Felicia Approaches Hawaii

Image (click to enlarge): Tropical Storm Felicia forecast track from Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

5 pm HST Update: Felicia has weakened slightly to maximum winds of 40 mph, and movement is to the west at 10 mph from a position about 210 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii and 375 miles east of Honolulu.

Original post:
Tropical Storm Felicia, with maximum winds now down to 45 mph, continues on a track toward Hawaii. At 11 am HST, the storm was moving westward at 12 mph. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center reports the following storm watches:

 AT 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG 
ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR OAHU AND FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE 
ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...LANAI...AND MOLOKAI. A TROPICAL 
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 

The storm is expected to reach the islands on Tuesday as a tropical depression or possibly a weak tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Felicia Continues Toward Hawaii

After weakening to a tropical storm over the weekend, Felicia has shown little change in strength Sunday afternoon. At 5 pm HST, the storm was moving westward at 14 mph; maximum winds were near 50 mph. The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended to the island of Oahu:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
...FOR ALL OF MAUI COUNTY...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...KAHOOLAWE...
LANAI...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU. 

REGARDLESS OF THE STRENGTH OF FELICIA WHEN IT REACHES THE HAWAIIAN 
ISLANDS...HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR AND FLASH 
FLOODING REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
 
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...21.2N 148.4W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

Felicia Continues to Weaken in Central Pacific, On Track for Hawaii

Images (click to enlarge): Hurricane Felicia visible satellite image from Weather Underground; Track forecast from National Hurricane Center

11 am HST Update: The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu reports that aircraft reconnaissance data indicate a slight weakening of maximum winds to 85 mph. Movement is still westward at 15 mph from a position 845 miles east of Hilo or 1025 miles east of Honolulu. A Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of Hawaii later today or tonight.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...19.8N 142.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB 

Original post:
After weakening to Category 2 on Friday, Hurricane Felicia has continued weakening to Category 1 by Saturday morning. At 8 am PDT, the storm had maximum winds of 90 mph as it moved westward at 15 mph from a position 930 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. The current track is expected to continue for the next several days along with gradual weakening.

Interests in Hawaii are advised to monitor the progress of the storm. The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a flood potential outlook for the state:

THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INDICATES
THAT HURRICANE FELICIA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OR
DEPRESSION NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. REGARDLESS OF ITS
INTENSITY...FELICIA COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. RAIN BANDS MAY REACH THE BIG ISLAND
EARLY ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY SPREADING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY. 

The Honolulu Advertiser and Star-Bulletin report that sales of emergency supplies have been brisk across the state, and government officials are preparing plans to deal with possible storm impacts.

Category 4 Hurricane on Track to Hawaii Major Weakening Expected Before Possible Landfall

8 pm PDT Update: Felicia remains at 135 mph at 8 pm. Movement is toward the west-northwest at 12 mph.

PM Update: As of 2 pm PDT, Felicia has weakened slightly to 135 mph. The storm is moving northwest at 10 mph from a position a little under 1500 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.

Original post:
Despite the slow start to the Atlantic tropical season, the Eastern Pacific has now had 6 named storms. The latest, Hurricane Felicia, has reached major status at Category 4, with maximum winds of 140 mph. Its westward track is likely to bring it to the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands, but it's likely to undergo serious weakening on the way because of several factors:

• cooler water temperatures
• increased wind shear in the form of strong westerly winds aloft
• drier air

The latest advisory calls for the storm to begin weakening later today. As weakening continues in the next several days, it is forecast to approach Hawaii as a weak tropical storm or tropical depression. The current wind speed outlook calls for a 5-10% chance of tropical storm force winds reaching the Big Island within the next 5 days. CNN quotes Richard Knabb, deputy director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center: "If anything, it will be a rain-making system over the (Hawaiian) islands."

Images (click to enlarge): Hurricane Felicia infrared satellite image from Weather Underground and forecast track from National Hurricane Center