Thursday, August 30, 2007

Sliding Toward September

In this post: Tonight and Tomorrow | Tropical Topics | Upcoming Meeting


Sunny, moderately muggy. Following the warm streak for the first half of the month and the coolness last week, temperatures are sliding toward September very near seasonable averages for the highs and a little above average for the lows; overall the month is 2.2° above normal. By 5pm, readings were in the low and mid 80s throughout the region. Humidity is moderate, with dewpoints in the mid 60s.

Ahead of a cold front through central Pennsylvania and West Virginia, scattered showers and thunderstorms have broken out, mostly through northern West Virginia. Some storms could still develop east of the mountains through this evening, but the probability is only about 20%. chart from NWS data, photo © Kevin Ambrose

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, warm, seasonably humid, slight chance of showers. There is a 20% chance of showers or thunderstorms through this evening. Lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70°. Tomorrow will be sunny and warm with highs 84-87° and a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.

For the outlook through a nice-looking holiday weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll on down to Josh's post below.

Tropical Topics

The tropics remain relatively quiet, although the tropical wave now about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands still has the potential to become tropically depressed in the next couple of days.

A second wave about 250 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has "minimal" shower activity, and any development is expected to be slow.

Upcoming Meeting

Now that Jason is retired as president of the local chapter of the American Meteorological Society (thanks for your outstanding service, Jason), there is not even the appearance of a conflict of interest in promoting meetings of the DC-AMS. The first meeting of the new season on September 26 features Chris Mooney, author of "Storm World". The meeting is free and open to the public, but RSVP is required. Details will be posted soon on the DC-AMS website.

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

Not Bad for August


Partly sunny, moderately muggy. Morning clouds and a slight easterly component to a mostly southerly wind have kept temperatures a degree or 2 cooler this afternoon in the metro area. Readings at mid afternoon were mainly in the low and mid 80s; while Dulles reached 85°, National has been hanging in at 83°. Culpeper was the warm spot in the region at 88°, while some 90s were observed in southern Virginia. Easterly winds kept Ocean City at 75°.

Humidity is seasonable, with dewpoints very near the long-term August average of 66°. The nearest precipitation on radar is in the form of very widely scattered showers in the mountains of far southwestern Virginia.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, warm, seasonably humid. Lows tonight will be very similar to last night under hazy, variably cloudy skies: low 70s to near 70° in the urbosphere and some upper 60s in the sub-urbosphere. Depending on how early the clouds burn off tomorrow, high temperatures should be a couple of degrees warmer tomorrow, 85-90°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the holiday weekend, scroll on down to Dan's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Depression 10-E in the Eastern Pacific, but the Atlantic is still relatively quiet. The disorganized area of storms off the Carolina coast still has the possibility for development as it drifts southward in the next couple of days. An Air Force flight is tentatively scheduled for tomorrow to investigate. The wave now about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands also remains disorganized, but conditions are expected to gradually become more favorable for development.

The Orlando Sentinel opines today about the selection of a new permanent Director of the National Hurricane Center: "Some of the whistles Mr. Proenza blew no doubt made it too uncomfortable for many to work for, near or above him. A department manager needs better people skills than that. But a department head also mustn't resist sounding alarms . . . "


South Florida's WFOR-TV has a video report on the NHC management situation.

The Weather Channel continues its coverage today of the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina with live reports from Mike Bettes in New Orleans and Julie Martin in Mississippi.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

DC: Decreasing Comfort


Partly sunny, warm, more humid. Temperatures mostly in the mid 80s are a few degrees cooler this afternoon in the Washington metro area, but increased dewpoints have more than made up the difference with lower comfort levels. If you had your air conditioning off last night, you may want to reverse that decision tonight. Like yesterday, however, radar is completely clear except for a few tiny showers in the mountains.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, moderately muggy. Lows tonight under partly to mostly cloudy skies will be near 70° downtown to the mid and upper 60s in the 'burbs. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny, a little warmer, and somewhat humid with highs 87-90°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The tropical wave (more formally, an "easterly wave") noted yesterday in the eastern Atlantic is now about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The Tropical Weather Outlook indicates that "environmental conditions are favorable for some development" as it continues moving westward.

The Miami Herald reports today that NOAA has partially reorganized the management of the National Hurricane Center following the recent ouster of Director Bill Proenza:
  • Interim Director Ed Rappaport will remain in that position through the end of the hurricane season
  • Bill Read, MIC (meteorologist-in-charge) of the NWS Houston-Galveston office will be interim Deputy Director
  • Richard Knabb, a lead hurricane forecaster, will be team leader for all 10 hurricane forecasters
The Florida Sun-Sentinel reports that a formal nationwide search will be conducted for a permanent Director, and the Houston Chron reviews the changes from a Texas point of view.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Approaching August Averages


Sunny, warm, less humid. Behind a weak cold front which has now moved off the Mid Atlantic coast, conditions are much more pleasant today than the weekend's sauna, which saw dewpoints at times above 75°. Temperatures this afternoon in the upper 80s (87° at 5pm at both National and Dulles) are near or a little above seasonable averages, and dewpoints are generally in the low 60s. Radar is clear in all directions for several hundred miles.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, warm. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will range from the upper 60s downtown to the low 60s in the cooler 'burbs. A more easterly wind direction tomorrow creates some problems with the temperature forecast, but as of now the models are virtually unanimous in keeping skies mainly sunny, so highs should range from 83-88° with only a little more humidity. (Yes, I do hesitate to depart from Jason's always excellent forecast, but I also have some good company on this.)

For the outlook through the rest of the week into the holiday weekend, scroll on down to Jason's post below.

Tropical Topics

The National Hurricane Center is watching a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic, about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It could possibly develop slowly during the next couple of days.


The PBS science series NOVA commemorates the second anniversary of Hurricane Katrina by rebroadcasting its excellent program, "Storm That Drowned a City". Check your local listings, but it's scheduled for 8pm tomorrow on WETA 26 and WMPT 22. The chart to the right, from, shows the extent of the Katrina flooding by superimposing the blue-outlined area, from White Oak nearly to Tyson's Corner and southeast to Oxon Hill, on a map of the DC metro region.

As Jason noted yesterday, weather got almost as much attention as the play action at Saturday night's Redskins-Ravens game. Congratulations to WUSA-9's Howard Bernstein on his excellent coverage of the event. Tune in here at on game days for the SkinsCast.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.