Fizzled Tropical Prospects: The Atlantic Low
April 21, 2 PM Update: As of 2 pm EDT, the National Hurricane Center has lowered the chances for tropical development from this system to 10%.
Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters agrees that the likelihood of development is low.
Nearly 6 weeks before the traditional June 1 opening of tropical season in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center this afternoon issued a "Special Tropical Weather Outlook" for a low pressure area northeast of Puerto Rico:
A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUANThe NASA visible satellite image (click to enlarge) shows the storm at 17:45 UTC (1:45 pm EDT) today. The center of circulation is west of the largest area of clouds.
PUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NEAR ITS CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND
FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT02 KNHC. ANOTHER SPECIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY...
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
There has only been one named storm (or equivalent in the pre-naming era) in April since Atlantic tropical cyclone records began in 1851. That was Ana, which formed on April 18, 2003. There was one tropical cyclone in February 1952 and one in March 1908.