Southeast Swelters, Records Wrecked High Temperature Extremes in Florida, Georgia, S. Carolina

Images (click to enlarge): Daily high temperatures for (top to bottom) June 15, 14, and 13 from Unisys

June 16 Update: Additional records reported by the National Climatic Data Center:

June 15
Macon GA           100 (99, 1963)
Athens GA           98 (97, 2000)
Columbia SC        101 (100, 1981)
 
June 14
Atlanta/Fulton GA   96 (93, 2005)
Charleston SC       99 (97, 2002)
Greenville SC       96 (tie, 2000)

June 13
N. Myrtle Beach SC  96 (95, 1998) 

Original post:
Summer heat has made an early start in the southeastern U.S., where high temperature records were widespread for the last several days. Among the records tied or broken (old record and date in parentheses):

June 15
Miami FL            94 (tie, 2009)
Orlando FL          98 (97, 1998)
Gainesville FL      99 (tie, 1909)
Jacksonville FL    102 (tie, 1981)
Apalachicola FL     94 (tie, 1981)
Tallahassee FL      99 (tie, 1998)
Augusta GA         104 (100, 1971)
N. Myrtle Beach SC  98 (95, 2005)

June 14
Orlando FL          99 (tie, 1977)
St. Simons GA       99 (tie, 1963)
Apalachicola FL     95 (94, 2009)
Savannah GA        102 (100, 1921)
N. Charleston SC    99 (97, 2002)
Augusta GA         103 (101, 2000)
N. Myrtle Beach SC  98 (93, 1989)

June 13
Sarasota FL         96 (tie, 1998)
Tampa FL            96 (95, 1977)
St. Petersburg FL   97 (95, 1977)
Apalachicola FL     96 (95, 1977)
Tallahassee FL     101 (tie, 1998)
Greenville SC       96 (tie, 1958)
Asheville NC        90 (tie, 1958)
Augusta GA         101 (100, 1958) 

Oklahoma City Paralyzed By Flash Floods All-Time Daily Rainfall Record Broken

See here for other heavy rainfall posts.

June 15 AM Update: The final daily rainfall for Oklahoma City is 7.62". This breaks the all-time daily rainfall record for any day in any month. The old record was 7.53" on Sept. 22, 1970.

Midnight Update: Another 0.05" fell in the remainder of the 11:00 hour, plus 0.11" ending at midnight. The estimated total is now 7.35" with one more hour remaining (daily records are kept on standard time).

Late PM Update: Another round of heavy thunderstorms this evening has added to the total: 0.12" through 7 pm CDT, then 0.89" more by 10:25, with a moderate thunderstorm continuing. This brings the unofficial (and incomplete) daily total to 7.19", easily breaking the all-time June daily record by close to half an inch (see below).

1 PM CDT Update: An additional 0.19" fell in the hour ending at 1:00, bringing the 6-hour total to 3.94" and the daily total to 6.18". Highest daily totals in the area are now over 10".

More thunderstorms are moving into central Oklahoma with heavy rain likely between 3 and 4 pm.

Original post:
The Oklahoma City metro area this morning joined the list of major cities smashing rainfall records in the last several years. As of 11 am CDT, the 5.88" so far today has blown past the previous June 14 record of 3.95" in 1930. Rain continues to fall, although at a lower rate; 0.17" fell in the hour ending at noon CDT.

The all-time June daily record is 6.75" on June 3, 1932. Weather records in Oklahoma City extend back to 1890. Rainfall amounts in the region range as high as nearly 9".

Local TV station KOCO is reporting portions of several interstate highways have been flooded.

Images (click to enlarge): Oklahoma City area rainfall from National Weather Service

Science Beats Ideology by 3% U.S. Senate Narrowly Defeats Murkowski Murky Air Resolution

Within the last hour, by a 3-vote margin, the U.S. Senate has defeated a resolution by Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska which attempted to override the Environmental Protection Agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act. The vote, 47-53, was almost exclusively along party lines. The only 6 Democrats voting in the affirmative were:

• Bayh (D-IN)
• Landrieu (D-LA)
• Lincoln (D-AR)
• Nelson (D-NE)
• Pryor (D-AR)
• Rockefeller (D-WV)

Not one single Republican voted against.

Video of the debate and vote is at CSPAN.

In an editorial today, the WaPo said "attempting to strip the agency of its authority to regulate is premature."

FairGate: Climate Denialist Echosphere Exploits Hoax on Fourth-Grader

June 9 PM Update: The Beeville Bee-Picayune has concluded its exhaustive investigation and within the last hour or so has published the results:
It’s a hoax

Credit is given to an "overwhelming number of bloggers in the online science community." Regarding the possible origin of the fraud, the article says, "Some suspicions have arisen about Julisa’s father, Dr. [sic] J.R. Castillo, a local engineer and musician." The commentariat at Reddit have some more specific ideas.

Original post:
A story appearing online Saturday claimed that a Beeville, Texas fourth-grader, Julisa Castillo, had been "named junior division champion for the 2010 National Science Fair" for a project called "Disproving Global Warming". This was immediately spread uncritically around the climate-denial echosphere and featured prominently at climate swift-boat headquarters, Climate Depot. Currently, a Google search of "julisa castillo" + "science fair" yields 399 hits.

Unfortunately for the denial-mongers the entire story was a hoax. Blogger Michael Tobis of Only In It For the Gold yesterday drove the 3 hours to Beeville to investigate for himself. MT found that the letter purporting to be from an L.L. Slakey at the National Science Foundation announcing the award had several very troubling aspects (details here). Furthermore, the National Science Foundation does not sponsor a "National Science Fair". Although there is an Intel International Science and Engineering Fair, it is aimed at students in grades 9-12.

Upon inquiry from MT, the NSF responded, "The letter is not authentic, Linda [Slakey] had no knowledge of it, and it amounts to fraudulent use of our name and logo." The NSF has referred the matter to its Office of Inspector General for investigation.

Although Climate Depot has posted an update ("4th-Grade Skeptical Climate Science 'winner' revealed as hoax!"), as of now the Google search "julisa castillo" + "science fair" + correction has only 3 hits, none of which are actual corrections.

More commentary at Wonk Room:
Marc Morano Promotes Climate Denial Hoax Against Fourth Grader

Image: Climate Depot screen capture from Wonk Room

Gulf Gusher: Worst Case Scenario

From xkcd (click to enlarge):

Model Simulates Likely Spread of BP Gulf Oil Into Atlantic

A study released today by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) shows that oil spreading from the massive BP gusher in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to move around Florida, along the southeast U.S. coast, and into the western Atlantic. The computer modeling is not a specific forecast, but it shows the likely flow based on average ocean currents in the region. The 6 simulations which were run provide an "envelope of possible scenarios for the oil dispersal." One of these is shown below:



Description from NCAR:

This animation shows one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to green (most diluted). The dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot; rather, it depicts how much of the total oil from the source that will be carried elsewhere by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.
The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios released today that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf. The full set of six simulations can be found here. (Visualization by Tim Scheitlin and Rick Brownrigg, NCAR; based on model simulations.)

2010 Hurricane Outlook: Heckuva Season, Brownie!

The 2010 hurricane season outlook, released this morning by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, calls for an 85% chance of above-average tropical activity. This would make the upcoming season the busiest since the record year of 2005, which had 28 named storms. NOAA Administrator Dr. Jane Lubchenco said, "If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record." The forecast includes a 70% probability of the following ranges (historical averages in the middle and right columns):

	Forecast	Long-term	1995-2009
Named Storms	14-23	11	14.5
Hurricanes	8-14	6	8
Major Hurricanes	3-7	2	4

The major factors expected to produce the high level of tropical activity are:

• Favorable upper level winds: Wind shear (change in wind with height) is expected to be low since the El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific have dissipated.
• Warm sea surface temperatures: Atlantic Ocean temperatures are at record high levels, as much as 4° above average.
• Continuing high activity era: Eight of the 15 seasons since 1995 are in the top 10 list for named storms.

As far as storm landfalls are concerned, NOAA's outlook says that "it is currently not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling hurricanes at these extended ranges, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season."

Weather Channel video report on the hurricane season outlook is here:



Possible impacts of the hurricane season on oil and natural gas prices were discussed within the past hour on CNBC:



From Reuters:
US govt warns of worst hurricane season since 2005

From Palm Beach Post Eye on the Storm blog, including a video clip of the NOAA announcement:
Another prediction of a “really bad season”