European Summer of 2010: Hottest in 500 Years

A statistical study of the extreme European heat wave in the summer of 2010, published in today's issue of Science, indicates that it was the hottest European summer in at least 500 years. AAAS, the publisher of Science, reports:

To put the 2010 heat wave in perspective, the researchers compared it with other temperature anomalies reaching back to 1871, in terms of length, spatial extent and temperature. They say that at least two summers in this decade—2003 and 2010—have most likely been the warmest of the last 510 years in Europe.

"During the 2001-2010 decade, 500-year long records were broken over approximately 65% of Europe, including eastern Europe, southwestern-central Europe, the Balkans and Turkey," they report.

The chart above shows a statistical distribution of the European summer temperature departures from the 1970-1999 base period. Each year from 1500 to 2010 is shown as a vertical line, with the 5 coldest and 5 warmest summers highlighted and labeled. The gray line shows the frequency distribution from 1500 through 2002, with a Gaussian (random) distribution fitted to the data in black. The lower chart shows the distribution of extreme summers (95th percentile or higher) per decade. Note the huge spike upward for decades ending in the current century.

Former NOAA Administrator: "Bleak Assessment"

Former NOAA Administrator D. James Baker wrote the following letter published in the March 7 issue of The New Yorker:

Hendrik Hertzberg’s bleak assessment of American climate policy is on the mark, and should be viewed in the context of an even bleaker global scene, in which China and India will continue their rapid economic growth and accompanying emissions (Comment, February 7th). History shows that changes in energy-capital infrastructure take decades; barring a technical miracle, the concentration of greenhouse gases will likely double or triple by the end of the century, bringing a new and inhospitable planet Earth, rife with extreme weather and other climate disruptions. We should do everything we can to produce green and carbon-free economies while at the same time recognizing that there must be a major effort to adapt to this new Earth. It can be done, but it won’t be easy. The ineffective response to Hurricane Katrina shows that even the most developed countries are unable to respond well to extremes of weather. If that is the best we can do, we have much to learn about how to be prepared for the new climate.

Baker was NOAA Administrator from May 1993 to January 2001. According to his biography (scroll down):

Dr. Baker received his B.S. from Stanford University, and holds a PhD in experimental physics from Cornell University. He has held faculty positions at numerous prestigious research universities, and is the founding President of the Oceanography Society. Author of Planet Earth: The View from Space, Dr. Baker has written more than 100 articles on climate, oceanography, space technology, natural resource management and sustainable development.

Record Moisture Fuels Massive Northeast Snowfall; Update: Precipitation Records Smashed from DC to New England

6 PM Update: The 1.17" of precipitation at Burlington today exceeded the old record of 0.91" in 1922 by 30%. Burlington climate records began in 1884. The 1.09" which fell yesterday was only slightly short of the record 1.17" set in 1920.

Although Concord, New Hampshire had only a trace of snow, the precipitation of 1.50" broke by almost 50% the old record for March 7 of 1.03" set in 1926. Concord climate records date back to 1871.

Portland, Maine also had a trace of snow, but the 2.09" of precipitation beat the old record of 1.56" set in 1923.

Hartford's 1.50" broke the old record of 1.39" set in 1967; records began 1904. Hartford also had 2.22" the previous day; the record is 2.48" in 1979.

Watertown, New York set a record of 0.92" on Saturday (March 5).

Buffalo also set a record on the 5th with 1.33", drowning the old record of 0.79 set in 1996; records began in 1871.

The 1.73" at Avoca, Pennsylvania yesterday was almost 60% above the old record of 1.13" in 1916; records began in 1901.

Binghamton, New York set a record yesterday with 1.25", nearly doubling the old record of 0.69" in 1956.

Islip, New York set a record of 0.79", beating the old record of 0.64" in 1989. However, Islip records only began in 1986.

The 1.82" at Allentown, Pennsylvania broke the old record of 1.60" set in 1967; records began in 1922.

Mt. Pocono, Pennsylvania set a new record with 2.50", nearly an inch above the old record of 1.59" from 1943; records began in 1901.

Williamsport, Pennsylvania's 1.78" broke the old record of 1.30" in 1959; records began in 1895.

The 2.27" at Harrisburg significantly beat the the old record of 1.40" in 1932; records began in 1888.

Trenton, New Jersey set a new record in a climate history dating back almost a century and a half (since 1865) : 1.77" beat the 1.41" in 1943.

The 2.30" at Washington Dulles more than doubled the old record of 1.12" in 1967, although records only began in 1962.

Blacksburg, Virginia had 1.50", which broke the record of 0.88" in 1959; records began in 1952.

Storm total snowfalls below have been updated through 6 pm, EST.

Original post:
Fed by record-setting moisture amounts, snowfall in northeastern New York and Vermont has ranged up to 30" since Sunday. The daily precipitation of 1.87" at Montpelier was almost triple the old record of 0.68" in 1963.

Here are some double-digit snowfall amounts from the National Weather Service:

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************  
  
LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                     
                     SNOWFALL           OF   
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT  
  
NEW YORK  
   
..CLINTON COUNTY  
  
   PLATTSBURGH           22.0  1100 AM  3/07  CHANNEL 5                 
   MORRISONVILLE         22.0  1100 AM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   
..ESSEX COUNTY  
  
   WESTPORT              27.0   930 AM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   3 N WESTPORT          27.0   911 AM  3/07                            
   1 N LAKE PLACID       23.0   440 PM  3/07  COCORAHS OBSERVER         
   MORIAH                22.5   909 AM  3/07                            
   
..FRANKLIN COUNTY  
  
   TUPPER LAKE           29.0   909 AM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   SARANAC LAKE          29.0  1115 AM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   CHASM FALLS           26.4  1112 AM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   WHIPPLEVILLE          17.4  1134 AM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
  
VERMONT  
   
..ADDISON COUNTY  
  
   BRIDPORT              24.0   100 PM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   SALISBURY             23.8   541 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   1 WNW ORWELL          23.0   200 PM  3/07  COCORAHS OBSERVER         
   CORNWALL              22.0  1030 AM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   
..CALEDONIA COUNTY  
  
   LYNDONVILLE           21.0  1215 PM  3/07  LYNDON STATE              
   2 SW SUTTON           19.5  1220 PM  3/07  COOP                      
   ST. JOHNSBURY         17.8  1200 PM  3/07  FAIRBANKS MUSEUM          
   
..CHITTENDEN COUNTY  
  
   JERICHO               30.0  1136 AM  3/07  TOWN HIGHWAY              
   1 ENE NORTH UNDERHIL  26.9   400 PM  3/07  NWS EMPLOYEE              
   2 NW WESTFORD         26.0   330 PM  3/07  NWS EMPLOYEE              
   HINESBURG             24.5   400 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO  24.3   350 PM  3/07  NWS OFFICE                
   JERICHO CENTER        23.5  1019 AM  3/07  GENERAL PUBLIC            
   1 ESE NASHVILLE       21.6   110 PM  3/07  NWS EMPLOYEE              
   
..FRANKLIN COUNTY  
  
   HIGHGATE CENTER       22.5   400 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   SWANTON               22.2   400 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   
..LAMOILLE COUNTY  
  
   1 ESE PLEASANT VALLE  30.0   400 PM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   MORRISVILLE           27.5   458 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   STOWE                 27.0  1245 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   3 SSE JEFFERSONVILLE  24.0   542 PM  3/07  COOP OBSERVER             
   2 ESE NORTH HYDE PAR  24.0   531 PM  3/07  COOP                      
   2 S EDEN              22.0   100 PM  3/07  COOP OBSERVER             
   8 NW STOWE            16.0   600 PM  3/07  MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP      
   
..ORLEANS COUNTY  
  
   1 NE NEWPORT          29.0   430 PM  3/07  COOP OBSERVER             
   2 WNW STANNARD        18.7   500 PM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   
..WASHINGTON COUNTY  
  
   2 NNE WATERBURY CENT  25.5   435 PM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   1 NW EAST WARREN      22.0   500 PM  3/07                            
   MORETOWN              19.0  1020 AM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   4 ESE MARSHFIELD      18.5   150 PM  3/07  SPOTTER                   
   CABOT                 15.0  1230 PM  3/07  PUBLIC                    
   EAST CALAIS           10.5   929 AM  3/07  GENERAL PUBLIC              

Minneapolis Snowfall Update: Second Snowiest Winter (December-February) on Record

Image (click to enlarge): Top 5 cumulative seasonal snowfalls to date vs. 2010-11 at Minneapolis, from National Weather Service

March 22, 11 PM CDT Update: The total storm snowfall of 4" to 7" expected through Wednesday would bring the season's total to 84"-87". This could raise the current season to as high as 4th snowiest in Minneapolis history. A minimum of 1.2" would be necessary to reach 6th place, 4.0" to reach 5th place, and 4.8" to reach 4th place. (The current total to date is 80.2".)

March 9 Update: An additional 0.8" through this morning brings the seasonal total to 79.5", putting it in 7th place, behind the 1961-1962 amount of 81.3".

March 7, Noon CST Update: The storm total of 2.1" through this morning puts the seasonal total in sole possession of 8th place with 78.7".

March 6, Midnight CST Update: The 1.7" of snow on Sunday brings the seasonal total to 78.3", still 0.1" below 8th place 1966-67.
The top 10 seasons are:

1983-1984   98.6                                         
1981-1982   95.0                                         
1950-1951   88.9                                         
1916-1917   84.9                                         
1991-1992   84.1                                         
1961-1962   81.3                                         
1951-1952   79.0                                         
1966-1967   78.4                                         
2010-2011   78.3                       
2000-2001   75.8  

March 6 Update: The overall snow season at Minneapolis extends beyond the meteorological winter months of December-February. For the entire season, the 76.6" to date is in 9th place. The record amount was 98.6" in 1983-84, so it would require nearly 2 feet more in the remainder of March and April in order to break the seasonal record.

Original post:
The National Weather Service reports that the 66.7" of snow for the 2010-11 meteorological winter (December-February) was the second largest amount on record at Minneapolis. The record snowiest winter was in 1966-67, when 71.7" fell. It was also the 4th wettest winter on record. The 4.91" of precipitation was 173% of normal.

The average winter temperature at Minneapolis was 1.6° below normal. As the 58th coldest winter, it was near the middle of the range for the 140-year climate history of Minneapolis. The average daily high temperature was 3.0° below normal (36th coldest), but the average low was only 0.1° below normal.

St. Cloud had its 4th snowiest winter on record with 47.5" of snow, and the 4.35" of precipitation was also the 4th wettest on record.

Here are the Minneapolis extreme warmest, coldest, wettest, and snowiest winters, from the National Weather Service (HDD denotes heating degree days):

                            EXTREME      YEAR     DEPART            RANK
DEC-JAN-FEB       MAX          36.3      1878      11.1   WARMEST     1  WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB       MAX          13.3      1875     -11.9   COLDEST     1  COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB       MIN          21.6      1878      12.6   WARMEST     1  WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB       MIN          -5.8      1875     -14.8   COLDEST     1  COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB       MEAN         29.0      1878      11.7   WARMEST     1  WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB       MEAN         3.8       1875     -13.5   COLDEST     1  COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB       HDD          3240      1878     -1077   WARMEST     1  WARM
DEC-JAN-FEB       HDD          5471      1875      1154   COLDEST     1  COLD
DEC-JAN-FEB       PRECIP       9.58      1881      6.75   SNOWIEST    1  WET
DEC-JAN-FEB       PRECIP       0.69      1958     -2.14   DRIEST      1  DRY
DEC-JAN-FEB       SNOW         71.7      1967      40.0   WETTER      1  WET
DEC-JAN-FEB       SNOW         5.2       1944     -26.5   DRIER       1  DRY  

Washington's Winter 2010-11: Stick a Fork In It

With a high temperature of 72° on Monday, February 28, Washington's meteorological winter of 2010-11 ended on a distinctly warm note. The daily high was the 4th one of the month at or above 70°. It was the greatest number of 70° days in February since 1997, when there were also 4. Despite a stretch of 5 consecutive days below average in the second week, the February average temperature of 41.7° was 3.6° above the climatological mean. Although there were 16 days with lows at freezing or below, there were no days with highs below freezing. On average, there are 17 days with lows at or below freezing and 2 such highs.

February is now the 11th month out of the last 14 with above-average temperatures in Washington, following cooler-than-normal readings in December and January. It was the warmest February average since the 42.6° in 2002. Despite the slight dip in December and January, the accumulated temperature departure since January 2010 has rebounded to 30°. Averaged over the 14-month period, that's over 2° above the climatological mean.

For the winter overall, temperatures averaged 0.9° below normal. It was the 3rd consecutive below-average winter in Washington, but 6 out of the 12 winters since 2000 have been above average, and the mean for the century to date is +0.6°.

Despite the relentless pimping of the s-word by certain eyeball-hungry local media outlets, the warm temperatures combined with below-average precipitation of 2.12" to produce a mere 0.5" of snow for the month. The greatest amount in a 24-hour period was 0.2".

As has been noted here in the past, March snow is not unheard of in Washington, with double digit amounts on a few occasions, and the all-time daily record was set as late as the 29th. Nevertheless, the current seasonal total of 9.9" of snow is 28% below the normal amount to date. A snowless March would add about another 10% to that deficit.

San Francisco Snow? (Would Be) Fifth Occurrence in Last Century Update: No SFO Snow, 1976 Record Holds

Feb. 28 Update: Other than a few flurries, snow failed to materialize in San Francisco. The National Weather Service reports:

As it turns out, a few showers did linger during the early morning hours of February 26th to allow for snow all the way down to sea level. However, only trace snowfall was reported around San Francisco. Therefore the last measurable snowfall in San Francisco still remains 1976. Farther south toward Monterey, light snowfall dustings were also reported. Higher peaks above approximately 2000 feet received more measurable snowfall with a few inches, which is not unusual for this time of year. The overall airmass remained rather unstable during the afternoon of February 26th which resulted in convective rain and snow showers across the region. Several weather spotters reported snow down to sea level once again, but no accumulation was noted.

1:30 PM PST Update: (Headline modified to clarify event is only a possibility.) The latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service confirms that measurable snow is unlikely below elevations of 500 feet:

 AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS. THE NORTH BAY
 MOUNTAINS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LATER THIS MORNING INTO
 THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL END BY
 LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE. THERE COULD BE LIGHT
 RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT...WITH SAN FRANCISCO POSSIBLY SEEING SOME
 SNOWFLAKES OVERNIGHT...BUT NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE
 THE MAIN AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
 WILL BE THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST BAY HILLS SOUTH...AND
 SOUTH OF THE SANTA CLARA VALLEY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. 

Note to Ice Agers: The average change in temperature with height is 5.38°F/1,000 Ft, more when the air is especially cold aloft as in the current situation, so snowfall in the hills doesn't count for any records.

Meanwhile, very heavy rainfall rates have been reported this morning from the storm. A downpour in northeastern San Francisco recorded 0.11" of rain in 5 minutes, a rate of over 1" per hour. Over 2" were reported in 24 hours west of Cupertino.

Original post:
A strong upper-level low pressure area is bringing cold temperatures to the San Francisco Bay area and prompting the National Weather Service to issue a winter weather advisory for elevations above 1000 feet in the North Bay area:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST
 FRIDAY. 
 
 * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 1 INCH 1000 TO 1500 FEET WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
   ABOVE 1500 FEET. 6 INCHES OR MORE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.
 
 * ELEVATION: HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ABOVE 1500 FEET BUT
   ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AS LOW AS 1000 FEET.
 
 * TIMING: A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
   CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SNOW LEVELS DROP. STEADY PRECIPITATION
   WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY FRIDAY MORNING.  

If measurable snow were to occur at sea level, it would be only the 5th such occurrence in the past century, according to Golden Gate Weather Services. Unofficial reports indicate that there were 7 such events in the second half of the 19th century.

H/T: NCAR AtmosNews

Minneapolis Sets Single-Storm Snowfall Record

Images (click to enlarge): Feb. 20-21, 2011 total snowfall amounts for metro Minneapolis and for surrounding southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, from National Weather Service

The 13.8" of snow on February 20-21 in Minneapolis was the largest amount for a single storm in February. It was also the first time more than a foot of snow fell in a single February storm. Some nearby locations reported amounts up to 20".

Of the top 5 February storm totals at Minneapolis, 3 have now occurred in the last 7 years. Climate records at Minneapolis have been collected for 140 years (since 1871).

From the National Weather Service:

Top 5 February Snow Storms for the Twin Cities
1) Feb. 20-21 2011    13.8"
2) Feb. 1-3 2004      11.2"
3) Feb. 19-20 1952    10.5"
4) Feb. 22 1913        8.8"
5) Feb. 24-25 2007     8.7"  

The winter snowfall total of 74.9" to date at Minneapolis is now the 10th highest on record for a full season, but it's the 3rd highest to date. The record seasonal total was 98.6" in 1983-84.

The NWS points out that February on average is the least snowiest winter month in Minneapolis. The reason for this is that the upper Midwest is usually dominated by cold high pressure areas in mid-winter. These tend to be relatively dry, and they suppress the prevailing storm track to the south. Except for a stretch of several days in which temperatures failed to rise out of the single digits, this February has been relatively warm at Minneapolis. Through the first 3 weeks, the month has averaged 1.1° above the long-term climatological mean.

Here are some reports of double-digit snow totals from southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

20.00   MADISON                  MN  LAC QUI PARLE    0830 PM
19.60   BLOOMINGTON              MN  HENNEPIN         0825 PM
19.00   3 NW EDEN PRAIRIE        MN  HENNEPIN         0515 PM
18.00   CREDIT RIVER             MN  SCOTT            0937 PM
18.00   BURNSVILLE               MN  DAKOTA           0519 PM
17.50   SPRINGFIELD              MN  BROWN            0840 AM
16.30   1 SSW MONTEVIDEO         MN  CHIPPEWA         0700 AM
15.50   2 W PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0900 AM
15.10   LAKEVILLE                MN  DAKOTA           0814 PM
15.10   RICHFIELD                MN  HENNEPIN         0820 PM
15.00   OSCEOLA                  WI  POLK             0500 PM
15.00   MENOMONIE                WI  DUNN             0552 PM
15.00   3 SSW BURNSVILLE         MN  DAKOTA           0845 AM
14.20   1 N PRIOR LAKE           MN  SCOTT            0930 PM
14.00   INVER GROVE HEIGHTS      MN  DAKOTA           1002 PM
14.00   WOODBURY                 MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
14.00   EDEN PRAIRIE             MN  HENNEPIN         0809 PM
14.00   RED WING                 MN  GOODHUE          0730 PM
13.60   ANDOVER                  MN  ANOKA            1024 PM
13.50   MAPLEWOOD                MN  RAMSEY           1210 PM
13.80   MINNEAPOLIS(MSP AIRPORT) MN  HENNEPIN         1240 AM
13.70   CHANHASSEN (NWS OFFICE)  MN  CARVER           1240 AM
13.30   ST PAUL                  MN  RAMSEY           0610 AM
13.00   GRANITE FALLS            MN  CHIPPEWA         1013 AM
12.90   3 WNW RICE               MN  STEARNS          0700 AM
12.70   EDINA                    MN  HENNEPIN         0203 PM
12.70   1 NW BURNSVILLE          MN  DAKOTA           0700 PM
12.60   COON RAPIDS              MN  ANOKA            0638 PM
12.50   CARVER                   MN  CARVER           0700 AM
12.40   HASTINGS                 MN  DAKOTA           0907 PM
12.40   ROBERTS                  WI  ST. CROIX        0800 AM
12.30   5 SW ST PAUL             MN  RAMSEY           0845 AM
12.00   1 N CAMERON              WI  BARRON           0500 PM
12.00   MANKATO                  MN  BLUE EARTH       0333 PM
12.00   LAKE ELMO                MN  WASHINGTON       0800 AM
12.00   3 N BLOOMER              WI  CHIPPEWA         0730 AM
12.00   BALDWIN                  WI  ST. CROIX        0700 AM
12.00   3 SW MINNEAPOLIS         MN  HENNEPIN         0900 PM
12.00   SHAKOPEE                 MN  SCOTT            0854 PM
11.60   JORDAN                   MN  SCOTT            0710 AM
11.50   MILROY                   MN  REDWOOD          0700 AM
11.10   BLAINE                   MN  ANOKA            0917 PM
11.00   DURAND                   WI  PEPIN            1000 PM
11.00   SAUK RAPIDS              MN  BENTON           0800 PM
11.00   MORGAN                   MN  REDWOOD          0702 AM
11.00   4 NNE MAPLEWOOD          MN  RAMSEY           0830 PM
11.00   1 ESE CHASKA             MN  CARVER           0800 PM
10.60   3 NNW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0346 PM
10.60   MINNETONKA               MN  HENNEPIN         0803 AM
10.50   CLAYTON                  WI  POLK             0616 PM
10.50   LITCHFIELD               MN  MEEKER           0420 PM
10.50   ELK MOUND                WI  DUNN             0600 AM
10.50   REDWOOD FALLS            MN  REDWOOD          0500 AM
10.30   7 S HILLMAN              MN  MORRISON         0335 PM
10.20   OAKDALE                  MN  WASHINGTON       0747 PM
10.00   GLENWOOD                 MN  POPE             0600 PM
10.00   ST JAMES                 MN  WATONWAN         0700 PM
10.00   MADELIA                  MN  WATONWAN         1245 PM
10.00   COMFREY                  MN  BROWN            1210 PM
10.00   BROWNTON                 MN  MCLEOD           1210 PM
10.00   NW GILMAN                MN  BENTON           0828 AM
10.00   ISANTI                   MN  ISANTI           0626 AM
10.00   EAU CLAIRE WQOW          WI  EAU CLAIRE       0500 AM
10.00   2 N MENOMONIE            WI  DUNN             1100 PM
10.00   1 W CARVER               MN  CARVER           0900 PM
10.00   4 SSW MINNEAPOLIS        MN  HENNEPIN         0700 PM
10.00   ST PETER                 MN  NICOLLET         0530 PM