Saturday, February 4, 2012

Denver Breaks All-Time February 1-Day and 3-Day Snowfall Records


The National Weather Service reports that the heavy snowfall through this morning at Denver has set new 1-day and 3-day records for February:
12.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON FEBRUARY
3RD 2012. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE
OLD RECORD WAS 7.5 INCHES SET BACK IN 1932. THE 12.5 INCHES THAT
FELL ALSO ESTABLISHED A DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY. THE PREVIOUS DAILY SNOWFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WAS 9.5
INCHES ON FEBRUARY 22ND 1909 AND FEBRUARY 19TH 1953.

IN ADDITION...FROM THE EVENING OF THE 2ND THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE
4TH...15.9 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS
ESTABLISHES A NEW THREE DAY SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY. THE OLD RECORD OF 14.1 INCHES OCCURRED BACK IN 1912.
Denver climate history began in 1872. The average temperature for the first 3 days of February at Denver is 2.5° above normal. Since Denver generally has its heaviest late-season snows in March, this could be considered an early spring storm.

Preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center show 27 daily snowfall records set on February 3, nearly all in Colorado.

Image (click to enlarge): Snowfall totals in the Denver region, February 2-4, 2012, from National Weather Service

Friday, February 3, 2012

Heat Record Numbers Continue Crushing Cold Count Into February, 176 to 0 (Plus 2 in Alaska, You Betcha', Sarah P)

Image (click to enlarge): U.S. daily high temperature records tied or broken ("X"), February 1-2, 2012, from National Climatic Data Center

5 PM Update: Tom Nelson really is a bot if he thinks this in any way supports his agenda, but thanks for the link, anyway. (While you're here, bot fans, please check out some of the other 211 posts on the subject of record temperatures.)

Original post:
The overwhelming ratio of daily high temperature records to low temperature records has continued from January into the first 2 days of February. Preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center show 176 heat records broken in the first 2 days of the month, vs. 0 cold records in the lower 48 states, plus all of 2 in Alaska. You betcha', partial-term governor Sarah Palin, it really is cold in Alaska.

Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Heat Records Demolish Cold Records for 13th Consecutive Month;
January Ends With Incredible Ratio of [Update] 29 to 1 in Contiguous U.S.

Feb. 1, AM Update: The National Climatic Data Center reports an additional 123 new high temperature records on January 31 (vs. 0 cold records). This brings the ratio for the month to nearly 22 to 1 and the ratio for the lower 48 states to 29 to 1. The chart has been updated.

Midnight Update: The record temperatures on January 30 extended into the Midwest, where Omaha tied its all-time January temperature record and several long-term daily records were smashed by as much as 10°. The National Weather Service reports:
New temperature records were set today, January 30th, 2012 across eastern Nebraska. Omaha's new record is 69 degrees, which breaks the previous record of 60 set in 1974. This also ties the all time high in January, which was reached January 25, 1944. In Lincoln, the new record high is 70, breaking the previous record of 60 set in 1931. And in Norfolk, the new record high is 67, breaking the previous record of 57 set in 1992.
Original post:
A very mild January 2012 is ending with more new high temperature records being set in the Mid Atlantic region and the Northeast. Washington Dulles has at least tied broken the daily record for January 31 with 66° (old record 65° in 1993). By mid afternoon, the 54° at Bridgeport CT exceeded the old record of 53° set in 1974. At Islip NY, where the climate history extends back only to 1986, the temperature of 52° before noon broke the old record of 51° set in 1988. The 63° at Georgetown DE exceeded by 3° the record of 60° in 1974.

The 63° at Atlantic City NJ tied the record from 1988 in a climate history which began back in 1874.

This is now the 13th consecutive month that new high temperature records have exceeded low temperature records in the U.S., since cold records eked out a ratio of 1.5 to 1 vs. heat records in December 2010. The preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center through January 30 show heat records crushing cold records by a ratio of 20.7 to 1, nearly as high as the incredible 22.2 to 1 last August. Without the 25% of total January cold records set in Alaska, the ratio for the contiguous 48 states is 27.5 to 1. With meteorological winter now two-thirds over, the ratio for the season as a whole is at 6.2 to 1.

Image (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for December 2010 through January 30, 2012, seasonal ratio for summer and fall 2011, winter 2011-2012 to date, and annual ratio for 2011 and 2010
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Dallas Deluge Demolishes Daily Downpour Data;
New January Daily Rainfall Record, Second Wettest January

Following last year's exceptional drought, the climate pendulum has jumped to the opposite extreme, bringing record rainfall and floods to portions of north Texas. Although the National Weather Service reports that the heavy rain has ended, the 3.54" of rain so far today at Dallas is nearly 3 times the old record for the date of 1.28" in 1973. The daily total is also an all-time January daily record, exceeding the 3.15" on January 4, 1998, and it's the second-highest daily total for any winter day (December-February), behind the 4.22" on December 20, 1991.

The January 2012 monthly total to date of 6.04" is approaching 4 times the normal amount of 1.66". It also surpasses the 5.58" in January 2007 to become the second wettest January, behind 9.07" in 1932.

Note: Although the Dallas/Ft. Worth climate record is considered continuous back to 1898, data have been collected at several locations in the area:
  • 1898-1940: Downtown Fort Worth
  • 1940-1953: Fort Worth Meacham Field
  • 1953-1974: Greater Southwest International Airport
  • 1974-present: Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
Image (click to enlarge): 24-hour rainfall totals ending 1 pm CST, January 25, 2012, in the Dallas region, from National Weather Service

Sunday, January 22, 2012

Gas Bubble: Coal Market Share for U.S. Electricity Generation Declines from 50% to 43% in 2 Years

The good news: Electricity generation from coal is declining sharply in the U.S., from 50% 2 years ago to 43% today.

The bad news: The reason for the drop is that there is a "virtually infinite" supply of natural gas. The lowest gas prices in at least a decade ($2.34 Friday morning) are making coal-fired power plants uneconomical. Out of 350 gigawatts of coal capacity, roughly 50 gigawatts are at risk for replacement by cheap gas.

Kenneth Hersh, NGP Energy Capital Management Co. CEO was interviewed on CNBC Friday morning (January 20):

Friday, January 20, 2012

Mid-Winter 2012 Temperature Update: Heat Records Crushing Cold Records by Over 6 to 1

At the midpoint of meteorological winter (December-February), new high temperature records are outnumbering low temperature records in the U.S. by a ratio of 6.2 to 1, according to preliminary reports from the National Climatic Data Center. Thanks to an incredible ratio of nearly 34 to 1 in the first half of January, the seasonal ratio is the highest since the over 11 to 1 value last summer. The total count of 2545 new heat records for the first 6 weeks for winter outnumbers the total cold records in the last 6 months of 2011.

The preliminary analysis from NOAA/NCEP data for December 1-January 16 shows the warmest temperatures relative to average (as much as 8°C above) in western Canada, extending southeastward across most of the U.S. The only area in the country with substantially below-average temperatures includes New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

Images (click to enlarge):
- Monthly ratio of daily high temperature to low temperature records set in the U.S. for December 2010 through January 16, 2012, seasonal ratio for summer and fall 2011, winter 2011-2012 to date, and annual ratio for 2011 and 2010;
- U.S. temperature departure from climatological average, December 1, 2011 to January 16, 2012
CapitalClimate chart from NOAA/NCDC data, background image © Kevin Ambrose (www.weatherbook.com). Includes historical daily observations archived in NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data set and preliminary reports from Cooperative Observers and First Order National Weather Service stations. All stations have a Period of Record of at least 30 years.
U.S. average temperature map from NOAA/NCEP via ESRL

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Minneapolis Ties Record for Latest Sub-Zero Temperature;
New Record Missed by 1 Hour

12:30 AM CST Update: It's semi-official; the preliminary daily climate summary for January 18 reports a low temperature of -1° at the Twin Cities. St. Cloud hit -9° tonight after having been -3° in the morning.

Original post:
The temperature this winter has remained above 0° at Minneapolis through January 17 (Tuesday), at least tying the record for latest below-zero reading, on January 18 in 1889 and 2002. After the morning low of +2°, the temperature was at 0° as of 11 pm CST and falling. The midnight temperature was -1°, so the record was missed by 1 hour. The National Weather Service reported earlier:
The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures failed to drop below zero.

In the Twin Cities, the long term average for the first below zero reading is December 9th. The least number of below zero days was 2, back in the winter of 2001-2002. January 18th is the latest date on record during the winter season that the Twin Cities has experienced its first below zero temperature (set back in 1889 and 2002).

The temperature Wednesday morning (January 18th) failed to drop below zero, and is expected to remain above zero for the rest of the day, so this record has been tied. The "latest sub-zero temperature" record is expected to be broken tomorrow (January 19th) when temperatures drop below zero at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport early Thursday morning.

Mankato has also not dropped below zero this winter, as of January 17th. However, the low temperature is expected to drop below zero Thursday morning, ending the streak there as well. The least number of below zero days for a given winter in Mankato was 6 back in the winter of 1982-1983.

St Cloud, Albert Lea and Eau Claire have already seen below zero days this winter. As of January 17th, St. Cloud and Albert Lea have all dropped below zero 3 times. Eau Claire has dropped below zero 2 times so far.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.