no organized tropical system whatever, San Juan has just smashed its all-time July daily rainfall record. The National Weather Service reports that the 4.92" so far today has exceeded by a wide margin the old record for July 18 of 3.19", set in 1950. As of that report, heavy rain was still falling. <br />
<br />
Today's amount is also well above the old daily record for July of 4.04" on July 7, 1901. It's only the 5th time July daily precipitation has exceeded 3" in a climate history which began in 1898. <br />
<br />
The previous top 5 July daily rainfall amounts for San Juan, from the National Climatic Data Center: <pre>7-Jul 4.04 in 1901
23-Jul 3.66 in 1926
18-Jul 3.19 in 1950
12-Jul 3.01 in 1905
24-Jul 3.00 in 1949 </pre>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-59021803068964608492013-07-16T01:00:00.000-04:002013-07-16T01:00:20.211-04:00Record Heat in Northern Maine, Eastern Canada<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXveEdQXGM8pOqN-xe5Wu7zrflDoF5GdV9bbme6um0BphK8j5XS9sjTcFgDnwK4vvLPbUybI7mUdxx-Qbvm6PBSd7cuG1M0W6DDmctK9LbzCqdl5vKIq4JsCFXmpMPBCgDoYDYwHTRGFU/s1600/temp.071513.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjXveEdQXGM8pOqN-xe5Wu7zrflDoF5GdV9bbme6um0BphK8j5XS9sjTcFgDnwK4vvLPbUybI7mUdxx-Qbvm6PBSd7cuG1M0W6DDmctK9LbzCqdl5vKIq4JsCFXmpMPBCgDoYDYwHTRGFU/s320/temp.071513.gif" /></a></div><br />
<i>Image (click to enlarge): U.S. temperatures at 4 pm EDT, July 15, 2013, from Unisys</i><br />
<br />
Record heat extended from northernmost Maine into eastern Canada on Monday, July 15: <br />
- The high temperature at <b>Millinocket</b> of 94° tied the record for the date set in 1952.<br />
- The 94° also at <b>Caribou</b> broke the record of 93° set in 1952 and tied in 1968. It was also the hottest day there since July 20, 1991. Caribou climate records began in 1939.<br />
- The CBC <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2013/07/15/nl-ryan-snoddon-thirty-degrees-715.html">reports</a> that<b> St. John's</b>, Newfoundland had its second hottest temperature for any day since records began there in 1942. The 31.2°C (88°F) high was only slightly below the all-time record of 31.5°C on July 6, 1983. <br />
<br />
Caribou also broke a record the previous day with 91°, which beat the 90° in 1943.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-53845035611714563732013-07-12T01:28:00.000-04:002013-07-12T14:28:24.889-04:00Record Rainfall Drenches Dulles; Update: Rain Ransacks Roanoke Record<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge2d0PdKNe27VYQ1YLEgSflE8IBHWal1hFKu58zX7QqKYueqJO_hTsb4dC8tFO0ciHuHe8qKwTzlDCOHPqnfJ_jn86gAaRF2XgFOaJkj0iME7_xYtmwElnyIIk3eWVRLHL4auzK1F5il4/s1600/us_dca_closeradar_large_usen.071213.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEge2d0PdKNe27VYQ1YLEgSflE8IBHWal1hFKu58zX7QqKYueqJO_hTsb4dC8tFO0ciHuHe8qKwTzlDCOHPqnfJ_jn86gAaRF2XgFOaJkj0iME7_xYtmwElnyIIk3eWVRLHL4auzK1F5il4/s320/us_dca_closeradar_large_usen.071213.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg73HLwh0hwiSpI22MPOkfx9nyznAxLPjTfMx1ulvZKNteLB_kMXbsX8hvDKO9qimGyla7wBGFlRB_hhwMsDrMmG7IHz_l8S_Ds3POYq1hjWR6kvyeL1ZDjpc8Ak0dOeSMW9Gfb1zMCp0/s1600/precip.dca.071213.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg73HLwh0hwiSpI22MPOkfx9nyznAxLPjTfMx1ulvZKNteLB_kMXbsX8hvDKO9qimGyla7wBGFlRB_hhwMsDrMmG7IHz_l8S_Ds3POYq1hjWR6kvyeL1ZDjpc8Ak0dOeSMW9Gfb1zMCp0/s320/precip.dca.071213.jpg" /></a></div><br />
<i>Images (click to enlarge): Washington, DC regional radar, 12:49 am EDT, July 12, 2013, from The Weather Channel; 24-hour precipitation ending 8 am EDT, July 13, 2013, for Washington region, from National Weather Service</i><br />
<br />
<b>2 PM EDT Update:</b> The 3.88" a day earlier (July 10) at Roanoke smashed the daily record of 2.67" in 1931. It was also a new all-time July daily record in a climate history which began over a century ago in 1912. Daily amounts of 3" or more had been observed only twice before in July at Roanoke.<br />
<br />
The 1.84" at Richmond also broke a July 10 record of 1.36" set just last year.<br />
<br />
To the north, the 2.44" at Pittsburgh beat the daily record of 1.81" in 1958. <br />
<br />
<b>10 AM EDT Update:</b> The preliminary July 11 record daily total rainfall for Dulles is 3.71". The 24-hour total ending at 8 am is 4.49", with some light rain continuing. <br />
<br />
<b>2 AM EDT Update:</b> Dulles has added 0.22" from lighter thundershowers in the past hour for a storm total so far of 3.79". The reported month-to-date total is now 370% of normal.<br />
<br />
<b>Original Post:</b><br />
Persistent thunderstorms Thursday evening have produced record rainfall in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC. At Dulles Airport, the unofficial total of 3.61" through midnight (standard time) was over 3 times the old record for July 11 of 1.12" in 1977. Climate records at Dulles date back only a half-century to 1962, but this was also enough to beat the all-time July daily record of 3.50" on July 27, 1994. <br />
<br />
The official climate record for Washington, DC, which began in 1871, shows that July daily rainfalls of 4" or more have occurred on at least 3 occasions:<br />
4.69", July 9, 1970<br />
4.35", July 22, 1969<br />
4.25", July 30, 1878 Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-40262840481360913132013-06-28T22:20:00.000-04:002013-07-03T17:38:12.977-04:00Southwest Scorched by Historic Heat; Update: All-Time June Records at Death Valley, Needles<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb5iuYzDC0rPt5kxtiLzw8DaIiyKV2MUBPW42bv0MIJhpo3XJhnmRk7rwf3fkuVmDykhGbEC2o3WfZzwyvzZXmGnpIgxV6KU4a1gV7zJWTiShwSbJUnOVe_4r1xMZjs8_62R_Qkl6bFhE/s640/temp_con_hi.062813.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgb5iuYzDC0rPt5kxtiLzw8DaIiyKV2MUBPW42bv0MIJhpo3XJhnmRk7rwf3fkuVmDykhGbEC2o3WfZzwyvzZXmGnpIgxV6KU4a1gV7zJWTiShwSbJUnOVe_4r1xMZjs8_62R_Qkl6bFhE/s640/temp_con_hi.062813.gif" /></a></div><i>Image (click to enlarge): U.S. daily high temperatures, June 28, 2013, from Unisys. Note the bright blue area of 120°+.<br />
</i><br />
<b>July 1 Update:</b> The 129° at the aptly-named Furnace Creek in Death Valley on June 30 was a new all-time June high temperature record there. The previous record of 128° was set on June 29, 1994 and tied on the same date this year. The June 30 reading also tied the all-time June record for the U.S. which was originally set 111 years ago on June 23, 1902 in the former town of Volcano, California. <br />
<br />
The June average temperature of 101.3° at Death Valley easily surpassed the old June record of 100.4° in 1960. The June average daily minimum of 87.1° also set a record, exceeding the 86.8° in 1977.<br />
<br />
At Needles, California, where climate history extends back to 1888, all-time June records were set for:<br />
- Average temperature of 95.8° (old record 94.8° in 1994)<br />
- Monthly maximum 123° on the 29th (old record 122° on June 11, 1918 and June 29, 1924)<br />
- Average minimum 81.5° (old record 81.0° in 1981)<br />
<br />
<b>June 30, 5 PM PDT Update:</b> As of 5 pm, Las Vegas is reporting a high so far of 117°, which ties the all-time record. The preliminary monthly average of 91.5° smokes the old June record by a full degree.<br />
<br />
<b>June 30, 4 PM PDT Update:</b> The current temperature of 116° at Las Vegas ties the all-time June record set on June 15, 1940. This is the third consecutive day of 115°+ at Las Vegas.<br />
<br />
Phoenix tied its record for June 30 at 115°.<br />
<br />
<b>June 29, 9 PM Update:</b> More major heat records were set today. Some preliminary highlights:<br />
- The 115° at Las Vegas tied the record for the date. <br />
- Needles, California hit 123°, which set a new all-time June record in a climate history extending back to 1888.<br />
- Kingman, Arizona beat its old June all-time high by 2° in a climate record which began in 1901.<br />
- Salt Lake City had 105° for the second consecutive day. This was a new all-time June record.<br />
<br />
<b>June 29, 10 AM Update:</b> The National Weather Service has provided additional record reports for Needles and Death Valley, California and Kingman, Arizona, included in the table below. <br />
<br />
The 115° at Las Vegas was the first time that level was reached in June since 1994. It was also the hottest June temperature at Needles since 1994. At Kingman, it was the second earliest 110° temperature; the earliest was June 16, 1917. That also ties the all-time June record. <br />
<br />
<b>Original Post:</b><br />
It was historically hot in the desert Southwest today. Over a dozen major National Weather Service climate locations in Arizona, Nevada and interior California tied or broke temperature records for June 28, in some cases by big margins. The highest readings in absolute terms were 118° at Palm Springs, California, which tied its 1979 record, and at Yuma, Arizona. Yuma climate records began nearly 140 years ago, in 1876. The previous record of 116° was tied 3 times, but it was soundly broken by a margin of 2°. At Winnemucca, Nevada the previous record of 101° was set just 3 years ago in a climate history which dates back to 1877, but this was surpassed by an impressive margin of 4°. <br />
<br />
Here's a preliminary summary of today's records (POR indicates first year of period of record):<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tr><td> </td><td> Location </td><td> Record </td><td> Previous </td><td> Date </td><td> POR </td></tr>
<tr><td> AZ </td><td> Flagstaff </td><td> 96 </td><td> 94 </td><td> 1990/1974 </td><td> 1898 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Winslow </td><td> 107 </td><td> 104 </td><td> 1973 </td><td> 1898 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Prescott </td><td> 104 </td><td> 100 </td><td> 1990 </td><td> 1948 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Yuma </td><td> 118 </td><td> 116 </td><td> 1994/1990/1985 </td><td> 1876 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Kingman </td><td> 110 </td><td> 107 </td><td> 1914 </td><td> 1901 </td></tr>
<tr><td> NV </td><td> Elko </td><td> 103 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 1892 </td><td> 1888 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Eureka </td><td> 100 </td><td> 95 </td><td> 2010/2007 </td><td> 1963 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Tonopah </td><td> 101 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> 1954 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Winnemucca </td><td> 105 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 2010 </td><td> 1877 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Las Vegas </td><td> 115 </td><td> 115 </td><td> 1994 </td><td> 1937 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Reno </td><td> 103 </td><td> 100 </td><td> 2010 </td><td> 1888 </td></tr>
<tr><td> CA </td><td> Bishop </td><td> 107 </td><td> 105 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> 1943 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Palm Springs </td><td> 118 </td><td> 118 </td><td> 1979 </td><td> 1893 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Death Valley </td><td> 125 </td><td> 125 </td><td> 1994 </td><td> 1911 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Needles </td><td> 121 </td><td> 119 </td><td> 1994 </td><td> 1888 </td></tr>
</table><br />
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Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-3274444680781612352013-06-26T22:01:00.000-04:002013-06-27T22:50:23.537-04:00New York on Track for Wettest June in 145-Year Climate Record <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMMy7Gyc7YGtz98c8UOmrMpno5G6LlNGvn0rdOKTJs5Hhl4SZoSMevEpqCWkK_n8oFLdH6PCDXdhk8Wq3_UFtV4VHC-yDKT2LIcymKoDX8QjsNyp9YCjIfHfkc_1y-wKx560ip8jDjqxA/s1600/precip.ny.062613.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMMy7Gyc7YGtz98c8UOmrMpno5G6LlNGvn0rdOKTJs5Hhl4SZoSMevEpqCWkK_n8oFLdH6PCDXdhk8Wq3_UFtV4VHC-yDKT2LIcymKoDX8QjsNyp9YCjIfHfkc_1y-wKx560ip8jDjqxA/s400/precip.ny.062613.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEPf6Pq9btuXliiehFETCfl4mM6me6whyyRu8s6dApadntbCgA5yJXHN7WDqg12J7liNndtElOaCUd7u92UdfkzEt3LRCNLIJqR-0a7C1Q7YX0RpFTDgXcqVn0xZAK4chl8JR0vsL3ivs/s1600/qpf.48hr.062613.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEPf6Pq9btuXliiehFETCfl4mM6me6whyyRu8s6dApadntbCgA5yJXHN7WDqg12J7liNndtElOaCUd7u92UdfkzEt3LRCNLIJqR-0a7C1Q7YX0RpFTDgXcqVn0xZAK4chl8JR0vsL3ivs/s400/qpf.48hr.062613.gif" /></a></div><i>Images (click to enlarge): June total rainfall to date for New York and southern New England from National Weather Service (NWS); 48-hour total precipitation forecast through Friday evening, June 28, from WPC/NWS</i><br />
<br />
<b>June 27 (Thursday), 10:30 PM Update:</b> The 0.23" so far tonight brings the monthly total to 10.09", which surpasses the 10.06" in 2009 as the second wettest June on record.<br />
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<b>Original Post:</b><br />
The 0.05" of rain which fell at New York's Central Park in light showers this evening brings the month-to-date total to 9.86". This puts June 2013 firmly in position as the 3rd wettest June in a climate history which extends back to 1869. Less than half an inch now separates the current month from the June record of 10.27" in 2003. With over 1" of rain forecast for Thursday and Friday (June 27-28), the record is well within reach. <br />
<br />
The 3 wettest Junes in New York have now all occurred in the past 11 years. The all-time wettest month was August 2011, when 18.95" fell. <br />
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Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-9127271766620058962013-06-11T17:01:00.001-04:002013-06-11T22:38:00.053-04:00Early Summer Heat Krushes Kansas Records<b>9 PM CDT Update:</b> The preliminary final high temperature at Goodland was 107°, smashing the old record by 7°. Other records were tied or broken in Arizona, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas.<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tr><td> </td><td> Location </td><td> Record </td><td> Previous </td><td> Date </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> AZ </td><td> Winslow </td><td> 99 </td><td> 99 </td><td> 1956/1921/1918 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Douglas </td><td> 105 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 1981/1956 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> NM </td><td> Albuquerque </td><td> 101 </td><td> 101 </td><td> 1981 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Clayton </td><td> 101 </td><td> 99 </td><td> 2010 </td><td> June 10 </td></tr>
<tr><td> WY </td><td> Cheyenne </td><td> 92 </td><td> 91 </td><td> 1956/1893 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> CO </td><td> Colorado Springs </td><td> 97 </td><td> 93 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Pueblo </td><td> 104 </td><td> 100 </td><td> 2001/1956 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Denver </td><td> 100 </td><td> 95 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Burlington </td><td> 107 </td><td> 102 </td><td> 1918 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Yuma </td><td> 106 </td><td> 100 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> Unofficial </td></tr>
<tr><td> NE </td><td> Sidney </td><td> 96 </td><td> 96 </td><td> 1956 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> McCook </td><td> 108 </td><td> 106 </td><td> 1918 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> KS </td><td> Goodland </td><td> 107 </td><td> 100 </td><td> 2001/1953/1952 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Hill City </td><td> 111 </td><td> 106 </td><td> 1953 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Garden City </td><td> 108 </td><td> 102 </td><td> 1953 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Dodge City </td><td> 104 </td><td> 103 </td><td> 1977 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Tribune </td><td> 111 </td><td> 102 </td><td> 2010 </td><td> Unofficial </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Colby </td><td> 107 </td><td> 104 </td><td> 1918 </td><td> Unofficial </td></tr>
</table><br />
<br />
<b>Original post:</b><br />
Triple-digit temperatures are crushing temperature records in western Kansas this afternoon. At Goodland, Kansas, where climate records began in 1895, it was 100° on June 11, 2001, which tied a record previously reached in 1953, 1952, and also in some previous years. Today, the temperature broke that record with 101° at 1 pm CDT, 102° the following hour, 105° the next, and retreated slightly to 104° in the current hour. <br />
<br />
At Garden City, where a new record of 105° was reported at 2 pm (old record 102° in 1953), the thermometer has kept right on soaring to 108° in the current hour.<br />
<br />
More records will be posted as the reports become available.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-45378841611049030172013-06-07T18:01:00.000-04:002013-06-08T09:36:22.472-04:00Andrea Smashes Early-Season Rainfall Records<b>June 8, 10 AM Update:</b> Added Salisbury, Wilmington, Allentown, Islip, Massena, Boston, Providence. Updated totals through midnight.<br />
<br />
<b>10 PM EDT Update:</b> Added Richmond, New Bern, Hartford, Bridgeport, Worcester. Updated totals through 8 pm (10 pm for CT and MA).<br />
<br />
<b>Original post:</b><br />
Heavy rainfall associated with the pre-storm environment and Tropical Storm Andrea itself has been smashing daily rainfall records along the East Coast. At Raleigh-Durham, North Carolina, the unofficial total of 5.14" is the highest so early in the season and the second highest for any day in June for climate records dating back to 1887. Based on National Weather Service preliminary record reports, daily climate reports, and hourly precipitation data, here are the records so far (all for June 7 unless otherwise noted). The rain is continuing in most locations.<br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tr><td> </td><td> Location </td><td> Record </td><td> Previous </td><td> Date </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> NC </td><td> Fayetteville </td><td> 2.36 </td><td> 1.78 </td><td> 1930 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Raleigh/Durham </td><td> 5.14 </td><td> 1.24 </td><td> 1930 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> New Bern </td><td> 1.51 </td><td> 1.20 </td><td> 2003 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> VA </td><td> Lynchburg </td><td> 3.38 </td><td> 3.31 </td><td> 1989 </td><td> 6-Jun </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Roanoke </td><td> 1.77 </td><td> 1.15 </td><td> 1934 </td><td> 6-Jun </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Blacksburg </td><td> 2.70 </td><td> 1.09 </td><td> 1961 </td><td> 6-Jun </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Richmond </td><td> 2.67 </td><td> 1.68 </td><td> 1913 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> MD </td><td> Salisbury </td><td> 1.58 </td><td> 1.43 </td><td> 1913 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> DE </td><td> Wilmington </td><td> 3.36 </td><td> 1.78 </td><td> 1916 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> NJ </td><td> Newark </td><td> 3.71 </td><td> 1.11 </td><td> 1931 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Trenton </td><td> 3.51 </td><td> 1.60 </td><td> 1989 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> PA </td><td> Philadelphia </td><td> 3.50 </td><td> 1.79 </td><td> 1904 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Allentown </td><td> 1.82 </td><td> 1.19 </td><td> 1948 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> NY </td><td> Kennedy Airport </td><td> 4.01 </td><td> 1.18 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> LaGuardia Airport </td><td> 3.33 </td><td> 1.08 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Islip </td><td> 4.15 </td><td> 1.27 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Syracuse </td><td> 2.39 </td><td> 1.20 </td><td> 2010 </td><td> 6-Jun </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> NYC/Central Park </td><td> 4.16 </td><td> 1.95 </td><td> 1918 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Massena </td><td> 0.72 </td><td> 0.43 </td><td> 1984 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> CT </td><td> Hartford </td><td> 2.53 </td><td> 1.54 </td><td> 1913 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Bridgeport </td><td> 4.43 </td><td> 1.36 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> MA </td><td> Worcester </td><td> 2.68 </td><td> 1.75 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> Boston </td><td> 3.07 </td><td> 2.89 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> RI </td><td> Providence </td><td> 3.23 </td><td> 3.08 </td><td> 2006 </td><td> </td></tr>
</table>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-13335295372183718422013-05-16T17:19:00.000-04:002013-05-16T17:19:22.825-04:00Triple-Digit Temperatures Crush Northern Plains/Midwest Heat Records; All-Time May Record at Sioux City<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiov6EH6dqQC_y3pAK8zF7AgLIhM6SOSujIQ-B7Q0MM4WwOElVLjvfepK5cuymcFmRJJnO9kBb12pzb4ipRuNo7kpbbBKaIeZI1HJvefR0ct1C-U1Jo-17Kd3PyoKMtj6EKb0GVgNEy4Zc/s1600/temp_con_hi.051413.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiov6EH6dqQC_y3pAK8zF7AgLIhM6SOSujIQ-B7Q0MM4WwOElVLjvfepK5cuymcFmRJJnO9kBb12pzb4ipRuNo7kpbbBKaIeZI1HJvefR0ct1C-U1Jo-17Kd3PyoKMtj6EKb0GVgNEy4Zc/s1200/temp_con_hi.051413.gif" /></a><br />
<i>Image (click to enlarge): U.S. daily high temperatures for May 14, 2013, from Unisys</i><br />
<br />
While Mid Atlantic residents were complaining about the unseasonable cold temperatures on Tuesday, heat records were being crushed in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest. As shown in the table below, triple-digit readings smashed long-standing May 14 daily records, with a margin as much as 7° at Norfolk, Nebraska. At Sioux City, Iowa, the 106° high also broke the all-time May maximum temperature record. Sioux City climate records date back to 1889. At both Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska, it was the earliest 100° temperature on record, surpassing the previous records of 5/29/1934 and 5/24/1967, respectively. <br />
<br />
<table border="1"><tr><td> </td><td> Location </td><td> Record </td><td> Previous </td><td> Date </td><td> Earliest 100 </td></tr>
<tr><td> IA </td><td> CEDAR RAPIDS </td><td> 94 </td><td> 93 </td><td> 5/14/1932 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> MASON CITY </td><td> 99 </td><td> 92 </td><td> 5/14/1998 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> WATERLOO </td><td> 96 </td><td> 94 </td><td> 5/14/1932 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> DES MOINES </td><td> 94 </td><td> 93 </td><td> 5/14/1988 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> MN </td><td> ALEXANDRIA </td><td> 93 </td><td> 92 </td><td> 5/14/2001 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> MANKATO </td><td> 100 </td><td> 94 </td><td> 5/14/1954 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> MINNEAPOLIS/ST PAUL </td><td> 98 </td><td> 95 </td><td> 5/14/1932 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> ST CLOUD </td><td> 95 </td><td> 93 </td><td> 5/14/1932 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> ROCHESTER </td><td> 97 </td><td> 94 </td><td> 5/14/2007 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> NE </td><td> OMAHA </td><td> 101 </td><td> 96 </td><td> 5/14/1915 </td><td> 5/29/1934 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> NORFOLK </td><td> 103 </td><td> 96 </td><td> 5/14/1941 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> LINCOLN </td><td> 100 </td><td> 96 </td><td> 5/14/1915 </td><td> 5/24/1967 </td></tr>
<tr><td> </td><td> NORTH PLATTE </td><td> 97 </td><td> 95 </td><td> 5/14/1948 </td><td> </td></tr>
<tr><td> SD </td><td> MITCHELL </td><td> 93 </td><td> 92 </td><td> 5/14/1932 </td><td> </td></tr>
</table><br />
The map below, from NOAA/ESRL, shows the temperature departures from average (°C) for the U.S. It shows that nearly all of the country was at least 2°C above or below average, but the positive departures significantly outweighed the negative, both in area and magnitude.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIKrwoVOKCSc4lgP5NBAiSpG7fzyv-X5dBW05cdz7Nz7AGDTFVt1o7ejfT4cm7-7Trrwn8AxzCFSP5TQx8yct4y6Ujbyn4TseayWhpXyKmLi7k42El3aEY1jGHVhCDYAl3FLmlSp9uho/s1600/temp.us.051413.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVIKrwoVOKCSc4lgP5NBAiSpG7fzyv-X5dBW05cdz7Nz7AGDTFVt1o7ejfT4cm7-7Trrwn8AxzCFSP5TQx8yct4y6Ujbyn4TseayWhpXyKmLi7k42El3aEY1jGHVhCDYAl3FLmlSp9uho/s1200/temp.us.051413.gif" /></a> <br />
<br />
The temperature extremes were a reflection of a strongly anomalous circulation pattern shown in the map below. A very strong ridge of high pressure extended from the eastern Pacific to the Great Lakes at the 500 mb level (near the middle of the atmosphere), while a deep low pressure area was located off the Mid Atlantic coast.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXghPLzrBWpJL-_gW0Jg4BGBhdM98rfFk-xDIdkdGp2L8LGs1GOLUfJ3gtvFsPVBqhRnFxh9lZvcd4UjQZI3Qm3Q6DpyuXu5ulBVnpsVhoanxKw0wbJIw1AY5eWn9wu2rGWLq-hPD1vOA/s1600/500mb.051413.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXghPLzrBWpJL-_gW0Jg4BGBhdM98rfFk-xDIdkdGp2L8LGs1GOLUfJ3gtvFsPVBqhRnFxh9lZvcd4UjQZI3Qm3Q6DpyuXu5ulBVnpsVhoanxKw0wbJIw1AY5eWn9wu2rGWLq-hPD1vOA/s1200/500mb.051413.gif" /></a><br />
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The National Weather Service report for the record at Sioux City:<pre>AT 135 PM THE TEMPERATURE REACHED 106 DEGREES AT THE SIOUX CITY
GATEWAY AIRPORT ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THIS DATE AND A NEW RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH OF MAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WAS 97 DEGREES SET IN
2001 AND THE PREVIOUS RECORD MONTHLY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY WAS
105 DEGREES SET ON MAY 30, 1934.
THE TOP TEN HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOR MONTH OF MAY FROM 1889 TO 2013
DEGREES DATE
1. 105 5/30/1934
2. 103 5/29/1934
3. 102 5/25/1967
4. 102 5/31/1934
5. 101 5/15/2001
6. 100 5/06/1934
7. 99 5/19/1934
8. 99 5/18/1934
9. 98 5/28/2006
10. 98 5/24/1939 </pre>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-87071029363443479522013-05-07T17:57:00.000-04:002013-05-07T17:57:23.711-04:00Weather Whiplash: U.S. Cold Records Crush Heat Records 6.5 to 1 in April<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhumuP6ak0yB93wltgCvfGp8kdirb97bwirtSFPKms2z2dUjtT_g1eJx61gquBmmLaqs6Ap0MeEG1KMFuCBddxXfc76SJVvEn-2_mmhgXRVb1iqcfx8rN9j_iELfOi-Ep8A-D50tD-YYz0/s1600/temp.records.0413.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhumuP6ak0yB93wltgCvfGp8kdirb97bwirtSFPKms2z2dUjtT_g1eJx61gquBmmLaqs6Ap0MeEG1KMFuCBddxXfc76SJVvEn-2_mmhgXRVb1iqcfx8rN9j_iELfOi-Ep8A-D50tD-YYz0/s1600/temp.records.0413.jpg" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOj3m_Q0N0GN-uFPfkwE4QKM7-StRLVIKZNaQJ6IyyU6-gs2fWRztgVAZZCI-g9VN-f12QAw3sdHKd5AfmtlLeBFPiI_kHDKp3zjv3nLt1ei_On-QzV6OzDTKHURLq8q_zrHK_AV6j5u0/s1600/temp.records.cumulative.0413.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOj3m_Q0N0GN-uFPfkwE4QKM7-StRLVIKZNaQJ6IyyU6-gs2fWRztgVAZZCI-g9VN-f12QAw3sdHKd5AfmtlLeBFPiI_kHDKp3zjv3nLt1ei_On-QzV6OzDTKHURLq8q_zrHK_AV6j5u0/s320/temp.records.cumulative.0413.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixBukKJ8Ca3c3p3GMP1Hx1xfwud-O-btD1BGs1coyCrtmjhkYSUiQWjgUhvU1NsVFPAokM67keQCoFWxkhaG7vGK-7FBvmjHTQqcqmXAjWeOsEAsZx98AiMHd2CMotX_gvorhHcraTFQI/s1600/temp.us.apr13.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEixBukKJ8Ca3c3p3GMP1Hx1xfwud-O-btD1BGs1coyCrtmjhkYSUiQWjgUhvU1NsVFPAokM67keQCoFWxkhaG7vGK-7FBvmjHTQqcqmXAjWeOsEAsZx98AiMHd2CMotX_gvorhHcraTFQI/s320/temp.us.apr13.gif" /></a><br />
One year after <a href="http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2012/04/march-heat-records-crush-cold-records.html">heat records smashed cold records</a> by a ratio of over 35 to 1, preliminary data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) show that new daily low temperature records in the U.S. outnumbered high temperature records by 6.5 to 1 in April. This was the largest monthly excess of cold records so far this decade. It was also the first time since at least February 2010 that more than 2 consecutive months have had more cold records than heat records.<br />
<br />
For the spring season to date (March-April), cold records have exceeded heat records by a ratio of 4 to 1, and for 2013 to date, the ratio is 1.6 to 1. On the other hand, for the 12 consecutive months ending in April, heat records continue to outpace cold records by a ratio of 1.8 to 1. Cumulatively, the ratio of heat records to cold records is 2.8 to 1 since January 2010, well above the roughly 2 to 1 in previous decades. As the chart shows, the 2600 cold records in April barely made a dent in the cumulative excess of 36000 heat records since the beginning of the decade.<br />
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Preliminary data from NOAA/ESRL show that the coldest temperatures relative to average were in the North Central portion of the U.S. in April. The Pacific Coast states, however, were warmer than average, and near to above average temperatures prevailed over most of the eastern third of the country.<br />
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<br />
Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-47116792739544789992013-04-08T12:37:00.000-04:002013-04-08T17:41:33.980-04:00Washington Has Latest Occurrence of First 75° Temperature*<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXB6S2lREofrFxe1qtSLpLOzI7Oxf83DmTRpZBdW5nE10w1JoJpXQI9dtbYJQzElW6NyRAnuSpvFmTvkMIZRjfzvWYGctDhTZsoNv8K8JDYC-XJpMJ7h5-QUnqPGRRHL7jmn9GzUubkZ8/s1600/temp.dca.75plus.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXB6S2lREofrFxe1qtSLpLOzI7Oxf83DmTRpZBdW5nE10w1JoJpXQI9dtbYJQzElW6NyRAnuSpvFmTvkMIZRjfzvWYGctDhTZsoNv8K8JDYC-XJpMJ7h5-QUnqPGRRHL7jmn9GzUubkZ8/s1600/temp.dca.75plus.jpg" /></a><br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;">* since 2001</span><br />
<br />
<b>5:30 PM Update:</b> The preliminary high for the day was 79° at 3 pm EDT.<br />
<br />
<b>Original Post:</b><br />
With a noon temperature of 70°, Washington is well on its way to the first 75° or higher temperature of the year by this afternoon, or at least by tomorrow. This will be the latest occurrence of the first 75° temperature . . . since 2001, when this temperature was reached on April 9. The latest occurrence on record at the current observation location was on April 26, 1984. The average date for the first 75° temperature since 1930 is March 16.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-69211867753585941682013-04-01T01:55:00.000-04:002013-04-01T10:34:47.044-04:00Washington Fails to Reach 65° in March, First Time Since 1958 <a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSPOwU-hdS_SVnHl7g4SaERSnKHC7Ty2rpTRrZOPcOzXq4OzuSTKnU5Awxkh7fQGDBovVexAHkTPLpXS6ZA0Vdaf4PC-q26QIvteq4pnbqW-ShGI1US5Du1MmEJQzN78HeEF0lkeMhvYw/s1600/temp.dca.mar.max.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSPOwU-hdS_SVnHl7g4SaERSnKHC7Ty2rpTRrZOPcOzXq4OzuSTKnU5Awxkh7fQGDBovVexAHkTPLpXS6ZA0Vdaf4PC-q26QIvteq4pnbqW-ShGI1US5Du1MmEJQzN78HeEF0lkeMhvYw/s1600/temp.dca.mar.max.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
March 2013 has closed out the record books with a monthly high temperature in Washington of 63°. This is the coldest high for March since the 58° in 1958. It's only the second time Washington has failed to reach 65° in March since the 60° high in 1931.<br />
<br />
The unofficial monthly average of 43.8°, however, was only 3.0° below normal, making this the 55th coldest March since temperature records began in 1871.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-31605238565871292862013-03-25T17:02:00.000-04:002013-03-25T17:23:43.018-04:00Snowbound Sunday in Springfield: All-Time Daily Snowfall Record; St. Louis Also Sets March Record<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQOGjtU3Fo089qHx8hHUDEGacLvnCkWQVd1gwLD_1GTxjN_FcoDWjVNM22_utoj6h9LI2uPm7oyI-DEYCLs4La0QFyUOwKc9ze53Y3N6f4LomuGTKCrTQssmf1dkOCC10-Ym60prrqYfE/s320/snow.springfield.mar24snow(1).png" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="center" width=550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQOGjtU3Fo089qHx8hHUDEGacLvnCkWQVd1gwLD_1GTxjN_FcoDWjVNM22_utoj6h9LI2uPm7oyI-DEYCLs4La0QFyUOwKc9ze53Y3N6f4LomuGTKCrTQssmf1dkOCC10-Ym60prrqYfE/s1600/snow.springfield.mar24snow(1).png" /></a><br />
<br />
The National Weather Service reports that Springfield, Illinois set a daily snowfall record on March 24: <pre>A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 17 INCHES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL ON
SUNDAY MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.4 INCHES SET IN 1947. </pre>According to NWS data, this would also be an all-time daily snowfall record at Springfield:<br />
<br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="2"><caption><font face="Arial" color="#0000FF"><strong>MOST SNOW IN 24 HOURS</strong></font></caption>
<tr> <th><font face="Arial">Rank</font></th> <th><font face="Arial">Amount</font></th> <th><font face="Arial">Date</font></th> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">1</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">15.0 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Feb. 28, 1900</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">2</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">13.3 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Jan. 1-2, 1999</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">3</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">12.6 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Jan. 30-31, 1914</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">4</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">11.3 inches </font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2008 </font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">5</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">11.2 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Feb. 12-13, 2007</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">6</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">10.9 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Dec. 19, 1973</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">7</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">10.7 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Feb. 12, 1894</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">8</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">10.5 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Dec. 24, 1915</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">9</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">10.3 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">Feb. 23-24, 1965</font></td> </tr>
<tr> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">10</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">9.4 inches</font></td> <td align="center"><font face="Arial">March 19-20, 1906</font></td> </tr>
</table><br />
A daily snowfall record was also set at Peoria and Lincoln: <pre>A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES WAS SET AT PEORIA IL ON SUNDAY
MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.7 INCHES SET IN 1933.
A DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL OF 10.8 INCHES WAS SET AT LINCOLN IL ON
SUNDAY MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4 INCHES SET IN
1947. </pre>According to NWS records, this is also an all-time March daily record for Lincoln, exceeding the 7.5" on March 16, 1960.<br />
<br />
The axis of heaviest snow also extended westward to St. Louis, where it was the heaviest daily snowfall for March and the second heaviest for any calendar day. From the NWS: <pre>THE LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WHICH BROUGHT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE HIGHEST
CALENDAR DAY MARCH SNOWFALL. THIS WAS ALSO THE SECOND HIGHEST
CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL EVER...AND THE SIXTH GREATEST SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR ST LOUIS.
HERE ARE THE TOP TEN LISTS (PLEASE NOTE THAT OFFICIAL SNOWFALL
RECORDS FOR ST LOUIS GO BACK TO 1891)...
TOP TEN MARCH CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL
(MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT)
1. *12.4 INCHES 3/24/2013
2. 12.1 INCHES 3/24/1912
3. 10.0 INCHES 3/4/2008...3/6/1989...3/9/1958
6. 9.1 INCHES 3/19/1906
7. 8.6 INCHES 3/20/1924
8. 8.3 INCHES 3/26/1913
9. 7.8 INCHES 3/2/1912
10. 7.3 INCHES 3/23/1974
TOP TEN SNOWFALL CALENDAR DAYS
(MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT)
1. 12.8 INCHES 2/26/1906
2. *12.4 INCHES 3/24/2013
3. 12.1 INCHES 3/24/1912
4. 12.0 INCHES 12/19/1973
5. 11.7 INCHES 2/13/1914
6. 11.3 INCHES 2/16/1910
7. 11.2 INCHES 1/31/1958
8. 11.0 INCHES 1/11/1909
9. 10.9 INCHES 1/16/1978
10 10.5 INCHES 12/30/1973
TOP TEN SNOWFALL EVENTS
(ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY SPANNING CALENDAR DAYS)
1. 15.6 INCHES 2/20-21/1912
2. 13.9 INCHES 1/30-31/1982
3. 13.3 INCHES 2/16-17/1910
4. 13.0 INCHES 2/12-13/1914
5. 12.8 INCHES 2/26/1906
6. *12.6 INCHES 3/24-25/2013 (7AM-7AM CDT)
7. 12.5 INCHES 1/16-17/1978
8. 12.1 INCHES 3/24/1912
9. 12.0 INCHES 12/19/1973
10. 12.0 INCHES 1/11-12/1909 </pre>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-35544078674596613112013-03-21T21:55:00.002-04:002013-03-21T21:56:33.502-04:00Think It Was Cold Today, DC? Not Your Great-Great Grandfather's March of the Penguins<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga7zrWWyQ2w80MtMvntLA5IDxcyR8Ixc33l1RSGHqt7EjK-5aNHQmRoEqoXm2LNt7XxE_PxuizhVR5kxdXPfh8J2IUd2hcb1yQjtkM4QMUuj9dYTd8ubYquU9sYL9Na-8R3cuBBF6u7KE/s1600/dca.march.lohi.jpg" imageanchor="1" align="center"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga7zrWWyQ2w80MtMvntLA5IDxcyR8Ixc33l1RSGHqt7EjK-5aNHQmRoEqoXm2LNt7XxE_PxuizhVR5kxdXPfh8J2IUd2hcb1yQjtkM4QMUuj9dYTd8ubYquU9sYL9Na-8R3cuBBF6u7KE/s1600/dca.march.lohi.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
Denizens of the DMV were complaining about the early-spring cold this March 21, but the chill was nowhere near the historical extremes for this date or any other date through the end of the month. Although the high for the day of 42° was set shortly after midnight, the daytime temperatures were mostly in the 30s. On the other hand, the afternoon high did reach 41°. This was well below the historical average of 58° in Washington, DC, but it was also a full 10° above the coldest high temperature for the date, which was set in 1885. In fact, it would not be near any coldest high for the remainder of March. <br />
<br />
The CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data shows that all but 1 of the 13 record coldest high temperatures from March 19-31 were set over 100 years ago. The one exception was 73 years ago, on 03/25/1940.<br />
Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-4232771334149561832013-03-06T17:39:00.002-05:002013-03-06T17:39:29.369-05:00Washington March Snow: Rare Event Becoming Rarer?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYGLjUK_XFqty5KT2V4ByT3_HwQ5FqdO6QIgc8Cv5ApCh36uBI5xJedxtqN_PB6BqHnH0poJ1Bba2-5hyraAkG52JH-_Ar2RPaExrtOVU7bymEHR15jK1VkDt6RJrjhLDbhCgwaz1btss/s1600/march.snow.intervals.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="center" width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYGLjUK_XFqty5KT2V4ByT3_HwQ5FqdO6QIgc8Cv5ApCh36uBI5xJedxtqN_PB6BqHnH0poJ1Bba2-5hyraAkG52JH-_Ar2RPaExrtOVU7bymEHR15jK1VkDt6RJrjhLDbhCgwaz1btss/s1600/march.snow.intervals.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
The climatological average for March snowfall in Washington is just 1.3", so significant snowfalls in the first month of meteorological spring are rare. With the bust of the current "Snowquester", it's likely that 2013 will add to a string of nearly snowless Marches extending back to 2009, when a total of 5.5" was recorded.<br />
<br />
In the early days of official snowfall records, which began in Washington in 1888, March snow was relatively common. In fact, the first 6 years in the climate record had measurable March snow; 3 of those were over 10". <br />
<br />
The chart shows on the horizontal axis all of the years with 4" or more of total snowfall in March. The vertical axis is the number of years since the previous occurrence of 4"+. For example, if 4" occurred in consecutive years, the interval would be shown as 1. For the first several decades, the interval between significant March snows never exceeded 4 years, but in 1923 it reached 9. The interval reached double digits for the first time in 1956, when it was 13. It was 13 again in 1993, and 10 in 2009, which ended a March snow dry spell that began after 1999. <br />
<br />
Unless this month has a miraculous snowfall recovery, the current March snow drought will be 4 years and counting.<br />
Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-74427997703127331882013-02-25T12:18:00.001-05:002013-02-26T21:23:41.211-05:00Blizzard Threatens Texas All-Time Snowfall Records<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhesf6w7MKBBKto6E-O1hFPb1ubc61pd7BoX-pP-X58N6vTvBS14rnMwJv1gkMDm0LsBlMCP1jqwXbojBCTk6kmECy6gJAkGAeOEh995K8zlvx8rFdU9Y3zmbC291Ims4A44acvvVtow0c/s1600/ama.022513.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="center" "width=550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhesf6w7MKBBKto6E-O1hFPb1ubc61pd7BoX-pP-X58N6vTvBS14rnMwJv1gkMDm0LsBlMCP1jqwXbojBCTk6kmECy6gJAkGAeOEh995K8zlvx8rFdU9Y3zmbC291Ims4A44acvvVtow0c/s320/ama.022513.jpg" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFlhy5I5r0mAwyLSMJ_yF7VtPHy9YS8rrwnekG_csayvp2IL2OI5XZcpgPK3bdWiycTQTNEsn_dchnI1W3rv8O0xjuLXbBMbZGJ91b4S4eST91hNPPQYGKuhdCSpQzBD05zeDWgX2QuHE/s1600/ama.snow.final.022613.jpg" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="center" "width=550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFlhy5I5r0mAwyLSMJ_yF7VtPHy9YS8rrwnekG_csayvp2IL2OI5XZcpgPK3bdWiycTQTNEsn_dchnI1W3rv8O0xjuLXbBMbZGJ91b4S4eST91hNPPQYGKuhdCSpQzBD05zeDWgX2QuHE/s320/ama.snow.final.022613.jpg" /></a><br />
<br />
<b>8 PM CST February 26 Update:</b> Map updated with final totals.<br />
<br />
<b>8 PM CST Update:</b> The Amarillo snow total of 19" is the third heaviest for any storm on record:<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>19 inches of snow at NWS <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23Amarillo">#Amarillo</a>. 2nd most snow in a calendar day and 3rd most for any event. <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23phwx">#phwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23amablizzard">#amablizzard</a></p>— NWS Amarillo (@NWSAmarillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSAmarillo/status/306206878608785408">February 26, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><br />
<b>4 PM CST Update:</b> Here are some unofficial snowfall reports from the National Weather Service for the Texas panhandle: <pre>Location Snowfall Source
7 ENE Amarillo TX 17 nws office
Fritch TX 16 trained spotter
Pampa TX 15 co-op observer
6 SE Booker TX 14 trained spotter
Fritch TX 14 trained spotter
White Deer TX 14 public
Booker TX 14 emergency mngr
Fritch TX 13 public
3 S Darrouzett TX 12.5 trained spotter
Dumas TX 12 law enforcement
Bushland TX 12 public
6 SW Amarillo TX 12 trained spotter </pre><b>Original Post:</b><br />
The ongoing blizzard in the Texas panhandle is threatening to break some all-time Texas snowfall records. These are the current snowfall records at Amarillo, from the National Weather Service:<br />
<br />
Max for <b>24 hours</b>: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934<br />
Max for a <b>single storm</b>: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934<br />
Max for <b>one month</b>: 28.7 inches in February 1903<br />
Max measured <b>snow depth</b>: 17.0 inches on February 26, 1903<br />
Max for a <b>season</b>: 50.9 inches in 1918-19<br />
<br />
The NWS at Amarillo reports: <pre>GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. THE NWS OFFICE NOW HAS OVER 13 INCHES
ON THE GROUND WITH 3-4 FOOT DRIFTS AND A MAX GUST TO 58 MPH. THE SE
TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN WITH SNOW AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THESE AREAS
MIGHT END UP WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 8 INCH SIDE THAN THE 14 INCH
SIDE OF THEIR RANGE. AT THE END OF THE DAY...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ALONG A PALO DURO CANYON TO AMARILLO TO
STINNETT TO PERRYTON LINE.
SOME RECORDS SEEM TO BE IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION TODAY. THE FIRST IS
AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT AMARILLO OF 20.6 INCHES FROM
MARCH 25-26 1934. WE WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE OR SURPASS THIS
NUMBER BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE OTHER IS THE ALL-TIME STATE OF TEXAS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF
25 INCHES IN FOLLETT SET MARCH 28 2009. SOMEWHERE IN THE
PERRYTON/STINNETT/BORGER/AMARILLO AREA COULD APPROACH THIS VALUE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. </pre>Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4383109810185861842.post-78077731733756351042013-02-24T18:26:00.000-05:002013-02-24T18:56:04.312-05:00Record Low Mid-Atmospheric Pressure Predicted for Midwest Blizzard<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2z-uBc7NVlvh62toFx0-yW7DW37Rw2IXCtdG1L48VfVKsUo9eaLrmaHimrb1Fw9gtAVEQL4F-IPz1_Qh7V6YfG6O93S7IJdSROCJOeMqcw0elKVdD7lQJOEgpaYsSsOpg4XcHZVDM4_o/s1600/gfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.12z.022413.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="center"
width="550" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2z-uBc7NVlvh62toFx0-yW7DW37Rw2IXCtdG1L48VfVKsUo9eaLrmaHimrb1Fw9gtAVEQL4F-IPz1_Qh7V6YfG6O93S7IJdSROCJOeMqcw0elKVdD7lQJOEgpaYsSsOpg4XcHZVDM4_o/s1600/gfs_namer_048_500_vort_ht.12z.022413.gif" /></a><br />
The maximum intensity for the developing Midwest blizzard is nearly 2 days away, but a major forecast model is predicting mid-atmospheric pressures at least as low as any observed during February in the region since systematic upper-air observations began in 1948. Based on data from this morning, the NOAA/NCEP GFS model is predicting super-low pressures by Tuesday morning near the middle of the atmosphere above the storm. The map above shows the predicted height (meters) of the level at which the pressure is 500 mb, or roughly half the value at the surface. The small circle near the Missouri-Arkansas border is labeled 528, or 5280 meters (approximately 3 miles). The values inside the circle would be even lower. According to historical data from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, the 500 mb height has never been as low as 5280 meters in that region since 1948. Here is a list of the top 10 lowest observations in February at latitude 35 N, longitude 90 W: <pre>Date Meters
1991,2,15, 5287
1964,2,19, 5314
1978,2,21, 5318
1984,2,28, 5323
1965,2,25, 5334
1970,2, 3, 5345
1971,2, 9, 5357
2010,2,15, 5357
1958,2, 2, 5361
1984,2, 5, 5361 </pre><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH0gu08NgjvQRHAe5fYa_GUbdgXuzv64-COBruCSVLFkT2cw7qAO0h9W3T_XB-d7WFyY0FJfOyZkAuMcAF28TZL1AQnpRLdda8XD3edeCu-0WK3_vvKAl4eo_eqhPVd1LbZlEE9Jh_HC0/s1600/500nanom_f048_usbg.00z.022413.gif" imageanchor="1" ><img border="0" align="right" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH0gu08NgjvQRHAe5fYa_GUbdgXuzv64-COBruCSVLFkT2cw7qAO0h9W3T_XB-d7WFyY0FJfOyZkAuMcAF28TZL1AQnpRLdda8XD3edeCu-0WK3_vvKAl4eo_eqhPVd1LbZlEE9Jh_HC0/s320/500nanom_f048_usbg.00z.022413.gif" /></a><br />
Looked at another way, the composite forecast from an ensemble of GFS forecast runs made from last night's data indicates that the 500 mb height departure from the long-term average will be as much as 5 standard deviations by Monday night (chart to the right, click to enlarge). For a purely randomly distributed event, a negative departure from average of 4.5 standard deviations would occur only 3 times in a million.Steve Scolnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11887989345192863494noreply@blogger.com0