Wettest UK Summer in a Century

The UK Met Office reports that Summer 2012 is likely to be the wettest since 1912 and the second wettest on record:

Figures up to the 29 August show that 366.8 mm of rain fell across the UK. It is not expected that rainfall this summer will exceed the 384.4 mm of rain seen in the summer of 1912, which is the wettest.

These latest figures follow a record wet April, and an April to June period that was also the wettest recorded in the UK.

August 2012 looks set to be the driest and sunniest of the three summer months across the UK with 105.5 mm of rain to the 29 August and 140 hours of sunshine up to 28 August. The mean temperature for August was 15.7 °C, in a month that also saw the hottest day of the year so far, reaching 32.4 °C at Cavendish, Suffolk on the 18th.

Summer 2012 is also likely to be one of the dullest summers on record with just 399 hours of sunshine up to 28 August. This makes it the dullest summer since 1980 when the UK saw only 396 hours of sunshine.

To complete the disappointing picture, it has also been a relatively cool summer with a mean temperature of 14.0 °C, some 0.4 °C below the long term average. Despite this it was a little warmer than the summer of 2011 which saw a mean temperature of only 13.7 °C.

Unsettled weather has never been far from the UK during the past three months. Movements in the track of the jet stream, a narrow band of fast flowing westerly winds high in the atmosphere, have contributed to the weather we have seen. This summer has seen periods of heavy and prolonged rain, as well as short but exceptionally heavy thundery downpours and only brief warm sunny spells.

Looking at the individual countries of the UK, it is set to be the second wettest summer on record in England, third wettest in Wales, ninth in Northern Ireland, and the seventh wettest in Scotland. For sunshine it is expected to be the second dullest summer in England and Wales, 12th in Northern Ireland and 16th dullest in Scotland.

Image (click to enlarge): UK precipitation (mm/day), June 1-August 20, 2012, from NOAA/ESRL

Warm U.S. Year Rolls Through 37th Consecutive Week

The record warm year of 2012 continued through the 37th consecutive week of above-average temperatures in the U.S., according to preliminary analysis from the National Climatic Data Center for August 19-25. The national average of 0.8° above normal was down slightly from 1.2° the previous week. The month-to-date average was 1.3° warmer than normal with one week left in August. Once again, only 3 of the 9 regions were cooler than average (East North-Central, Central, and Southeast).

Given the remarkable week-to-week consistency of the warm temperatures, it's not surprising that nearly the entire country is averaging above normal for the year to date. Only the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California have been cooler than average in the interval from January 1 through today.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal, weeks ending June 4, 2011 (20110604) through August 25, 2012 (20120825); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Average U.S. temperature departure from normal for August 1-28, 2012 from High Plains Regional Climate Center
- Average U.S. temperature departure from normal for January 1-August 28, 2012 from High Plains Regional Climate Center

Despite Cooling Midwest, U.S. Has 36th Consecutive Warm Week

The preliminary National Climatic Data Center analysis shows that the U.S. national average temperature was 1.2° above normal in the week ending August 18, with the month-to-date average 1.5° above. As was the case in the previous week, the East North-Central region was below average, and the cooler temperatures spread into the Central and West North-Central regions. However, the other 6 regions remained warmer than average.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal, weeks ending June 4, 2011 (20110604) through August 18, 2012 (20120818); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Average U.S. temperature departure from normal for August 12-18, 2012 from High Plains Regional Climate Center

Tropical Rainfall Rate in Arctic Alaska

From the National Weather Service in Alaska:

Roughly one third of the annual precipitation has fallen in Northwest Alaska over the past 4 days! 3.5 inches of rain at Kivalina, 2.5 inches at Kotzebue and 5 inches at Red Dog Mine, a region where rainfall in excess of 3 inches over 3 days is a once-in-a-hundred-year event.

The Wulik River below Tutak Creek crested at 6 A.M. this morning with a river level of 15.31 feet. This was the highest stage ever observed since the gauge was installed in 1985, and far exceeds the previous record of 12.21 feet set in August of 1994. Water levels in the area will remain high as additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected in the next 48 hours. Water levels are also high in the village of Noatak.

The system is moving east, and rises are expected on the Kobuk River, although the Kobuk near Kiana remains well below flood stage.

Many of the rivers in this area do not have gauges, but based on rainfall there is significant potential for widespread flooding.

4th Warmest July Global Temperature, All-Time Warmest July Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature

The July 2012 global temperature analysis, posted this morning by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), shows that the combined land and ocean temperature was the 4th warmest on record. The Northern Hemisphere land temperature was the warmest on record for July. As was the case in May, all 12 of the Julys since 2001 have been in the top 14 warmest on record.

Highlights from the NCDC:

The average combined global land and ocean surface temperature for July 2012 was 0.62°C (1.12°F) above the 20th century average of 15.8°C (60.4°F). This is the fourth warmest July since records began in 1880.

The globally-averaged land surface temperature for July 2012 was the third warmest July on record, at 0.92°C (1.66°F) above average.

The Northern Hemisphere land surface temperature for July 2012 was the all-time warmest July on record, at 1.19°C (2.14°F) above average.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for January–July 2012 was the 10th warmest such period on record, at 0.53°C (0.95°F) above the 20th century average.

Muller Keeps Spinning

Self-designated climate expert Richard Muller appeared on the Diane Rehm show on NPR this morning, along with Juliet Eilperin, a shark book author and occasional environment reporter, and Michael MacCracken, chief scientist at the Climate Institute. Although apparently now convinced of 1980s-level climate science, Muller kept spinning the story as a political issue, almost immediately casting it as a Republican vs. Democrat story (i.e., Republicans were "more aware" of the "terrible quality" of the temperature record).

Among the voluminous Muller whoppers:
- Katrina is irrelevant because it was only a Category 3 at New Orleans
- Precipitation extremes are not significant
- Emissions are China's fault
- Decades of previous inaction are not a problem

Audio at the link, if you can stand it:
New Consensus On Climate Change

34th and 35th Consecutive Warm Weeks Continue U.S. Hot Trend Into 9th Month

August 14 Update: The preliminary National Climatic Data Center analysis shows that the U.S. national average temperature was 1.9° above normal in the past week, with the month-to-date average 1.7° above. For the first time in 10 weeks, the East North-Central region was below average at -1.0°.

Original post:
CapitalClimate analysis of preliminary reports from 215 National Weather Service stations across the 48 contiguous states shows that the unadjusted U.S. national average temperature was 1.4° above climatological normal for the week ending yesterday, August 11. Thanks to some cooling in the Midwest and Southeast, this was down somewhat from the record 3.3° for the month of July. However, the past 2 weeks are the 34th and 35th consecutive weeks of above-average temperatures. With August now one-third over, every single week so far in 2012 has been warmer than climatology. The last cool week ended 8 months ago, on December 10.

Of the 215 locations, 63% were above average, vs. 88% the previous week. All of the 9 National Climatic Data Center climate regions have been warmer than average for each of the 5 weeks through August 4.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Weekly average U.S. temperature departures from normal, weeks ending June 4, 2011 (20110604) through August 11, 2012 (20120811); CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data
- Weekly average NWS station temperature departures from normal, weeks ending August 4 and August 11, 2012; stations listed alphabetically by state and 3-character station identifier; CapitalClimate charts from NWS data
- Average U.S. temperature departure from normal for August 5-11, 2012 from High Plains Regional Climate Center