Washington Fails to Reach 65° in March, First Time Since 1958

March 2013 has closed out the record books with a monthly high temperature in Washington of 63°. This is the coldest high for March since the 58° in 1958. It's only the second time Washington has failed to reach 65° in March since the 60° high in 1931.

The unofficial monthly average of 43.8°, however, was only 3.0° below normal, making this the 55th coldest March since temperature records began in 1871.

Snowbound Sunday in Springfield: All-Time Daily Snowfall Record; St. Louis Also Sets March Record

The National Weather Service reports that Springfield, Illinois set a daily snowfall record on March 24:

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 17 INCHES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL ON   
SUNDAY MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 2.4 INCHES SET IN 1947.  

According to NWS data, this would also be an all-time daily snowfall record at Springfield:

MOST SNOW IN 24 HOURS

Rank	Amount	Date
1	15.0 inches	Feb. 28, 1900
2	13.3 inches	Jan. 1-2, 1999
3	12.6 inches	Jan. 30-31, 1914
4	11.3 inches	Jan. 31-Feb. 1, 2008
5	11.2 inches	Feb. 12-13, 2007
6	10.9 inches	Dec. 19, 1973
7	10.7 inches	Feb. 12, 1894
8	10.5 inches	Dec. 24, 1915
9	10.3 inches	Feb. 23-24, 1965
10	9.4 inches	March 19-20, 1906

A daily snowfall record was also set at Peoria and Lincoln:

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES WAS SET AT PEORIA IL ON SUNDAY   
MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.7 INCHES SET IN 1933.  

A DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL OF 10.8 INCHES WAS SET AT LINCOLN IL ON  
SUNDAY MARCH 24TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4 INCHES SET IN   
1947.    

According to NWS records, this is also an all-time March daily record for Lincoln, exceeding the 7.5" on March 16, 1960.

The axis of heaviest snow also extended westward to St. Louis, where it was the heaviest daily snowfall for March and the second heaviest for any calendar day. From the NWS:

THE LATE SEASON WINTER STORM WHICH BROUGHT VERY HEAVY SNOW TO THE
REGION YESTERDAY WILL GO DOWN IN THE RECORD BOOKS AS THE HIGHEST
CALENDAR DAY MARCH SNOWFALL. THIS WAS ALSO THE SECOND HIGHEST
CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL EVER...AND THE SIXTH GREATEST SNOWFALL EVENT
FOR ST LOUIS.

HERE ARE THE TOP TEN LISTS (PLEASE NOTE THAT OFFICIAL SNOWFALL
RECORDS FOR ST LOUIS GO BACK TO 1891)...

TOP TEN MARCH CALENDAR DAY SNOWFALL
(MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT)

1. *12.4 INCHES  3/24/2013
2.  12.1 INCHES  3/24/1912
3.  10.0 INCHES  3/4/2008...3/6/1989...3/9/1958
6.   9.1 INCHES  3/19/1906
7.   8.6 INCHES  3/20/1924
8.   8.3 INCHES  3/26/1913
9.   7.8 INCHES  3/2/1912
10.  7.3 INCHES  3/23/1974

TOP TEN SNOWFALL CALENDAR DAYS
(MIDNIGHT TO MIDNIGHT)

1.  12.8 INCHES  2/26/1906
2.  *12.4 INCHES 3/24/2013
3.  12.1 INCHES  3/24/1912
4.  12.0 INCHES  12/19/1973
5.  11.7 INCHES  2/13/1914
6.  11.3 INCHES  2/16/1910
7.  11.2 INCHES  1/31/1958
8.  11.0 INCHES  1/11/1909
9.  10.9 INCHES  1/16/1978
10  10.5 INCHES  12/30/1973

TOP TEN SNOWFALL EVENTS
(ANY 24 HOUR PERIOD...POSSIBLY SPANNING CALENDAR DAYS)

1.  15.6 INCHES  2/20-21/1912
2.  13.9 INCHES  1/30-31/1982
3.  13.3 INCHES  2/16-17/1910
4.  13.0 INCHES  2/12-13/1914
5.  12.8 INCHES  2/26/1906
6.  *12.6 INCHES 3/24-25/2013  (7AM-7AM CDT)
7.  12.5 INCHES  1/16-17/1978
8.  12.1 INCHES  3/24/1912
9.  12.0 INCHES  12/19/1973
10. 12.0 INCHES  1/11-12/1909  

Think It Was Cold Today, DC? Not Your Great-Great Grandfather's March of the Penguins

Denizens of the DMV were complaining about the early-spring cold this March 21, but the chill was nowhere near the historical extremes for this date or any other date through the end of the month. Although the high for the day of 42° was set shortly after midnight, the daytime temperatures were mostly in the 30s. On the other hand, the afternoon high did reach 41°. This was well below the historical average of 58° in Washington, DC, but it was also a full 10° above the coldest high temperature for the date, which was set in 1885. In fact, it would not be near any coldest high for the remainder of March.

The CapitalClimate chart from National Weather Service data shows that all but 1 of the 13 record coldest high temperatures from March 19-31 were set over 100 years ago. The one exception was 73 years ago, on 03/25/1940.

Washington March Snow: Rare Event Becoming Rarer?

The climatological average for March snowfall in Washington is just 1.3", so significant snowfalls in the first month of meteorological spring are rare. With the bust of the current "Snowquester", it's likely that 2013 will add to a string of nearly snowless Marches extending back to 2009, when a total of 5.5" was recorded.

In the early days of official snowfall records, which began in Washington in 1888, March snow was relatively common. In fact, the first 6 years in the climate record had measurable March snow; 3 of those were over 10".

The chart shows on the horizontal axis all of the years with 4" or more of total snowfall in March. The vertical axis is the number of years since the previous occurrence of 4"+. For example, if 4" occurred in consecutive years, the interval would be shown as 1. For the first several decades, the interval between significant March snows never exceeded 4 years, but in 1923 it reached 9. The interval reached double digits for the first time in 1956, when it was 13. It was 13 again in 1993, and 10 in 2009, which ended a March snow dry spell that began after 1999.

Unless this month has a miraculous snowfall recovery, the current March snow drought will be 4 years and counting.

Blizzard Threatens Texas All-Time Snowfall Records

8 PM CST February 26 Update: Map updated with final totals.

8 PM CST Update: The Amarillo snow total of 19" is the third heaviest for any storm on record:

19 inches of snow at NWS #Amarillo. 2nd most snow in a calendar day and 3rd most for any event. #phwx #amablizzard

— NWS Amarillo (@NWSAmarillo) February 26, 2013

4 PM CST Update: Here are some unofficial snowfall reports from the National Weather Service for the Texas panhandle:

Location              Snowfall  Source
7 ENE Amarillo  TX      17      nws office
Fritch          TX      16      trained spotter
Pampa           TX      15      co-op observer
6 SE Booker     TX      14      trained spotter
Fritch          TX      14      trained spotter
White Deer      TX      14      public
Booker          TX      14      emergency mngr
Fritch          TX      13      public
3 S Darrouzett  TX      12.5    trained spotter
Dumas           TX      12      law enforcement
Bushland        TX      12      public
6 SW Amarillo   TX      12      trained spotter 

Original Post:
The ongoing blizzard in the Texas panhandle is threatening to break some all-time Texas snowfall records. These are the current snowfall records at Amarillo, from the National Weather Service:

Max for 24 hours: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934
Max for a single storm: 20.6 inches on March 25-26, 1934
Max for one month: 28.7 inches in February 1903
Max measured snow depth: 17.0 inches on February 26, 1903
Max for a season: 50.9 inches in 1918-19

The NWS at Amarillo reports:

GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. THE NWS OFFICE NOW HAS OVER 13 INCHES
ON THE GROUND WITH 3-4 FOOT DRIFTS AND A MAX GUST TO 58 MPH. THE SE
TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN WITH SNOW AFTER THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THESE AREAS
MIGHT END UP WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 8 INCH SIDE THAN THE 14 INCH
SIDE OF THEIR RANGE. AT THE END OF THE DAY...THE HEAVIEST TOTALS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ALONG A PALO DURO CANYON TO AMARILLO TO
STINNETT TO PERRYTON LINE.

SOME RECORDS SEEM TO BE IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION TODAY. THE FIRST IS
AN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT AMARILLO OF 20.6 INCHES FROM
MARCH 25-26 1934. WE WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE OR SURPASS THIS
NUMBER BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE OTHER IS THE ALL-TIME STATE OF TEXAS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF
25 INCHES IN FOLLETT SET MARCH 28 2009. SOMEWHERE IN THE
PERRYTON/STINNETT/BORGER/AMARILLO AREA COULD APPROACH THIS VALUE BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  

Record Low Mid-Atmospheric Pressure Predicted for Midwest Blizzard

The maximum intensity for the developing Midwest blizzard is nearly 2 days away, but a major forecast model is predicting mid-atmospheric pressures at least as low as any observed during February in the region since systematic upper-air observations began in 1948. Based on data from this morning, the NOAA/NCEP GFS model is predicting super-low pressures by Tuesday morning near the middle of the atmosphere above the storm. The map above shows the predicted height (meters) of the level at which the pressure is 500 mb, or roughly half the value at the surface. The small circle near the Missouri-Arkansas border is labeled 528, or 5280 meters (approximately 3 miles). The values inside the circle would be even lower. According to historical data from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory, the 500 mb height has never been as low as 5280 meters in that region since 1948. Here is a list of the top 10 lowest observations in February at latitude 35 N, longitude 90 W:

Date       Meters
1991,2,15, 5287
1964,2,19, 5314
1978,2,21, 5318
1984,2,28, 5323
1965,2,25, 5334
1970,2, 3, 5345
1971,2, 9, 5357
2010,2,15, 5357
1958,2, 2, 5361
1984,2, 5, 5361 

Looked at another way, the composite forecast from an ensemble of GFS forecast runs made from last night's data indicates that the 500 mb height departure from the long-term average will be as much as 5 standard deviations by Monday night (chart to the right, click to enlarge). For a purely randomly distributed event, a negative departure from average of 4.5 standard deviations would occur only 3 times in a million.

Next Storm Threatens Wichita All-Time Monthly Snow Record [Update: Record Broken]

February 26, 9 AM CST Update: The Wichita daily record snowfall of 4.8" yesterday, plus 2" so far today, brings the monthly total to 21", which breaks the record.

February 25, 8 PM CST Update: The heaviest snow appears to be passing south of Wichita. The National Weather Service reports just 1.9" so far today.

4 PM CST Update: The latest National Weather Service updated forecast calls for over 14" of snow at Wichita. This could exceed the old monthly record by an incredible 8":



Original Post:
It's still getting itself organized over the Rockies, but the next Midwest storm is threatening to bring heavy snow to Kansas for the second time within a week. The current forecast is calling for 6-12" of new snow for Wichita. If this verifies even slightly above the low end of the range, it could push the current monthly total of 14.2" above the all-time monthly record of 20.5" set exactly 100 years ago.