After previously declaring carbon cap and trade legislation DOA, CNBC's John Harwood this afternoon discussed its future prospects. The Waxman-Markey climate bill emerged last night from marathon sessions of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in a largely party-line vote.
Meanwhile, WaPo's business columnist Steven Pearlstein complains:
Climate-Change Bill Hits Some of the Right Notes but Botches the Refrain
Despite the charges made by many opponents of excessive cost, the NYT's Green, Inc. reports on a study that finds much of the revenue would be returned to consumers:
Climate Bill Would Generate $750 Billion for Consumers, Study Finds
Friday, May 22, 2009
Thursday, May 21, 2009
NOAA Issues 2009 Hurricane Outlook:
Near Average in Atlantic, Near to Below in Eastern Pacific
PM Update: Natural gas prices finished the day down over 9%.
Original post:
NOAA this morning issued the initial 2009 hurricane season outlook. The forecast calls for near average storm activity in the Atlantic and near to below average in the eastern Pacific. For the Atlantic, the probability is 50% for near average and 25% each for above or below average. In terms of number of storms, this represents a 70% chance for 9 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 of which could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major storms. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the seasonal outlook is influenced by several conflicting climate effects:
Supporting more activity this season are conditions associated with the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, which include enhanced rainfall over West Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear. But activity could be reduced if El Nino develops in the equatorial Eastern Pacific this summer or if ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic remain cooler than normal.In the eastern Pacific, the outlook expects an 80% chance of a near to below normal season. There is a 70% chance of storm activity in the range of: 13- 18 named storms, 6- 10 hurricanes, 2- 5 major hurricanes.
Image (click to enlarge): 2009 hurricane season outlook from NOAA
With oil up 35% year to date to a 6-month high, CNBC earlier today explored the influence of the storm season and other factors on the price of oil going forward (video below). In the short term, the better than expected hurricane forecast, higher than normal inventories, a falling dollar in the face of over $100 billion in Treasury debt to be issued next week, and a dropping stock market are being credited for a decline in natural gas prices of as much as 8% today.
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Economic Impacts of Auto Mileage and Emission Standards
On this morning's CNBC Squawk on the Street, Carol Browner, assistant to President Obama for energy/climate change, explains the business impacts of today's proposed fuel economy and emissions standards to honking SUV driver Mark Haines (video below).
Image (click to enlarge): Proposed vs. existing vehicle fuel economy standards from New York Times
Record Mid Atlantic Cold
New Lows Also in New England
Image (click to enlarge): Surface temperatures at 6 am May 19 from Unisys Midnight update: Added records for West Virginia, Delaware, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, and Maine.
PM Update: At least one additional low temperature record has been reported in Maryland, two in Virginia, one in North Carolina, three in West Virginia, one in Delaware, two in Pennsylvania, one in New York, and one in Connecticut for May 19:
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES WAS SET AT SALISBURY MD THISA record low maximum was set May 18 in South Carolina:
MORNING. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 DEGREES SET IN 2002.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 37 DEGREES FOR MAY 19TH AT ROANOKE VIRGINIA
WILL SET A RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 39 DEGREES IN
1994.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE OF 38 DEGREES FOR MAY 19TH AT DANVILLE VIRGINIA
WILL SET A RECORD FOR THIS DATE. THE PRIOR RECORD WAS 40 DEGREES IN
1973.
THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT THE CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
THIS MORNING WAS 40 DEGREES. THIS IS A NEW RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW FOR THIS DATE WAS 41 DEGREES
WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1976. RECORDS GO BACK TO 1879.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES WAS SET AT MARTINSBURG WV TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 37 SET BACK IN 2002.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 28 DEGREES WAS SET AT ELKINS WV TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 31 SET IN 2002.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 35 DEGREES AT CHARLESTON WV TODAY TIED
THE OLD RECORD OF 35 SET IN 2002.
THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO 37 DEGREES AT THE NEW CASTLE COUNTY AIRPORT
EARLY THIS MORNING, ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE
PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 19 WAS 39 DEGREES SET IN
2003.
THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO 32 DEGREES AT THE LEHIGH VALLEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING, ESTABLISHING A NEW RECORD
FOR THE DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 19 WAS 35
DEGREES SET IN 1973 AND 2002.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 30 DEGREES WAS SET AT AVOCA PA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 32 SET IN 2002.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 32 SET IN 1944.
THIS MORNINGS LOW OF 34 DEGREES AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SET
A RECORD LOW FOR MAY 19. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 35 DEGREES SET IN
2002 AND PREVIOUS YEARS. RECORDS IN THE HARTFORD AREA DATE BACK TO
1905.
A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 32 DEGREES WAS SET AT BANGOR MAINE THIS
MORNING. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 32 SET IN 1991.
A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 63 DEGREES WAS SET IN FLORENCE
SC YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET IN 1973.
Original post:
Under clear skies, calm winds, and low humidity, low temperatures in the Mid Atlantic area were near or below daily records this morning. At BWI Airport, the low of 38° was 1° below the Baltimore record for May 19 set in 2003.
The low at Washington National of 45° was within 2° of the record for the date of 43° set in 1976. The low of 38° at Dulles Airport was likewise 2° above its record, which was set in 2002.
At Washington National, the record low of 43° for the date was set in 1976. Only 2 daily lows for May have been set in the last 30 years, in 1986 and 2002. In all, only 8 of the current daily record lows for May have been set in the last 50 years. The all-time low for the month in Washington of 33° was set in 1906.
Elsewhere in the Mid Atlantic region, the National Weather Service reports:
THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO 37 DEGREES AT THE TRENTON MERCER COUNTY
AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING, EQUALING THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 19 IS 37 DEGREES PREVIOUSLY SET IN
2002 AND 2003.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Record Early Season Heat in California, Southwest
Images (click to enlarge): U.S. surface temperature at 3 pm PDT May 17 from Unisys, California surface observations (temperature in red) at 3 pm PDT May 17 from College of DuPage PM Update, 6:00 PDT: Record heat has reached as close to the coast as Oakland and San Francisco International Airport. Some National Weather Service record reports for May 17:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 DEGREES WAS SET AT MONTAGUE CA
TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 2008.
SITE TODAY'S HIGH PREVIOUS HIGH / YEAR
---- ------------ --------------------
SFO INTERNATIONAL 93(TIED) 93 / 1997
OAKLAND AIRPORT 91 86 / 1978
LIVERMORE CO-OP 103 99 / 1997
GILROY 103 101 / 1997
KING CITY 100 99 / 1997
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANDBERG TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 89 SET IN 2006.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 DEGREES WAS SET AT PALMDALE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 DEGREES SET IN 2008.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 DEGREES WAS SET AT LANCASTER TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 102 DEGREES SET IN 1954.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 106 DEGREES WAS SET AT PASO ROBLES
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 103 DEGREES SET IN 2008.
LOCATION TEMP TODAY PREVIOUS RECORD AND YEAR
LAS VEGAS NV 102 102 DEGREES IN 1970
BISHOP CA 97 97 DEGREES IN 2008
BARSTOW-DAGGETT CA 105 103 DEGREES IN 2006
THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE RECORD HIGHS WHICH WERE SET IN CENTRAL
NEVADA TODAY THROUGH 5PM:
AIRPORT NEW RECORD OLD RECORD DATES
ELY 84 84 2008, 1904, 1901
EUREKA 87 87 2008
..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MAY 17 2009
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2009) 99 97 IN 2003
FLAGSTAFF (1899 - 2009) 82 82 (TIED) IN 1970
PAGE (1958 - 2009) 92 92 (TIED) IN 2006
SPRINGERVILLE (1911 - 2009) 85 83 IN 2003
WINSLOW (1893 - 2009) 93 93 (TIED) IN 1970
Original post:
Triple digit heat in the interior of central and southern California and the desert Southwest by mid afternoon today continued to threaten early season temperature records. Preliminary reports from the National Weather Service indicate the following records were set Saturday:
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES WAS SET AT SANDBERG TODAY.The following record has already been set on Sunday:
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 2008.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT PALMDALE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 97 DEGREES SET IN 2006.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 101 DEGREES WAS SET AT LANCASTER TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 98 DEGREES SET IN 2006.
A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 105 DEGREES WAS SET AT PASO ROBLES
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 102 DEGREES SET IN 1970.
RECORD TYPE CITY OLD RECORD TODAY'S TEMP
HIGH MIN TEMP BISHOP 54F IN 2002 56F
HIGH MAX TEMP BISHOP 93F IN 1965 94F
HIGH MAX TEMP DAGGETT 101F IN 2006 102F
HIGH MAX TEMP NEEDLES 108F IN 2006 109F
..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MAY 16 2009
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2009) 100 100 (TIED) IN 1997
FORT VALLEY (1909 - 2009) 79 79 (TIED) IN 2003
PETRIFIED FOREST (1931 - 2009) 91 90 IN 1948
...RECORD HIGH LOW TEMPERATURES FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MAY 17 2009...
CITY (PERIOD OF RECORD) NEW HIGH LOW PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
COTTONWOOD-TUZIGOOT (1977 - 2009) 61 60 IN 1997
Friday, May 15, 2009
Tropical Topics: 2009 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Opens
May 15 is the opening day of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Since many storms in this region do not threaten land, the extent of activity was not fully realized until the satellite observation era. On average, there are 15 tropical storms and 9 hurricanes per year in the North Pacific east of 140 west longitude. The list of storm names for this season is: NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATIONThe National Hurricane Center will be making several changes this season in tropical storm reporting:
-------------------------------------------------------------
ANDRES AHN DRASE- MARTY
BLANCA BLAHN- KAH NORA
CARLOS OLAF OH- LAHF
DOLORES PATRICIA
ENRIQUE ANH REE- KAY RICK
FELICIA FA LEE- SHA SANDRA
GUILLERMO GEE YER- MO TERRY
HILDA VIVIAN
IGNACIO EEG NAH- CIO WALDO
JIMENA HE MAY- NA XINA ZEE- NAH
KEVIN YORK
LINDA ZELDA ZEL- DAH
- The Tropical Weather Outlook, issued 4 times a day, will include categorical probabilities of storm development: Low (less than 30%), Medium (30-50%), High (over 50%).
- The Saffir-Simpson scale traditionally used to classify hurricane strength will be modified on an experimental basis to exclude storm surge and flooding indications. The reason for doing this is that the Saffir-Simpson scale is primarily a measure of maximum wind speed, but storm surge is affected by several other factors, such as storm size and forward speed, shape of coastline, and water depth. For example, Hurricane Ike last year made landfall as a Category 2 storm, but the storm surge was comparable to what is currently defined as a Category 4-5 storm. Emergency management officials reported that many residents refused to evacuate since the storm was "only" a Category 2 or 3 as it approached land. Likewise, Katrina (2005) had Category 3 winds at landfall, but the storm surge was equivalent to Category 5. On the other hand, Hurricane Charley (2004) had Category 4 winds but only Category 2 storm surge.
CapitalClimate provides a number of links to national, local, and international tropical storm information in the list to the left titled "Tropical Topics". Discussions of significant storms will be provided in blog posts as appropriate during the hurricane season.
Image: Eastern Pacific Tropical Outlook from National Hurricane Center.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
April 2009 5th Warmest on Record Globally
Year to Date Tied for 6th Warmest
Global
The National Climatic Data Center's preliminary analysis released today shows that global temperatures for April 2009 were the 5th warmest on record. This makes April somewhat warmer relative to average than March. For the January-April period, temperatures were tied with 2003 as the 6th warmest. The warmest regions relative to average were Mexico, the northeastern U.S., southern South America, and most of Europe and Asia. Areas with cooler than average temperatures were north central to southeastern U.S. and western Asia.
United States
For the contiguous United States overall, the average temperature was "51.2°F (10.7°C), which was 0.8°F (0.5°C) below the 20th century mean and ranked as the 36th coolest April on record, based on preliminary data." Regionally, much of the country had near average temperatures, but the West North Central region was cooler than average. The Northeast was warmer; New Hampshire had its 8th warmest April in records dating back to 1895.
NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index indicates that energy demand due to temperature was 2.3% below average.
Australia
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that a sharp cold outbreak in the final week of the month set several record lows. The reading of -13.0°C (8.6°F) on April 29 at Charlotte Pass was a new record minimum temperature for all of Australia in April. An April record for the state of Victoria of -8.2°C (17.2°F) was set at Mount Hotham. For the country as a whole, however, Australia was "slightly warmer and drier than average" in April. Although temperatures were near or below average in the population centers of the southeast, they were generally above normal elsewhere.
Europe
In the UK, the Met Office reports that monthly temperatures were above average across the whole country, "ranging from about 1.3°C above in south-west England and south Wales to about 2.3°C above in East Anglia, south-east England and northern Scotland.
The warmth extended to northern Europe, where Deutscher Wetterdienst announced that the monthly temperature for Germany of 11.8°C in April was 4.5° above average. This made April 2009 the warmest April in records dating back to 1891. Average sunshine was 62.5% above normal, making this the second sunniest April after 1951.
Images (click to enlarge):
From NCDC/NOAA:
- Global land and sea temperature departures from average for April 2009
- Historical April global land and ocean temperature departures from average
- Historical contiguous U.S. April temperature departures from average
- U.S. categorical temperature ranks for April 2009
- Average daily maximum temperature departure from average for April 2009
- UK monthly temperature departure from average for April 2009
- Average monthly temperature in Germany, April 2009
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Seasonal Outlook
Latest seasonal forecast: Click here.
Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.
Latest 3-month temperature outlook from Climate Prediction Center/NWS/NOAA.
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