Thursday, March 1, 2007

Heavy Rain Likely
Flood Watch in Effect

**Flood Watch in effect 7PM tonight through tomorrow morning.**


Cloudy, seasonable Clouds were lowering and thickening this afternoon ahead of a massive storm system centered over the upper Midwest. Moderate to heavy precipitation is indicated over southern West Virginia late this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures were over 50° for the 3rd consecutive day, following the coldest February since 1979 and the 15th coldest since the beginning of official Washington records in 1871. February's total snowfall of 5.9" at National was above the 30-year average by 13%.

Today's high/departure from average: National 52°/+2, Dulles 51°/+1, BWI 50°/+1

Tonight and Tomorrow

Rain developing, moderate to heavy. Rain will develop over the region this evening from southwest to northeast, becoming moderate to heavy at times; scattered thunderstorms are possible. Lows will be in the upper 40s. Rain will end in the morning tomorrow with some clearing in the afternoon and highs in the upper 50s.

For the outlook through the weekend and beyond with Larson's Long-Range, scroll down to Josh's post below.

Blogosphere Climate

The ClimatePolicy blog was launched today by the American Meteorological Society's Policy Program. It is intended to "discuss a wide range of topics that span scientific understanding, impact assessment, policy analysis, and the value judgments that shape people’s policy preferences" related to climate change.


The Weather Channel's foray into prime-time infotainment continues with the debut of a new series, "Epic Conditions". The show, which features extreme outdoor sports, premieres Sunday at 9pm with an episode on extreme skiing at Steamboat. Media Daily reported last week that the new program will be replacing "Storm Stories" in the weekday schedule this fall.

MediaWeek reported Monday that new research shows significantly higher ad recall rates for the Weather Channel than USA Network or HGTV.

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Frigid February Finally Fading


Sunny, seasonable True to form, this February is finishing with a below-average day, although it's only by 1°. The seasonable temperatures felt even more springlike this afternoon with the strong sun and light winds. Highs were 51° at National, 52° at Dulles, 50° at BWI.

Meanwhile, a storm system which once again dumped on Denver with an additional 3-7" of snow will be heading toward the upper Great Lakes in the next couple of days, bringing possibly heavy rain to the Mid Atlantic area and an icy mix to interior southern New York and New England.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Increasing clouds, chance of rain in afternoon.
Clouds will begin to increase tonight with lows in the mid 30s downtown to near 30° in 'burbville. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of rain by evening and highs 48-52°

For the outlook Friday through the weekend, scroll down to Dan's post below. Also included in Dan's post is a post-mortem of Sunday's storm.

Climate Corner

An international panel of scientists sponsored by the United Nations Foundation and the scientific research honor society Sigma Xi released a report yesterday "outlining the best measures for mitigating and adapting to global warming." The executive summary, full report, and links to news coverage are available on the UNF web site.

(N)ice Art

Our link yesterday to Walter's snow sculpture was picked up by our friends at the USA Today weather blog.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Nibbling Away at the Cold


Mostly sunny, seasonable. After the persistent cold most of the rest of this month, today's near-average temperatures seem mild by comparison, as Sunday's snow continues to fade away, perhaps helped in part by the legendary Snow Mice. At mid afternoon, most reporting locations in the metro region were within a couple of degrees of 50°. Highs were 52° at National, 51° at Dulles and BWI.

Dry conditions will continue for another day or so while a new storm system organizes in the central Rockies and heads toward the Great Lakes on a similar track as the last one, promising an icy event for parts of the East Coast. This time, however, both of the main U.S. models have the ice zone a couple of hundred miles further north. This time they mean it. Honestly. Stay tuned.

Photo of snow sculpture from visitor Walter. See Flickr for some more amazing creations.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Partly cloudy, seasonable. Lows tonight under partly cloudy skies will be from the low and mid 30s in town to the upper 20s in the cooler 'burbvilles. Tomorrow will be similar to today, but with a bit more sun, and highs 48-52°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

Revenue Removal

An article in today's WaPo Metro section implies that local transportation departments could use some help from the Snow Mice. Despite the aggregate snow total being only about 50% of "normal", seemingly chronically underfunded snow removal budgets have already been exceeded, in some cases prior to Sunday's event.

Monday, February 26, 2007

Snow Turns to Slush


Melting. Temperatures at or above freezing during much of yesterday's main event, through the overnight hours, and then emerging sunshine today have made quick work of melting the snow accumulation in the Washington metro area. Here at PM Update Central outside the Beltway in MoCo, where 5½" fell, patches of ground are already showing, especially on south-facing lawns. Highs were 40° at National, 42° at Dulles, 43° at BWI, after lows of 32° at all 3 locations.

The leftover moisture in the area, along with some upper-level energy moving nearby to the south, could produce some fog, as well as light rain showers or flurries tonight through tomorrow morning.

Tonight and Tomorrow

Some fog, chance of showers or flurries, milder. Lows tonight under variable cloudiness should range from the mid 30s downtown to the upper 20s in 'burbville. Some fog is likely to develop, and there is a 30% chance of rain showers or snow flurries through tomorrow morning. Clouds will decrease during the day tomorrow with highs in the upper 40s to 50°.

For the outlook through the rest of the week, scroll down to Jason's post below.

V-Day Storm Rated Cat 3

The Valentine's Day snow/ice storm has been given a preliminary rating of Category 3 ("major") on the new Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS). The storm was ranked as the "14th biggest impact out of a sample of 34 of the largest winter storms since 1950, and it was one of the largest winter storms to strike interior sections of the Northeast (as opposed to coastal areas) since 1950. The storm was one of the top three interior Northeast snowstorms observed since 1940."

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.

Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.