Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Minneapolis Snowfall Update: Sixth Fifth Snowiest Season

March 24 Update: The 84.7" Minneapolis seasonal snowfall to date is confirmed.

Midnight CDT Update: An unofficially final amount of 4.1" for March 23 leaves the Minneapolis seasonal snowfall total at 84.7", still in 5th place, but just 0.2" behind 1916-17.

5 PM CDT Update: Snow ended at 4:08 pm with only a trace of precipitation since 1:00, so the total of 84.6" is likely to hold.

3 PM CDT Update: An additional 1" which had apparently been recorded earlier raises the total to 84.6", putting the seasonal snowfall in 5th place if confirmed. Further accumulation of up to 1" is forecast through 7 pm. An amount of 0.4" or more would be enough to reach 4th place.

Original post:
Minneapolis is reporting 3" of snow in the last 6 hours as of 1 pm CDT. Combined with the 0.4" reported yesterday, this brings the seasonal total unofficially to 83.6". That amount would put this season in 6th place, behind the 1991-1992 amount of 84.1". Light snow is continuing, although visibility has increased substantially during the past hour.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Sunday's Strong Spring Storm Soaks SoCal;
All-Time Daily Rainfall Record at Santa Barbara

Image (click to enlarge): California 24-hour precipitation ending 5 am PDT, March 21, 2011, from National Weather Service

March 21, 8 AM PDT Update: The National Weather Service reports that numerous daily rainfall records were broken by wide margins. In addition, it was the:
  • Wettest all-time calendar day at Santa Barbara
  • Second wettest all-time and wettest for the month of March at Camarillo
  • Wettest March day at Palmdale
  • Second wettest March day at Sandberg
  • Third wettest March day at Los Angeles Airport
From the National Weather Service:
STATION                   RAINFALL ON        PREVIOUS      YEAR 
MARCH 20 2011 RECORD
------------- -------- ----

DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 2.42 INCHES 1.48 INCHES 1943
LOS ANGELES AIRPORT 2.36 INCHES 1.04 INCHES 1992
BURBANK AIRPORT 3.85 INCHES 1.15 INCHES 1973
PALMDALE AIRPORT 1.29 INCHES 0.50 INCHES 1973
LANCASTER AIRPORT 1.48 INCHES 0.74 INCHES 1992
SANDBERG 3.29 INCHES 1.33 INCHES 1992
SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT 5.23 INCHES 0.90 INCHES 1991
CAMARILLO AIRPORT 4.91 INCHES 2.26 INCHES 1954
OXNARD NWS 4.21 INCHES 2.26 INCHES 1954
SANTA MARIA AIRPORT 3.46 INCHES 0.74 INCHES 1958
PASO ROBLES AIRPORT 2.02 INCHES 0.77 INCHES 1992

AT SANTA BARBARA AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON
RECORD...AS THE 5.23 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH FELL EXCEEDED THE PREVIOUS
RECORD OF 4.74 INCHES RECORDED ON MARCH 15TH 2003.

AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST CALENDAR DAY ON
RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH...WITH 4.91 INCHES OF RAIN. THE PREVIOUS
RECORD WAS MARCH 8TH 1968...WHEN 4.60 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. IT WAS THE
2ND WETTEST CALENDAR DAY EVER AT CAMARILLO AIRPORT...FOLLOWING
JANUARY 26TH 1956...WHEN 5.96 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED.

AT PALMDALE AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE WETTEST MARCH DAY EVER
RECORDED. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.20 INCHES...SET MARCH 7TH 1952.

AT SANDBERG...IT WAS THE 2ND WETTEST CALENDAR DAY EVER FOR THE
MONTH OF MARCH. THE WETTEST MARCH DAY IN SANDBERG WAS MARCH 28TH
1993...WHEN 3.38 INCHES OF RAIN WAS REPORTED.

AT LOS ANGELES AIRPORT...YESTERDAY WAS THE 3RD WETTEST MARCH DAY
ON RECORD...BEHIND MARCH 7TH 1968 ON WHICH 3.10 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL...AND MARCH 1ST 1983 ON WHICH 2.55 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.
In the San Diego area, the 1.09" at Fullerton broke the record of 0.95" set in 1954.

To the north, in the San Joaquin Valley, records were also widespread:
THE STORM SYSTEM THAT DRENCHED THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR  
ON SUNDAY PRODUCED 1.82 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE FRESNO YOSEMITE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SHATTERED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF
1.22 INCHES FOR THE DATE THAT WAS ESTABLISHED MORE THAN A
HUNDRED YEARS AGO IN 1893.

AT MEADOWS FIELD AIRPORT IN BAKERSFIELD...RAINFALL TOTALED
0.89 INCHES SUNDAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR MARCH
20TH OF 0.87 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED IN 1973.

OTHER 24-HOUR RAINFALL RECORDS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FOR
MARCH 20TH INCLUDE 1.63 INCHES AT THE MERCED MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...
1.27 INCHES IN HANFORD...AND 1.41 INCHES IN MADERA.
In the San Francisco Bay area, Salinas set a new record of 0.97", doubling the old record of 0.48" in 2006. Salinas climate records began in 1930.

Original post:
The strong Pacific storm pounding Southern California on Sunday is setting at least one all-time rainfall record. The Weather Channel twitches that the all-time daily rainfall record at Santa Barbara Municipal Airport (KSBA) is 4.74" on 3/15/2003. The 4.59" reported through 6 pm local time has been augmented by 4 more consecutive hours of rainfall, resulting in an unofficial total through 10 pm of 5.24". This not only smashes the all-time record by half an inch, but it's also nearly 6 times the old March 20 daily record of 0.90" in 1991.

Normal precipitation for the entire month of March in Santa Barbara is 3.59"; climate records began in 1941.

Both Los Angeles airport (KLAX) and downtown (KCQT) had set daily records by 6 pm. The airport has received at least half an inch of additional rainfall since that time, and downtown has added about 0.8".

Update to be posted when final amounts are available.

Friday, March 18, 2011

European Summer of 2010: Hottest in 500 Years

A statistical study of the extreme European heat wave in the summer of 2010, published in today's issue of Science, indicates that it was the hottest European summer in at least 500 years. AAAS, the publisher of Science, reports:
To put the 2010 heat wave in perspective, the researchers compared it with other temperature anomalies reaching back to 1871, in terms of length, spatial extent and temperature. They say that at least two summers in this decade—2003 and 2010—have most likely been the warmest of the last 510 years in Europe.

"During the 2001-2010 decade, 500-year long records were broken over approximately 65% of Europe, including eastern Europe, southwestern-central Europe, the Balkans and Turkey," they report.
The chart above shows a statistical distribution of the European summer temperature departures from the 1970-1999 base period. Each year from 1500 to 2010 is shown as a vertical line, with the 5 coldest and 5 warmest summers highlighted and labeled. The gray line shows the frequency distribution from 1500 through 2002, with a Gaussian (random) distribution fitted to the data in black. The lower chart shows the distribution of extreme summers (95th percentile or higher) per decade. Note the huge spike upward for decades ending in the current century.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Former NOAA Administrator: "Bleak Assessment"

Former NOAA Administrator D. James Baker wrote the following letter published in the March 7 issue of The New Yorker:
Hendrik Hertzberg’s bleak assessment of American climate policy is on the mark, and should be viewed in the context of an even bleaker global scene, in which China and India will continue their rapid economic growth and accompanying emissions (Comment, February 7th). History shows that changes in energy-capital infrastructure take decades; barring a technical miracle, the concentration of greenhouse gases will likely double or triple by the end of the century, bringing a new and inhospitable planet Earth, rife with extreme weather and other climate disruptions. We should do everything we can to produce green and carbon-free economies while at the same time recognizing that there must be a major effort to adapt to this new Earth. It can be done, but it won’t be easy. The ineffective response to Hurricane Katrina shows that even the most developed countries are unable to respond well to extremes of weather. If that is the best we can do, we have much to learn about how to be prepared for the new climate.
Baker was NOAA Administrator from May 1993 to January 2001. According to his biography (scroll down):
Dr. Baker received his B.S. from Stanford University, and holds a PhD in experimental physics from Cornell University. He has held faculty positions at numerous prestigious research universities, and is the founding President of the Oceanography Society. Author of Planet Earth: The View from Space, Dr. Baker has written more than 100 articles on climate, oceanography, space technology, natural resource management and sustainable development.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Record Moisture Fuels Massive Northeast Snowfall;
Update: Precipitation Records Smashed from DC to New England


6 PM Update: The 1.17" of precipitation at Burlington today exceeded the old record of 0.91" in 1922 by 30%. Burlington climate records began in 1884. The 1.09" which fell yesterday was only slightly short of the record 1.17" set in 1920.

Although Concord, New Hampshire had only a trace of snow, the precipitation of 1.50" broke by almost 50% the old record for March 7 of 1.03" set in 1926. Concord climate records date back to 1871.

Portland, Maine also had a trace of snow, but the 2.09" of precipitation beat the old record of 1.56" set in 1923.

Hartford's 1.50" broke the old record of 1.39" set in 1967; records began 1904. Hartford also had 2.22" the previous day; the record is 2.48" in 1979.

Watertown, New York set a record of 0.92" on Saturday (March 5).

Buffalo also set a record on the 5th with 1.33", drowning the old record of 0.79 set in 1996; records began in 1871.

The 1.73" at Avoca, Pennsylvania yesterday was almost 60% above the old record of 1.13" in 1916; records began in 1901.

Binghamton, New York set a record yesterday with 1.25", nearly doubling the old record of 0.69" in 1956.

Islip, New York set a record of 0.79", beating the old record of 0.64" in 1989. However, Islip records only began in 1986.

The 1.82" at Allentown, Pennsylvania broke the old record of 1.60" set in 1967; records began in 1922.

Mt. Pocono, Pennsylvania set a new record with 2.50", nearly an inch above the old record of 1.59" from 1943; records began in 1901.

Williamsport, Pennsylvania's 1.78" broke the old record of 1.30" in 1959; records began in 1895.

The 2.27" at Harrisburg significantly beat the the old record of 1.40" in 1932; records began in 1888.

Trenton, New Jersey set a new record in a climate history dating back almost a century and a half (since 1865) : 1.77" beat the 1.41" in 1943.

The 2.30" at Washington Dulles more than doubled the old record of 1.12" in 1967, although records only began in 1962.

Blacksburg, Virginia had 1.50", which broke the record of 0.88" in 1959; records began in 1952.

Storm total snowfalls below have been updated through 6 pm, EST.

Original post:
Fed by record-setting moisture amounts, snowfall in northeastern New York and Vermont has ranged up to 30" since Sunday. The daily precipitation of 1.87" at Montpelier was almost triple the old record of 0.68" in 1963.

Here are some double-digit snowfall amounts from the National Weather Service:
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************  

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

..CLINTON COUNTY

PLATTSBURGH 22.0 1100 AM 3/07 CHANNEL 5
MORRISONVILLE 22.0 1100 AM 3/07 PUBLIC

..ESSEX COUNTY

WESTPORT 27.0 930 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
3 N WESTPORT 27.0 911 AM 3/07
1 N LAKE PLACID 23.0 440 PM 3/07 COCORAHS OBSERVER
MORIAH 22.5 909 AM 3/07

..FRANKLIN COUNTY

TUPPER LAKE 29.0 909 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
SARANAC LAKE 29.0 1115 AM 3/07 PUBLIC
CHASM FALLS 26.4 1112 AM 3/07 PUBLIC
WHIPPLEVILLE 17.4 1134 AM 3/07 SPOTTER

VERMONT

..ADDISON COUNTY

BRIDPORT 24.0 100 PM 3/07 SPOTTER
SALISBURY 23.8 541 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
1 WNW ORWELL 23.0 200 PM 3/07 COCORAHS OBSERVER
CORNWALL 22.0 1030 AM 3/07 SPOTTER

..CALEDONIA COUNTY

LYNDONVILLE 21.0 1215 PM 3/07 LYNDON STATE
2 SW SUTTON 19.5 1220 PM 3/07 COOP
ST. JOHNSBURY 17.8 1200 PM 3/07 FAIRBANKS MUSEUM

..CHITTENDEN COUNTY

JERICHO 30.0 1136 AM 3/07 TOWN HIGHWAY
1 ENE NORTH UNDERHIL 26.9 400 PM 3/07 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 NW WESTFORD 26.0 330 PM 3/07 NWS EMPLOYEE
HINESBURG 24.5 400 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO 24.3 350 PM 3/07 NWS OFFICE
JERICHO CENTER 23.5 1019 AM 3/07 GENERAL PUBLIC
1 ESE NASHVILLE 21.6 110 PM 3/07 NWS EMPLOYEE

..FRANKLIN COUNTY

HIGHGATE CENTER 22.5 400 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
SWANTON 22.2 400 PM 3/07 PUBLIC

..LAMOILLE COUNTY

1 ESE PLEASANT VALLE 30.0 400 PM 3/07 SPOTTER
MORRISVILLE 27.5 458 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
STOWE 27.0 1245 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
3 SSE JEFFERSONVILLE 24.0 542 PM 3/07 COOP OBSERVER
2 ESE NORTH HYDE PAR 24.0 531 PM 3/07 COOP
2 S EDEN 22.0 100 PM 3/07 COOP OBSERVER
8 NW STOWE 16.0 600 PM 3/07 MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP

..ORLEANS COUNTY

1 NE NEWPORT 29.0 430 PM 3/07 COOP OBSERVER
2 WNW STANNARD 18.7 500 PM 3/07 SPOTTER

..WASHINGTON COUNTY

2 NNE WATERBURY CENT 25.5 435 PM 3/07 SPOTTER
1 NW EAST WARREN 22.0 500 PM 3/07
MORETOWN 19.0 1020 AM 3/07 SPOTTER
4 ESE MARSHFIELD 18.5 150 PM 3/07 SPOTTER
CABOT 15.0 1230 PM 3/07 PUBLIC
EAST CALAIS 10.5 929 AM 3/07 GENERAL PUBLIC

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Minneapolis Snowfall Update: Second Snowiest Winter (December-February) on Record


Image (click to enlarge): Top 5 cumulative seasonal snowfalls to date vs. 2010-11 at Minneapolis, from National Weather Service

March 22, 11 PM CDT Update: The total storm snowfall of 4" to 7" expected through Wednesday would bring the season's total to 84"-87". This could raise the current season to as high as 4th snowiest in Minneapolis history. A minimum of 1.2" would be necessary to reach 6th place, 4.0" to reach 5th place, and 4.8" to reach 4th place. (The current total to date is 80.2".)

March 9 Update: An additional 0.8" through this morning brings the seasonal total to 79.5", putting it in 7th place, behind the 1961-1962 amount of 81.3".

March 7, Noon CST Update: The storm total of 2.1" through this morning puts the seasonal total in sole possession of 8th place with 78.7".

March 6, Midnight CST Update: The 1.7" of snow on Sunday brings the seasonal total to 78.3", still 0.1" below 8th place 1966-67.
The top 10 seasons are:
1983-1984   98.6                                         
1981-1982 95.0
1950-1951 88.9
1916-1917 84.9
1991-1992 84.1
1961-1962 81.3
1951-1952 79.0
1966-1967 78.4
2010-2011 78.3
2000-2001 75.8
March 6 Update: The overall snow season at Minneapolis extends beyond the meteorological winter months of December-February. For the entire season, the 76.6" to date is in 9th place. The record amount was 98.6" in 1983-84, so it would require nearly 2 feet more in the remainder of March and April in order to break the seasonal record.

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports that the 66.7" of snow for the 2010-11 meteorological winter (December-February) was the second largest amount on record at Minneapolis. The record snowiest winter was in 1966-67, when 71.7" fell. It was also the 4th wettest winter on record. The 4.91" of precipitation was 173% of normal.

The average winter temperature at Minneapolis was 1.6° below normal. As the 58th coldest winter, it was near the middle of the range for the 140-year climate history of Minneapolis. The average daily high temperature was 3.0° below normal (36th coldest), but the average low was only 0.1° below normal.

St. Cloud had its 4th snowiest winter on record with 47.5" of snow, and the 4.35" of precipitation was also the 4th wettest on record.

Here are the Minneapolis extreme warmest, coldest, wettest, and snowiest winters, from the National Weather Service (HDD denotes heating degree days):
                            EXTREME      YEAR     DEPART            RANK
DEC-JAN-FEB MAX 36.3 1878 11.1 WARMEST 1 WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB MAX 13.3 1875 -11.9 COLDEST 1 COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB MIN 21.6 1878 12.6 WARMEST 1 WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB MIN -5.8 1875 -14.8 COLDEST 1 COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB MEAN 29.0 1878 11.7 WARMEST 1 WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB MEAN 3.8 1875 -13.5 COLDEST 1 COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB HDD 3240 1878 -1077 WARMEST 1 WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB HDD 5471 1875 1154 COLDEST 1 COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB PRECIP 9.58 1881 6.75 SNOWIEST 1 WET
DEC-JAN-FEB PRECIP 0.69 1958 -2.14 DRIEST 1 DRY
DEC-JAN-FEB SNOW 71.7 1967 40.0 WETTER 1 WET
DEC-JAN-FEB SNOW 5.2 1944 -26.5 DRIER 1 DRY

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Washington's Winter 2010-11: Stick a Fork In It

With a high temperature of 72° on Monday, February 28, Washington's meteorological winter of 2010-11 ended on a distinctly warm note. The daily high was the 4th one of the month at or above 70°. It was the greatest number of 70° days in February since 1997, when there were also 4. Despite a stretch of 5 consecutive days below average in the second week, the February average temperature of 41.7° was 3.6° above the climatological mean. Although there were 16 days with lows at freezing or below, there were no days with highs below freezing. On average, there are 17 days with lows at or below freezing and 2 such highs.

February is now the 11th month out of the last 14 with above-average temperatures in Washington, following cooler-than-normal readings in December and January. It was the warmest February average since the 42.6° in 2002. Despite the slight dip in December and January, the accumulated temperature departure since January 2010 has rebounded to 30°. Averaged over the 14-month period, that's over 2° above the climatological mean.

For the winter overall, temperatures averaged 0.9° below normal. It was the 3rd consecutive below-average winter in Washington, but 6 out of the 12 winters since 2000 have been above average, and the mean for the century to date is +0.6°.

Despite the relentless pimping of the s-word by certain eyeball-hungry local media outlets, the warm temperatures combined with below-average precipitation of 2.12" to produce a mere 0.5" of snow for the month. The greatest amount in a 24-hour period was 0.2".

As has been noted here in the past, March snow is not unheard of in Washington, with double digit amounts on a few occasions, and the all-time daily record was set as late as the 29th. Nevertheless, the current seasonal total of 9.9" of snow is 28% below the normal amount to date. A snowless March would add about another 10% to that deficit.

Seasonal Outlook

Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.


Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.